The findings have been published in the first Insight Report from the TPT Retirement Solutions: DB Trustee Pulse 2026, a new series based on an independent survey of 100 UK DB pension trustees representing schemes with assets ranging in size from £100m to over £10bn+.

Pensions dashboard readiness topped the trustee agenda, cited by 38% of respondents. Evaluating endgame options ranked second and was the fast-rising priority, with 31% of trustees citing it as a major challenge, compared with 16% in 2024. Other priorities followed closely including liquidity, collateral and cashflow management (30%), staying on top of member communications and expectations (28%), and navigating market volatility / investment performance (26%), all of which ranked similarly high (see Figure One).

Taken together, the findings point to a broader capacity issue. Trustees are no longer contending with a single overriding challenge. Rather, they are having to deal with an increasingly crowded agenda that requires them to progress long-term strategic decisions while simultaneously meeting an ever-expanding range of operational and governance demands.

Compared with TPT’s 2024 DB Trustee Pulse Survey, some previously prominent challenges have eased. Notably, concerns around accessing different asset classes fell from 29% to 24%, while concerns over data quality declined from 21% to 16%, suggesting progress has been made in areas that previously required greater trustee attention.

However, for medium-to-large sized schemes with £1bn or more in assets under management, pensions dashboard readiness is the most prominent challenge, selected by 39% of trustees in this category, followed by liquidity, collateral or cashflow management needs at 33%. Scheme administration, keeping pace with regulation and asset allocation all rank close behind, each cited by 26% of trustees in this group.

Nicholas Clapp, Commercial Director, TPT Retirement Solutions, said: “For a number of years, the industry conversation was dominated by funding, de-risking and endgame planning. Those priorities have not gone away, but there is now greater recognition of the growing practical realities trustees face in overseeing a pension scheme. Dashboards, governance, data, administration and implementation projects all compete for the same time and resource.”

Katherine Lynas, Head of Consultant Relations, TPT Retirement Solutions, said: “What we are seeing is that operational complexity is becoming a strategic issue. Trustees are evaluating endgame options while also thinking about how much governance, resource and ongoing management each route requires. That's why consolidation options that provide scale and simplicity are becoming increasingly important considerations.”

For low earners who spend a particularly large portion of their working life as low earners, the study states the Lower Earnings Limit (LEL) reduces their contributions to such a degree that increased minimum contribution rates are unlikely to compensate for it. For example, at age 22, low earners are projected to have a further 16 years of low earning across their working life if they are a woman, or 8 if they are a man. Other risk factors, such as low educational qualification levels or motherhood, may increase these figures further, increasing the impact of any change to the LEL. However, for other low earners who may be at risk of poverty, any contribution may be too much, and the removal of the LEL could increase their contribution significantly.

The research also shows how the impact of fiscal drag on AE thresholds has made its current aims unclear. Eroded by inflation since the last uprating in 2014, PPI analysis shows the Earnings Trigger is now £4,300 (43%) lower in real terms, pushing employees and employers to make a greater contribution to a workplace pension. As low earners and employers face a range of cost of living and global economic pressures, the LEL is also 28% lower in real-terms, meaning a further £1,750 of employees’ earnings are now subject to a workplace pension contribution since the last 2020 uprating.(3)(4)

The analysis notes that the real-terms decrease of AE thresholds reflects an implicit assumption that low earners will opt out if it is in their best interests to do so, in order to address immediate cost of living pressures, or other factors. This is despite the AE policy mechanisms of the Earnings Trigger and the LEL being originally designed to protect against low earners failing to opt-out of saving when potentially needed, the report states. Future AE reforms that explicitly outline assumptions about the capacity of low earners to opt-out when necessary, the assessment elaborates, would help clarify the wider policy direction.

The report comes as the Second Pensions Commission considers how AE might be reformed to increase pensions adequacy, with low earners highlighted as facing particularly high adequacy risks.

Further key findings of the research series summarised in the report include:

Saving may present immediate risks to low earners who are at risk of poverty, in debt, or in precarious or unstable employment. Even relatively small contributions under current AE policy may exacerbate hardships, and some AE reforms may increase these contributions.

Many individuals will spend a significant portion of their career as low earners, so any periods of higher earnings are unlikely to provide sufficient savings for their retirement. For example, in the case of an 18 year old low earning woman who does not achieve qualifications higher than a GCSE, she is projected to spend 22 years as a low earner across her working life.(5)(6)

Some potential new policies may benefit persistent low earners, such as non-contingent employer contributions, or sidecar savings. Non-contingent employer contributions would see an employee enrolled in a pension scheme, receiving employer contributions, without having to reduce their own take home pay. Sidecar savings create a mechanism by which pension contributions would be paid in to a separate, accessible savings account first, and only when this account reached a certain size, would they be paid into a conventional, harder-to-access pension pot.

John Upton, PPI Policy Analyst and lead author of the research series, commented: “Automatic enrolment started with the assumption that low earners may not opt out by themselves and needed a degree of protection, but this assumption appears to be shifting: they are excluded from Automatic Enrolment to a degree, but as thresholds reduce with inflation, more people are gradually brought into scope. As the Second Pensions Commission seeks to improve pensions adequacy, highlighting low earners as a high risk group, it will need to find the delicate balance between working life living standards and retirement living standards for low earners. As no single policy reform may fully counter all risks, it may be necessary to make the assumptions around the capacity for saving and opting out more explicit, so that extra protections for at-risk groups may follow.”

Core CPI, which strips out volatile food and fuel prices and is monitored closely by the Bank of England, also came in at 2.6%. Price rises for goods have slowed quite markedly, but services inflation is proving stickier, falling only a little to 2.6%, above expectations. The pound initially rose before losing ground as investors assessed the conflicting signals for interest rate policy. While the fall in the headline rate is welcome news, stubbornly high core inflation, a sluggish economy and the Middle East crisis are set to keep Bank of England policymakers on alert. However, it still looks likely they'll adopt another wait-and-see stance at the meeting later this month, with an interest rate hike not fully priced in until close to the end of the year.

Policymakers will be monitoring closely how the war with Iran filters through to everyday prices. Risks to supplies are mounting again, with the effective blockage of the Strait of Hormuz remaining a chokehold as tankers are stranded in and around the waterway, while risks to other crude routes are also intensifying. Both the Red and Black Seas are fast becoming the latest flashpoints. President Trump has dashed hopes for imminent talks, threatening to ramp up attacks on Iran if Houthi rebels are drawn into the conflict and begin disrupting the Red Sea route for oil shipments. As the conflict in Ukraine rages, with drone attacks on tankers serving Russia's Caspian Pipeline Consortium on the Black Sea coast, Kazakhstan has been forced to halt crude exports through the port. Both conflicts, which look increasingly intractable given the lack of momentum behind diplomatic solutions, are threatening to choke vital energy supply routes and keep a firm floor under oil prices, raising the risk that inflationary pressures flare up once again. If they drag on, this could prove to be the low point for inflation before price pressures start building again through the second half of the year.

The new Burnham administration is trying to build a buffer against a fresh cost-of-living squeeze amid the threat of higher prices. Following yesterday's VAT cut on household electricity bills, today's £2 bus fare cap is another attempt to put money back into consumers' pockets before higher energy costs start filtering through the economy. For many households, particularly those reliant on buses to get to work, the savings will offer an immediate salve to what have become painful everyday costs. But in many ways policymakers are in a race against forces beyond their control. If conflict in the Middle East keeps oil prices simmering near recent highs, the relief offered by cheaper electricity and transport could quickly be eroded by rising fuel, freight and wider consumer costs. The cost-of-living battle may be getting a helping hand from government, but it is still likely to be fought on the global stage.''

The findings show that mutual and cooperative insurers continue to strengthen their position within the global insurance industry, achieving the highest premium volume ever recorded while maintaining more than one-quarter of the worldwide insurance market.

Key findings from the Global Mutual Market Share 2026 report include:

The report highlights the continued strength of mutual insurers in many of the world's largest insurance markets. Mutual insurers hold market shares of 40% or more in countries including the United States, France and Germany, while accounting for more than one-quarter of the insurance market in 19 countries globally.

Commenting on the findings, Liz Green, CEO of ICMIF, said: "At a time when trust is increasingly hard won, these findings demonstrate why mutual and cooperative insurers continue to be trusted to deliver for their members, customers and communities.

“The record premium income achieved in 2024 is not simply a measure of financial performance. It reflects the enduring strength of a business model built on member ownership, long-term stewardship and service rather than short-term shareholder returns. Mutual insurers continue to demonstrate that commercial success and social purpose go hand in hand.

“In an environment shaped by economic uncertainty, technological disruption and changing customer expectations, the mutual sector continues to adapt, innovate and grow while remaining focused on creating long-term value for the people and communities it serves."

While the report highlights the sector's continued strength in established insurance markets, it also points to significant opportunities for mutual and cooperative insurers to expand their presence in emerging markets, where mutual insurance currently represents just 3.0% of total insurance premiums.

The Global Mutual Market Share report is published annually by ICMIF and is recognised as the leading source of comparative data on the size, performance and contribution of the global mutual and cooperative insurance sector. Alongside market share analysis, the report examines premium income, assets, employment, membership and policyholder data across life and non-life insurance markets worldwide.

Susannah Streeter, Chief Investment Strategist, Wealth Club: “The Footsie has been on the back foot in early trade as investors keep an eye on Middle East tensions, a stronger pound puts pressure on some listed multinationals, and investors assess the Burnham administration’s policies. A slightly more resilient snapshot of the UK labour market has lifted sterling, just as the Prime Minister unveiled the first significant cost-of-living intervention of his premiership. The abolition of VAT on household electricity bills from October should provide some welcome relief for households, although it will only make a modest dent in overall energy costs, amounting to around £45 per year for a typical bill payer. Investors will now be looking beyond the immediate announcement to how further support measures can be funded while keeping the public finances on a sustainable footing.

The latest snapshot of the UK labour market highlights the difficult inheritance facing the new government. While unemployment has edged slightly lower compared with the previous quarter, suggesting employers are hanging on to staff, the rise in the claimant count underlines that many families continue to feel the squeeze. Employment has largely stalled and economic inactivity remains stubbornly elevated, pointing to an economy that's proving a little more resilient than expected but still sluggish. Sterling has nudged higher, an indication that investors are increasingly pricing in two further interest rate hikes from the Bank of England after figures showed the jobs market is holding up better than forecast.

That resilience, however, comes with a sting in the tail for the Burnham administration. If borrowing costs stay higher for longer, it will make the task of repairing the public finances while delivering further cost-of-living support even more difficult. Cutting VAT on electricity bills is a relatively inexpensive intervention compared with lifting the threshold for the first rate of income tax, but if the government wants to go further it will have to find room within already tight fiscal constraints and raise money elsewhere. Burnham's government will also need to find ways to lift productivity and coax more people back into the workforce if it wants to generate the stronger economic growth needed to relieve pressure on households and the Treasury alike.

A little more hope appears to be creeping in about the potential for negotiations to resume in the Middle East and act as a circuit breaker to escalating violence. Amid rumours that talks could restart this week, Brent crude has shifted a little lower to around $88 a barrel, and some optimism has returned to financial markets. Stocks in Asia largely lifted, with Japan's Nikkei clawing back some of its losses. But as investors assess the shifting expectations about where the conflict could go next, European indices look set for a flat start to trading.

Fractious trade policy is once again front and centre, with the US slapping 50% tariffs on some Canadian goods, underlining how brinkmanship remains a key feature of the presidency. The higher duties are set to be imposed within 30 days, in retaliation for what Trump claims is unequal treatment of US cars, dairy and alcohol. Futures markets indicate that Toronto's main exchange will open in the red, as investors react to this fresh deterioration in bilateral relations. But Prime Minister Mark Carney appears sanguine, deflecting the threats with a vow to intensify negotiations. There will be expectations that the US will roll back after some concessions are made, but it's a reminder of the Trump administration's bullish treatment of both former friends and long-time foes.

There's been a cautious welcome on markets to John Healey's appointment as Chancellor, taking control of the UK's fragile finances. Former Defence Secretary John Healey was a Treasury minister in Gordon Brown's government, and there's an expectation he'll very much be playing second fiddle to Andy Burnham when it comes to leading economic policy, singing from the same song sheet on decentralisation and backing regional industrial bases. But the immediate focus will be on the military implications of his appointment. Having resigned from government over the lack of a roadmap to meet NATO commitments of defence spending reaching 3% of GDP by 2030, attention will now turn to how quickly he might be able to find more funding to bolster the defence investment plan. Shares in military contractors BAE Systems, Rolls Royce, QinetiQ and Melrose were all higher in early trade, indicating investors expect the chancellor will be a bigger backer of defence than his predecessor. There will be cautious optimism to his appointment across the armed services. Having spent months making the case for higher military spending, Healey has a detailed understanding of the capability gaps facing the armed forces and the demands of a far more dangerous geopolitical environment. It comes at a highly timely moment, given reports of live-firing weapons exercises by a Russian warship off the Plymouth coast. The service chiefs are likely to believe they now have a Chancellor who understands their concerns more fully and may be more willing than his predecessor to set out a credible pathway towards spending 3% of GDP on defence.

However, he's also inherited responsibility for balancing the nation's books, and the question will be whether he can reconcile his long-standing support for higher military spending with the government's fiscal rules, which require debt to be falling as a share of the economy by the end of the Parliament. Finding room for defence while also funding infrastructure, social care, employment programmes and measures to boost growth could prove one of the defining challenges of his time at the Treasury.

It also puts the question of tax rises back front and centre to fund these demanding requirements, especially with the VAT cut to energy bills, with speculation about increases in capital gains tax and further changes to the top rate of income tax likely to intensify. However, investors should resist the urge to drastically alter portfolios in an attempt to get ahead of potential tax changes. History shows us that rashly switching and ditching assets based on speculation can lead to unnecessary transaction costs, trigger premature tax liabilities and, crucially, miss out on the power of long-term compounding. Timing the market is hugely difficult, and time in the market is what counts most. Nevertheless, it may be worth trimming positions which have performed spectacularly well to lock in gains. For those looking to shelter their portfolios, it is well worth exploring government-backed, tax-efficient life rafts like Venture Capital Trusts (VCTs), the Enterprise Investment Scheme (EIS), and the Seed Enterprise Investment Scheme (SEIS).”

“Burnham has inherited a difficult economic backdrop: subdued growth, stubbornly high borrowing, a sizeable national debt and rising debt-servicing costs, alongside unresolved questions over how to fund higher defence spending. The arithmetic leaves limited room for manoeuvre. Higher taxes, spending cuts, more borrowing - or some combination of the three - could all be on the table.

“That matters because the UK already has a highly progressive income tax system, with a relatively small group of higher earners shouldering a disproportionate share of the burden. Our analysis shows that someone earning £150,000 earns 3.8 times the median full-time salary yet pays more than 10 times as much in income tax."

“Frozen tax thresholds have also steadily pushed more people into higher tax bands without a corresponding improvement in their standard of living. This is particularly relevant for HENRYs - high earners, not rich yet - who may look affluent on paper but are often juggling hefty mortgages, childcare costs, pension contributions and other financial commitments.

“So, while the government may want to pursue a different economic strategy, the question is how much more pressure can be placed on the same relatively narrow group of taxpayers. The key issue is not simply whether taxes will rise, but who will ultimately be expected to pay for Burnham’s economic agenda - and whether those already carrying a disproportionate share of the burden have much more capacity left.”

Hannah English, Head of DC Corporate, Hymans Robertson (member of the consortium), says:“From an employer perspective, the how matters as much as the how much. A clear roadmap will be vital. Long lead times and gradual escalation will be essential. Reform must also be simple to operate as complexity creates cost, compliance risk and confusion. Employers are more likely to engage positively if the direction of travel is clear and the system is hard to get wrong. Most importantly, adequacy is not just a pensions issue. It is a workforce issue. Better pensions can support financial resilience, workforce planning and productivity. They help people make better decisions about when and how they retire. Higher contributions are likely to be part of the solution, but they are not the whole answer. Every pound saved needs to work harder through strong value for money, effective investment and better retirement support. There’s no cost-free route to higher retirement incomes. This report from the IFS makes it clear that the question for the Second Pensions Commission is how to improve outcomes while balancing affordability for workers, employers and the Exchequer. If pension reform gets those things right, it can become a success not just for savers, but for employers and the wider economy too.”

Catherine Foot, Director of the Standard Life Centre for the Future of Retirement said: "The Pensions Commission's interim report rightly highlighted the scale of the retirement savings challenge facing millions of workers. Automatic enrolment has transformed pension participation, but current minimum contribution levels are unlikely to deliver adequate retirement incomes for many people, making further reform essential. Today's report reinforces the case for action. It shows that higher pension contributions and broader pension coverage could help significantly more people achieve adequate retirement incomes, particularly younger generations who have longer to benefit from reforms. In particular it correctly highlights the earnings thresholds limit the amount people save and potentially give them a false sense they are saving more than they are. We believe the long-term ambition should be to remove these limits and increase minimum contributions from 8% to 12%, delivered through a clear, phased and affordable roadmap. At the same time, reforms must recognise that people's financial circumstances change throughout their working lives. Any package should balance better retirement outcomes with the financial pressures households face today. Policymakers should therefore explore greater flexibility within the system, including temporary opt-down or pause mechanisms, allowing people facing short-term financial pressures to remain engaged with pension saving rather than opting out altogether. By combining higher contributions, broader coverage and greater flexibility, we can build on the success of automatic enrolment and create a system that improves retirement outcomes while remaining realistic about the challenges many households and employers face today."

IFS Retirement Savings Consortium Report

“Inheritance Tax continues to generate historically high tax revenues for the Treasury as frozen thresholds and rising asset values bring more families within scope of the tax. The Autumn Budget 2025 extended the threshold freeze until 2031, while the scope of IHT continues to expand following reforms to Business Property Relief that came into effect on 6 April 2026 and with unused pension pots set to fall within the scope of Inheritance Tax from April 2027. While these measures are increasing tax receipts, it is making the UK a less competitive destination for entrepreneurs, investors and internationally mobile wealthy individuals, who make an outsized contribution to the tax take.”

PSIG supports the aim of reducing unnecessary delays and friction where transfers are low risk. However, the group has identified several areas where further clarity and refinement are needed, including the proposed employment link warning sign, the approach to identifying lower-risk receiving schemes, oversight of SSAS arrangements, and ensuring the regulations remain effective as scam methods continue to evolve.

PSIG Chair Margaret Snowdon OBE said: “The key challenge will be getting the balance right - removing unnecessary delays for legitimate transfers while maintaining the protections needed to prevent fraud and protect savers. Members should not face unnecessary delays when making genuine transfers, but trustees and administrators must retain the ability to identify risks and act when something does not look right.

“The proposed employment link warning sign is an important area where we believe changes are needed. As currently drafted, it may not always work as intended. A genuine employee could trigger a warning sign because they do not meet certain salary or contribution thresholds, while someone without a genuine employment link may avoid the same scrutiny by providing only partial evidence. We recommend that a red flag should apply wherever the employment link remains unproven, whether all, some or none of the required evidence has been provided.

“We also support giving trustees greater discretion where they believe a transfer is low risk, but there needs to be greater clarity around the proposed concept of a ‘reputable scheme’. Trustees should be able to carry out further due diligence where they consider it necessary, without first having to make a potentially subjective judgement about a scheme’s reputation.”

Snowdon continued: “The risks facing pension savers continue to evolve. We are seeing increasing use of impersonation fraud, clone firms, artificial intelligence-generated evidence, social media investment scams, crypto-linked pension liberation and newly established occupational schemes with little or no genuine employment activity. The regulatory framework needs to keep pace with these developments. The employment link alone will not address the wider vulnerabilities in the SSAS market. We support proportionate additional oversight of these arrangements, including consideration of a requirement for professional trustee involvement.

“We also need to ensure that any approach to lower-risk scheme lists is properly governed, regularly reviewed and supported by clear accountability, while recognising the practical challenges and responsibilities involved in maintaining them. The proposed exemption from repeat MoneyHelper guidance also needs careful consideration. While it may be appropriate where a member’s circumstances have not changed and the guidance remains relevant, a subsequent transfer could involve a different receiving scheme, different warning signs or a materially different level of risk. The regulations should ensure that members receive appropriate guidance and safeguards where the circumstances and risks warrant it.”

Snowdon concluded: “Ultimately, these reforms could help deliver a faster and more effective transfer process. But the test of success is not simply whether transfers happen more quickly, it is whether they can happen safely. Legitimate members should not face unnecessary barriers, but fraudsters should not be given new opportunities to exploit the system -make it easier for good transfers to proceed and harder for bad actors to succeed.”

That’s according to Gallagher’s CDC Report, which examines industry confidence levels, the barriers to implementation and the path to scale for CDC pension schemes in the UK.

The research, which surveyed 250 employers, trustees and pensions professionals, arrives at a time when multi-employer CDC schemes are nearing regulatory approval in the UK.

Interest in the CDC model is growing, with around half of respondents (52%) saying they would be comfortable being an early adopter.

The findings indicate that larger employers may be better placed to assess CDC at this stage. Beyond the natural barrier of cost, they are more likely to have specialist pensions support and strong internal governance structures. Smaller companies may face greater barriers around governance capacity and internal resource.

Notably, many organisations are hesitant to move first when it comes to adopting CDC. When asked what would increase their confidence, respondents cited clearer regulatory guidance (39%), proven results from early adopters (38%) and positive feedback from unions or employee representatives (37%).

Andre Clarke, Senior Vice President, Investment Consulting at Gallagher, said: “In a very short period, the conversation around CDC has moved forward at blinding speed. The Royal Mail scheme gave the UK market its first live example. It is no longer possible to think of CDC as a niche actuarial idea; it is stepping into the spotlight, demanding close attention.”

“However, our research paints a more nuanced picture. There’s a clear difference between exploring CDC as an option and taking the steps to introduce it into an existing benefits package. Employers and trustees want to see more test cases, and they want greater clarity on regulation and delivery. Then they want to understand what it really means for their specific workforce. It is here where an experienced consultant can help firms assess their options in the CDC market and decide which arrangements could suit their workforce best.”

Sector-wide arrangements also saw significant interest, with 86% saying they would find a sector-wide CDC scheme appealing. The findings point to a preference for scalable CDC models that can be put into action across a broader range of organisations.

The largest group (36%) see both models as equally appealing, suggesting many organisations are open-minded about how CDC could be delivered in practice and recognise that their roles are not mutually exclusive.

David Piltz, CEO of Gallagher's Benefits & HR Consulting Division, says: “For decades, employers and pension professionals have struggled with one question: how can we offer good retirement outcomes for employees without putting too much risk on the balance sheet? A Collective Defined Contribution scheme offers a potential alternative. It is an aspirational model, and one that could offer more predictable outcomes than a traditional Defined Contribution scheme and without the high-risk guarantees of a Defined Benefit plan.

“The challenge is converting that interest into adoption. If a firm is unsure about CDC, it’s likely due to a mix of factors: a low number of test cases, competing business priorities, and a hesitance to step out first. The science, regulations, and guidance are in place, but the industry needs to communicate CDC in a way that everyone can understand. That is the only way that the sector will translate the growing interest into this emerging area into real and tangible action.”

“The prize is significant. Based on LCP analysis, we estimate that FTSE 100 companies with UK DB schemes currently each have an average surplus of around £500 million. That represents a substantial pool of capital that could be put to productive use while maintaining strong member security. The next step must be meaningful engagement with industry, so that reforms are workable in practice and deliver good overall outcomes. ”

Laura Amin, LCP Partner and Head of DB Consolidation, commented: “Although it was disappointing to see earlier this week the delay in the timeframe for delivering draft superfund regulations to Q1 next year, we expect the government will want to drive forward delivering the new rules. Their focus should be on creating a viable superfund market which works effectively for providers, their investors, trustees and sponsors and which can deliver attractive solutions for members with suitable long-term protections in place.

“With at least three new superfunds seeking assessment this year, we expect more superfunds to be operating from next year. This will mean greater competition with increased choice for trustees and sponsors as they consider the best long-term solution for their schemes.”

Charlie Finch, Partner in LCP’s Pension Risk Transfer team, commented: “The Pension Schemes Act has laid the foundations for greater innovation through surplus-sharing and a permanent superfund regime. The priority now must be implementing these reforms in a practical way to give trustees and sponsors a range of viable endgame options.

“It’s also pleasing to see wider industry innovation such as the “sponsor swap” solution where Stagecoach transferred their £1.2bn scheme to Aberdeen – the recent Ministerial statement rightly supported such innovation and we would encourage any regulatory intervention to be considered carefully to ensure an appropriate balance between facilitating innovation and maintaining suitable guardrails to protect members.

“At the same time, policymakers need to recognise the enormous success of the UK buy-in market, with the insurance regime providing robust long-term security at highly competitive pricing for schemes of all sizes. This will continue to be the endgame solution of choice for many schemes. The policy objective should not be to favour one approach over another, but to create a stable framework where insurance, superfunds, run-on and other innovative strategies can all flourish, giving trustees the confidence to choose the option that best meets their members' needs.

“Getting that balance right will be critical if the UK is to unlock the full potential of the £1 trillion plus of DB pension assets and create one of the world's most innovative and competitive pension endgame markets.”

Jon Forsyth, LCP Partner and Head of Pensions Developments commented: “There is a huge amount on Trustees’ and sponsors’ agendas, and some very important strategic decisions for them to make and changes to implement. On the DB side alone, we have major developments on surplus and endgame, more to come from DWP and TPR on Trusteeship, a way forward on the Virgin Media issue, PPF regulations to come, and changes to inheritance tax with additional administrative requirements. And that’s before we add the ongoing Pensions Commission and the big challenges with pensions adequacy, plus of course the myriad developments in DC and CDC.

“There are great opportunities to improve things for schemes, members, and sponsors, and we very much support the government pushing ahead with the current reforms. But it is equally important to take a long-term view when it comes to pensions policy, and to consult meaningfully with industry on any future changes. Working towards a more stable, long-term policy framework for pensions should be the name of the game.”

While higher earners would need to save broadly the same cash amount, the impact on affordability is very different. Someone earning £80,000 would still need to save around £74 a month, but because of their higher income and greater tax relief, this equates to around 1.1% of salary, compared with 2.3% for someone on median earnings.

Once pension tax relief is taken into account, the impact on take-home pay falls to around £53 a month (1.7% of salary) for the median earner using salary sacrifice, compared with £43 a month (0.6% of salary) for an £80,000 earner.

Martin Willis, Partner at Barnett Waddingham, part of Howden, said: "People have understandably focused on the £12,500 they'd need to replace if they still wanted to retire at 67. But for many households, the more immediate question is what it means for their monthly finances. Our modelling suggests a typical 55-year-old on average earnings would need to find around an extra £74 every month - and if that's difficult for someone on average earnings, it'll be even harder for those on lower incomes.

"Everyone loses broadly the same year's State Pension, but replacing it isn't equally affordable. The cash amount may be similar, but it takes a much bigger bite out of the budget for someone on average earnings than it does for a higher earner. That's why giving people plenty of notice of any changes is so important."

"This also assumes people will continue working and contributing to their pension until they retire, although for some that might not be realistic. Whether because of ill health, caring responsibilities or physical demands of their job and anyone hoping to retire earlier or reduce their hours will have even less time to plug the gap. Even relatively small increases to pension contributions can make a meaningful difference if they're made early enough, whereas leaving it until the final years before retirement makes catching up far more difficult."

The findings come at a pivotal moment for CDC, as the Government looks to expand the framework beyond single and connected employer schemes to enable both unconnected multi-employer schemes (UMES) and retirement-only CDC arrangements.

Andrew Worthington, partner at Sackers commented: “The survey suggests that the biggest challenge facing CDC today isn’t necessarily the model itself but rather familiarity with how it works. As a new approach for the UK pensions market, building confidence will take time, like any innovation. It's also notable that many respondents highlighted the possibility that retirement income could reduce as a key concern. In practice, retirement incomes under DC are already uncertain, fluctuating with market performance and individual decisions.

"CDC has the potential to become an important third option alongside DB and DC. It gives employers certainty over contribution costs while giving members the benefits of collective investment, risk pooling and the prospect of a more predictable retirement income than many individuals can achieve through traditional DC arrangements."

Worthington added: "Similar CDC models have been operating successfully overseas for many years, demonstrating that they can deliver good outcomes for both employers and members. The UK now has the opportunity to build on that experience, but continued government support, practical regulation and increased real life experience will all be essential if CDC is to fulfil its potential.

“Recent government announcements mark important progress towards wider adoption. They have listened to industry concerns about implementation and announced a possible easement to the new guided retirement proposals where schemes are actively considering retirement CDC as their default option. This momentum will need to continue as CDC cannot succeed through single employer demand alone; it needs policy leadership to build confidence and encourage wider adoption. The additional flexibility being introduced to help new UMES CDC schemes navigate the authorisation process should also support innovation while maintaining appropriate safeguards. Supporting employers, trustees and advisers as they consider whether CDC is right for their circumstances will be important in helping to build confidence in the model.”

Brent crude has set off on a hot streak, trading around $90 a barrel as military action has intensified between the US and Iran. That’s an increase of 30% from lows seen earlier in the month. Already the latest attacks have expanded beyond military targets, with bridges, utilities, and port facilities coming under attack, and the countdown is on to an even wider escalation, given that President Trump has vowed to increase attacks on Iranian infrastructure on Wednesday. This could trigger further retaliation, ensnaring the region in an even more complex situation. Iran has called on Houthi rebels to close the Bab el-Mandeb strait on the Red Sea oil route if the US carries out its threat. The conflict appears to be becoming more fractious by the day, and with Iranian forces launching fresh attacks on what it considers to be US allies across the region, restoring longer-term stability looks to be an ambition increasingly out of reach.

Markets are still clinging to the hope that political pressure could eventually push President Trump towards a deal. Operation Epic Fury has become increasingly unpopular at home, and with the midterm elections on the horizon, there are expectations that the White House will look for an exit ramp. But Trump has built much of his leadership around projecting strength, and with Iran using the Strait of Hormuz as leverage, any sign of retreat risks looking like weakness. For now, that may make a negotiated settlement harder to achieve.

Research just out from EY-Parthenon shows that profit alerts in the UK from travel and leisure firms have hit their highest level for nearly four years, amid the fallout from the Iran conflict. Once again, travel firms and housebuilders have sold off today as the escalation in the war looks set to dent their prospects. Airlines have flown lower in early trade, amid worries about bigger fuel bills and fresh disruption to key routes around the Middle East. Travellers have already shown more reluctance to book early, given the uncertainty surrounding the repercussions of the conflict on budgets and travel plans.

Ryanair's results show just how quickly nervousness surrounding the war has seeped into booking patterns and operational costs. Its profit has slumped by a third due to higher fuel costs and the reticence of passengers to book holidays as war rages in the Middle East and cost-of-living pressures mount across Europe. It's a sign that consumers are once again tightening their belts and delaying discretionary spending, leaving airlines exposed not just to soaring jet fuel costs but also the prospect of softer demand. If the conflict drags on through the peak summer season, pressure on earnings across the travel sector looks set to intensify.

Housebuilders are in the red, as investors brace for higher interest rates, with energy prices set to ramp up again. There had been hopes that the recent spike in energy prices would continue to be blunted. Wednesday's CPI figures are expected to show inflation easing slightly from May's 2.8% annual rate. But any relief may prove short-lived given this escalation in the Middle East, which is likely to feed through into fuel, transport and business costs over the coming months. With the respite from higher inflation looking increasingly fleeting, interest rate expectations have shifted again, with at least two rate hikes now being priced in by financial markets. This will have yet another effect on affordability and is likely to keep more buyers on the sidelines. With housebuilders facing fewer reservations and the prospect of higher costs on construction sites, it's not surprising shareholders have become increasingly uneasy.

With living costs looking set to rise again, it's piling yet more demands onto Andy Burnham's towering in-tray. He's already promised a breathing space for households from painful increases in everyday bills, but it's far from clear where the funding will come from. Government borrowing costs have shifted higher again due to rising inflationary concerns and expectations of further interest rate increases. But there is also wariness on bond markets about the future path of government policy as Burnham prepares to unveil his top team. Current Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood, the frontrunner to be Chancellor, is considered to be a relatively safe pair of hands given her previous role as shadow chief secretary to the Treasury. However, there are still significant concerns swirling about the impact of an increase in capital gains tax, which she is believed to support, given that it risks quashing the entrepreneurial spirit the UK needs to harness to boost growth.

But eyes will be on other key Cabinet roles too, particularly who will lead the Ministry of Defence, given the challenge ahead for the UK's armed forces in dealing with heightened threats on a more limited budget than required to meet the demands of the Strategic Defence Review.

The future of Thames Water is also looming over the new administration, threatening to become one of its first major economic tests. It's rapidly becoming a measure of how Andy Burnham intends to balance protecting taxpayers, reassuring investors and delivering on promises to clean up Britain's waterways.

A consortium representing around 100 institutional investors holding £17 billion of Thames Water's debt has offered to write off almost half of what it's owed and inject more than £3 billion of fresh capital. On paper it looks like a significant concession, but the creditors want something in return, and that’s greater protection from future pollution penalties to improve the company's long-term finances.

That's set to prove highly challenging given that river and sea pollution has become one of the most toxic issues in British politics. Environment Secretary Emma Reynolds is understood to be deeply sceptical that easing the regulatory burden is an acceptable price to pay. From the government's perspective there's little appetite to be seen rewarding the very investors who helped finance years of under-investment, particularly when households are still facing rising bills.

This is fast becoming a test case for how the new government intends to treat private capital in regulated industries. If ministers are seen to take too hard a line, future investors may think twice before financing Britain's ageing infrastructure. But strike too generous a deal and the government risks accusations that taxpayers are once again underwriting the consequences of private sector failure. It's a balancing act which could shape confidence in UK infrastructure investment well beyond the water sector.”

The outsized might of chip stars on indices has been causing these waves of turbulence as sentiment has begun to sour after their breathtaking climbs upwards. Results from TSMC, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, appear to have triggered this latest sell-off, which has spread to other big names in the sector. Even though the world's biggest contract chipmaker once again demonstrated that demand remains exceptionally strong, investors have become increasingly concerned about the sheer scale of spending by hyperscalers and the risks associated with deploying such vast sums into technology evolving at breakneck speed. The world's biggest contract chipmaker reported a whopping 61% year-on-year increase in second-quarter net profit, but also highlighted plans to invest US$100 billion in expanding advanced chip manufacturing capacity in the United States. While the huge scale of this commitment highlights management's confidence that demand from customers such as Nvidia, AMD and Apple will remain strong for years to come, concerns are brewing about whether these assets will remain technologically competitive long enough to generate attractive returns to justify the spend. Given the rapid pace of innovation in AI chips and computing architecture, there is a risk that equipment could become outdated, forcing operators to replace it sooner than expected. With the infrastructure build-out phase taking longer than some anticipated and returns further off on the horizon, it’s prompting a rethink about how much investors are willing to pay for companies exposed to the AI supply chain.

Investors are also increasingly wary about the prospects of another flashpoint emerging in the Middle East, which could further snarl up energy supplies. Tehran's call on Houthi rebels to be on standby to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the key Red Sea oil route, should the US attack Iranian infrastructure, adds yet another layer of geopolitical risk to an already fragile energy market. Brent crude, the benchmark, is oscillating around the $84-85 level, up around 12% on the week and hovering at one-month highs. There remain expectations that some kind of deal will be reached, especially with the US inching closer to the mid-term elections, when gas prices will be a hot topic on the campaign trail. But it’s clear that what was intended by the Trump administration to be a decisive and successful short-term campaign has been anything but. The conflict has opened up a can of worms when it comes to the control of key waterways in the region, highlighting how easily strategic maritime chokepoints can become geopolitical leverage points, threatening global energy supplies, disrupting trade flows and fuelling volatility across commodity markets.

Netflix results have also served as a reminder that, after a prolonged rally in growth stocks, strong results alone are no longer enough to satisfy investors. While the streaming giant delivered a 9% increase in second-quarter profit and 13% revenue growth, its slightly lower-than-expected revenue outlook for the current quarter was a disappointment, especially in an environment where investors have got used to blockbuster earnings. Shares dipped sharply in after-hours trade as questions mount about where the next spurt of growth will come from, especially after Netflix was pipped to the post by Paramount in the battle for Warner Bros.’ streaming assets. Concerns are creeping in about where growth will come from and that the company will depend increasingly on price increases, hard won advertising revenues and incremental subscriber gains rather than transformational move. However, the twists in Paramount's own takeover story are a reminder that the strategy of buying growth prospects can come with plenty of problems. What initially looked like a missed opportunity for Netflix has become a far more complicated picture, with Paramount's proposed deal now facing a federal antitrust lawsuit brought by 12 US states as well as regulatory scrutiny in the UK. While Netflix may have lost the bidding war, it may also have avoided years of legal wrangling and regulatory scrutiny. If the Paramount-Warner Bros saga becomes even more bogged down, investors may ultimately conclude that discipline rather than deal-making was the wiser course.

Burberry revealed a chequered update, putting its best foot forward in key markets like the US and China, but has had to turn its collar up against the inclement spending conditions caused by conflict in the Middle East. Even though the turnaround strategy under CEO Joshua Schulman is showing signs of progress, the results show that the luxury market is far from immune to the forces swirling around the global economy. Sales across Europe, the Middle East and Africa fell 3%, showing just how quickly sales can evaporate when tensions rise. Luxury retailers have become increasingly dependent on the wealthy tourists traipsing through major shopping hubs, from London and Paris to Milan and Monaco, and with so many routes disrupted due to the conflict, shopping trips have been fewer and far between. This is partly why the stock has fallen back in early trade by 3.5%, despite overall comparable store sales rising 5% in the April to June quarter. A rebound in fortunes in the US and China helped move the dial. Burberry has been particularly successful in the American market, where sales surged 12%. Brand elevation has been key, but Burberry is also likely to have been benefiting from increased wealth perceptions among well-heeled US shoppers, whose fortunes are so closely intertwined with stock market valuations. The heady heights reached by big tech have bolstered trading accounts and, as profits have been booked, some will be channelled into must-have goods. But there are risks ahead, especially if volatility continues, as the current tech stars see more of a swipe taken at valuations. That leaves Burberry balancing on a tricky catwalk right now. While its underlying recovery appears to be gathering momentum, helped by a revitalised brand focus and improving demand in key markets, luxury spending is ultimately built on confidence, which risks being increasingly tested.”

Using current income tax rates, Rathbones calculates that someone earning the median full-time salary of £39,039 would pay around £5,294 in income tax each year. By comparison, an individual earning £150,000 would pay £53,703.

In other words, a £150,000 earner receives 3.8 times the income of a median full-time worker, yet pays more than 10 times as much income tax.

Over four years, someone earning £150,000 would pay more than £214,800 in income tax — roughly the same amount of income tax a median full-time worker would pay over 40 years. The calculation* excludes National Insurance.

The pattern is evident further down the income scale. Rathbones estimates that someone earning £120,000 would pay around 7.45 times as much income tax as a median earner, while an individual earning £80,000 would pay approximately 3.67 times as much.

Jay Lawrence, Investment Director at Rathbones, says: “The UK has a highly progressive income tax system that relies heavily on a relatively small group of higher earners. At the same time, inflation and frozen tax thresholds have steadily chipped away at the real-world value of a six-figure salary. Many people are finding themselves pushed into higher tax bands without experiencing a corresponding improvement in their standard of living.

"This is particularly true for HENRYs — high earners, not rich yet. On paper, they may appear affluent, but many are balancing large mortgages, childcare costs, pension contributions and other financial commitments.”

The findings highlight the extent to which the UK's progressive income tax system - meaning those with higher incomes pay a larger share of their earnings in tax - relies on higher earners. According to HMRC*, the top 10% of income taxpayers contribute more than 60% of all income tax receipts, while the top 1% account for 29%.

Jay Lawrence says: "The rapid growth in the number of higher-rate taxpayers suggests that what was once considered a very high income is increasingly becoming part of the mainstream professional workforce."

The analysis also suggests a wealth tax could cost the government around £600 million to establish, while imposing ongoing compliance and administrative costs on taxpayers of £700 million a year or more.

Administrative complexity has been a key factor behind the abolition of wealth taxes in many countries and was one reason why the Labour government of the 1970s, despite pledging to introduce a wealth tax, ultimately did not proceed with one.

Jay Lawrence says: “Many of our clients are concerned that they could bear a growing share of the tax burden as the government looks to fund its spending commitments while operating within tight fiscal constraints.

"We have encountered highly paid professionals who are reviewing their long-term tax position, including the possibility of relocating to more tax-efficient jurisdictions, and the introduction of a wealth tax risks creating similar questions for entrepreneurs.

"If policies result in highly skilled workers, entrepreneurs and investors choosing to leave the UK, that risks undermining the government's broader objectives of boosting growth, attracting investment and improving the country's long-term economic prospects."

The analysis from CRIF – a global leader in credit and insurance information, analytics and solutions – reveals that UK drivers remain some of the most hesitant in Europe to use the insurance policies they are paying for.

The proportion of UK motor insurance policyholders worried about making a claim is above the European average of 31% and significantly higher than countries like Italy (18%). Only Ireland reported higher concerns (41%), putting UK drivers among the most concerned about insurance on the continent.

The findings build on CRIF’s research from last year, which found a third (33%) of UK policyholders felt motor insurance has become the most expensive it has ever been. Recent analysis from Defaqto found that motor insurance prices have started rising again after two years of falls, while data from the ABI highlights factors such as the cost of repairs having also increased.

As a result, just 13% of policyholders actually feel that the cost of insurance has stabilised or started to fall, according to CRIF’s data, while around a third (32%) say that motor cover still feels expensive, explaining the ongoing anxiety over insurance among UK drivers.

Motor insurance is now the most widely held form of insurance among UK adults (59%), ahead of home (53%) and home contents insurance (51%). Yet 39% of UK policyholders say that insurance costs, combined with recent rises in fuel costs, are together making driving unaffordable.

In response, more than four in ten (43%) policyholders want insurers to do more to improve premiums, specifically increasing their affordability and consistency. Almost a third (31%) say that insurers need to be clearer and more transparent about pricing and terms, while a quarter (25%) say they would be willing to share more of their data with insurers if it unlocked more affordable premiums.

Sara Costantini, Regional Director for the UK and Ireland at CRIF, said: “UK drivers are continuing to feel the squeeze on getting from A to B. With premium costs about to rise again, motorists are still feeling the pressure, to an extent that many are seriously concerned about having to claim on the cover they actually pay for.

“This is putting a major strain on the relationship between insurers and their customers, especially for a type of cover they cannot easily go without. This makes it all the more important that insurers rebuild confidence as part of efforts to get premium costs down.

“Smarter use of data and analytics can help achieve this, enabling insurers to price more accurately, identify financial stress earlier and give drivers the clearer, fairer motor insurance they are asking for.”

The research findings form part of CRIF’s 2026 Banking on Banks report series. The first report, launched in June, looks at the biggest financial pressures currently facing European consumers and businesses. The second report, due to be published later this year, will look at the financial services gap between consumers and businesses.

were disguised as a consumer posting on social media recommending a website to look up agreements. However, the advert failed to make clear it was a financial promotion for a CMC that was recommending its own website.

were using the FCA motor finance redress scheme in a misleading way to promote the firm’s own services which could suggest an affiliation with the FCA.

failed to clearly highlight free claim options and the FCA’s redress scheme.

promoted claims management services when not authorised to do so.

The FCA also agreed to voluntary requirements (VREQs) with two firms, securing agreement that they would stop or change their marketing activities. This brings the total number of VREQs to 12 in relation to a range of motor finance claims activities over the last 12 months. The FCA also issued 8 alerts in June against unauthorised firms promoting regulated claims management activities without the necessary authorisation.

Alongside this, the Advertising Standards Authority (ASA) has launched investigations into various motor finance claims ads placed by law firms. It is scrutinising a range of issues including clarity around fees, the ability to claim for free via other routes, potentially exaggerated compensation amounts and consumers being potentially misled by ‘free checker’ tools.

Alison Walters, Director of Consumer Finance at the FCA, said: “Consumers should be able to trust the information they see about car finance claims. Too often, we are still seeing promotions that obscure key facts, create unnecessary pressure on consumers to sign up, or risk misleading people about their options.”

Miles Lockwood, Director of Complaints and Investigations at the ASA, said: “The work of the taskforce is important, consumers should be treated fairly and be confident that the claims they see in ads for car finance schemes are transparent and truthful. Our investigations will root out problem claims, set clear lines in the sand for advertisers and trigger follow-up enforcement action where necessary.”

Part of a wider programme of work that focuses on financial ads, the ASA is harnessing its AI-based Active Ad Monitoring system to monitor ad claims at pace and scale to identify and tackle potential problems.

Joint taskforce members are continuing to take action against misconduct by CMCs and law firms that goes beyond misleading adverts. This could lead to further action against firms.

Advice to consumers

Using a CMC or law firm to make a car finance claim may mean paying fees of over 30% of any compensation.

If you haven’t yet complained about car finance and you have concerns, you can complain directly to your lender for free – there is information on the FCA website, including the contact details for lenders.

If you have concerns about how you were signed up to a CMC or law firm, whether you were properly informed and gave consent, how your data was used, the handling of your case, or the fee charged to exit your contract, you should complain directly to the firm. The FCA has created a template letter to help.

Avoid signing up with multiple claims firms, as this could result in paying multiple fees.

Since then, PSIG has strengthened its foundations, putting in place a more sustainable framework to support its future role and impact across the pensions industry. This includes a new supporter model, moving away from a structure reliant on privately funded volunteer support and inviting contributions from organisations that share its commitment to protecting pension savers and strengthening industry collaboration.

A key part of PSIG’s next phase is also an updated Code of Good Practice, with publication currently planned for October*. The updated Code will provide refreshed guidance for organisations working to prevent pension scams and help promote greater consistency in identifying and responding to emerging risks across the sector.

PSIG Chair Margaret Snowdon said: “Pension fraud continues to have a devastating impact on savers, with criminals constantly adapting their tactics to exploit vulnerabilities and undermine confidence in retirement provision. PSIG was established to help the industry respond to this challenge, and our purpose remains as important today as it was when we began.

“This relaunch represents an important stage in PSIG’s development. It reflects the strength of the organisation’s work to date, while ensuring we have the structure, resources and tools needed to support the industry in the years ahead. The updated Code of Good Practice will be central to this, providing practical guidance and helping organisations across the sector maintain high standards in protecting savers.”

Snowdon continued: “Protecting retirement savings requires ongoing collaboration, shared knowledge and a willingness to respond to new threats as they emerge. Our ambition is to continue bringing the industry together, supporting good practice and helping create a pensions system where savers can have greater confidence that their money is protected.”

PSIG will continue to play a leading role in the TPR-led Pension Scams Action Group and will expand its focus on emerging scam risks, industry research and sharing good practice across the sector. Further details, including PSIG’s updated mission statement and impact framework, are available on its new website.

* subject to the timing of the Department for Work and Pensions’ regulations following its consultation on amendments to pension transfer regulations, which closes on 21 July.

To achieve the vision TPR will focus on delivering the greatest impact for members across three areas: raising governance standards, driving value for money, and improving sustainable outcomes at retirement.

And to help schemes navigate the coming years against the backdrop of the Pension Schemes Act 2026 reshaping the market, a new roadmap outlines when industry will need to engage, comply and deliver for members.

Today’s suite of publications provides a clear line of sight for the industry on TPR’s priorities and expectations, providing a ‘no surprises’ approach so industry understands what TPR will be focusing on and when:

Emma Douglas, Chair of TPR, said: “We are moving towards a system of fewer, larger, well-run schemes, able to invest in diverse assets in the interests of members, and potentially the UK economy.

“As the market consolidates and evolves, our role is not simply to respond to change but to actively shape it. We will set clear direction, working closely with the FCA, DWP and industry partners, use our regulatory powers with intent, and influence how the market develops so that scale and innovation are harnessed in service of better member outcomes.”

Nausicaa Delfas, Chief Executive of TPR, said: "Our full focus is on ensuring that people receive what matters most: a sustainable income in retirement. Our new strategy and plan set out our blueprint to protect, enhance and support innovation and growth across the whole pensions journey, from saving through to retirement. This marks a significant departure from TPR’s previous strategy which centred on the accumulation phase, and is the latest demonstration of our move towards system-wide and outcome-focused regulation.”

TPR’s new Corporate Plan sets out the detail of how TPR will deliver on its vision of a sustainable income in retirement over the next year with a focus on:

The research also highlights a stark generational divide. More than half (55%) of 18- to 24-year-olds say they have had no interaction with their pension provider in the last 12 months – more than double the proportion of those aged 55 and over (23%). This lower level of engagement is reflected in confidence levels, with a third (34%) of younger adults saying they do not know whether they trust pension providers and 42% unsure whether their pension will enable them to live comfortably in retirement.

At the other end of the spectrum, older savers are far more engaged with their pensions. Almost half (48%) of those aged 55 and over describe their most recent interaction with their pension provider as positive – the highest of any age group. Yet this greater engagement is not necessarily translating into greater confidence, with four in ten (40%) saying they do not believe their pension will provide a comfortable retirement.

Taken together, the findings suggest that while trust in the pensions industry continues to edge upwards overall, uncertainty remains a significant challenge. For younger savers, that uncertainty appears alongside lower levels of engagement, while for those approaching retirement it centres on whether they have saved enough to achieve the retirement they expect.

Daniel Taylor, Client Director at Trafalgar House, said: “The findings highlight an important distinction between trust and confidence. It is possible for trust in the industry to improve while many savers still feel uncertain about their own retirement position. This matters because trust is one of the conditions that enables people to take action. If savers lack confidence, feel unsure or fear making the wrong decision, they are more likely to disengage or defer decisions about their retirement.

"The generational differences are particularly telling. If younger savers are waiting until later in life to engage with their pensions, the industry risks missing valuable opportunities to build understanding and confidence. At the same time, older savers are engaging but are looking for reassurance that they are on track.

"The answer is not simply more communication; it is better communication. Trust is built when savers receive information they can rely on, in a form they can understand and use. Accuracy, clarity and relevance are what help turn communication into confidence, and confidence into action.”

The Strait of Hormuz is once again a dangerous flashpoint and fast becoming a highly expensive one. For weeks, speculation has swirled about Iran imposing tolls, and now the US has jumped into the fray, demanding hefty payments from nations using the Strait. President Trump has called for a 20% reimbursement on cargoes transiting the waterway, although he did not specify whether this would be based on the value of the cargo, shipping costs or another measure, leaving big questions over how such a levy could be implemented. It could also lead to fresh political fractures between the US and its allies in the Gulf, given that their shipments look set to be targeted in return for the US helping to secure shipping lanes. Given that the Strait had been toll-free before the latest escalation, and that the current stand-off has been intensified by the recent exchange of strikes between the US and Iran, there's likely to be growing frustration at this turn of events. For now, the UAE is directing its anger towards Iran, particularly after overnight attacks on tankers, but diplomatic fault lines could quickly emerge if Gulf nations are presented with a hefty bill for US protection, potentially souring relations with some of Washington's closest regional allies.

Trump's foreign policy looks increasingly counterproductive. Not only has the confrontation with Iran pushed up energy prices and threatened a vital shipping artery, but efforts to curb Beijing's export machine also appear to be falling short. China's trade surplus widened to $125.62 billion in June from $105.43 billion in May, making it among the largest monthly surpluses on record. Exports have revved up another gear, surging 27% from a year earlier as strong demand for technology products, alongside a rush to beat looming tariff deadlines, helped power shipments. It also underlines how China has forged stronger trading relationships with countries around the world, helping to cushion the impact of Washington's trade offensive. Imports also surged, suggesting efforts by Beijing to stimulate domestic demand are beginning to bear fruit, with consumer subsidies, easier monetary policy and increased infrastructure spending helping to lift activity.

Inflationary pressures are beginning to build again, with oil and gas prices shooting higher just as investors prepare for the latest snapshot of US consumer prices. Unease is also showing up in bond markets, with the yield on the benchmark US 10-year Treasury hovering around 4.62%, close to two-month highs. In today's CPI snapshot, headline inflation is expected to ease to around 3.8%, reflecting lower gasoline prices during much of June, but the key metric for policymakers will be core inflation, which is expected to remain sticky at around 2.9% year-on-year. With oil prices surging again following the renewed conflict in the Strait of Hormuz, investors will be looking beyond today's data to gauge how quickly higher energy costs could feed through into inflation in the months ahead. A softer-than-expected reading could revive hopes for lower borrowing costs and lift equity markets, while a hotter print would likely send Treasury yields and the dollar higher, piling fresh pressure on stocks.

Back in Westminster, Andy Burnham's path to Number 10 has been smoothed after he picked up another 27 Labour MP nominations overnight, taking his tally to 349 and effectively ending any prospect of a leadership contest. He's pledged to stick to Labour's fiscal rules while maintaining support for business investment, a balancing act likely to reassure bond markets but one which leaves little room for expensive policy giveaways. One thing is certain – he'll inherit an overflowing in-tray. Pressure is already mounting from business groups for a more ambitious growth agenda, with the CBI among those urging swift action to reduce industrial electricity costs, arguing that Britain's high energy prices are undermining competitiveness and deterring investment. Balancing fiscal discipline with mounting demands to kick-start growth could prove one of Burnham's first, and toughest, challenges in Downing Street."

Scottish Friendly’s own research reveals that 26% of British adults are ‘nervous’ about investing, 16% feel ‘overwhelmed’ and 10% describe themselves as ‘terrified’.

Among non-investors, the biggest deterrent is the fear of losing money (34%), followed by the fear of making the wrong decisions (26%), not having enough money (24%) and concerns over market volatility (20%).

Ahead of the Mansion House speech, on 14 July, Scottish Friendly is therefore calling on the Government to:

Stephen McGee, CEO at Scottish Friendly, said: “The Government is right to aspire for the UK to become a nation of investors, but achieving that will take a multi-pronged approach that gets to the root of savers' fears. People avoid the stock market because they don't understand ISAs, they're scared of losing money and there's little support to help them understand and manage that risk.

"We also need a regulatory regime that encourages investing rather than discourages it. Potential investors are constantly bombarded with warnings that they could lose money, which doesn’t help. It’s a bit like a car salesman warning you the car might break down before you've even bought it. It's little wonder people walk away.

"If the Government is serious about turning us into a nation of investors, it needs to go a lot further. That means tackling fear head-on through campaigns like Savvy Squirrel, easing disclosure rules and using the tax system properly to encourage long-term investment in UK companies. Bold rhetoric is easy. Bold policy is harder – and that's what's needed here."

US military forces hit dozens of sites in an attempt to wrest control of the Strait of Hormuz from Iran, and Tehran has retaliated by hitting US bases in the region. The war has underlined the huge importance of the waterway, which is so vital for shipments from the region. The Strait has become the United States' Achilles' heel in this conflict and Iran's strongest bargaining chip. It’s a strategic chokepoint that gives Tehran disproportionate leverage despite America's overwhelming military superiority. With the chance of negotiations seizing up again, and this fresh flare-up of attacks, it’s sent oil prices racing up 4% above $79 a barrel. European and UK gas prices have also surged, back up to levels last seen a month ago. While prices are still not at crisis levels, the creep upwards will ignite fresh inflationary worries and concerns about how far higher interest rates could move. That’s being reflected in the bond markets, with yields on gilts and US Treasuries rising, demonstrating how investors are becoming increasingly skittish about how far central bank policy will have to move to keep a lid on inflation.

The resumption of attacks is hitting airline stocks, with IAG, the owner of British Airways, falling by more than 2% and Wizz Air also lower. Airlines have come under pressure as investors assess the prospect of higher fuel costs and the potential for further disruption to flight schedules in the region. Heathrow has already provided a reminder of how the conflict is affecting passenger demand. The airport reported a 1.8% fall in passenger numbers in June, with 7.2 million travellers passing through its four terminals, down from 7.4 million a year earlier. Heathrow said the decline reflected the "continued suppression of Middle East traffic" because of the conflict, although demand on transatlantic routes remained robust, with around two million passengers travelling between Heathrow and North America during the month. But with missiles landing once again across the Middle East there will be worries that the confidence of the travelling public will be dented yet again, just as there were hopes that flight patterns would start to get back to normal.

There’s been another sharp sell-off of semiconductor stocks after the roaring debut of South Korea’s SK Hynix on the Nasdaq on Friday sparked a wave of profit-taking. The main shares are listed on South Korea’s KOSPI and plunged 15% as investors exited their positions. Given the huge weight of the stock on the index, it triggered circuit breakers as falls of 8% were registered, to stop a broader slide in the index.

It was always going to be a volatile ride after the company's American depositary receipts began trading at such a heady valuation. The offer was seven times oversubscribed and SK Hynix ADRs initially shot up 14%. The FOMO effect was super strong, with US retail investors fearful of missing out on buying into the stars of the AI show. While companies right now can’t get enough of SK Hynix's products, there are concerns that a lot of this demand has been front-loaded and will ultimately prove cyclical, as investor attention gradually shifts from the companies building the AI revolution to those finding the most profitable ways to use it. These niggles of worry, combined with inflationary concerns and the drop in sentiment as the war in the Middle East kicked off again, have triggered the sell-off and volatility is set to reign over the sector in the coming days and weeks.

Investors are also bracing for a barrage of corporate earnings, inflation data and fresh scrutiny of central bank policy, which could set the tone for markets over the days ahead. As geopolitical risk swirls, all eyes will be on the new Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh, as he appears before the House Financial Services Committee on Tuesday and the Senate Banking Committee on Wednesday. It'll be the first real opportunity to assess how he intends to lead the world's most influential central bank, and to what extent he'll deflect any attempts by the White House to influence policy from the sidelines.

Investors will be hanging on every word for clues about the path for interest rates, especially given that the last Fed minutes showed several policymakers remain concerned that inflation risks haven't fully receded, keeping expectations for interest rate hikes alive. Tuesday's inflation report will add fuel to the fire of speculation. Headline CPI is expected to ease to around 3.8%, down from May's 4.2%, largely because the sharp energy price spike seen earlier this year is expected to have less influence on the annual comparison. However, the key metric will be core inflation, which is forecast to remain stubbornly close to 2.9%, underlining that underlying price pressures have proved much harder to shift. With energy prices moving upwards again and the massive investment pouring into AI infrastructure driving demand for everything from semiconductors and electricity to construction and skilled labour, investors will also be watching for signs that inflationary pressures remain more persistent than hoped.

While concerns about inflation could provide some downside, another burst of strong corporate results could keep the bulls charging. Wall Street's banking heavyweights are first out of the blocks as second-quarter earnings season gets underway, with JPMorgan, Bank of America, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs and Wells Fargo all reporting this week.

Investors will be looking for reassurance that trading activity has remained buoyant during another volatile quarter, while keeping a close eye on loan quality, net interest income and the outlook for consumer and business borrowing. There is also likely to be plenty of focus on investment banking divisions. After a lull, activity appears to have revved up, with IPOs, secondary share sales and mergers and acquisitions gathering momentum. The huge wave of investment pouring into artificial intelligence is likely to have created fresh financing opportunities. Banks are increasingly well placed to benefit from the next phase of the AI boom – not simply by financing technology companies, but by funding the vast data centres, power infrastructure and corporate acquisitions needed to support the AI revolution.

Closer to home, attention will turn to Thursday's GDP figures, which are expected to show the UK economy remained highly sluggish in May. Higher energy prices, weak business confidence and cautious consumers are all likely to have weighed on activity. Manufacturing is also expected to have remained under pressure, underlining how fragile the recovery remains. There may also be a chance to gauge the strength of feeling around the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee at Wednesday's Mansion House dinner. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey and Chancellor Rachel Reeves will set out their latest thinking on the economy, financial regulation and the government's ambitions for growth. Investors will be listening closely for any hints about the outlook for UK interest rates and whether policymakers believe the economy is finally beginning to turn a corner.

Political developments will also remain on investors' radar, with Andy Burnham expected to be confirmed as party leader on Friday, putting him on course to become Prime Minister the following week. His expected arrival in Downing Street has largely been priced in and, for now, investors appear relatively sanguine. Gilt yields had edged back slightly, before the latest ramp higher induced by the fresh attacks in the Middle East. Overall, it suggests bond markets don't currently see a Burnham premiership as a material threat to fiscal stability; however, some uncertainty will still linger. But with much of the political transition already priced in, and no expectation of an immediate clash with financial markets over fiscal policy, attention has shifted back to the bigger drivers of borrowing costs—inflation, interest rates and the health of the global economy.

While London’s FTSE 100 is largely driven by the global outlook and corporate earnings, due to the international flavour of the companies listed, there could still be a mini-footy bounce incoming for domestically leaning consumer-focused stocks. A little extra cheer may filter through after England's convincing victory over Norway at the weekend. While the economic impact of a football win is often fleeting, sporting success has been shown to lift consumer confidence, with pubs, restaurants, supermarkets and drinks companies likely to benefit if the feel-good factor encourages celebratory spending.''

TPR has published the data as part of efforts to improve member outcomes, support economic growth, and prepare the market for the introduction of new value for money requirements helping to shift the focus in DC schemes from cost to value.

The data, collected from 25 master trusts, demonstrates that larger master trusts are those most substantially invested in private markets.

Richard Knox, TPR’s Executive Director, Strategy, Policy and Analysis, said: “TPR does not tell schemes how to invest but we do challenge all schemes to deliver value for money. We want to see well-governed schemes confidently considering a broader range of investments, with potential to improve returns for members.

“We expect trustees and administrators to review their strategy, governance arrangements and diversification in line with our private market guidance. Where schemes cannot demonstrate value, trustees should consider consolidation in members’ interests.”

Collection of asset allocation data by TPR is envisaged to run annually until new legislative value for money (VFM) disclosure requirements are introduced under the Pension Schemes Act 2026 in 2028.

Maike Currie, VP Personal Finance, PensionBee comments: “For whoever holds the keys to No.10, the numbers behind the policy tell their own story. Since its introduction, the Triple Lock has driven the basic state pension up from £102.15 a week in 2011/12 to £184.90 a week in 2026/27 - an increase of more than 80% which comfortably outpaces the roughly 65% rise in CPI inflation over the same period.”

At £241 per week, a full new state pension is expected to be £30 per week (14%) higher than it would have been under average earnings indexation since 2011. State pension spending has risen from around 3.5% of annual economic output (GDP) at the turn of the century to around 5% today, making it the second-largest individual area of public spending after the NHS.

Maike Currie, VP Personal Finance, PensionBee adds: “It's important not to present the Triple lock divisively, as a choice between supporting pensioners and supporting younger people. Rising youth unemployment and the growing number of young people who are not in education, employment or training are complex, structural challenges that require targeted solutions.

“Pensioners also need protection against inflation, particularly those who rely heavily on the state pension and have limited private pension savings, so any reforms to the Triple Lock should be carefully considered and accompanied by a clear, credible alternative that gives people confidence to plan for the future.”

Against this backdrop, the Government is reportedly considering deducting income tax directly from State Pension payments rather than collecting it later. Around 820,000 pensioners are expected to pay income tax on their State Pension alone by 2027/28. While this would not increase the amount of tax owed, it would change how it is collected. However, there are concerns about the unintended consequences and administrative complexities of a ‘tax now, refund later’ approach, particularly if too much tax is deducted upfront before being refunded later.

Currie comments: “The challenges over taxing the State Pension highlights just how complicated the interaction between the Triple Lock and frozen tax thresholds has become. Any changes need to be carefully designed so pensioners pay the right amount of tax without creating unnecessary complexity or confusion.

“More broadly, the ongoing Triple Lock debate is a reminder that pension policy can and does change. We’ve seen reforms to the State Pension age, National Insurance and tax allowances over the years. While the Triple Lock remains in place today, no government can guarantee what the system will look like decades from now. The State Pension provides an important foundation, but it shouldn't be the only pillar of retirement planning. Building up a private pension gives people greater choice, flexibility and financial resilience, regardless of how future governments choose to reform the system."

While ‘de-risking’ a pension scheme might seem appealing, the relationship between risk and return when it comes to investments means that the consequence of taking less risk is either a lower income in retirement, or a lower income while working, given the need to pay higher contributions to achieve the same outcome. The key is therefore to strike an appropriate balance.

Another approach to de-risking, is the trend in many workplace DC pension defaults in recent years to increase in the amount of investment risk that savers are exposed to when they are younger and have a greater capacity for risk. As members approach retirement, reducing exposure to investment risk remains appropriate, helping to limit the impact of market fluctuations and provide greater certainty over outcomes.

The evolution of retirement income solutions post-pension freedoms means that return- seeking assets remain a feature of many default arrangements, both at and into retirement. The increased use of drawdown means that defaults will more commonly move members into a highly diversified allocation across a range of asset classes and geographies. This can provide schemes and their fund managers with the flexibility to apply tactical asset allocation adjustments where appropriate, to reflect market conditions. Unless a default specifically targets an annuity purchase, de-risking to a mix of cash and bonds isn’t common.

Looking ahead, default retirement solutions are likely to continue evolving. The key challenge is that no single income solution will suit all members. Identifying the most appropriate pathway early—whether that be drawdown, annuity, or a combination—will be central to improving outcomes.

Investment risk is essential to delivering returns, but there are other risks that can managed by the scheme. Longevity risk is an obvious risk in retirement, which can be managed by purchasing an annuity. The key here is to ensure that risk is being shared fairly and that terms reflect a level playing field based on likely longevity. Without underwriting, longevity risk sharing solutions can become a cross-subsidy from those cohorts of members with lower life expectancy to those members who are likely to live longer.

Inflation risk is another consideration, and while inflation protection can be factored into income solutions, it comes at the cost of a lower initial income. While this may be appropriate for some members, it’s unlikely that it will be right for everyone.

There are other risks like sequencing or timing that can be mitigated, and not all risks are to be avoided, but there is one risk that every scheme should seek to reduce – the burden of decision making on the scheme member themselves. Behavioural biases, lack of knowledge, time and capability all conspire to make decision making about pension saving, and especially pension spending, challenging. While Financial Advice remains the gold standard, it’s not accessible for everyone. This is where targeted support, simplified guidance and well-designed default income solutions can play a critical role. By reducing the burden of complex decisions, schemes can help members achieve better outcomes and ultimately have a positive impact on income levels in retirement.

The Footsie looks set to end the week on a slightly more optimistic footing, with futures markets pointing to a gently positive start to trading. Worries about fresh supply chain snarls as traffic through the Strait of Hormuz slows to a trickle are largely being batted away. Brent crude is trading around $76 a barrel, slightly higher than yesterday but down from above $80 earlier this week. There appears to be an expectation that some kind of deal will be struck, and that these setbacks are now to be expected as regional powers continue to jostle for domination.

Stocks in Asia staged a rebound, coming off the back of a fresh surge in the S&P 500, with the rally broadening beyond the mega-cap technology stocks that have dominated gains for much of the year.

Gains are increasingly being concentrated in sectors considered to be the secondary beneficiaries of the AI investment wave, with industrial companies providing the construction might for new facilities and banks financing the build-out of data centres and power infrastructure. The surge in IPO and dealmaking activity also presents a significant opportunity for investment banks and advisory firms.

The FOMO effect remains strong, with retail investors fearful of missing out on buying into the current stars of the AI show. Memory chip maker SK Hynix is in the spotlight as it is set to start trading on the Nasdaq, with its American depositary receipts reportedly seven times oversubscribed. The South Korean company wanted to benefit from the appetite for AI among US investors, and it seems it won't be disappointed. Even though the stock has already risen by around 660% over the past year, soaring on voracious demand for its high-bandwidth memory chips, plenty of investors are still desperate to get a slice of the company.

However, the stock is likely to be hit by bouts of volatility in the days and weeks to come, given that semiconductor shares have been so sensitive recently to shifts in sentiment. Given the super-high valuations the sector is enjoying, any hint that demand is starting to moderate can trigger sharp swings. While companies right now can't get enough of SK Hynix's products, there are concerns that a lot of this demand has been front-loaded and will ultimately prove cyclical, as investor attention gradually shifts from the companies building the AI revolution to those finding the most profitable ways to use it.''

On average, 25 to 34-year-olds put aside £447 a month in savings – over £2,500 more each year than people aged 45 and over. Despite this, one in five (21%) say they feel “substantially” less financially secure than they did a year ago, highlighting the toll this anxiety is taking on their health and working lives.

What’s more, within this age group close to one in five (17%) who accessed private care in the past six months, did so to access mental health support, the highest rate of any age group.

Given the current UK economic climate, in particular the increasing difficulty for younger generations to gain employment, join the housing ladder and the growth of ‘finfluencer’ content sharing financial advice via social media, this heightened financial anxiety among younger adults comes as no surprise.

Jack Southcott, Head of Protection Proposition at The Exeter, said: “The data presents a picture of a generation that is actively saving but is also carrying a level of financial anxiety that’s showing up in their health and their time at work. Saving more is not providing the security this age group is looking for and, when that concern starts to affect mental health, the financial consequences can quickly stack up.

“It is encouraging to see that younger generations are thinking more on their long-term finances, but we need to ensure they are supported in a way that can ease anxiety and not add to it.

“Advisers have a real opportunity to engage with younger workers to address these concerns. If the sector were to continue to focus on the traditional audiences, we risk missing a whole generation whose needs look very different but are just as important.”

For the insurance industry, the most telling statistic was a different one: fewer than one in five inundated residential buildings had flood insurance (NYC, 2022). The financial burden fell on the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), on federal disaster funds, and on hundreds of thousands of individuals and businesses who had no coverage at all.

Sandy’s flooding was not a failure of meteorological forecasting; the track and timing of Sandy were well-predicted days in advance. It was a failure of risk translation. Atmospheric science could describe what had happened, but the insurance industry could not adequately estimate the chances of it happening again.

As a result, flood risk was either excluded from private coverage, crudely approximated, or offloaded to government-backed insurance programs like the NFIP. The tools necessary to improve flood modeling existed in academic hydrology, but they were slow, data-hungry, and built for individual river catchments rather than the kind of large-scale risk assessment that the (re)insurance industry needed. What the market needed was a flood model that could work at scale. In 2012, that tool was closer than most in the industry realized.

With support from WRN, this work was developed and validated across flood risk settings in Europe and Southeast Asia (U. Bristol, 2012). By 2012, it had already been adopted commercially: JBA Consulting had developed LISFLOOD-FP-based models to build national flood risk maps for the UK Environment Agency (U. Bristol, 2012). That same year, the research was awarded the Lloyd's of London Science of Risk Prize for Natural Hazards, recognition from the insurance market itself that this was science with direct commercial value (Lloyds 2012).

However, the protection gap has not closed; in some respects, it has widened. Flood insurance take-up rates in areas affected by Sandy have declined since 2012, not grown (RMS, 2022).

What 2012 demonstrated, and what remains as true in 2026 as it was then, is that better flood models are a necessary but not sufficient condition for a functioning flood insurance market. The models inform us where the water will go – the harder problem is developing the products, incentives, and public understanding that translate that knowledge into coverage. That is a challenge the WRN and its partners continue to work on, and one that every major coastal flood event since Sandy has made more urgent.

Investors are assessing the likely outcome of the latest round of military action, with both Iran and the US hitting targets in the region. While President Trump has declared the ceasefire to be over, he’s already been heard talking on Air Force One about the prospect of a deal and whether he’s inclined to talk to Iran. It already seems that a door may be opening to fresh negotiations, even though both sides continue to talk tough. Oil prices have retreated slightly, with Brent crude hovering around $77 a barrel, down from above $80 yesterday.

Mining stocks have rebounded, with gold and silver producers benefiting as easing oil prices have taken some of the edge off inflation worries and helped push the dollar lower. A cheaper greenback makes commodities priced in the currency, such as precious metals, more attractive to international buyers.

However, deep unpredictability still lingers following this major setback to peace hopes. Investors are wary that the calm may prove short-lived. If energy prices start climbing again, higher costs would rapidly ripple through businesses across multiple sectors, while pricier fuel would eat into household budgets and encourage more cautious consumer spending.

UK gilt yields have retreated very slightly but still remain highly elevated, above 4.9%, the highest level since 10 June. The Middle East escalation comes as investors are also weighing the political uncertainty surrounding the prospect of a Burnham premiership and what it could mean for tax and spending plans. With so many moving parts, investors are demanding a bigger premium to lend to the UK, and gilt yields look set to remain sensitive to every fresh political and geopolitical twist."

Building on the evidence presented in the Pensions Commission’s Interim Report, the research concludes that retirement adequacy can no longer be judged by pension savings alone. Housing costs, caring responsibilities and household circumstances increasingly determine whether people can afford a decent retirement, while the long-held assumption that most people will own their home outright by retirement is rapidly becoming outdated.

The report highlights renters as one of the groups facing the greatest retirement challenge. Almost two million more pensioner households are projected to be renting by 2044 - a threefold increase - yet median private pension wealth for those aged 60 to 64 is only around £154,000. Renting a two-bedroom home throughout retirement could cost between £200,000 and £400,000, depending on location.

Single people are also at greater risk, needing around 28% more income than couples to achieve the same standard of living. Divorce continues to undermine retirement security, with only 11% of divorcing couples making pension-sharing arrangements, while survivor benefits under Defined Contribution pensions are no longer automatic and depend on choices made at retirement.

For the UK’s growing cohort of self-employed individuals, the picture is particularly stark. Unlike employees, they have no access to Auto-Enrolment, no employer pension contributions and no default mechanism to make pension saving the norm.

PensionBee’s own research found that a self-employed person earning £30,000 a year is projected to retire with £64,000 less than an employed peer on the same salary, largely because they miss out on employer pension contributions.

The report also identifies weaknesses within Auto-Enrolment itself. For workers earning close to the £10,000 earnings trigger, the headline minimum contribution rate of 8% equates to an effective contribution rate of just over 3% of total pay because contributions are only paid on qualifying earnings rather than every pound earned.

Maike Currie, VP Personal Finance, PensionBee, commented: “This report lays bare a structural mismatch at the heart of the pensions system. Auto-Enrolment was designed for a Britain where most people bought a home, stayed in one job for years and retired as part of a stable couple household. Today Britain looks very different, with rising housing costs, more fragmented careers and changing family structures.

“The fastest-growing group of future retirees are people who rent, move between different types of work, live alone or have caring responsibilities that interrupt their savings. The system has not kept up.

“The system has let self-employed workers down but that doesn’t mean they have to wait for it to catch up. A personal pension doesn’t require an employer, a fixed monthly commitment or a minimum contribution. Most contributions will usually benefit from tax relief from the Government. Even starting later in life and contributing what you can can make a meaningful difference. If you’ve had workplace pensions in the past, tracking them down and consolidating them is often the best first step.

“But policymakers also need to act. The Self-Assessment tax return already reaches every self-employed worker in the country. Using that moment to encourage pension saving, explain tax relief and make opening a personal pension the obvious next step would be a simple, low-cost reform capable of transforming retirement outcomes. At the same time, bringing the Auto-Enrolment age down from 22 to 18 would give millions of young workers a valuable head start, allowing decades of compound growth to do more of the heavy lifting.”

With decision-makers away from the office, payment approvals delegated to colleagues, employees working remotely or from holiday locations and teams operating with reduced capacity, cyber criminals are increasingly exploiting what security professionals describe as a natural "window of opportunity".

Rather than targeting weaknesses in technology, many modern cyber-attacks rely on exploiting normal human behaviour. Criminals know that when colleagues are unavailable, verification processes are slower, familiar contacts are harder to reach and urgent requests are less likely to be challenged.

Neil D’Mello, Client Director at Everywhen, said: "Cyber criminals don't need businesses to lower their security standards during the summer; they simply need normal business routines to change. When key decision-makers are on annual leave and approval processes are delegated, attackers have a greater opportunity to exploit uncertainty.

"The majority of successful cyber fraud doesn't begin with sophisticated hacking. It begins with someone receiving what appears to be a legitimate request and making a perfectly understandable decision, based on the information available to them. Summer simply creates more of those moments."

Everywhen believes that one of the most overlooked risks comes from temporary changes to everyday business processes. Payment approvals, supplier queries and requests for access are frequently handled by colleagues covering annual leave, while out-of-office messages can unintentionally provide criminals with valuable intelligence about who is absent and who has taken over their responsibilities.

At the same time, employees are increasingly accessing company systems while travelling, using unfamiliar networks or working outside their normal routines. Although security controls remain unchanged, the volume of legitimate but unusual activity makes genuinely suspicious behaviour more difficult to identify.

The insurer believes the increased exposure is not the result of employees becoming less security conscious, but because the informal checks and conversations that often prevent fraud naturally, become less accessible during holiday periods.

Neil D’Mello added: "Preparation is far more effective than reacting, after an incident has occurred. Businesses don't need to introduce complicated new controls every summer, but they should review how critical decisions will be made while colleagues are away. Clear approval processes, simple escalation routes and ensuring employees know which controls should never be bypassed can significantly reduce the opportunity for fraudsters.

"Summer should be a time when people switch off from work, not when businesses inadvertently switch off the safeguards that protect them. A little planning before the holiday season can make a significant difference should criminals attempt to take advantage of reduced staffing levels."

Individuals are not one-dimensional. While many value the certainty of a steady income, whether through an annuity or CDC, they also want the freedom to adapt their retirement plans as circumstances change, similarly to the way drawdown enables. This is especially so in the early years of retirement when circumstances can change quickly. Meeting all these needs in a single solution is one of the defining challenges for the pensions industry.

These features make R-CDC an attractive option for schemes looking to improve member outcomes at scale.

However, this comes with a trade-off. R-CDC is designed to prioritise income security over individual control, which means it does not naturally offer the same level of flexibility as income drawdown. Early flex-and-fix* type DC designs have sought to address this tension, but these approaches often involve complexity or compromise. R-CDC has the potential to represent a meaningful step forward, offering a secure income for life while helping to address the very real risk of individuals running out of money.

* A ‘flex-and-fix’ design is one in which members enter a temporary flexible drawdown period before being moved to another decumulation option at a later age (eg annuity purchase or R-CDC at age 75).

Automatically moving members into an income product that protects against running out of money has the potential to improve outcomes at scale. This approach also aligns with wider policy developments that aim to support better decision-making at retirement.

Defaults can:

But defaults need to be designed with care. Members’ needs can change, and retirement is not a one-off decision. Particularly in the early years, flexibility can be just as important as security.

In practice, this can be difficult. Constraints in the wider pensions framework, including tax and regulatory considerations, can limit the ability to move between products or adapt retirement strategies. This creates a gap between what members want and what the system allows.

There are practical ways to do this. Schemes could explore carefully designed transfer options or phased approaches that allow members to retain some choice, particularly in the early stages of retirement.

The challenge is to strike the right balance. Too much flexibility could weaken the benefits of risk sharing. Too little could limit the appeal of R-CDC for members who value control. With thoughtful design and appropriate safeguards, it should be possible to achieve both.

Areas to consider include:

Removing unnecessary barriers would allow schemes to design retirement solutions that better reflect how people actually use their pensions.

From a scheme design perspective, schemes can manage flexibility carefully. Approaches such as actuarial controls and clearly defined transfer terms can help protect fairness across members while still offering choice.

We believe retirement CDC can play a major role in improving retirement outcomes. But to fully realise that potential, it needs to align with the expectations of modern savers.

That means combining:

Getting that balance right will be critical to long-term success.

Greater flexibility in retirement CDC, supported by targeted policy change, could be a significant step forward. It would allow schemes to provide better outcomes while maintaining the benefits of collective risk sharing.

For UK pension savers, this could mean greater confidence in retirement, more resilient income, and solutions that feel practical as well as secure.

PensionBee analysis shows that if an MP instead saved into a typical defined contribution workplace pension under minimum Auto-Enrolment contribution rates, they could expect to retire with a pension pot of around £195,850 by age 67, assuming they entered Parliament at age 35 with £20,000 already saved. While that’s more than double today's average pension pot of £88,444, it would still not provide the guaranteed lifetime income available through the parliamentary pension scheme.

Maike Currie, VP Personal Finance at PensionBee, comments: “As attention turns to who will occupy the top jobs in government, it’s worth remembering that the financial package extends well beyond salary. Ministers are among the relatively small number of workers who still benefit from a defined benefit pension that provides a guaranteed income in retirement.

“For most people, retirement looks very different. Unlike MPs with a defined benefit pension, the retirement income most of us end up with is largely determined by three decisions: how much we contribute, where our pension is invested and the fees we pay along the way. Helping people make that connection could be one of the biggest steps towards building a nation of engaged investors and improving long-term financial resilience.”

From April 2026, MPs receive a basic annual salary of £98,599, which increases annually in line with average public sector earnings, as measured by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

Cabinet Ministers are entitled to an additional ministerial salary of £72,454, although the amount typically claimed is £67,505, taking total remuneration to £166,104. This applies to several senior government roles, including the Chancellor of the Exchequer, Secretary of State and the Lord Chancellor.

The Prime Minister is entitled to an additional £80,807, although £75,440 is typically claimed, bringing total remuneration to £169,344.

By contrast, most employees build a pension pot through workplace pensions under Auto-Enrolment. The value of those pensions depends on how much is contributed over time and how the underlying investments perform.

The comparison highlights the stark difference between today’s two pension systems. While most workers build retirement savings that depend on contributions and investment returns, MPs continue to benefit from a guaranteed income in retirement.

Maike Currie, VP Personal Finance at PensionBee, added: “The comparison isn’t about suggesting everyone should have the same pension as an MP. It highlights how different retirement looks for most workers today, where outcomes depend on how much you save and how your investments perform.

“The good news is that there are practical steps everyone can take. Checking in on your pension, increasing contributions where you can and combining old pensions can all make a meaningful difference over time. The earlier people recognise that their pension is an investment, not just another deduction on their payslip, the better placed they’ll be for retirement.”

The slowdown in deal activity, however, can also be interpreted as a market reset following the major spike in activity at the start of the year. The 202 transactions valued over $100 million completed worldwide in the second quarter of 2026 still surpassed the 176 deals closed in the same period last year. M&A activity during the last three months also came close to the 215 deals completed in the first quarter, showing a resilient performance of smaller deals despite the impact of the conflict in the Middle East.

Jana Mercereau, Head of Europe M&A Consulting, WTW, said: “The M&A market continues to undergo sharp, seesaw swings in deal performance, reflecting an unpredictable macroeconomic and geopolitical environment. Yet, after waves of uncertainty and an uneven deal trajectory that is expected to endure for the rest of 2026, buyers have barely paused and continue to stare down volatility to cut deals.”

All regional acquirers underperformed their respective regional index between April and June 2026. North American acquirers underperformed by -11.6pp with 103 deals completed, compared to -5.4pp and 117 deals in the first quarter of 2026. European dealmakers also underperformed their index by -8.3pp in the last three months with 38 deals completed, compared to +6.0pp during the previous quarter with 40 deals. Reflecting the wider European trend, British acquirers also underperformed the index.

The performance of Asia-Pacific buyers was more acutely depressed, substantially underperforming their regional index by -35.8pp compared to -3.4pp in the first three months of 2026. At the same time, Asia Pacific was the only region to record a quarterly rise in deal volume, with 51 deals completed during the second quarter compared to 49 the previous three months. This increase was achieved despite a sharp fall in transactions by Chinese buyers, who recorded just seven completed transactions compared to 21 in the first quarter.

Mercereau said: “Geopolitical uncertainty, valuation concerns and shifting trade policies have yet to significantly temper the pace, depth, and breadth of the global M&A market. As the push for scale and cost efficiency to address increased competition continue to drive deal momentum, a disciplined, strategy-driven focus on sector-specific opportunities will prove essential to execute deals that create long-term value in turbulent conditions.”

WTW’s Quarterly Deal Performance Monitor (QDPM)

It’s in this tense environment that investors are waiting for the minutes of the last Fed meeting to be released. Expectations of rate cuts had been reined in a little after the weaker-than-expected jobs report last week, but now that the cards are being thrown up in the air again in the Middle East, there’s likely to be even closer scrutiny of more hawkish attitudes around the table. The minutes are likely to show that policymakers will remain driven by the data, rather than personal convictions or external pressures. However, with energy prices at risk of ramping higher, they’re also expected to reinforce the message that any fresh inflationary shock could delay the path towards lower interest rates, keeping the Fed firmly in wait-and-see mode.

Fresh geopolitical uncertainty risks denting the confidence of holidaymakers once again, but this worry hasn’t thrown Jet2 shares off course. They’ve risen more than 12% this morning as investors have cheered results showing super-strong summer demand, with capacity 7.7% ahead of last year. Its strategy of focusing on value is proving a powerful draw, with cost-conscious consumers still prioritising their annual escape despite lingering global tensions. Bookings are running 7.1% ahead of this point last year, while fuller planes and targeted price investment are helping to keep momentum flying. Hitting the top end of profit guidance has reinforced confidence that Jet2’s nimble operating model is helping it navigate choppier skies, and the announcement of a fresh £250 million share buyback has provided an extra tailwind for the shares.''

The calculations examine two changes that have featured prominently in recent tax policy debates: the abolition of CGT uplift on death and the alignment of CGT rates with income tax rates. Current CGT rates are 18% for many basic-rate taxpayers and 24% for higher and additional-rate taxpayers, with a £3,000 annual exemption.

The analysis shows that abolishing CGT uplift on death could leave beneficiaries facing a tax bill of almost £120,000 when selling an inherited family home that has risen in value by £500,000.

Meanwhile, aligning CGT rates with income tax rates could increase the tax bill on a £50,000 gain by nearly £10,000 for additional-rate taxpayers and more than £7,500 for higher-rate taxpayers.

Ed Wood, Financial Planning Director at Rathbones, says: "We've seen a significant increase in client enquiries about CGT as speculation grows over what fiscal measures a new government might consider to fund its economic agenda. With commitments made on the main tax levers, many investors see CGT as a potentially tempting area for area for policymakers looking to raise additional revenue.

"However, there is a risk that further increases in the CGT burden could discourage investment at a time when the UK needs private capital to turbocharge economic growth. There is also a question over whether higher rates would ultimately deliver the expected boost to the public finances, as investor behaviour often changes in response to tax increases.”

Rathbones' analysis shows that, assuming a 24% CGT rate:

A family inheriting a property that has risen in value by £500,000 over a 25-year period could therefore face a CGT bill approaching £120,000 when the property is ultimately sold.

The prospect of abolishing CGT uplift on death comes alongside planned inheritance tax changes that will bring unused pension funds within the scope of IHT from April 2027.

Ed Wood says: "For many families, the removal of CGT uplift on death would feel like a one-two punch. Not only could inherited wealth be subject to inheritance tax, but beneficiaries could also face a CGT bill on gains that accrued during their loved one's lifetime. Add in the forthcoming inclusion of unused pension pots within inheritance tax calculations, and there is a growing concern that a much larger slice of intergenerational wealth will end up in the taxman's coffers."

"The tax implications are only part of the story. Removing CGT uplift on death could also create a paperwork nightmare for executors, who may be forced to reconstruct decades of ownership history, track down purchase records, calculate the cost of long-forgotten improvements and establish the original acquisition cost of assets that may have been held for generations.

"For grieving families, the challenge may not just be paying the tax, but establishing how much tax is due in the first place. Any reform would therefore risk adding significant complexity, cost and delay to the administration of estates at an already difficult time."

If this occurred, an additional-rate taxpayer making a £50,000 gain outside tax wrappers such as ISAs and pensions could face a tax bill of £21,150, compared with £11,280 under the current regime — an increase of £9,870.

Higher-rate taxpayers would also face a notable increase in their tax burden. A £10,000 gain would generate a tax bill of £2,800, up from £1,680 currently. On gains of £50,000, the tax liability would rise to £18,800, compared with £11,280 today.

Basic-rate taxpayers would also be affected, with the tax bill on a £10,000 gain rising from £1,260 to £1,400 if CGT rates were aligned with income tax rates.

Kirsty Cartwright, Investment Director at Rathbones, says: "For higher and additional-rate taxpayers, aligning CGT rates with income tax rates could add thousands of pounds to the tax bill on a single disposal. For business owners, landlords and long-term investors, any reforms could have implications not only for investment returns, but also for succession planning and the transfer of wealth between generations."

"While speculation has prompted useful conversations about tax planning, investors should avoid letting tax considerations alone drive investment decisions. One approach we use is agreeing a CGT budget with clients, allowing gains to be realised in a measured way while reinvesting into opportunities that are better aligned with their objectives, circumstances and risk profile.

"The key is not to let the tax tail wag the investment dog. After all, CGT is only payable when you've made a profit. Whatever policy changes may come, making full use of available allowances and tax-efficient wrappers such as ISAs and pensions remains as important as ever."

Alex Pugh, chartered financial planner and Partner at Saltus, said: “A lower threshold would mean significantly more homeowners facing an annual surcharge on top of their existing council tax bill, particularly in areas where property prices have grown significantly over recent decades. While a £1.5 million property may sound like a high-value asset, it does not necessarily mean the owner has significant disposable wealth available - many households may be asset-rich but cash-flow constrained, particularly those who are retired or approaching retirement and have much of their wealth tied up in their home. For someone on a fixed retirement income, an additional annual charge of several thousand pounds is not a marginal cost and it could fundamentally change whether staying in that property remains viable.

“The impact is also likely to vary depending on where people live. In some parts of London and the South East, for example, a property at this level may be a family home rather than a luxury property, meaning a wider range of homeowners could potentially be affected than the term ‘mansion tax’ might suggest.

“For those who may fall within scope, the key consideration is understanding how an additional ongoing cost fits into their wider financial position. A property should not be viewed in isolation, and homeowners should consider how their home fits alongside their pension arrangements, investments, income needs and longer-term plans. For some people, this may prompt a wider conversation about whether their current property remains appropriate for their future circumstances, but any decisions should be based on their overall financial goals rather than simply reacting to a potential charge.

"The valuation process is one of the most significant practical concerns. High-value property can be difficult to assess accurately, with factors such as location, condition, local planning decisions and the availability of comparable sales all affecting the figure, and two surveyors could arrive at very different numbers for the same property. There is also a wider question around how improvements and extensions would be treated. Many homeowners have chosen to stay put and invest in their properties, adding value through renovations or extensions because the increase in the property’s worth has historically justified the cost. If a high-value property surcharge were introduced, there would need to be clarity over whether significant improvements could trigger a new valuation and potentially bring more homes into scope.

A transparent valuation process and a clear appeals mechanism will be essential to ensure homeowners are treated fairly, particularly in cases where an official valuation pushes a homeowner above the threshold but the property would not actually achieve that price on the open market. If someone is paying a significant surcharge based on a valuation of £1.5 million but their home later sells for less, there needs to be a straightforward route to challenge that assessment. At the moment, there is still uncertainty around what that process would look like in practice.”

The convergence of climate disruption with ongoing geopolitical pressures creates conditions for cascading, interconnected challenges across transport networks, energy systems and commodity markets.

Key areas of concern identified by TT Club include:

The case for proactive resilience

Neil Dalus, Risk Assessment Manager at TT Club commented: "The trajectory of this El Niño event demands that the logistics and supply chain community takes a proactive rather than reactive approach. The question is not whether disruption will occur, but how prepared organisations are to anticipate and respond to it. Those with greater supply chain visibility, diversified sourcing strategies and robust crisis management frameworks will be far better positioned to weather what could be a very challenging period."

TT Club is encouraging organisations to take priority actions, including enhanced scenario planning that incorporates compound climate and geopolitical risks, supply chain diversification away from highly exposed geographies, deeper supplier mapping to identify hidden vulnerabilities, and the integration of seasonal climate intelligence into decision-making processes.

Those seeking a practical framework for strengthening climate resilience may also find TT Club’s climate-ready supply chain whitepaper useful. It provides a dedicated resource for assessing climate-related supply chain exposure and considering actions to improve preparedness, adaptation and continuity planning.

1. “Fully comprehensive cover means you can drive other cars”

Many drivers wrongly assume that fully comprehensive cover means you can drive other cars (DOC). But this isn’t always the case - and there are often strict conditions.

According to Steve, DOC cover is included on a case-by-case basis and only 2% of policies offer DOC cover as standard for named drivers. And even if you have DOC in your policy, it usually only covers you on a third-party basis.

If you have DOC cover, it’s usually stated on your schedule of insurance, not in the policy booklet. Rather than assuming cover, if you need to drive someone else’s car, you could look into temporary car insurance or get added to their insurance as a named driver.

According to Steve: “If a friend drives your car without adequate cover and they get into a collision with a third-party, the costs can be significant. The third-party damage would likely be covered by your insurer, but the policyholder would need to reimburse these costs. Damage to your own car is unlikely to be covered, while your friend could be prosecuted for driving without insurance.”

2. “Personal belongings in my car are automatically covered by insurance”

A critical error many motorists make is assuming that their car insurance will kick in if their phone, handbag or laptop is swiped from the back seat. But the reality is that 70% of comprehensive policies have a £500 cover limit.

This means if your £1,000 laptop gets stolen from your car, insurance might only cover half of the cost to replace it. The gap widens further if an entire bag is taken. A laptop, phone and sunglasses together could easily exceed £2,000 in value, leaving motorists significantly short of what they need to replace everything.

Items like money, credit cards, personal documents and business tools are typically excluded from personal belongings cover entirely.

Steve continues: “The level of cover also depends on your specific policy. According to Defaqto, 87% of comprehensive car insurance policies include personal belongings as standard, compared to only 10% of third party, fire and theft (TPFT). You don’t need to worry about commuting vs social cover”

Few drivers realise the critical difference between social and commuting cover, but the consequences can be severe. Around 50% of drivers opt for ‘social only cover’, potentially unaware that then using their car for commuting could invalidate their entire policy.

Not understanding this distinction could leave motorists uninsured for their journey to work, and liable for a fine and points on their driving licence. Driving uninsured, even unknowingly, carries a fixed penalty of £300 and six points on your licence. Steve shares that for insurance purposes, commuting is classed as regular travel to and from a single place of work.

Beat the misconceptions: check your cover

Steve concludes: “When it comes to insurance products, never assume. After all, asking the question could be the difference between a policy payout and an astronomical bill in your name.”

Go.Compare shares three top tips to motorists to avoid getting caught out:

The analysis finds that most participants reported an increase in assets over 2025. The four largest participants reported an average asset increase of 5%, marking a significant improvement on last year, when the same group recorded an average decrease of 2%.

The remaining participants recorded an average increase of 5%, compared with an average increase of 1% last year. Overall, fewer firms reported declining assets this year: total assets fell for five participants compared with twelve participants last year.

Most participants reported an increase in Gross Written Premiums (GWP) compared to last year with the median increasing from £37m to £39m. The average Gross Written Premium rose by 6% for the top 4 and by 13% across the other participants, with 11 participants recording growth in excess of 10%.

Gross claims increased for most participants with the median gross claims incurred rising significantly to £37m (2024: £31m). Claims in excess of premiums can indicate challenges for growth however it may also relate to long term business from prior years and are supported by historical investment returns for savings and investment providers.

The findings of the Report highlight the value mutuals bring and the direction of travel towards proportionate supervision, lower burden and better support for growth amid the Government’s ambition to double the size of the mutual and co-operative sector.

Ewen Tweedie, Actuarial Director in Broadstone’s Insurance Advisory & Remediation division, commented: “Our analysis shows the mutual sector is well placed to keep supporting its members and has the financial strength to help deliver the government’s ambitions.

“Across the market, momentum was evident in 2025 with firms focused on supporting members through higher claims activity whilst benefiting from broadly positive Investment performance. Equities performed strongly, while fixed income delivered mixed results depending on duration.

“Looking ahead to the coming year, there may be some turbulence due to factors ranging from political instability within the UK to geopolitical tensions driving increased cost of living pressures.

“Mental health is having a growing impact on individuals and workplaces, underlining the importance of prevention, early intervention and staying connected to work. Mutuals have an important role to play in supporting members and communities through these challenges.”

A full copy of Broadstone’s report UK Insurance Landscape: Insights from mutuals can be downloaded here: https://broadstone.co.uk/resource-library/

While few of us earn our living on Centre Court, the same principle applies more widely. Whether it's a bonus, inheritance, business sale or redundancy payment, investing part of a windfall into a pension early can give those savings decades to grow.

Projections show the value at age 67 of a prize lump sum invested at age 25. Figures assume maximum contributions with full tax relief and annual allowance. Growth is modeled at 7% annually, with a 0.70% management charge and 2% inflation applied to show all values in today's money.

The modelling illustrates a broader principle: when earnings are concentrated in a relatively short period, putting money into a pension early gives it longer to benefit from added tax relief and the power of compound growth.Even a player who exited in the first round of qualifying with £20,000 could build a pension worth £147,354 by retirement - more than seven times the original prize in today's money.

A player who made it to round 1, winning £80,000, could grow that money into a pension pot worth almost £626000. By comparison, an £80,000 lump sum held in cash and growing broadly in line with inflation would still be worth around £80,000 in today's money at age 67. That’s a difference of over half a million pounds.

Maike Currie, VP Personal Finance at PensionBee, commented: “Wimbledon prize money makes eye-watering headlines, but the bigger story is what happens to that money after the tournament ends. While a first-round exit is no doubt disappointing, winnings of £80,000 invested in a pension at age 25 could grow into more than £625,000 by retirement. That's thanks to the combined power of pension tax relief, compounding and time.

“For people who earn much of their lifetime income early in life - whether they're athletes, performers, entrepreneurs or anyone receiving a windfall - the challenge is turning a short period of success into long-term financial security. The temptation is to spend while income is high, but setting some of it aside and giving it decades to grow can make an extraordinary difference later on.

“The lesson isn't just for professional tennis players. Whether it's a bonus, inheritance or other windfall, investing part of it early in a pension can have a much bigger impact on your retirement than many people realise. When it comes to long-term investing, time is the most powerful ingredient. ”

-Ends-

“A single claim may involve storm damage combined with flood ingress, or a lightning strike resulting in fire-related losses. Greater complexity changes the operational reality of loss adjusting. It requires more comprehensive technical assessment, closer coordination with supply chain partners and a more agile response model.”

The combination of high claims volumes, more complexity and greater surge demand is challenging the wider insurance market. As climate and catastrophe scenario risks intensify, insurers are refining how they assess, price and manage risk. According to Gallagher Bassett’s The Carrier Perspective: 2026 Claims Insights report, 57% of UK insurers are enhancing risk assessment and modelling, and the same proportion are increasing premium rates.

“These are not marginal adjustments. They show a market recalibrating around a new risk reality. Insurers are becoming more precise in how they price risk, but pricing alone cannot solve the operational challenge. The point of claim, where adjusters must manage cost, is where volatility becomes real for customers.”

In response, Gallagher Bassett has adopted an integrated field and desk adjusting model, enabling resources to be deployed flexibly based on demand. The organisation has also invested in data-led decision making, validation processes, and real-time management information to support prioritisation during surge periods.

GB’s operating model is designed to address both sides of this challenge: the cost pressure created by higher claim volumes and repair complexity, and the operational complexity of managing losses with multiple causes, suppliers and client needs.

“Our response is built around operational agility and control. Our model allows us to deploy resources flexibly when demand shifts, while ensuring claims are assessed accurately, progressed efficiently and managed with level of care our clients expect.”

“At the same time, service cannot be reduced to process alone. Processes provide an important guide, but our people need the flexibility to respond to the situation in front of them. That means clear, one-to-one communication with claimants to understand what matters most.”

Looking ahead, weather-related impacts are expected to remain a key driver of claims activity and cost. The future of loss adjusting will be shaped by even greater investment in data and analytics, increased use of technology and AI, more flexible catastrophe response frameworks, and stronger collaboration between insurers, clients and adjusting partners.

“As weather events drive higher costs and more complex claims, the ability to respond at scale becomes critical. By drawing on capability across GB’s wider global network, including major operations in the US, Australia and Asia, we can create a 24-hour claims operation when demand requires it. That gives clients greater continuity and control during surge periods, while helping ensure complex losses are assessed, prioritised and progressed without unnecessary delay.”

Capacity alone is not enough in an increasingly volatile environment:

“Clients want confidence that their loss adjusting partner can respond to challenging conditions with resilience and reliability. Gallagher Bassett is structured to manage volatility, not just react to it. Even in periods of heightened disruption, our focus remains the same: delivering consistent, high-quality claims outcomes with speed, control, empathy and confidence.”

To some extent this is understandable – people are auto-enrolled into a pension, and this can mean many do not actively engage with it. There’s also a language issue here - we talk about ‘saving’ into a pension, rather than ‘investing’ in one. It’s a confusion that must be dealt with if people are to make the most from their retirement, as investing is one of the best ways to build your wealth.

On the other hand, you shouldn’t let the fear of choosing investments stop you from contributing to a pension. Certain groups – for instance, the self-employed – are not covered by auto-enrolment and so need to make all the choices around which pension to go for and how it is invested from scratch. If this is the case, then check whether potential providers offer a hassle-free way to invest for your retirement through ready-made options, including the HL Ready Made Pension Plan, where you pick a solution based on your risk tolerance and let the experts do the rest. This can be an ideal entry point into investing, with the option of switching later as your investment knowledge and confidence grows.”

England's stunning World Cup victory over Mexico will be seen as a big win for the hospitality industry, with bars and pubs set to cash in further on the team's progress as fans celebrate. The tills were ringing all night at establishments which stayed open for the game, and the tournament is expected to provide a multi-million-pound boost to the industry as England's run continues. According to payments company Dojo, spending at pubs and bars was already running 17.3% higher during the first two weeks of England's World Cup campaign than in the preceding fortnight, with July's takings expected to swell further.

Football fever is also likely to trigger a fresh wave of spending on party food, cold drinks and barbecue essentials, as fans make the most of the good weather in the run-up to the game against Norway on Saturday. With the mood turning euphoric towards the England team, it could help provide a short-term lift to consumer confidence. However, if England's run is cut short next weekend, the feel-good factor could fade just as quickly, leaving any boost to spending likely to prove temporary rather than the start of a sustained improvement in household optimism.

The big driver of sentiment on markets this week is likely to be the release of the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee minutes on Wednesday, which could offer fresh insight into attitudes towards interest rates. Last week's weaker-than-expected US jobs data has already dampened expectations for multiple rate hikes. Oil prices have settled back towards their pre-Iran conflict levels, raising hopes that the knock-on effects of the energy shock may prove less severe than initially feared.

easyJet appears to be on final approach for a move into private ownership after its board indicated it would be minded to recommend a sweetened £5.5 billion takeover offer from US investment firm Castlelake, marking a significant shift after previously dismissing earlier approaches as "highly opportunistic". The latest proposal of 690p a share represents a substantial premium to where the shares were trading before takeover interest emerged and suggests Castlelake has finally reached a price the board believes better reflects the airline's longer-term value. The deal remains subject to a formal offer and regulatory approvals, but if completed it would see one of Britain's best-known brands leave the London stock market.

easyJet has endured a difficult few months, with the conflict in Iran unsettling consumer confidence, pushing up fuel costs and weighing on European travel demand. Those pressures depressed the airline's share price and created an opportunity that Castlelake clearly believes the market has mispriced. The private equity firm, which has deep expertise in aircraft leasing and aviation finance, appears to see long-term value in easyJet's modern fleet, strong balance sheet and growing holidays business.

Private equity ownership would almost certainly usher in a new phase for easyJet. While being outside the glare of the public markets could give management greater freedom to invest for the long term, private equity investors are typically laser-focused on driving efficiency and boosting returns. That can often mean a fresh look at every aspect of the business - from staffing levels and head office costs to supplier contracts and operational spending. Employees will inevitably be wondering whether job cuts could follow, while passengers will be watching closely to see whether cost-cutting comes at the expense of customer service. The challenge for Castlelake, if a deal goes ahead, will be finding ways to improve profitability without undermining the low-cost airline's reputation for reliability or denting the customer experience that has helped build one of Europe's strongest short-haul brands.

The bid is also the latest example of UK-listed companies becoming attractive targets for overseas buyers, reinforcing concerns about the City of London's shrinking role as a home for publicly traded businesses. If easyJet leaves the London market, it will add to a growing list of high-profile companies exiting the exchange through overseas acquisitions or private equity takeovers. That underlines the continuing valuation gap between UK equities and international peers, with global investors increasingly viewing British companies as attractive takeover targets rather than long-term listed investments. The loss of another established public company would be another blow to the depth and diversity of the UK stock market. As more established British businesses disappear from the London Stock Exchange, investors seeking exposure to the country's growth stories may increasingly need to look elsewhere. Private markets are becoming home to a growing share of entrepreneurial and fast-growing companies, meaning investors who are able to diversify into carefully selected private assets could gain access to opportunities that are increasingly no longer available on public markets.”

Drawing on views from across the financial services landscape, the report identifies 4 major AI-driven shifts likely to impact retail financial services: the transformation of firm operations; the evolution of consumer journeys; the reshaping of competition and market power; and the amplification of fraud and cyber risks.

The report finds there is already consumer appetite for the use of agentic AI in personal finance, with research commissioned by the FCA showing that a fifth of people – equivalent to 11 million UK adults – are likely to use AI that can act autonomously within pre-set goals. But consumers in the survey are concerned about trust and control of AI.

The Review concludes that AI is likely to become a defining force in retail financial services, transforming how firms operate, how consumers make financial decisions and how markets function. While AI has the potential to improve access, personalisation and efficiency, it could also amplify risks associated with fraud, cyber security, consumer harm and market concentration.

Executive director Sheldon Mills said: 'Artificial intelligence will transform financial services by 2030. It creates significant opportunities for consumers, firms and the wider economy. This report sets out a roadmap for how industry regulators and government can prepare for the next phase of AI-driven change in our world-leading financial services sector.'

Key recommendations

The Mills Review also outlines 7 recommendations for the FCA Board and Executive to consider, which are as follows:

FCA response

Ashley Alder, Chair of the FCA, said: 'The Board is enormously grateful to Sheldon for the rich, comprehensive report he’s delivered. His work anticipates the fundamental change agentic AI will bring to financial services. It highlights how consumers and firms can reap significant potential benefits as well how risks can be managed.

'As is clear in the report, we need to keep pace with a rapidly changing environment and the principles-based, outcomes focussed approach we’ve taken on AI – relying on the Consumer Duty and Senior Managers Regime – has been critical to us doing so. The recommendations build on work the FCA has been doing – not least allowing firms to test their use of AI with us – and our own use of AI to be a smarter regulator, more efficient and effective.'

This is not a new problem, but it has become more acute. What has changed is the speed and nature of loss trend movement. Recent disruption has not primarily manifested as large, isolated insured events, but through second-order effects, energy costs, supply chain friction, labour inflation, that feed directly into claims. These are diffuse, persistent, and difficult to capture with traditional approaches to trend selection.

For actuaries, the challenge is less about identifying that trends are moving, and more about how quickly those movements can be reflected in pricing.

On its own, this might suggest some short-term relief in loss costs. But that view does not hold when severity is considered. Repair costs have been rising at a materially faster pace, driven by a combination of factors: more complex vehicle technology, global sourcing of parts, higher input costs for materials and energy, and ongoing pressure on labour. Delays in sourcing components are also extending repair times, increasing both direct and indirect claim costs.

The outcome is a clear divergence. Frequency may soften, but severity is increasing at a rate that more than offsets it. For pricing actuaries, this creates a more complex calibration problem. Trend selection can no longer rely on stable relationships between components of the loss ratio. It requires a more granular, and more frequently updated, view.

Construction cost inflation has been elevated for some time, but recent pressures have intensified it. Material costs, steel, cement, timber, remain sensitive to global supply conditions and energy prices. Labour markets in many regions are tight. Supply chain disruption continues to affect both cost and timing of repairs.

What complicates matters is that “inflation” is not a single input into actuarial models. Building costs, contents costs, labour rates, and logistics all move differently. Additional living expenses are influenced not just by repair duration, but by broader cost-of-living pressures.

Treating inflation as a uniform assumption risks masking these dynamics. More granular approaches, separating building and contents, incorporating regional variation, and explicitly modelling repair time inflation, are becoming increasingly necessary.

There are also emerging behavioural effects. Households under financial strain may defer maintenance, increasing the likelihood of certain types of claims. Changes in heating or energy usage can alter risk profiles in less visible ways. These are not easily captured in historical data, but they are relevant to forward-looking assumptions.

That assumption is now under strain. When key drivers of loss cost, fuel, materials, labour, can shift meaningfully within months, waiting for the next formal review cycle introduces lag. By the time assumptions are updated, the underlying environment may already have moved again.

This does not imply that pricing should become reactive in an uncontrolled way. Governance remains critical, particularly in regulated markets. But it does suggest that the frequency of monitoring, and the ability to translate updated insights into pricing decisions, needs to increase.

Leading indicators become more important in this context. Fuel prices, commodity indices, wage data, and supply chain metrics can provide earlier signals of trend movement than claims data alone. The challenge is integrating these signals in a way that is both analytically robust and operationally usable.

Scenario analysis is not new to actuarial work, but it often sits somewhat separately from core pricing processes. In the current environment, that separation is becoming harder to justify. Pricing assumptions increasingly need to reflect a range of plausible futures, not just a single expected path. What happens if inflation moderates within 12 months? What if it remains elevated across multiple underwriting cycles? How do these scenarios affect not just pricing, but reserving and capital requirements?

For longer-tail business in particular, the compounding effect of sustained inflation can be significant. Ignoring that risk, or treating it as a sensitivity rather than a central consideration, can lead to material mispricing.

This is where technology is becoming central to actuarial effectiveness. In many organisations, the gap is not a lack of models or data, but the fragmentation between them. Assumptions are updated in one environment, validated in another, and deployed through a separate pricing infrastructure. Each step introduces delay. In a stable environment, that delay is tolerable. In a volatile one, it becomes material.

The same applies to the use of external signals. While actuaries increasingly recognise the value of leading indicators - fuel prices, commodity indices, labour costs - these are often monitored outside core pricing workflows, rather than embedded within them. As a result, insight does not translate cleanly into action.

This is where advances in analytics and AI are beginning to change the shape of actuarial work. AI is not replacing actuarial judgement, nor is it solving the problem of uncertainty. Its value lies elsewhere: in identifying patterns earlier, surfacing shifts in data that may not yet be fully credible, and enabling faster iteration of scenarios. Machine learning techniques can complement traditional actuarial approaches by detecting non-linear relationships and emerging trends across large, fragmented datasets.

Equally important is the operational layer. Modern pricing platforms are reducing the friction between insight and execution - allowing actuaries to test, validate, and deploy changes more quickly, while maintaining appropriate governance controls. The challenge is not model sophistication; it is governed deployment.

This is particularly visible in long-duration products such as annuities, where pricing precision is often high, but implementation cycles remain slow. In these contexts, the ability to apply intelligence consistently - and repeatedly - within a controlled framework is as important as the underlying assumptions themselves.

Across both general insurance and life, the competitive edge is shifting. It is less about who has access to more data, and more about who can operationalise that data faster.

Second, greater use of disaggregated data and external indicators to understand what is driving loss costs, rather than relying solely on historical averages. Third, a more explicit integration of scenario thinking into pricing, particularly where uncertainty around key drivers is high.

And finally, a focus on the operational side of actuarial work, how insights are turned into decisions, and how quickly those decisions can be implemented. None of this removes the need for judgement. If anything, it increases it. Data alone will not resolve the ambiguity inherent in the current environment. But the framework within which that judgement is applied needs to evolve.

Volatility is a structural feature of the global landscape. The actuarial response to it cannot rely on static assumptions and infrequent adjustment. Pricing, in effect, needs to be in motion. Ultimately, the goal is not just to react to volatility, but to build the capability to continuously adapt as conditions evolve. That is as much an operational and technological challenge as it is an actuarial one, in a world that is not standing still.

The Broadstone Sirius Index has published its June tracking for a ‘growth focused’ and a more conservative ‘matching focused’ investment strategy against a low dependency basis. Both schemes started 90.0% funded at the start of 2026.

Reporting its update for June 2026, the Broadstone Sirius Index found that the ‘growth focused’ scheme performed best through the month, increasing its funding level by 0.8 percentage points to 93.1%.

The funding level of the ‘matching focused’ scheme increased by a slightly lower 0.5 percentage points from 89.4% at the end of May to 89.9% at the end of June to nearly reach its funding position at the start of the year.

The ‘growth focused’ scheme has generally outperformed the ‘matching focus’ scheme since April thanks to strong performance from return-seeking assets and tightening credit markets.

Chris Rice, Head of Trustee Services at Broadstone, commented: “Pension schemes can generally be expected to have improved their funding positions throughout June.

“Thankfully, the political uncertainty and impending change of Prime Minister has not spooked the bond markets which has allowed pension scheme funding to remain stable. Growth assets also performed well in June which has contributed to positive scheme funding progression, especially in the scheme with a stronger focus on these types of investment.”

Broadstone’s DB Redress Tracker follows the example of an individual who left their scheme in 2018 aged 50, with a pension of £10,000 p.a. which would receive inflation-linked increases when in payment. The potential spread around the example case has been updated to reflect the largest loss and gain in a notional portfolio of cases (previously it showed a narrower spread based on varying the fund return for the single example case).

The Tracker is developed in line with Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) rules for calculating redress with the individual assumed to have invested their funds to earn returns in line with the FTSE UK Private Investor Income Total Return Index.

The most recent update for Q3 2026 finds that a clear gain continues to be expected in most cases meaning that no redress is payable as the consumer is judged to be better off as a result of transferring. The central estimate for Q3 2026 is a gain of £59,000, markedly higher than the gain of around £40,000 in the tracker for the previous three quarters.

The increase in the gain has largely been caused by strong investment returns over Q2 2006 and a reduction in future inflation expectations which lowers the calculated value of the DB benefits given up on the pension transfer.

The last time that the Tracker found compensation would be payable was Q4 2024 (c.£2,000) with the central estimate showing a clear and sustained downward trend over recent times. Just over three years ago, when the current FCA rules were introduced, the central estimate found that c.£56,000 (Q2 2023) would be payable.

The central result hides the fact that there will be cases which do result in a loss which would mean that redress is payable. The reasons why a case might result in a loss are varied but typically arise from unusual investment strategies post transfer or older transfers (for example, before 2010).

Simon Robinson, Senior Consultant & Actuary in Broadstone’s Insurance Advisory & Remediation division, commented: “Markets experienced a quarter of significant volatility following the conflict in Iran, yet strong investment returns and a reduction in inflation expectations following an uneasy truce in the Middle East saw redress levels fall further. With DB transfer redress falling further, our central estimate continues to find that in the majority of cases, compensation would not be payable to consumers given the expectation of an increasing gain since their transfer.

“It is important to note that this estimate will not be uniform across all consumers. In some cases, factors such as investment performance or the time of transfer, for example, may result in redress being payable. It means that firms must remain diligent and asses each claim on its own merit rather than assuming no compensation will be due, despite the overall significant downtrend in redress calculations.”

In the run up to last year’s budget, pensions became a focal point of speculation, with widespread media and industry commentary suggesting that the long-standing 25% tax-free lump sum could be reduced or capped despite it being a key pillar of many people’s retirement plans. While no formal proposal was put forward, the absence of early clarity meant that rumours persisted for weeks, creating uncertainty among retirees and those approaching retirement.

This uncertainty was compounded by the wider fiscal backdrop, with the government under pressure to raise revenue and pensions frequently cited as an area of potential reform. At the same time, Labour had pledged not to raise income tax, national insurance and VAT.

As a result, many retirees appear to have interpreted the lack of reassurance as a signal that a change to pensions tax free cash was likely, prompting pre-emptive withdrawals to lock in existing rules.

The findings come at a time of political uncertainty, and the rapidly changing rumour mill has clear parallels with the kind of speculation seen ahead of recent budgets. It serves as a reminder of how quickly sustained rumour and conjecture can influence behaviour, and why avoiding a repeat in future fiscal events should be a priority.

The research also explored how the tax-free cash was used, with responses varying widely. Some 15% said they spent the money on renovations or home improvements, while the same proportion used it to cover healthcare or other costs. 14% each said they gifted it to grandchildren or great-grandchildren or towards their education, or used it to meet day-to-day living costs.

The findings highlight how speculation around potential policy changes can prompt rushed decisions that may not always be in people’s long-term financial interests.

Jon Greer, head of retirement policy at Quilter, said: “This data shows how speculation ahead of last year’s budget led many retirees to act out of fear of losing what is a vital component of their retirement provision rather than genuine need at that moment. The fact so many regret doing so highlights the real harm that can come from making decisions driven by rumour.

“This research underlines just how sensitive retirement planning has become to continuous budget speculation. Those saving towards and planning their retirement need and deserve certainty, and there should be a clear commitment to avoid another prolonged period of speculation ahead of future budgets.

“The Chancellor only ruled out changes to the tax-free lump sum in the final days before the budget, by which point the damage had already been done – this cannot be repeated in the run up to the 2026 budget. Allowing rumours to fill the gap for weeks or months risks undermining confidence in plans that may have been laid for decades and leading to poorer outcomes. Earlier and clearer communication could have avoided a lot of unnecessary worry and poor decision-making, and that lesson must be taken into future budgets.

“These findings also reinforce the value of seeking professional financial advice. Having a clear plan in place can help people stay focused on their long-term goals, rather than reacting to headlines and making choices they could later regret.”

The FCA is now calling on all pension providers to consider the report and take on the good practice identified. The regulator is also engaging with firms on barriers they face in improving the value for customers, particularly in closed books.

Charlotte Clark, director of cross-cutting policy and strategy at the FCA, said: "Consumers in older products should not be left behind, and the good news is that some firms are already showing it doesn't have to be this way. We want to see that progress reflected right across the market.”

This work supports wider reforms, including targeted support and pensions dashboards, to help consumers get the most from their pensions. It is also a priority under the FCA’s Pensions Regulatory Priorities and forms part of its broader work on modernising pensions and long-term savings.

With Fed Chair Kevin Warsh making it clear that he considers inflation to be too high during his appearance at the central bankers' forum in Sintra, Portugal, it's reinforced expectations that further rate hikes could still be on the way in the US. Although he stopped short of signalling what the Fed might do at its next meeting, it's clear policymakers aren't yet ready to declare victory over inflation.

Higher interest rates reduce the appeal of growth stocks, which have soared to heady heights because they chip away at the value of future earnings. That set off a fresh bout of selling, with investors banking some profits while fearing further falls, and the Nasdaq leading declines. Polar Capital Technology Trust and Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust, listed in London, are among the biggest fallers in early trade as sentiment towards the big technology names has deteriorated.

The caution has been most evident across Asia, where the technology sector has come under deep pressure. Shares in Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix have fallen sharply after US memory chip giant Micron slid more than 10%, despite delivering results ahead of expectations only last week. After this year's powerful AI-fuelled rally, expectations have become exceptionally high and any niggle of concern is amplified into sharp downward moves. Even though the longer-term outlook for AI infrastructure spending remains robust and mega earnings are still rolling in, valuations have become so stretched that they're starting to snap back as more tempered forecasts for demand replace some of the feverish speculation.

Attention is now firmly focused on today's US non-farm payrolls report, which could prove pivotal for market sentiment. After a string of resilient economic data, another strong jobs reading or firmer wage growth would reinforce concerns that the US economy risks overheating. Hopes that a Goldilocks scenario might emerge -not too hot, not too cold - are increasingly looking like a fairy tale, particularly with spending on AI infrastructure still running at such an intense pace. Investors remain wary, markets volatile, and today's jobs snapshot could determine whether the latest wobble develops into a broader pullback.

Currys has kept the tills ringing despite geopolitical tensions and energy worries threatening to dent consumer confidence. While many other retailers are finding shoppers tightening their purse strings, Currys has demonstrated that much of the technology it sells has become less of a luxury and more of a household essential. Consumers may delay upgrading a television, but when a washing machine or laptop packs up, or a mobile contract comes up for renewal, those purchases are much harder to put on hold.

That resilience is reflected in today's numbers, with group revenues climbing 6% to £9.25 billion and adjusted pre-tax profits surging 18% to £191 million. Strong cash generation has given management the confidence to double the full-year dividend to 3p a share and launch another £50 million share buyback.

Currys is also steadily building more engines of earnings through higher-margin recurring services, credit products and its fast-growing iD Mobile business. Services revenues rose 7%, credit sales increased 10% to £1.2 billion and iD Mobile subscribers jumped 18% to 2.6 million. Those recurring revenue streams act as valuable shock absorbers, helping smooth out the bumps in demand for other product lines.

There is also some welcome relief finally emerging for consumers. After months of watching every penny amid the energy price shock triggered by the Iran conflict, oil prices have retreated to around their pre-conflict levels and drivers are already seeing respite at the pumps. Diesel prices have recorded their biggest monthly fall in more than a quarter of a century as easing tensions in the Middle East have taken the heat out of oil markets. That should leave motorists with a little more money in their pockets and could also provide a boost for hard-hit sectors such as hospitality, which has struggled as household budgets have been squeezed.

Despite the strong results, the shares have eased back, with investors perhaps disappointed guidance wasn't upgraded and maybe taking the opportunity to bank profits after the recent recovery in the share price. The planned handover from CEO Alex Baldock to Fredrik Tønnesen, who has successfully run the fast-growing Nordics business, is also more of a baton pass than a change of direction, and with continuity expected, its unlikely to be a trigger for a share price fall.

Holidaymakers heading across the Channel are also getting a helping hand from the foreign exchange markets. Sterling has strengthened to around €1.17, helped by expectations that UK interest rates could remain relatively higher than those in the eurozone for longer, while lower energy prices have also improved the outlook for the UK economy. It means British tourists should find their pounds stretch further for everything from restaurant meals to sightseeing and souvenirs this summer. They may be small wins, but after the prolonged squeeze on household finances they could gradually help rebuild consumer confidence.”

A total of 258,000 new individual claims were paid last year and the average claim was £19,300 – up 2% on 2024.

A record £209 million was paid out for all types of individual income protection claims in 2025, up 2% from the previous year’s record. The average claim also increased 7% to reach £10,700. In the last year, 7,600 people were able to return to work with the support of these payouts as well as increasingly available insurer-provided health services.

Almost two-thirds (65%) of critical illness claims were for cancer, up 3% compared to 2024. The average payout in 2025 was £67,000, demonstrating just how impactful cover can be.

Rebecca Ward, Assistant Director and Head of Health and Protection at the ABI, said: "Protection insurance remains a cornerstone of financial resilience, helping customers and their loved ones navigate life’s most difficult moments. Each year, income protection, critical illness and life insurance policies provide vital financial support to thousands of people facing bereavement, illness or injury. With modern products increasingly including health benefits, the sector is also helping people remain economically active and in work – directly supporting the Government’s ambition to keep Britain working and drive economic growth.”

Breakdown of combined individual and group claims using data from the ABI and GRiD

News

From steel and aluminium to gold and silver, commodity prices have come under fresh pressure as expectations of higher US interest rates have strengthened the dollar, making metals priced in dollars more expensive for overseas buyers. At the same time, a combination of cooling demand and swelling supplies is piling on more pressure. Steel prices have fallen as activity has been sluggish on Chinese construction sites, while at the same time the EU has tightened import restrictions. Aluminium has hit its lowest level in more than four months amid hopes that increased shipments from the Middle East and rising production in Asia will ease supply constraints.

Gold has lost yet more of its lustre, with the precious metal falling out of favour as investors are lured towards higher-yielding assets. Bullion has fallen to around $3,790 an ounce, extending its sharp retreat from the record highs reached earlier this year, as a run of resilient US economic data has cemented expectations that the Federal Reserve still has scope to raise interest rates. Stronger jobs data and stubborn inflation have reinforced the view that rates are likely to stay higher for longer, pushing up Treasury yields and the dollar, while taking some of the shine off gold.

Gold may glitter as a safe haven during periods of heightened uncertainty, but it's far from immune to volatility. The precious metal tends to bask in demand when nerves are on edge, but its fortunes can quickly tarnish when expectations for interest rates change, which they have recently. Because gold offers no income, it becomes less attractive when bond yields rise, and investors can secure higher returns elsewhere. That's why investors shouldn't put all their eggs in a golden basket. Gold can play an important role in a well-balanced portfolio, helping to provide diversification and a degree of protection during periods of market stress, but as these recent moves show, relying too heavily on any single asset can leave investors exposed when sentiment turns.

JD Sports is under pressure after a lacklustre update from Nike, which its fortunes are so closely intertwined with. While Nike's latest results were broadly in line with expectations, guidance for flat revenues suggests the road back to full fitness won't be a sprint but more of a marathon. That's a headache for JD Sports given Nike remains one of its biggest brand partners, and indicates it could be hard yards ahead for sales. While shoppers are still filling supermarket baskets, they appear to be thinking twice before ordering new trainers and sportswear, in an uncertain economic climate.

Associated British Foods has also slipped after a bit of a sour update from its sugar division, with the group warning losses will be deeper than previously expected as higher energy costs linked to the conflict in the Middle East bite into profitability. Primark remains the jewel in the crown and its planned separation from the wider group looks strategically sound given this volatility from the sugar division. It strengthens the argument that the discount fashion chain deserves to stand on its own two feet rather than having its valuation diluted by the more cyclical fortunes of the food and sugar businesses.

There are glimmers of hope today that the UK housing market may finally be finding its footing. Nationwide's latest figures showed annual house price growth accelerated to 2.2% in June, up from 1.7% in May, as easing mortgage rates helped improve affordability. After data showed homes have been lingering on the market for many months and many sellers are having to accept lower offers, there are early indications that buyers may slowly be venturing back off the sidelines. Investors will want to see stronger reservation rates feeding through to the listed housebuilders' order books before judging that the sector has turned a corner, but if borrowing costs continue to edge lower amid hopes the Bank of England will be restrained in hiking rates, there could be more light at the end of the tunnel.

However, optimism has been subdued by lingering legal uncertainty, with shares in Taylor Wimpey, Persimmon and Barratt Redrow falling back as investors continue to assess the potential implications of a proposed multi-billion-pound class action against several of the UK's biggest housebuilders. While the case still requires approval from the Competition Appeal Tribunal and the companies strongly deny wrongdoing, it's another dark cloud hanging over a sector which was only just beginning to glimpse brighter skies. Given that the certification process alone could take many months, that uncertainty isn't likely to lift any time soon.

Wall Street also looks set for a more subdued session, with futures pointing to declines for both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq after yesterday's strong gains. After the recent rally, investors are catching a breath, with profit-taking looking likely as attention turns back to the outlook for US interest rates. Markets are slipping back into wait-and-see mode ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's appearance on the ECB Forum on Central Banking policy panel in Sintra, Portugal, where investors will be searching for fresh clues about how much further rates may need to rise. Thursday's closely watched non-farm payrolls report is also looming large. Another robust jobs reading or stronger-than-expected wage growth could reinforce expectations that the US economy is resilient enough to withstand higher borrowing costs, keeping pressure on Treasury yields. With bond markets and equities finely balanced, one stronger-than-expected payrolls report could quickly upset the recent calm.”

Survey respondents pinpointed the following areas where they are most likely to seek support in future:

Sam says: “We see from the survey that IPTs are looking for advisers to help them navigate risk transfers. The market has recently opened up to smaller schemes following a period in which few insurers provided quotations, a development that is particularly noticeable to First Actuarial as we specialise in transactions below £150m.

“Another finding that stands out is data – administration is finally having a moment. Some schemes are struggling to manage business as usual while addressing member data quality, procuring suitable systems and recruiting administrators with relevant experience.”

The pressures confronting trustee boards are reflected in findings around IPTs’ preferred support channels. 62% of IPTs prefer to engage with advisers through live online training sessions and webinars. It seems that live webinars give IPTs live interaction with advisers that they can squeeze into their working day, unlike a full in-person event.

The survey also revealed the qualities that surveyed IPTs valued most in advisers:

Sam concludes: “IPTs play an important role in the pensions world. Whereas a member-nominated trustee may only work with one or two actuaries or administration teams in their career, an IPT may be working with up to 10 at a time. They know what a good adviser looks like and what reasonable costs are. It turns out that IPTs rate First Actuarial’s services highly. 96% of survey respondents rated their overall experience of working with us as at least 7 out of 10. This survey will help us meet their ongoing expectations.”

First Actuarial | Independent Professional Trustee Survey 2026

During the past year, TPR has worked closely with the government, the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA), and industry to prepare for new standards introduced by the Pension Schemes Act 2026, which will reshape the landscape.

Aligned with this shift, TPR has refreshed its approach to scheme oversight and supervision to be more focused, effective and efficient. Early, expert-led engagement has resulted in a greater understanding of risks, at a scheme and system-wide level. This enables TPR to target our regulatory interventions better, supporting schemes to achieve high standards of governance and compliance with less regulatory burden.

Interim Chair Kirstin Baker said: “We are focused on protecting members, strengthening the pensions system and encouraging innovation where it supports better long-term outcomes. Our annual report demonstrates how TPR is adapting to a more complex and fast-moving environment – integrating data-driven approaches into our oversight, deepening our scrutiny of governance and investments decisions, and working with government to drive value.”

TPR CEO Nausicaa Delfas said: “Our focus now is on implementation of the reform agenda for pensions, preparing the market for the changes to come whilst delivering for members today. We have clear priorities to raise standards of governance, drive better value for money and ensure greater support at-retirement. And to make this happen, we will continue to evolve our approach, becoming more efficient and effective as a regulator.”

The Annual Report and Accounts highlights key achievements including:

• Our work with the Department for Work and Pensions, FCA and industry to develop and consult on the regulatory framework for value for money and support the development of legislation.
• Supporting and driving defined contribution (DC) consolidation through direct engagement with small schemes and published guidance to support them in exiting the market. 2025 saw a 15% year-on-year reduction in DC schemes, while assets grew from £205 billion to £249 billion.
• Maintaining high levels of employer compliance with automatic enrolment duties, at above 97%.
• Getting schemes dashboards-ready with more than 1,300 schemes and providers now connected to the central digital architecture for pensions dashboards representing more than 40 million members.
• Working with trustees and the Fraud Compensation Fund so that more than 2,000 victims of scams received more than £81.5 million in compensation.
• Reducing regulatory burden and enabling master trusts to release investment for innovation, with the completion of our regulatory capital review and updated reserving guidance, with £15 million in excess reserving estimated to have been freed up so far (as of 31 March this year).
• Launching our innovation service to discuss and trial pensions innovation ideas with the industry, with 26 discussion sessions undertaken to enable innovators to discuss the early stages of an idea.
• Implementing the new defined benefit funding regime, with valuations now being received via our Submit a Scheme Valuation service.
• Strengthened our digital, data and technology capabilities, driving efficiency, automation and innovation.

Brent crude has inched down again, a measure of hope that negotiations will advance, even though the situation remains somewhat unpredictable. Control of the Strait of Hormuz is set to remain a sticking point in discussions amid concerns that tolls could be imposed after the 60-day free-transit grace period has expired.

The latest assessment of UK economic health also provides some reassurance that the economy is still eking out growth. The pound has risen a little but is still languishing around $1.32, sharply down from this year’s highs back in January of around $1.38. The snapshot shows the economy is hardly firing on all cylinders. While first-quarter growth held steady at 0.6%, the downward revision to annual growth to 0.9% is a reminder that the recovery remains fragile. Encouragingly, business investment and exports were revised higher, suggesting companies are still prepared to commit capital despite high levels of unpredictability on the global and domestic scene. However, the economy continues to rely heavily on consumer and government spending to fuel growth. If Andy Burnham does get the keys to Number 10, he'll face a supremely tricky balancing act. While his vision outlined yesterday to power up growth in the regions may resonate politically, it was light on detail about how productivity, private investment and skills shortages would be tackled in practice. Investors will be looking for a clearer roadmap showing how growth can be boosted sustainably without unsettling bond markets or putting further strain on already stretched public finances.

Sainsbury's results are like a mirror image of what’s happening when it comes to spending across the wider UK economy. While grocery sales remained robust, reflecting continued spending on essentials, weaker performance at Argos and across clothing and general merchandise suggests consumers are still hesitant to splash out on discretionary purchases. Concerns about the impact of the Iran war are still bubbling away in the background, with households bracing for higher bills, and that's also likely to have an impact on spending patterns. While Sainsbury's has maintained its full-year profit guidance, the repercussions from the Middle East conflict still may not have fully fed through, with the company highlighting continued uncertainty ahead.

The retailer has been helped by some timely tailwinds, with the heatwave driving demand for fans, summer food, drinks and seasonal products, while the World Cup has boosted sales of large-screen TVs and party essentials. However, with Argos sales still slipping overall, it's clear these seasonal boosts haven't been enough to overcome wider consumer caution. Shoppers appear willing to spend on immediate needs and special occasions, but are still looking for value and carefully weighing up non-essential purchases.

Given its tech-light nature, the Footsie has largely missed out on the recovery party, which saw US-listed tech stocks sharply rebound after last week’s sell-off. There’s been plenty of opportunistic buying going on, and Amazon’s addition to the Dow Jones helped lift spirits further. While Amazon joining the famous index is largely symbolic, inclusion in one of the world's best-known stock market indices can boost visibility, reinforce investor confidence and generate some buying from funds that track the Dow. However, the bigger factor is still likely to be sentiment-driven, with investors hopeful that, with some inflationary pressures easing due to lower energy prices, and earnings season approaching, there could be more upside to come for the sector. A bit more caution is creeping in ahead of the closely watched monthly jobs snapshot due to land on Thursday, with US indices set for a flat start to trading. The non-farm payrolls report is arriving a day early due to the Friday holiday, and will be a gauge of how hot the economy is running. May’s numbers came in much stronger than expected, with 172,000 new hires compared with 85,000 forecast. While hiring is expected to slow a little in June, the World Cup may obscure the picture, with a temporary uplift in workers needed to cater for armies of fans. So the rate of wage growth is likely to be the figure investors will lock onto, and if it beats expectations of 3.5% year on year, it could ignite fresh worries about how high interest rates may go.”

If we narrow the lens to consider the investment aspects of a DC default strategy in some of the largest overseas DC markets, it is clear that there’s no particular global consensus on the best approach to adopt (despite appearing to be broad agreement on the overarching objective to help members achieve income adequacy and sustainability throughout retirement). Notably, the Australian government is currently working to enshrine in law the purpose of their superannuation system with the proposed objective being to “preserve savings to deliver income for a dignified retirement, alongside government support, in an equitable and sustainable way”1.

From an investment perspective, it is apparent that what emerges as typical best practice (or at least the industry standard) in any given region tends to be heavily influenced on how that particular market has evolved over time, as the disparity across regions highlighted by the table below demonstrates.

Source: Mercer internal research.

It’s worth noting that, despite the significant changes experienced by the UK DC market since the introduction of auto enrolment, it is still relatively new when compared to the more mature DC markets such as Australia and the US. For example, the Australian superannuation system is now 30 years old and an astounding A$3.5 trillion (£1.9 trillion) in DC assets. Given a population of just 26 million – it is a great deal larger than that of the UK in asset size, for less than half of the population2. The Australian DC market has also benefited from a much higher minimum contribution rate (12% from 2025 versus a UK rate of 8% of qualifying earnings for auto enrolment), albeit the minimum contribution in Australia did start out lower at 3-4% in 1993.

These factors combined mean that different region specific norms and constraints have evolved when it comes to designing DC defaults in each of these countries. This emphasises how there is no ‘one size fits all’ approach to default design. However, we can still learn a lot from other DC markets across the globe when we look to designing the defaults of UK schemes. In particular, through utilising Mercer’s capabilities for DC in the global context we can design the solutions in the UK which aim to provide better member outcomes. One notable example of this is the use of illiquid assets in the Australian market – where defaults typically have around a 15-20% allocation to illiquid assets. Clearly, in the UK there is a long way to go before the majority of schemes adopt a material allocation to illiquid assets, however we can take learnings for the Australian market when we look to consider some of the benefits and challenges of investing in illiquid assets and ultimately how this could help drive better outcomes for members in retirement.

(1) Mercer CFA Institute Global Pension Index 2023

Brent crude has risen above $72 a barrel, after strikes were reported on ships in the Strait of Hormuz and the US military retaliated. But gains appear to be capped, given that talks are still expected to go ahead between the US and Iran in Doha tomorrow.

Inevitably, with the threat of attacks hanging over the Strait, it’s still a tense time for shipowners. While the key waterway may have reopened, it’s far from business as usual. Shipowners are still navigating an uneasy route, with elevated war-risk insurance premiums and lingering bottlenecks adding to the cost of transit. Another cloud hanging over the waterway is the prospect of tolls for passing through the strait. Although vessels are currently getting through without charge under the temporary agreement, Iranian officials have continued to hint that "service fees" could be introduced once the 60-day period expires. Whether those proposals ever become reality is far from certain, given the legal and diplomatic hurdles involved, but even the possibility is enough to keep shipping companies on edge. It’s another reminder that while the immediate threat has eased, the risk premium attached to one of the world’s most important trade arteries is unlikely to disappear overnight.

Investors will be looking for clues about the direction of interest rates from central bankers due to speak at the ECB Forum on central banking held in Sintra, Portugal, this week. Leaders, including Fed Chair Kevin Warsh and ECB President Christine Lagarde, are scheduled to speak, and investors will want to glean what they can about how far rates might be hiked.

The prospects of higher borrowing costs are concentrating minds, particularly in the US, given how higher rates affect the value of future earnings, upon which so many heady tech valuations are based. Today though investors appear to be taking a glass-half-full approach, with stocks on Wall Street set for a rebound. There will be some opportunistic buying going on, given the recent wobble, as hopes that bumper revenues will keep on rolling in overtake concerns about how high share prices have reached. The delay to OpenAI’s hugely anticipated listing appeared to be the trigger for a fresh sell-off at the end of last week. The company behind ChatGPT is believed to be leaning towards an IPO early next year instead. It’s eyeing a $1 trillion valuation and wants clear water between the SpaceX launch, which has been wracked with volatility, before it attempts to go to market. Bets are now increasing on rival Anthropic launching on the Nasdaq first, as it edges ahead in its paper valuation, and enthusiasm about its enterprise-first focused model. Given the higher demand right now for more predictable revenues, Anthropic has the edge given its secured raft of corporate contracts, rather than OpenAI’s more fickle consumer-based demand.”

However, the level of awareness is low. Almost one-third of people have no idea how this change might affect them and their family. Wealthier people are more likely to have an idea – only 3% of additional rate taxpayers didn’t know. This compares to 23% of higher rate taxpayers and 35% of those paying tax at basic rate. This is understandable as the more you earn, the more assets you are likely to have. But if you own your own home, and have a decent pension, then it’s something you need to be aware of so you can prepare, and perhaps, more importantly, make your family aware of any potential bill they may have to deal with.

Inheritance tax can become an issue if your estate is worth more than £325,000. Added to this, if you are looking to pass down the family home to a child or grandchild, you have a residential nil rate band worth £175,000 that you can use. Married couples and civil partners have extra flexibilities in that assets of any value can be passed between them without being subject to inheritance tax. They can also inherit unused portions of each other’s nil rate bands. This means that a widow/er can potentially pass on an estate worth up to £1m before worrying about inheritance tax.

However, it’s important to add that these flexibilities do not apply to cohabiting couples. You can live together for decades but, when one partner dies, there’s potential for a nasty surprise bill at an already difficult time. Worryingly, almost 40% of cohabitees remain in the dark about how these changes might impact them.

It’s important to think about how the change might affect you and your family - if you think there could be a liability you can put a plan in place. Any inheritance tax needs to be paid by the end of the sixth month after the person dies. After this interest can be charged. Good communication between all parties is important so people know a bill may need to be paid and by what means.

You may also wish to reduce your liability by starting to gift away assets while you are still alive. This gives you the opportunity to help your loved ones sooner. It also means you can see how they deal with the extra cash and this might determine whether you give them anything else in future. However, you need to take a long-term view as you don’t want to risk giving away too much too soon and leave yourself struggling in later life.

Gifts of any value can be given and will pass out of your estate after seven years - these are known as potentially exempt transfers. There are also various other allowances that mean the money falls out of your estate for inheritance tax immediately. These include the £3,000 annual exemption. There’s also gifting out of surplus income rules, that enable gifts of any size to be made and leave your estate for inheritance tax purposes immediately. To qualify they need to be made from income, not capital, be made regularly, and not impact your standard of living. It’s important that you document your gifting behaviour and working with an adviser can help you stay the right side of the rules.”

This comes at a time when the NHS continues to manage significant demand, with many people exploring a range of options to access the care they need. The data also reveals that 43% of UK adults accessed at least one private healthcare service in the last six months, with nearly half (49%) expecting waiting times to increase over the next six months.

While a quarter of private healthcare users (24%) were able to use an insurance product to fund their treatment, almost one in five (19%) turned to credit cards or personal loans – highlighting that many are relying on borrowing to access private healthcare. Men are also more likely than women to have used a credit card or personal loan to cover the cost of private healthcare (23% vs 15%).

When it comes to age groups, younger adults are far more likely to have used private healthcare in the last six months, with 60% of 18 to 34-year-olds using private healthcare compared to just 25% of those aged 55 and over. Mental health services in particular show a clear generational divide, with 17% of 25 to 34-year-olds accessing support compared to just 3% of those aged 55 and over.

Dawn Prescott, Head of Healthcare Proposition at The Exeter, said: "These findings highlight that many people are thinking carefully about how they would access care if needed, particularly within a system managing high levels of demand. With a third of UK adults uncertain about how quickly or easily they would be able to access care, this suggests that many people are considering their options.

“The fact that nearly one in five are funding private treatment through credit or a loan suggests that for many, that concern is already translating into action without the right financial foundation in place. Raising awareness of what healthcare insurance policies can provide can help people take a more planned approach. As views on NHS provision remain mixed, helping ensure people have access to appropriate cover before a health need arises can support better preparation for the future."

Sean Kennedy, Director at Usay Compare, said: “These findings strongly reflect what we see at Usay Compare every day. Many customers come to us after experiencing delays in accessing NHS care, and often after they’ve already started paying for treatment themselves.

What frequently surprises them is that private medical insurance can be more affordable than they expected, particularly when compared with the cost of self-funding care. One of the most common things we hear is ‘I wish I’d looked into this sooner’. Having cover in place before a health issue arises not only provides peace of mind but helps people avoid difficult financial decisions when they need care most.”

The sell-off in tech stocks has resumed after some brief mid-week respite, with Asian indices plunging dramatically. The Nikkei slid by 5% and South Korea’s Kospi, the home of semiconductor heavyweights Samsung and SK Hynix, dived by 8%. With valuations so stretched, even a slight turn in sentiment shows up in big moves. Right now, investors are highly sensitive to worries about how long the voracious demand for chips to power the AI revolution will last.

The triggers setting off this latest wave of selling are rate hike fright and supply chain fears. The fight for memory chips, which has pushed up prices to eye-watering levels, is showing up in sharp increases for end-users, with Apple and Microsoft forced to hike prices for devices and consoles. There’s a feeling that there’s only so long this can go on for, with companies also baulking at the high cost of tokens used to pay for the use of large language models. Firms are seeing AI expenses soar higher than planned budgets, as employees max out use, at a time when subsidised AI use is ending. With the scalers having to swallow huge sums to pay for the infrastructure needed, they are trying to pass on the costs to customers, and some are baulking already. Investors remain unconvinced that consumers will keep paying higher prices for Apple’s products despite the strength of the brand.

The ramp-up in inflation in the US is also hurting sentiment. Far from rate cuts, as hoped for earlier in the year, rate hikes look firmly on the table. A higher interest-rate environment hurts the value of future earnings, upon which many of big tech’s valuations are based.

Gold is also a casualty of rate hike expectations, plunging below $4,000 an ounce before recovering slightly. As the dollar has strengthened, it’s made gold, priced in the currency, less attractive, but it also highlights the opportunity cost of the asset. It offers no returns, and at a time when investors are searching for steady incomes amid this volatile backdrop, it’s fallen out of fashion.

Bitcoin is deep in polar bear market territory. A crypto winter has descended, and Bitcoin has hit the skids again this week on the frozen landscape. It’s fallen another 5% and is down 44% on the year. There are only so many risks investors are prepared to take, and with high bets being placed on potential AI winners and losers, there’s less to wager in the crypto world. The fever about AI developments and how they will change society is eclipsing speculation about the future place of Bitcoin in the financial ecosystem. It also comes as focus has shifted towards stablecoins, which many in the industry see as the electronic lifeblood which will power the emerging ecosystem of autonomous AI agents.

Bitcoin has also suffered as the "Trump bump" that initially supercharged the market has well and truly slumped. The grand promises of making America the world's crypto capital have yet to translate into the kind of market momentum many investors had hoped for, despite executive orders establishing a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and U.S. Digital Asset Stockpile. Instead, renewed inflation fears, exacerbated by the conflict in the Middle East, are paving the way for higher interest rates, which are freezing out speculative capital.”

Brent crude has dipped to around $72 a barrel, close to levels seen before the US strikes on Iran. The chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz has been released, tanker traffic is flowing more freely, and supply concerns are fading. There’s still a long way to go to clear the backlog and fully meet demand, but with oil-producing nations turning on the taps and repairs to infrastructure ongoing, oil prices are on the decline. Energy efficiency measures adopted during the crisis, coupled with fears of slowing global growth, are contributing to the bearish outlook for the sector.

However, one energy shock is replacing another as far as Europe is concerned as it languishes under a punishing heatwave. Peak evening wholesale electricity prices have reached multi-year highs in several European markets this week. Offices and public buildings are cranking up cooling systems, while portable air conditioners and fans are being switched on as people try to cope with the record-breaking heat. At the same time, nuclear power production has been curtailed in France as river temperatures have risen, limiting cooling capacity at some reactors. Wind power production has also dropped as the persistent high-pressure weather system lingers over the continent.

With demand for electricity rising amid supply constraints, it’s pushing up costs for businesses and adding pressure to already stretched energy systems. The stress on the grid has prompted the restart of gas-fired power stations in the UK, with NESO, the grid operator, paying producers millions of pounds this week to help maintain comfortable reserve margins and avoid supply shortfalls.

The relatively subdued start expected for European indices compared with peers in New York and Asia may partly reflect concerns about the repercussions of the heatwave, as soaring wholesale electricity prices add another layer of pressure for businesses already grappling with a weak growth environment. The FTSE 100 is set to lag, as the tech-light make-up of the index means it won’t benefit as much from the surge in AI optimism, while energy giants may weigh on sentiment as oil prices continue their decline.

This volatile week has taken another twist, with stocks in New York set to surge after the sell-off earlier in the week. Worries that revenues wouldn’t keep up with soaring tech valuations have been put to bed, at least for now, by Micron’s results. The memory chipmaker beat expectations, with quarterly revenues surging and the outlook buoyant as demand for AI-related memory chips continues to accelerate.

Indices in Asia were awash with optimism as demand for chips powering the AI revolution shows little sign of slowing down. The Nikkei jumped sharply and South Korea’s Kospi rose strongly, boosted by news that memory chipmaker SK Hynix is planning to add a Nasdaq listing to raise money for expansion and tap into voracious demand for AI investments among American investors.

It’s striking while the iron is hot. The company now commands a valuation of more than $1 trillion, with its share price having more than quadrupled over the past year. It is the leading supplier of high-bandwidth memory, which has seen extraordinary demand as AI infrastructure spending gathers pace. Right now, it is viewed as a critical supplier to the global AI ecosystem. But technology moves fast, and it remains far from clear how long SK Hynix can hang on to its privileged position with a scarce, high-margin product before competitors catch up and erode its edge."

While the data shows a price rise between March and May this year, car insurance premiums still recorded an annual fall of 5% (£38), with prices decreasing from £757 to £719, according to the longest established and most comprehensive car insurance price index in the UK. The index is based on price data compiled from over six million customer quotes per quarter.

Tim Rourke, EMEA P&C Leader, Insurance Consulting and Technology, said: “After a prolonged period of price reductions, this latest uptick suggests the market may be approaching an inflection point. While premiums remain below last year’s levels, underlying claims cost pressures have not gone away.

“Insurers continue to face repair cost inflation driven by vehicle complexity and supply chain disruption, as well as continued pressure from credit hire costs. If these cost trends persist, market profitability will come under even greater strain without premium increases over the remainder of 2026.”

Comprehensive Car Insurance – Quarterly Price Trends

Source: WTW / Confused.com Car Insurance Price Index. *Average values rounded to the nearest whole number.

Inner London was the only region where drivers experienced a price fall (0.4%) during the three months since February 2026, reducing their premiums from £1,093 to £1,088. All other regions across the UK recorded price increases over the same period.

Drivers in Northern Ireland saw the largest percentage increase in the cost of comprehensive car insurance, with a quarterly rise of 8% (£73) with average premiums increasing from £947 to £1,020. This is the first time average premiums in the region have passed the £1,000 mark since December 2023. The smallest quarterly increase was seen in the West Midlands, where drivers saw a rise of 0.1%, with average premiums now costing £860.

Most Expensive Regions in the UK

Source: WTW / Confused.com Car Insurance Price Index. *Average values rounded to nearest whole number.

More locally focused data shows motorists in West Central London benefited from the biggest quarterly fall in car insurance premiums. Prices dropped by 6% (£77), with premiums decreasing from £1,349 to £1,272, although it remains the country’s most expensive postcode. Drivers in Enfield saw a quarterly fall of 3% (£31), with average premiums now at £912 compared to £943 three months ago.

Despite a sharp quarterly rise of 8% (£33) in Llandrindod Wells, the Welsh town continues to be the cheapest place in the UK with prices on average now costing £471. Other towns where drivers continue to enjoy average premiums less than £500 include Shrewsbury (£498) and the South West England towns of Torquay (£482), Dorchester (£489) and Exeter (£490).

Drivers aged 50 and 51 saw the biggest quarterly price increases of 5% (£29) and 6% (£36) respectively, taking their average premiums to £611 and £610. At the other end of the spectrum, younger drivers benefited from some of the most substantial price falls. Drivers aged 22 benefited from a 5% quarterly price decrease, reducing their average premiums by £73 from £1,465 to £1,392. Drivers aged 17 saw the next biggest reduction in quarterly prices of 3% (£46), taking their average premiums to £1,695.

Steve Dukes, CEO at Confused.com comments: “While car insurance prices are still lower for customers shopping around now, our data shows this window is narrowing. Prices have been increasing now for a few months, and drivers could soon start to see this when they shop around or renew, which is when competitive pressure across the market will intensify.

“Claims payouts have increased since 2020, and that pressure isn't easing anytime soon. This makes it a critical moment for insurers to maximise their data capabilities, to be more competitive, more responsive, and better placed to win customers who are actively seeking value. The insurers who have invested seriously in data will be the ones who come out ahead.”

1 This latest quarterly data release by the WTW/Confused Car Insurance price Index covers the three-month period March 2026 to May 2026.

On average, only about 5% of people get it right (though I suspect - and hope - my sample of Actuarial Post readers will show meaningful selection bias and outperform). It’s clear that you need to turn over the A. Many people assume you need to turn over the 7, but there’s no reason every 7 must have an A on the other side, so it doesn’t help. But the 8 might have an A on the other side, which would disprove the theory.

Now there are plenty of general takeaways for cognitive biases more broadly, especially confirmation bias- but it hints at a perspective that we’re not as a species instinctively wired to look for counterexamples. We’re better at asking “what does it mean if this is right?” than “what does it mean if this is wrong?” Popperian thinking often takes conscious effort and built in processes. But at first glance, this doesn’t translate directly to finance- after all, if we examine data to test whether P implies Q, we can simply look for every time P has happened and check that way.

The trouble is, the data is finite. The history is what happened, or if you prefer, what happened to happen. It wasn’t inevitable, or the only way things could have gone. And that means that the thought process of stress testing your beliefs and trying to prove them wrong is still valuable.

For example, take the hypothesis “if IG credit does poorly, equities will do poorly too”. It’s easy to think of broad market crashes, such as 2008, where this is true, and that makes it seem very plausible. But if we think “how might equities outperform credit in a downmarket”, we might come up with more varied economic scenarios, such as dispersion. That is, if lots of companies do very badly and some do very well, equities will benefit from the upside of the latter group, while credit won’t. And equities have outperformed credit in scenarios like this, such as in early 2022[1]. If AI companies do very well while traditional companies fail, we could see this effect more extremely.

As a softer point, I find this way of thinking also helps unearth more hidden assumptions. In the example above, the question is itself loaded, as it may not be like for like. An investor looking to earn around £5 in excess returns, at current spread levels, might need to invest around £800 in credit; or might expect the same returns from around £170 in equity with £630 in cash. On that basis, it’s very easy to see a small equity holding losing less than a large credit holding.

As an intriguing aside, people are much better at answering the problem when it’s framed differently. For example:

Now the question becomes whom you should check to make sure no one under 18 is drinking beer. Almost everyone sees very quickly that you need to test the beer drinker (card A) and the 10-year old (card 8). Abstracted, the logic is identical, but we’re better at solving these problems when they’re framed in terms of adhering to social norms than when they’re framed in other terms. This is sometimes presented as evidence that we evolved our ability to do logic largely as a by product of increasingly complex social interactions, rather than any more straightforward path, such as the benefits of tool use. Whether that’s true or not though, our faculties certainly didn’t evolve for their ability to make strategic investment decisions, and we need all the mental tools we can get.

[1] S&P 500 vs ICE C0A0 index.

However, economies still won’t have felt the full effects of the surge in prices in the Spring feeding through. There are also concerns that tolls could be imposed on the Strait of Hormuz, given that Iran and Oman are in discussions about how to manage the waterway going forward. This would add to shipping costs for the longer term and add to pressures for importers.

From any new Chancellor, financial markets would initially be looking for stability and signs of action aimed at stimulating sustainable growth, and Streeting is likely to initially try to project reassurance and a business as usual attitude aimed at reassuring investors and keeping a lid on high government borrowing costs.

Streeting is unlikely to have much scope for broad-based tax cuts, particularly if the government remains committed to fiscal discipline, given that there’s so little leeway in public finances. Although he is likely to be seen as a more pragmatic chancellor, there is still concern that he would seek to raise revenue through changes to property or wealth taxation, which could stymie much needed investment.

If Streeting can convince investors that extra public investment is being directed towards projects that genuinely improve productivity and expand the economy's potential, markets may be prepared to give the government greater leeway. He has been a strong advocate for NHS modernisation and digital transformation and is likely to demand that government departments make efficiency drives to trim budgets and overall spending.

Welfare spending is set to come under intense scrutiny under a new Chancellor. He does look more likely to pursue reforms aimed at increasing labour market participation; markets may view this positively, particularly given concerns about economic inactivity and the long-term cost of welfare commitments.

The UK has struggled for years with weak productivity, underinvestment and sluggish economic expansion. Although Burnham's supporters argue that a more interventionist approach, focused on infrastructure, skills and regional development, could help unlock stronger growth across the country and Streeting would find it hard not to toe the PM's line. However, there will be concern that this will be prioritised; the dial won't move enough on tax relief to incentivise investment.”

With 75% of DB schemes in surplus on a low-dependence basis, these positions may come under pressure if mortality improves faster than expected, particularly given preventable mortality may not yet be fully reflected in long-term assumptions. Obesity is one of the UK’s leading risk factors for premature mortality, driving deaths through related long-term conditions.

While recent modelling studies suggesting GLP-1 treatments could under different scenarios, lead to reductions in mortality of around 1.8% to 5.1% over the longer term, outcomes vary widely and depend on uptake, access and long-term effectiveness.

In addition, Standard Life research shows that 69% of DB trustees have not yet had the opportunity to consider the impact of these weight-loss drugs on life expectancy and benefit payment.

Improved health outcomes could extend how long pensions are paid, creating new considerations for schemes approaching buy-in or buyout. Longer lifespans may also influence pricing, investment horizons and the long-term affordability of benefits, making it essential for trustees to understand the impact on future cashflows.

Longevity hedging tools, such as longevity swaps, remain an important tool for schemes that are not yet ready for buy-in, with many trustees now exploring the novation of existing swaps into future buy-ins to maintain flexibility and protection against future mortality shifts.

Claire Altman, Managing Director – Pensions Risk Transfer & Individual Retirement at Standard Life, said: “For many years, life expectancy assumptions were built around a relatively steady pattern of improvement, but that narrative has been challenged in recent years by the pandemic. While headline mortality rates are beginning to normalise, there is now greater uncertainty around future improvements, with healthy life expectancy at its lowest level since records began in 2011, at around 60 years old for men and women.5

“While health innovations could still support longevity gains, the outcomes are far less predictable than historic models suggest. Uncertainty itself is becoming a key risk factor, as trustees navigate a more complex and less predictable environment, particularly when thinking about long-term liabilities.

"While strong funding positions offer schemes some breathing room, they can change quickly if members live longer than expected. These dynamics can affect benefit duration, liability assumptions and the timing of derisking decisions, while increasing the complexity of modelling future outcomes, particularly for schemes with geographically diverse memberships. For schemes that are transaction ready, buy-in will remain the most effective way to secure long-term certainty for members, trustees and sponsors.”

Inflation and geopolitics

Since the start of the Iran conflict, the spot rate on one-year inflation swaps has increased by around 1.5% pa, together with upward pressure on longer-term inflation expectations. While the ultimate impact remains uncertain and depends on how the conflict develops, insurers are once again having to consider the risk of inflation re-accelerating.

For now, there is limited evidence of significant inflation emerging within claims experience. Current inflation appears primarily energy-driven, feeding through gradually into other areas. This differs materially from the inflation spike in 2022, where disruption to parts availability and global supply chains increased costs and extended repair times.

Supply chains now appear more resilient. Although shipping routes remain under pressure, supply chains have generally adapted by rerouting around disrupted areas, including via the Cape of Good Hope. The current risk is therefore more linked to sustained cost pressure than supply chain disruption.

For motor insurers, bodily injury inflation remains more nuanced, with wage inflation typically a more significant driver than headline CPI. Wage growth has been cooling into 2026 and, although the conflict may place some upward pressure on earnings, a repeat of the post-pandemic inflation spike in general wages appears less likely given weaker labour market conditions.

For home insurers, inflationary pressures remain closely linked to contractor availability, labour rates and material costs, with sustained energy price increases still likely to place upward pressure on rebuild costs.

Overall, while the current environment does not yet resemble the disruption seen in 2022, it does represent a meaningful increase in inflation uncertainty. For insurers, this may place renewed pressure on pricing adequacy and could shorten the duration of the recent softening cycle.

Although both motor and home premiums are materially higher than in early 2019, the increases have been lower than broader inflation over the same period. Average premiums for both product lines are currently around 20% above 2019 levels, compared with a 32% increase in CPI.

The route to this position has differed between the two markets. Motor insurance saw much larger premium reductions during 2020 and 2021 as insurers reacted to exceptional reductions in claims frequency during COVID-19 lockdowns. It then saw a sharper repricing phase during 2022 and 2023 in response to severe claims inflation. Home insurance experienced a more moderate cycle overall, with less pronounced movements in either direction.

More recently, the market has remained highly competitive, as insurers compete for growth and retention following easing inflationary expectations. There are, however, signs that the motor market may be beginning to turn. ABI data for 2026 Q1 showed average motor premiums increasing by 0.2% following a 1.5% increase in 2025 Q4. While modest in isolation, seasonality matters: Q4 typically sees a premium uplift, whereas Q1 usually experiences a decrease. Against that backdrop, the small increase in Q1 indicates that the softening cycle may have bottomed out.

There is less evidence of a turning point in home insurance pricing. ABI data for 2026 Q1 shows a 1.1% decrease in average buildings and contents premiums.

Historically, motor pricing has reacted more quickly to changing claims conditions and inflationary pressures, reflecting faster claims emergence, shorter pricing feedback loops and the highly price-sensitive nature of the market. Home insurance pricing cycles have generally been more gradual, with insurers typically slower to respond to changing cost trends in either direction.

For motor, the story is one of relatively contained frequency, with no clear sign of returning to higher claims numbers. Even after a degree of post-pandemic normalisation in driving patterns, the market is not facing a wholesale return to pre-2020 claims frequency. This reflects a combination of factors, including persistent changes in travel behaviour due to hybrid working, ongoing improvements in vehicle and road safety, and lower claims propensity as higher excesses and premium sensitivity discourage claims for smaller losses.

For home, frequency in recent years has been shaped by weather volatility. Subsidence was the standout story of 2025, following the UK’s warmest and sunniest year on record. While wetter conditions in late 2025 and early 2026 may have offered some short-term relief, they do not remove the underlying risk. Subsidence surges no longer appear isolated: 2018, 2022 and 2025 all saw elevated activity. For insurers, subsidence is no longer a one-off aftershock from an exceptionally hot year but, increasingly, a recurring underwriting and pricing issue.

Taken together, the picture is not one of a simple return to the conditions of 2022, nor one of a stable market. Inflation uncertainty has risen again, motor pricing may be approaching a turning point, and weather-driven volatility continues to make frequency unpredictable. For personal lines insurers, the challenge is not just to respond to higher costs, but to recognise how quickly the balance of risks can change.

To drive greater consistency, the FCA is proposing clear standards of due diligence. This is intended to secure better outcomes for consumers by improving consistency and adequacy of due diligence across all SIPP operators.

The FCA is also proposing stronger requirements for the handling of pension scheme money and assets. The targeted and proportionate proposals reduce the risk of consumer harm when firms fail or wind down.

The proposals will bring greater certainty to the industry, improve confidence in the SIPP market and help ensure consumers can invest through SIPPs with greater confidence. They complement the Consumer Duty by making clear what good practice looks like.

Charlotte Clark, director of cross-cutting policy and strategy at the FCA, said: 'SIPPs provide consumers with flexibility and choice. Many firms are doing the right thing, but we want to help consumers invest with greater confidence by ensuring standards are consistent.'

The pound has dipped to levels not seen for almost three months, trading below $1.32, while government borrowing costs remain elevated. Although 10-year gilt yields have slipped below the hot levels seen during the most intense phase of the Iran conflict, they are still hovering around 4.84%, sharply higher than international peers. Investing in UK assets continues to carry a risk premium given the bouts of political instability seen since Brexit, and there is little sign of that easing.

There's a distinct lack of direction for the FTSE 100 at the start of the week, and it hasn't been helped by conflicting signals about a peace deal between the US and Iran. Brent crude had pushed higher as concerns resurfaced about the conflict flaring up again, given the ongoing tensions between Hezbollah and Israel. However, there does appear to be further progress being made during talks in Switzerland towards a lasting settlement, and oil prices have dipped again. A statement from Qatar and Pakistan, which are leading negotiations in Switzerland, has indicated that the US and Iran have agreed to follow a roadmap towards peace. However, it is clear there is still a long way to go, and more obstacles may emerge before a long-term deal is signed, sealed and delivered.

For now, though, Brent crude has fallen back below $80 a barrel. Tankers are moving through the bottleneck of the Strait of Hormuz and, with key oil-producing nations across the Gulf going all out to boost output, the supply crunch is easing quickly, helping to calm inflationary worries.

Shares in easyJet have surged higher as the US private equity firm eyeing the airline has doubled down on efforts to take over the company. It has taken its offer public after the board rejected its third takeover approach. Its latest proposal came at a 59% premium to the closing share price before investors became aware of its interest. Castlelake is attempting to appeal directly to shareholders through this approach, given that management clearly opposes the bid.

The airline has been battling headwinds from escalating tensions in the Middle East, which have rattled consumer confidence, driven up fuel costs and cast a shadow over the outlook for European travel demand. As a result, its valuation had fallen to a level not seen for more than three years, leaving the company looking vulnerable despite its strong liquidity position.

Castlelake clearly believes the market may be underestimating easyJet’s longer-term earnings potential and the resilience of its network. The firm is well known for investing in aircraft leasing and aviation finance and already owns a small stake in easyJet. The airline also fits neatly within its broader portfolio. However, it remains unclear how easyJet would operate in its current form under private equity ownership.

This is fresh evidence that British markets are increasingly becoming a hunting ground for sophisticated institutional investors, particularly as sterling has weakened and UK-listed stocks continue to trade at lower valuations than many international peers.”

The launch builds on changes to the UK's bond market transparency rules that came into force in December 2025. Those changes have already made a real difference. The share of corporate bond trades reported in real time rose from under 5% to over 75%, and for government bonds from around 30% to approximately 80%. In some smaller parts of the market, real-time reporting increased more than 50-fold. The consolidated tape is the final step, giving users a single, comprehensive view of all that data.

The UK is the first country outside North America to launch a consolidated tape for bonds.

Simon Walls, executive director of markets at the FCA, said: "Good markets run on good information. Today's launch of a consolidated tape gives investors a clear, reliable and comprehensive view of UK bond trading for the first time. The UK is a global leader in fixed income issuance and trading, and this is another important delivery in enhancing the competitiveness of the UK as a leading centre of finance."

The service launches with 98% market coverage of in-scope bond trading. The FCA will supervise ETS Connect UK throughout its five-year contract to ensure data quality and reliability.

“The UK faces a challenging set of public finance constraints, with limited room for additional spending and persistent questions about how future commitments will be funded. Fears remain that spending cuts, tax rises, or a bitter cocktail of both could be required to pay for any flagship policies. At this stage, however, there is still so much we do not know.

“For markets, the identity of the next prime minister may matter less than the credibility of the policies they pursue. Investors, businesses and households will be looking for signs of how the government intends to balance growth ambitions with the realities of the public finances. The key questions are likely to centre on taxation, pensions, ISAs, public spending, inflation and the future path of interest rates.

“Until there is clarity from a new prime minister and chancellor, households, businesses and investors are left guessing about the direction of travel. The longer the wait for firm policy signals, the longer uncertainty is likely to hang over financial prospects.

“While our personal finances cannot be disentangled from what happens in Westminster, knee-jerk reactions based on speculation are likely to do more harm than good. History suggests that political drama often moves faster than economic reality. Policies can take months to emerge and years to have a meaningful effect on household finances, which is why reacting to every twist and turn in Westminster rarely proves a successful financial strategy.

“Whatever the direction of travel from the new administration, it remains good practice to make full use of tax-efficient wrappers such as ISAs and pensions, maintain a diversified investment strategy, and focus on the fundamentals that remain within our control. Governments come and go, but the principles of good financial planning remain remarkably constant.”

“We have come across highly paid professionals who are considering relocating to more tax-efficient jurisdictions, or are actively reviewing their options. For some, the introduction of a wealth tax could prove to be the tipping point.”

"While a Burnham-led government would likely shift policy leftwards, there are clear constraints. The UK’s fiscal position remains tight, and recent experience has reinforced just how quickly bond markets can respond to perceived policy missteps. In that context, investors appear reassured by signs that Burnham is mindful of those constraints. Gilt yields and sterling have moved largely in line with global trends rather than reacting sharply to domestic politics, underlining the extent to which international factors continue to dominate market direction.

“For now, the bigger story is one of uncertainty rather than disruption. Until there is greater clarity on policy direction—particularly around taxation and spending—markets are likely to remain in a holding pattern.

“Amid the renewed bout of volatility in British politics, investors should resist the temptation to act on speculation. We’ve seen before that pre-emptive decisions based on political noise can be costly, and maintaining a long-term investment approach remains the most sensible course.”

Only one in five (19%) of those surveyed by The Exeter reported feeling ‘very confident’ in their family’s financial resilience, a drop from 22% in 2025. In fact, 15% believe day-to-day living costs would be the hardest thing for their family to manage if the worst happened.

Over half (53%) of this age group were worried that, in the event of their death, their loved ones would find it difficult to manage day-to-day bills, financial affairs, mortgage payments or funeral costs.

Jack Southcott, Head of Protection Proposition at The Exeter, comments: “It’s not uncommon for many people to overestimate how secure their family finances would be in the event of an unexpected event or income shock, but today’s data shows that financial resilience is weakening across the UK. Nearly a third of adults are now concerned about unexpected shocks and for many it would only take a single illness, injury or period out of work to turn that worry into reality.

“While the industry has made strong progress in improving customer outcomes under Consumer Duty, there remains a significant gap between those who would benefit from financial advice or protection and those who actually seek it. Closing that gap will be critical to improving financial resilience across the UK.”

Evan Greenberg, CEO of Chubb, said: “As a global leader, Chubb is actively working to provide coverage and organize needed capacity as vessels begin moving through the Strait of Hormuz. We are proud to lead this consortium, which provides our brokers and clients with a simple, efficient solution to their insurance needs while highlighting the importance our industry plays in supporting global commerce.”

Patrick Tiernan, Chief Executive of Lloyd’s, said: “We welcome the launch of this new marine war risk consortium, which will increase the depth and breadth of solutions available to brokers and clients as they respond to a complex and evolving situation in the Middle East.

“Lloyd’s will work closely with Chubb and participating syndicates to help mobilise additional specialist capacity swiftly and responsibly in support of ships, crews and cargo moving through the Strait of Hormuz.

“This is a clear example of the Lloyd’s market’s role in bringing together specialist underwriting expertise, claims capability and global market capacity to support the resilience of marine supply chains.”

For insurers, this translates into a simple truth: being smart isn’t enough — you need scalable operations to turn insight into impact. It’s also the line that separates the Leaders from the Learners — and ultimately, the frontier insurers from the rest of the market.

Market agility is no longer optional. Pricing teams face mounting pressure to manage frequent adjustments, complex models, and vast data sources — all while responding to inflation spikes, regulatory shifts, and competitor moves in near real-time. Success now means rolling out new rates in hours, not months, and handling peak quote volumes without performance hiccups. Those bottlenecked by unscalable operations risk missed opportunities and shrinking market share.

Industry leaders advocate breaking down silos and centralizing technical functions.

Technology enablers powering scalable pricing: Cloud, Automation, and AI

Fortunately, technology is rising to meet the scalability challenge. Three critical enablers stand out:

The FTSE 100 is flat in early trade, while sterling has edged down against major currencies and gilt yields have ticked higher. The muted moves suggest investors are still weighing up what the result means for the future direction of economic policy. For now, that may be because Andy Burnham has promised to be more cautious about spending by largely sticking to fiscal rules. He also appears willing to tackle the large benefits bill, arguing that welfare reform should focus on helping more people into work. His pledge to bring down huge welfare costs, partly to fund higher defence spending, is a signal that he is positioning himself closer to the political centre, which may be providing some reassurance.

The latest government borrowing snapshot highlights the tricky fiscal tightrope he’ll have to walk if he does get the keys to Number 10. UK borrowing increased in May by almost a third compared to the same month last year, reaching £23.3 billion. Interest payable on government debt shot up to £11.7 billion – the highest ever recorded for the month. It highlights the need to keep bond markets on side and demonstrate that his policies will be aimed at bringing down long-term borrowing, with credible plans for reviving growth.

For now, investors are balancing the political uncertainty which is swirling against signs of a bit more resilience in the UK economy. Retail sales came in stronger than expected in May, offering fresh evidence that consumers are spending a little more than expected despite higher borrowing costs and ongoing pressure on household finances. The figures provide some encouragement that consumer demand is holding up better than anticipated. Nevertheless, confidence remains fragile. Although the latest GfK survey showed consumer sentiment holding steady rather than deteriorating further, households continue to face a challenging backdrop of elevated living costs and sluggish economic growth.

The modest rise in gilt yields may also indicate that investors are reassessing the outlook for interest rates following the stronger retail sales data. While the Bank of England left rates unchanged, evidence of resilience in consumer spending may reinforce expectations that policymakers will remain cautious about higher prices being given freer rein to filter through.

Attention also remains focused on the agreement between the United States and Iran. Although the deal appears to be a step towards greater stability in the Middle East and a potential boost to global energy supplies, there is still a risk it hands Tehran significant economic benefits without securing stronger concessions. Brent crude has recovered to just under $80 a barrel, suggesting traders remain wary about the balance between increased supply and the risk of tense geopolitics flaring up again.

Wall Street ended the trading week on another surge of AI enthusiasm. Markets are closed today to mark Juneteenth National Independence Day, and investors were in a holiday mood, snapping up technology companies. The Nasdaq surged 1.9%, while the S&P 500 climbed 1.1%, as investors piled back into stocks focused on artificial intelligence developments despite concerns that valuations are becoming increasingly stretched. With hopes that the Iran conflict is in the rear-view mirror and inflationary pressure will start to calm, there are also hopes that borrowing costs won’t be pushed higher despite signs of dissent around the Fed table.”

Stable inflation numbers have seen the rumour mill grind to a halt, with a pause looking like it's in the bag. For now, there appear to be enough deflationary forces pulsing through the economy to stop higher prices, caused by the energy shock, from bedding in more widely. The weakening labour market and sluggish economy are keeping a lid on investment and making consumers more cautious. Nevertheless, markets are still pricing in another rate hike this year, but forecasts could be revised depending on the tone of the Bank's statement.

Progress towards a peace deal in the Middle East isn't helping inject much more optimism into trading. Oil prices have eased further, with Brent crude dropping to trade around $77 a barrel. The digital signing of the interim agreement between the US and Iran, ahead of an official ceremony on Friday, is exerting a fresh downward force on prices, as new supplies are expected to hit the market just as demand has been weakened by rationing and energy-efficiency measures.

A British glass-half-empty attitude - expecting the worst but hoping for the best - appears to be influencing sentiment. But it's also mainly to do with the make-up of the FTSE 100. A fall in oil prices impacts big energy companies, which constitute around 10% of the index. The FTSE 100 is light on tech and misses out on much of the enthusiasm surrounding AI advancements.

In the United States, it's a different story, with big tech names dominating indices and optimism riding high. It's why a perceived change in the monetary policy stance can cause more volatility. Even though the Fed, as expected, voted to keep rates on hold, half the policymakers around the table signalled that they expect an interest rate hike this year. Kevin Warsh, the new governor, abstained from putting his forecast on the dot plot, but with others leaning towards a rate hike, it has unnerved investors.

SpaceX stumbled for the first time since its stellar IPO performance amid a rush of profit-taking. It's not surprising, given how high prices have climbed, that volatility is proving so prevalent.

However, US stocks are set for a rebound amid this somewhat erratic sentiment. Wall Street is expected to take cues from Asia, where indices stepped higher amid ongoing enthusiasm for semiconductor names. The unveiling of a new product from chip manufacturer SK Hynix has lifted sentiment, especially with demand for memory chips so strong that prices are soaring. Samsung Electronics also rose sharply, helping propel the Kospi higher.

A push-pull in attitudes is bedding in, with investors hoping, on one hand, for big future returns and, on the other, becoming nervous about whether valuations can be justified, especially in a higher-interest-rate environment.”

George Brown, Senior Economst at Schroders said: "For now, the Bank is playing for time rather than going on the attack. Rising inflation expectations have earned a yellow card from a couple of hawkish dissenters, but the majority are content to wait. We think the bar for hikes remains high. A softer labour market and weak growth should help limit second-round effects, and progress on reopening the Strait of Hormuz should also reduce some of the more extreme upside risks to energy prices. But the Bank cannot afford to be complacent. If inflation expectations continue to drift higher, it may yet be forced to step in."

Lindsay James, investment strategist at Quilter: “As was well telegraphed, the Bank of England has kept interest rates at 3.75%, with markets more concerned about whether hikes are still likely this year or if the narrative can shift back to cuts. Clearly the memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran has changed the landscape somewhat, but the benefits of this and a return to normality still seem a long way off. Whilst inflation was below expectations in May and currently under 3%, it is still likely to jump closer to 4% later in the year due to the coming impact a higher energy price cap. Furthermore, despite recent falls in the oil price, it remains higher than it was last year and the Bank of England will feel nervous about cutting rates in that scenario even with a stuttering labour market and uninspired growth. Furthermore, members acknowledged that a weaker labour market reduced the chances of the recent bout of inflation leading to higher wage demands, some felt that households are more aware than ever of how one has led to the other in recent years - a case of once burnt, twice shy. Like the Federal Reserve, therefore, they will probably be inclined to sit on the fence for a while yet and wait for further data as to how the Middle East situation resolves itself. You also have the added complication of political instability hitting the UK at the same time, with Andy Burnham expected to win the Makerfield byelection. Should we see Burnham win and a leadership contest that results in a lurch to the left, the growth hurdles facing the UK may become increasingly harder to clear and thus make the BoE’s job even more difficult than it already is today.”

The pressure cooker of prices is off the boil with inflation staying stable and oil prices retreating further. May’s surprise inflation reading for the UK will add to hopes that the cost-of-living scare induced by the Middle East crisis will be shorter-lived. It shows that despite higher energy costs infiltrating fuel prices and air fares, underlying price pressures are easing across the economy.

While inflation remains above the Bank's 2% target, disinflationary forces are creeping in. Housing and household services inflation eased to 2.7% from 3%, while food and non-alcoholic beverage inflation slowed further to 2.2% from 3%.

This reinforces expectations that the Bank of England will press pause tomorrow and keep interest rates at 3.75%. It’s likely to mean policymakers will hold off on increasing rates until later in the year. It would give more time to assess if higher energy costs are being passed on, or if this is a temporary external force that will ease off more quickly. There’s even a small but growing chance that interest rate hikes could be taken off the table.

With the economy struggling, the labour market looking weaker, and consumers staying wary, conditions are likely to continue to exert downward pressure on inflation, without tinkering with monetary policy.

The latest drop in oil prices, which have fallen for the fifth session in a row, will also reassure policymakers that acute price pressures are easing. With the signing of the Iran deal set for Friday and more details coming through, Brent crude, the benchmark, has edged down to $78 a barrel, the lowest level since early March. Traders are increasingly pricing in the prospect of a significant boost to global supplies.

The deal is set to include broad economic incentives for Tehran, including the immediate resumption of oil exports. At the same time, tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is expected to start to normalise, although shipping companies remain wary about whether the agreement will hold and whether disruption could be sparked again. With repairs still ongoing to facilities across the Gulf region, this may also limit flows. This is why crude is still trading around 30% higher compared with January levels, before tensions in the Middle East began to ratchet up.”

Commenting on insurer innovation in the bulk annuity risk transfer market, Joanne Gyte, Partner, Hymans Robertson, said: “Over the two years, we’ve seen post-transaction delays become one of the most significant challenges for schemes targeting buy-out. While securing a transaction remains a key milestone, the real test increasingly lies in getting schemes through the final stages efficiently and with confidence. Despite recently seeing the most buy-outs ever completed, many schemes are still in the post-transaction phase. Around three in four of these projects have delays.

“Trustees and sponsors are beginning to recognise that a good transaction is no longer just about securing a deal at the right price, but also getting through the subsequent phases quickly, predictably and without costly delays. Without a clear and aligned approach to delivery, DB schemes risk delays that can increase costs, create uncertainty and impact member experience. It’s encouraging to see the market responding to this.

“Insurers are starting to take a more active role in addressing the practical challenges that have historically slowed progress. This includes piloting insurer-led approaches to GMP equalisation, introducing ‘fast-track’ journeys from buy-in to buy-out, and investing in digital capabilities such as data interrogation tools and member-facing platforms. While it’s still early days for some of these innovations, they have the potential to make a meaningful difference. If the market can continue to evolve in this way, we’re optimistic that DB schemes will be able to reach buy-out faster, with greater certainty on costs and outcomes.

“For trustees and sponsors, this highlights the importance of thinking beyond the transaction itself. Having a clear plan in place, with aligned objectives and a well-defined approach to handling key risks and operational challenges, will allow a scheme to take full advantage of the emerging innovations and be critical to avoiding delays and ensuring a smoother path to buy-out.

“While improving speed is important, it should be balanced with maintaining robust processes and strong governance throughout the post-transaction phase. A well-managed journey is one that works towards what we call FAST: frictionless, aligned, streamlined and timely. This will ultimately deliver better outcomes for trustees, sponsors and members alike, particularly where clear timelines and expectations can be maintained.”

Hymans Robertson - The future of post-transaction journeys

When the campaign launched, PensionBee's research found that 74% of self-employed people without a pension were unaware their contributions attract tax relief, that 61% expressed willingness to save if they had the right support, and that someone earning £25,000 who spends thirty years outside Auto-Enrolment could could potentially miss out on around £70,000 due to an absence of employer contributions benefiting from investment growth alongside personal contributions. These numbers are indicative of the depth of the savings gap and the lack of support.

The Commission's interim findings have validated the central argument of the Invisible Workers campaign: that the self-employed pension participation gap is not a behavioural problem but a structural one - one that requires structural solutions. PensionBee has consistently called for three of them:

The Commission is expected to publish its final recommendations later this year. PensionBee is calling on it to translate its interim diagnosis into concrete, enforceable reform, and to treat the invisible workforce not as a footnote to the main employed workforce discussion, but as a central challenge that the next generation of pension policy must answer.

Lisa Picardo, Chief Business Officer UK at PensionBee, said: “What has changed in the past year is that this is no longer a fringe argument. The Commission has put the self-employed at the centre of its work, and the political conversation has shifted accordingly. What has not changed is the reality facing the millions of people this campaign is about: the freelancers, the carers, the gig workers who are still navigating retirement saving entirely alone, without the safety blanket of default saving mechanisms of a workplace scheme, the impact of employer contributions, or the structural prompts that employees take for granted.

"The Commission's final report is an opportunity to close that gap. We will be watching closely to see whether it produces the concrete, actionable recommendations the evidence demands. Despite the need to boost saving among those outside the net of Auto-Enrolment, the solution has always remained the same; the self-employed, carers, freelancers and gig workers should be saving into a personal pension as often as they can afford to. Starting immediately, and putting aside small amounts when possible, enables those deposits to benefit from tax relief and compound interest.”

Attention is being trained on the G7 summit in Evian-les-Bains, where the intricacies of the agreement are expected to be explored amid concerns that, if it’s too limited in nature, tensions could flare up again. The agreement establishes a 60-day framework for broader negotiations over Iran's nuclear programme. But the location of Iran's highly enriched uranium stockpile remains unclear, and the limited ability of inspectors to monitor future activities is prompting worries that a hastily negotiated deal could leave Tehran with a pathway to rebuild its nuclear capabilities.

The operational realities of policing the deal are also in focus. The UK and France have already been pushing the need for a multinational naval mission to keep the Strait of Hormuz safe for shipping, although right now it looks unlikely that such a plan would get Tehran’s support. With mines still littering the Strait, and very precise routes needing to be followed to avoid them, flows of crude are still likely to be reduced in capacity while insurance costs are set to remain high. There also remain concerns that tolls could be imposed on the Strait by Iranian authorities, which would keep shipping costs elevated.

Oil prices, for now, are hovering at the lowest level in two months, with Brent crude around $82 a barrel, but it’s still trading at a premium compared to pre-conflict levels, demonstrating the ongoing uncertainties about supplies. The Bank of Japan has raised its key interest rate to a 31-year high as a precaution, to try and stop energy costs being embedded more deeply across the economy. The move – increasing the short-term policy rate to 1% from 0.75% – was widely expected, but it’s a step-change in monetary policy for Japan, given it pushes borrowing costs to levels not seen since 1995. There was some relief that the move wasn’t more hawkish, with even a 50-basis-point hike having been mooted. That’s why investors responded with relief and stocks rallied even higher. There are expectations that the Fed and the Bank of England will hold off from rate hikes this week and adopt a wait-and-see stance instead, which may help keep the general market mood buoyant.

Defence stocks are likely to be in focus this week amid all the talk among G7 leaders about geopolitical tensions and efforts to end conflict. Ukraine is expected to be one of the central topics at the summit, and while a breakthrough is not expected, European leaders will be trying to secure continued US engagement and demonstrate ongoing Western unity in support of Kyiv. The discussions come at a time when attacks have been intensifying, but diplomatic efforts have failed to build a path towards a ceasefire.

European leaders are likely to press President Trump to maintain military and financial backing for Ukraine while preserving pressure on Russia through sanctions. For Europe, the conflict remains a critical security issue that has implications for defence spending, fiscal policy, energy security and long-term economic resilience. The row over the military budget in the UK will be an embarrassing issue for Keir Starmer’s government, and may justify the Trump administration’s jibe that Europe needs to spend a lot more on its own defence rather than going cap in hand to the US.”

Small changes in assumed life expectancy can translate into meaningful changes in liabilities over time. As part of the 2025 actuarial valuation, the BW specialist longevity team carried out in-depth mortality and longevity analysis for our LGPS clients. This bespoke analysis allows actuaries to take each Fund’s unique membership profile into account when setting assumptions, rather than relying on generic “one-size-fits-all” approaches.

This article initially looks back at the mortality experience observed at the 2025 actuarial valuation and summarises the resulting outcomes for mortality assumptions. We then outline what Funds and employers can expect for the March 2026 accounting exercise, where these assumptions will be updated.

Taken together, this indicates that the mortality assumptions set at the previous valuation in 2022 remained broadly reasonable. The limited scale of experience gains and losses also reinforces the importance of analysing experience over a sufficiently long period and avoiding over-reacting to short-term fluctuations.

Ultimately, changes in future assumptions come down to each Fund’s unique membership profile and past mortality experience. This underlines the importance of bespoke longevity analysis. Tailoring assumptions to individual Fund experience helps ensure that liabilities are neither understated nor overly prudent, supporting sound funding decisions for both Funds and employers.

The model is updated annually, with the move from CMI_2023 to CMI_2024 being particularly important. This update included a significant overhaul of the model to better reflect the unusually high excess mortality observed during the COVID-19 pandemic. No significant changes were required to the structure of the model for the latest version, CMI_2025, which compared to CMI_2024 shows a small increase in life expectancies on average.

At the 2025 valuation, projected life expectancies are the highest seen since the pandemic, reflecting a degree of normalisation following the severe disruption of 2020–2022. That said, life expectancy projections remain lower than pre-pandemic expectations. The long-term effects of COVID-19, coupled with broader health and societal trends, continue to influence mortality assumptions.

Implications for employer accounting

Mortality changes will be reflected in employer accounting disclosures in two key ways:

Mortality experience will differ between employers as it is dependent on each employer’s unique membership experience observed over the intervaluation period.

Mortality experience is only one part of the experience item shown in the accounting report. The item also represents factors such as differences in expected and actual retirement ages, withdrawal rates, and commutation behaviour, among others.

At this year’s March 2026 accounting exercise, employer mortality assumptions will be updated to align with the now-complete 2025 actuarial valuation. In addition, most employers are expected to update the mortality projection basis further, moving to the recently released CMI_2025 model.

As a general rule of thumb, higher life expectancy increases liabilities, while lower life expectancy reduces them, as benefits are expected to be paid over a longer or shorter period. However, the magnitude of the accounting impact will vary between employers and depends on several factors:

The impact on liabilities of these changing life expectancies linked to updating the mortality assumptions for the 2025 valuation depends on each Fund’s membership profile. However, overall, the changes illustrated above will lead to a change in liabilities within the range of -2.5% to +2.5%.

In addition to this, updating the CMI model from CMI_2024 (used at the 2025 valuation) to CMI_2025 will on average increase liabilities by 0.5%.

To support employers and auditors, we have prepared additional information within our March briefing note and accounting FAQs.

“The pound also started to drop ahead of the vote itself, as traders anticipated the impact. Back in November 2015 a pound was worth 1.42 euros, and by August 2019 it fell as low as 1.09. It has remained volatile since and on 11 June 2026 was trading at 1.16 euros.

“This has been making holidays more expensive in some popular destinations ever since, because not only does your holiday money not go as far, but the exchange rate also makes anything priced in euros or dollars more expensive, which can include everything from the hotel to the flights or dinners out.”

“As a result, inflation rose in the aftermath of the Brexit vote. In June 2016 it was at just 0.5%, hitting 1.6% by December the same year and then 2.6% in the following June. By December 2017 it had hit 3%, before gradually decreasing again. Of course, in the years following the pandemic, the financial support pumped into the economy combined with the impact of the war in Ukraine meant inflation of a completely different order.”

“For anyone relying on savings to produce an income, there was more than a decade of misery between 2008 and 2022, when rock bottom savings rates produced derisory sums. Things have picked up significantly over the past four years, when savings have been more rewarding. However, it was a salient demonstration for anyone using assets to produce an income how much more rewarding investing can be over the long term, and how key it is to consider investments as part of a portfolio.”

They join the Board at a pivotal time with the Pension Schemes Act 2026 set to significantly reshape the market with a focus on scale, value and good outcomes for members, while the Pensions Commission has recently published its interim report setting out the key challenges facing the system, ahead of its final recommendations in 2027. Following, consultation, TPR plans to publish a refreshed five-year strategy next month setting out the principles and outcomes that will drive its work in this rapidly evolving landscape.

TPR’s interim Chair Kirstin Baker said: “I am delighted to welcome Ben, Chris and Tracey to the TPR Board. They bring strong leadership experience and deep pensions, regulatory and financial services expertise that will complement existing Board skills and support our new Chair Emma Douglas when she joins next month.”

Ben Gunnee, Executive Director, Market Oversight, said: “People expect a secure, sustainable income in retirement. At this vital moment for pensions, I welcome the opportunity to help deliver essential reforms and shape a system that drives strong outcomes for members.

“My focus will be on ensuring market participants have the highest standards of governance, employing a forward-looking and proactive supervisory model to stop harms before they arise.”

Tracey McDermott, Non-Executive Director, said: “I look forward to joining TPR at this important time in pensions, and to using my financial services and regulatory experience to help TPR deliver on its core mission and priorities.”

Chris Hitchen, Non-Executive Director, said: “My longstanding experience representing the pensions industry and working across large, complex schemes, has forged my commitment to better long-term outcomes for pension scheme members, their employers and for the UK as a whole. I look forward to working with the Board and industry colleagues to deliver strong, flexible governance and high standards across the sector.”

Oil prices have taken another leg lower, but this hasn’t come completely out of the blue. Oil has been sliding for much of the past month, a sign that markets had already started to price in a decent chance of a breakthrough between the US and Iran before President Trump’s latest announcement. The confirmation of a deal has still added fresh downward pressure, with traders now looking for evidence that the Strait of Hormuz reopens smoothly and energy flows return to something closer to normal.

Interest rates are now back in focus as lower oil prices give central banks a little more breathing room, but not enough to change the picture overnight. Markets are currently pricing in something close to a coin toss on a US rate hike by year-end, while the UK looks more firmly tilted toward a move higher, likely toward the back end of the year if the markets are to be believed. That reflects the balancing act on both sides of the Atlantic: weaker energy prices help the inflation story, but policymakers will still want evidence that the shock has not worked its way into wages, prices and broader inflation.

This week is a big one for macro watchers, with new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s first meeting on Wednesday and the Bank of England expected to hold rates steady on Thursday. We already know that Warsh wants to rethink how the Fed communicates, with the future of dot plots and heavy forward guidance likely to come under scrutiny, but markets will be more focused on his read of inflation and jobs. Any suggestion that war-driven inflation is transitory could help calm rate expectations, though investors will naturally remain cautious about any transitory comments given how wrong that narrative turned out to be during the Covid saga.

Earnings are relatively light this week, but Thursday brings two UK consumer bellwethers worth watching. Whitbread’s update will test whether Premier Inn can keep pushing forward despite UK cost inflation and a potential wobble in international travel demand, while Germany’s improving momentum still needs to translate into more meaningful profit contribution. Tesco should offer a cleaner read on the UK consumer, with sales likely to remain in growth mode, but the focus will be on whether oil-led pressure on household budgets is accelerating downtrading and whether its scale can keep margins and full-year profit guidance on track.”

The Fraud Strategy for 2026-2029 sends a clear message: every business has a role to play in tackling fraud in all its forms and for insurance providers, fraud takes many forms – from ghost broking and staged claims to identity manipulation and policy misrepresentation. It starts with knowing who they are dealing with at every point in the customer journey, from application through to claim.

No single organisation has the full picture, which is why data sharing, advanced analytics and email address intelligence have vital roles to play. However, one of the most powerful tools insurers already possess is their own customer data.

Best practice risk assessment relies on clean, accurate and connected customer data. Yet many insurance providers still struggle to maintain up-to-date and complete customer records. When data sits in silos across underwriting, pricing and claims systems, detecting patterns that may indicate fraudulent activity becomes significantly harder.

Data fragmentation can arise from mergers and acquisitions that introduce new customer datasets, legacy systems across product lines and inconsistent, outdated or incomplete customer records across policies and claims.

Beyond fraud prevention, linking customer data also delivers broader operational benefits. When insurance providers can resolve multiple records to a single identity, they gain a clearer view of their relationship with each customer, supporting more informed decisions across pricing, underwriting and claims.

This “single customer view” can improve customer outcomes and help insurance providers better understand customer needs across products and services while enabling them to identify additional product opportunities.

Solutions such as LexID® for Insurance can help insurance providers connect fragmented records to a unique identity, creating a more consistent, real-time view of each customer across the insurance lifecycle without the burden of maintaining complex internal data matching systems.

For example, linking datasets across business lines may uncover duplicate policies associated with the same individual, repeated claims involving connected parties, inconsistent customer details across products, or suspicious patterns emerging across multiple policies.

These insights can help insurers enhance their fraud detection models while supporting broader industry efforts to disrupt organised fraud networks.

Customer identity resolution is central to this effort. When combined with enriched datasets, particularly those built from industry-wide policy and claims history, it creates a far more complete and reliable view of risk. Layering in advanced analytics and complementary tools such as indicators of quote manipulation and email address intelligence, further strengthens this capability. The result should be more accurate fraud detection, stronger prevention and reduced friction for genuine customers.

For insurance providers, establishing a unified, connected view of the customer is a foundational step in fraud prevention. By breaking down data silos and improving identity resolution, firms can apply enrichment more effectively, sharpen their understanding of risk and deliver better customer outcomes. In doing so, they not only strengthen their own fraud resilience, but also contribute to a safer, more coordinated and more resilient insurance market overall.

Oil prices have eased back into the mid-$80s per barrel, their lowest levels in two months, as hopes of a diplomatic breakthrough take some of the immediate risk premium out of the market. But even if a deal is reached, getting supply back to normal will not be as simple as flicking a switch, with mines in the Strait of Hormuz to clear, idled production fields to restart, and damaged energy infrastructure to repair. That means oil markets may be breathing a little easier, but the path back to smoother flows could take us into the latter part of the year.

SpaceX’s long-awaited IPO is set to be one of the biggest moments for markets today, with reports suggesting the offer is around four times oversubscribed. The real test comes once trading begins, because strong demand for an allocation does not always translate into the same willingness to buy in the open market, and long-term returns will still come down to the familiar mix of business quality, fundamentals and valuation. UK investors should also remember that US IPOs usually go through an opening auction at the start of the session, which can last a few hours, so SpaceX is unlikely to be available to trade straight out of the blocks.

UK GDP data added a softer tone beneath the market rally, with the economy shrinking 0.1% in April and showing the first real signs that the strong start to the year is beginning to crack. Services took most of the strain, with households cutting back on non-energy spending and activity falling across more than half of the major sub-sectors, while the boost from stockpiling in manufacturing looks unlikely to last. The figures leave the economy on course for a much weaker second quarter, and while inflation risks have not disappeared, the loss of momentum makes it easier to argue that the Bank of England will keep rates on hold.”

Reports this week suggested ministers are considering proposals that would allow workers with at least 10 years of National Insurance contributions to exchange one year of State Pension entitlement for a lump sum payment of £12,548.

IG analysed how that lump sum would have performed if invested in major stock market indices over the past 30 and 40 years. The analysis found that a 28-year-old investing £12,548 and leaving it untouched until age 68 could have seen the money grow to £984,179 if invested in the S&P 500. The same investment would have reached £423,463 in the MSCI World Index and £199,829 in the FTSE 100.

Even over a shorter 30-year investment horizon, starting from 1996, a £12,548 investment would have grown to £280,906 in the S&P 500, £174,752 in the MSCI World and £85,485 in the FTSE 100.

It should be noted that these figures are not adjusted for inflation. According to the Bank of England's inflation calculator, £12,548 today would be equivalent to approximately £25,862 in 1996 and £38,484 in 1986. While the stock market returns shown above comfortably outpaced inflation over both periods, the comparison highlights the importance of considering the changing value of money when assessing long-term investment performance.

*Data taken from xxx. Past performance is not an accurate indicator of future results

The findings highlight the long-term power of investing and compounding, particularly for younger savers with decades until retirement. While a guaranteed State Pension income provides certainty in later life, historical market returns suggest that some investors may have been able to generate substantially greater wealth by investing a lump sum over the long term

Aaron Bright, Analyst at IG, said: "The proposals currently being discussed raise an interesting question about how younger workers balance guaranteed retirement income against the opportunity to build wealth through investing.

"For younger people with decades until retirement, time is one of the most valuable assets they have. History shows that investing over long periods has often delivered returns that outpace inflation and cash savings, thanks to the power of compounding. The purpose of this analysis is to illustrate the long-term trade-offs that younger workers may wish to consider if proposals such as these were ever introduced. Any decision would need to weigh the potential for investment growth against the value and certainty of future State Pension income."

US stocks suffered a bruising session yesterday as investors winced at the highest headline CPI inflation numbers in three years, and a throwaway “I love inflation” comment by President Trump. The 4.2% annual increase was driven by a 23.5% rise in energy. Beneath the surface, however, core inflation was more muted at 2.9%. The monthly rise of 0.2% came in a little cooler than forecasts of 0.3%. Taken together with last week’s bumper non-farm payrolls data, there are some signs that the economy can accommodate a higher level of hiring without running red hot. Bond markets took a sanguine view with US 10-year yields broadly flat at 4.5%.

However, futures are still pointing to a quarter point rate hike by the Fed towards the end of year. Tech stocks had the worst of it yesterday with the NASDAQ losing 2% of its value. Some of this has been attributed to a redeployment of capital as investors look to fund their commitments to tomorrow’s Space X IPO, which is targeting a fundraise of $75bn, the biggest primary issuance in history. However the fundamentals suggest there’s plenty of life left in the AI trade yet. US futures are up this morning, with the NASDAQ showing a bigger rise than the broader market.

Later today, there are a couple of data points that could further influence the tug of war between borrowing costs, price rises and interest rates. Continuing jobless claims are expected to remain broadly flat at about 1.78 million, which is relatively low compared to historical norms. Last week’s non-farm payrolls numbers pointed to structural pockets of hiring strength in sectors such as healthcare, and a bump in leisure and hospitality job creation ahead of the FIFA World Cup, which kicks off today. However, this is being offset by hiring freezes and limited job cuts in other sectors.

The bigger mover of today’s market could be the US Producer Prices Index, which can be loosely seen as a forward indicator of the direction of consumer prices. The year-on-year print is expected to rise from 6.0% to 6.4%, although forecasts suggest the pace of change is slowing, with the monthly change expected to decelerate from 1.4% to 0.7%. With markets already twitchy, a meaningful surprise on either side is likely to see an amplified reaction.”

Where they expect IHT to be due on a pension fund, they can direct the pension scheme administrator to withhold up to 50% of the taxable benefits for up to 15 months from the date of the member’s death. The aim of any IHT due to then be paid directly from the pension scheme to HMRC.

These are helpful from an administration perspective. They mean responsibility for calculating and reporting any IHT sits with the personal representatives, while giving scheme trustees time to value and, where necessary, realise pension scheme assets.

Additionally, where death benefits are subject to both IHT and income tax, the Finance Act 2026 provides for income tax deductions to offset IHT paid, helping to prevent double taxation.

Whether the assets can easily be valued when the time comes. Cash holdings and quoted shares are usually straightforward to value, while unquoted shares and commercial property are likely to require input from professional third parties, such as qualified accountants and surveyors. Members may wish to explore this in advance.Whether the assets can be disposed of easily. If assets need to be sold to meet a tax liability, trustees should consider how long this could take.

This will also depend on whether any exemptions apply, such as where assets pass to a surviving spouse or civil partner.

A regulated financial adviser may also be able to help members consider steps to reduce a future IHT liability, such as making use of available IHT exemptions, making regular gifts from the estate, or updating their Will.

For example:

BW’s SIPP and SSAS pension scheme administrators are not authorised to provide regulated financial advice in relation to these questions. Scheme members should therefore discuss their circumstances and agree a robust plan with their financial adviser.

Any queries about how these considerations relate to your pension scheme should, in the first instance, be directed to your usual client manager.

‘Split Market Reviews in Cyber BI Towers: Why It’s Time for a Rethink’ has been published by the IUA together with the leading advisory, tax and assurance firm Baker Tilly. It argues that there is a growing appetite for reform.

Joe Shaw, IUA Director of Claims, said: “Each organisation, within often quite intricate insurance structures, is working towards the same goal – an efficient and fair resolution of the claim. Yet a lack of coordination can inadvertently introduce delays. A market protocol sitting within a tower policy wording, could provide clarity for all participants on what to expect if and when an incident occurs.”

Ben Hobby, Partner at Baker Tilly, said: “Business interruption is often perceived as one of the more challenging aspects of the cyber claim process. We are therefore delighted to partner with the IUA on this report, where we share some of our thoughts and observations, based on our own claims experience, of what a market protocol could include to help smooth the process for insurers and policyholders alike.”

To build on the findings of the new report, the IUA will, in the coming months, be convening market practitioners to consider potential solutions and practical next steps for the cyber insurance market.

The association operates two formal discussion forums for cyber business in the London company market – a Cyber Underwriting Group and a Cyber Reinsurance Committee.

While the latest skirmishes between the US and Iran, including the downing of an American Apache helicopter, are proving unsettling. But the key market driver is set to be the US inflation data out later. The CPI numbers are set to show another painful rise in costs for consumers, who are already grappling with sharp increases in the costs of everyday goods. The expectation is that the headline rate will rise to 4.2% year-on-year with a 0.5% jump in May. The big concern is that elevated wholesale energy costs are spreading and settling into the broader economy. The latest attacks in the Middle East indicate that the conflict is entrenched and increasingly hard to solve. Brent crude, the benchmark, has edged higher from yesterday’s lows and is fluctuating as pessimism ebbs and flows.

Energy stockpiles are diminishing, as nations scramble for supplies. US industry data from the API showed US crude inventories fell by 9.1 million barrels last week to their lowest level in four months.

As the supply crunch continues, demand for energy, labour and materials is becoming more voracious amid the AI revolution. Tech giants are spending huge sums on building out the infrastructure to power artificial intelligence, and that’s pushing up costs all over the place. Data centres are hungry for energy, and although longer-term productivity gains could lower costs, for now AI demand is adding to inflationary pressures. The hypervaluations we are seeing demand a mega build-out of infrastructure to support the promise of societal transformation.

The AI space is increasingly crowded with companies priced for perfection jostling for investors' attention. Elon Musk is aiming to rocket higher than the rest with his SpaceX listing garnering huge attention. It’s adding to the jitters which the market can’t shake off, and it’s likely that the SpaceX launch on Friday will ignite fresh volatility.”

Ends

A new working paper on synthesising arrangements across 13 countries and the US states shows that when private markets strain, governments consistently re-enter catastrophe insurance systems. Rather than replacing the insurers, they expand risk pooling and enable forms of cross-subsidization that sustain coverage.

The message is clear: keeping up will require upgraded public–private “rules of the road” for pooling, pricing signals, data/model governance, and incentives to reduce risk, not just more capital.

That assumption is starting to break. In many markets, the practical question is no longer only “can we model this?” but “can we keep offering cover at terms that are both viable and politically acceptable?” Increasingly, the answer depends on shared arrangements between private markets and public institutions. Sometimes that’s deliberate. Often it happens by default.

Two forces are driving this shift. First, catastrophe losses are becoming more severe and more correlated. Second, the underlying risk landscape is changing, as climate trends and exposure growth weaken the link between historical experience and future losses.

This is visible through higher premiums and deductibles, tighter limits, more exclusions, more non-renewals – alongside a wider gap between economic losses and insured losses.

As this uncertainty increases, it affects the entire risk-transfer chain. Reinsurance and insurance-linked securities are priced off the same loss distributions as primary insurance. If model risk and correlation rise, capital demands a higher return and becomes more selective.

As a result, reinsurance hardens; terms tighten; and those costs feed straight back into primary pricing and availability. In some high-risk regions, cover becomes economically unworkable even before you get to consumer willingness-to-pay.

Across jurisdictions, governments repeatedly assume roles as insurer, reinsurer, pool designer, or backstop, especially when catastrophe risk is highly correlated, politically sensitive, and economically destabilizing. The labels vary (“temporary”, “exceptional”, “market stabilization”), but in practice many of these arrangements behave like standing institutions.A helpful way to think about this is as four recurring public–private “regimes”:

Four ways the public sector shows up

None of this is free. Residual pools can become concentrations of bad risk. Blunt subsidies can weaken incentives for mitigation or for moving out of harm’s way. Public backstops can build liabilities that are politically invisible, until the event arrives.

The question is not “should governments be involved”? Experience suggests they will be. The real question is how the rules are set, and how often they are revisited as hazard and exposure keep shifting.

The goal isn’t to eliminate disagreement about risk. It’s to stop disagreement from becoming a source of fragility. Useful interventions include:

But voluntary resilience investment is constrained; by liquidity, myopia, and coordination failures. In practice, sustained risk reduction usually needs a mix of:

Crucially, these measures only help insurability if they are measurable, enforceable, and connected to underwriting and pricing decisions.

For insurers and reinsurers, balance sheet strength and technical modelling still matter. However, strategic advantage increasingly comes from operating well inside these hybrid systems: engaging credibly with regulators and policymakers, helping shape workable pooling and subsidy rules, and turning “resilience” into something that can be verified, priced and rewarded.

For research and innovation-led partnerships such as the Willis Research Network, the opportunity is to make this debate less reactive. Catastrophe insurability under climate change isn’t just a technical problem, but equally a governance challenge at the intersection of science, markets and public policy. Better frameworks, clearer trade-offs, and shared approaches to handling uncertainty can shape decisions before the next shock forces them.

Ultimately, the central question is not whether governments will be involved in catastrophe insurance, they already are. The question is how effectively these hybrid systems can be designed and governed as climate risk continues to evolve.

*Source: adapted from RFF Working Paper, “Co-Managing Natural Catastrophic Risks by the Insurance Industry and Government”. A paper supported by the Willis Research Network.

Authors

There were over two-thirds of a million (670,000) admissions funded by Private Medical Insurance (PMI) through 2025, the highest level ever recorded and 5,000 more than 2024 (665,000) - marking the fifth consecutive year of growth.

This was in part thanks to a record Q1, which saw the highest quarter ever of 175,000 PMI funded admissions, exceeding the previous record quarter of 170,000 in Q1 2024 by a significant 5,000 admissions. Q3 and Q4 2025 - 162,000 and 168,000 respectively - were also higher than 2024 levels.

PMI-funded admissions have risen by almost a fifth (16%) since pre-pandemic levels, when 579,000 PMI-funded admissions were registered in 2019.

Year on year growth in PMI-funded admissions has fallen from 31% in 2021, 14% in 2022, 11% in 2023 and 6% in 2024, to a mere 0.8% in 2025. As insured admissions are a key driver of overall admissions growth, this has also been reflected in total private admissions, with the rate of year on year growth falling from 45% in 2021 to just 0.6% in 2025.

Meanwhile, NHS waiting lists fell by 137,000 over 2025 to 7.29 million in December, hitting the lowest level in just under three years (February 2023 – 7.22 million). The first three months of 2026 have seen the NHS backlog for hospital treatment fall further, reducing to 7.11 million in March 2026 – the lowest level since August 2022.

There are concerns however that progress in reducing the waiting list for hospital treatment may be a ‘false dawn’, as data shows an increase in the waiting list for diagnostic tests. A record 1.92 million patients3 are now waiting for a diagnostic test in England, suggesting that progress in reducing the headline waiting list may be masking pressures that are building up elsewhere in the system.

“The slowing rate of growth reflects the normalisation of PMI-funded admissions following the post-pandemic surge, and signals that claims inflation is beginning to cool. This will come as welcome news to employers who have seen PMI costs increase in recent years due to high claims costs.”, said Brett Hill, Head of Health & Protection at Broadstone.

“Demand for workplace health benefits remains very much ‘on the up’ however, and we’re seeing this on the ground as employers continue to deploy PMI and other health benefits as part of a strategy to support workplace health and reduce sickness absence.

“While the fall in the headline numbers for NHS waiting lists is welcome news it masks a more complex reality for many patients, with the waiting list for diagnostic tests having increased, and with many employees struggling to access treatment for conditions that commonly keep people off work, such as MSK and mental health conditions.

“With the Keep Britain Working Review endorsing the role of businesses in fighting the UK’s economic inactivity crisis, and cooling claims inflation easing pressure on premiums at renewal, it looks likely that we will soon breach 1 million private treatments every year as businesses fill the UK’s healthcare gap with innovative PMI schemes.”

This is likely to accelerate the broader shift towards a more fragile supply-side environment, where geopolitical tensions, rising climate-related disruptions, and a slowdown in globalisation are collectively making supply chains less resilient. The conflict is not just a geopolitical event, but a macroeconomic shock, transmitted through oil, gas, shipping and insurance costs.

For long-term investors, the significance of the US-Iran conflict lies not only in heightened near-term volatility but in its exacerbation of longer-term systemic risks. We explore three broad areas of impact, highlighting the key developments that investors should be aware of:

Global energy-system disruption

Food-system and supply-chain instability

Adverse effects on climate and the environment

Global energy-system disruption

Disruption is rippling through markets at an alarming rate, particularly when it comes to energy supply and demand. The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz – a critical maritime corridor for around 20% of global energy trade, including seaborne oil and liquefied natural gas – has caused oil prices to rise, frequently reaching over $100 per barrel. This shock, or fluctuation in prices, is impacting global energy supply. In turn, this is driving energy-related inflation rises across major advanced economies.

In the short term, some governments are delaying phase outs or increasing fossil-fuel production to secure supply, increasing near term emissions exposure. But over the longer term, support for renewable energy could grow, with potential for new policies. At the same time, if the prices of fossil fuels continue to go up, this'll improve the relative economics of electric vehicles, solar, batteries and other clean energy technologies.

The race is on to extract money out of the roar of enthusiasm for companies providing the backbone to the artificial intelligence revolution. There’s now a hat trick of mega listings on the cards, with OpenAI’s filing for an IPO coming hot on the heels of Anthropic and SpaceX. The research company behind the hugely successful ChatGPT had first-mover advantage, buoyed by an early deal with Microsoft, but Anthropic has gained ground and is tackling adeptly from behind, winning reams of enterprise contracts.

The price of staying at the top of the game is eye-watering for OpenAI – it’s estimated to be spending more than $100 billion a year on the infrastructure and processing power to support its services and power the next generation of AI models. To stay high and dry in its AI fortress, the company reckons that by spending at this level, it will create a moat too difficult to cross for the competition, enabling it to keep raking in revenues and eventually turn big profits. But this is a risk, especially with technological developments moving so fast, and future models not necessarily needing the capacity. The risk is that swathes of this infrastructure could become obsolete.

AI is a relatively new game, the rules have not been fully drawn up - with regulation still playing catch-up - so potential winners and losers are still hard to pin down. Investors should tread carefully amid the coming months of IPO fervour, and take part only if they are highly diversified, and with money they may be prepared to lose given the risks right now.

Inflationary fears are still swirling, which are set to continue to cause jitters around technology stocks, given the potential impact on interest rates. Attacks by Iran and Israel may have ceased, but significant progress is still needed in talks to find a longer-term resolution to the Middle East crisis. Brent crude, the benchmark, has fallen back to trade around $93 a barrel. But even at this level, prices are still 30% higher than before the conflict broke out, and continue to be a burden for companies and consumers around the world.

But China has turned another chapter in its story of resilience amid the fallout from the Middle East crisis and tariff turmoil. Exports have surged 19.4% year on year to a record $376.8 billion in May. The strength of its manufacturing sector is shining through amid concerns about global trade. It seems that concerns over supply chain disruptions and higher energy costs are encouraging firms worldwide to build up stocks, reinforcing China’s role as the dominant supplier of industrial goods. Despite the tariff barriers repeatedly thrown up by the Trump administration, exports to the US strengthened, with shipments rising by more than 35%. There’s little sign that the US is going to wean itself off dependence on Chinese manufacturing any time soon.”

Highlights  

Shalin Bhagwan, PPF Chief Actuary, said: “During May, market sentiment continued to be shaped by the energy uncertainty from the conflict in the Middle East. Asset and liability values of the PPF-eligible DB universe increased over the month as bond yields eased slightly. Softer data releases and optimism on conflict resolution helped to bring down inflation expectations and reduced market confidence that central banks will tighten policy later in the year. At the same time, overseas equity markets continued to perform well, supported by resilient corporate earnings - particularly in the US - and ongoing investor optimism around AI-driven growth.

Against this backdrop, the PPF 7800 index recorded a £5.3bn increase in the estimated aggregate funding position, taking it to a surplus of £263.8bn. The funding ratio remained steady at 131.2 per cent, as both scheme asset and liability values rose by 2.0 per cent." 

View the June update and see the supporting data on the 7800 Index for 31 May 2026 here: The PPF 7800 index | Pension Protection Fund.

Close to a third (32%) of financial advisers and IFAs say that when thinking about their clients' investment solutions within their Centralised Investment Propositions, it is MPS solutions that are the main building block.

Other ways investment solutions for clients are constructed include multi asset funds (27%), in-house investment portfolios (24%), or bespoke DFMs (17%).

Each service holds its own benefits to clients, though with MPS leading the way, this allows advisers to offer scalable and discretionary investment management to clients, with portfolios that are regularly rebalanced and aligned to specific risk profiles. In supporting advisers with investment considerations, it allows them to also focus on other areas of client service and better manage Consumer Duty regulations that impacted how they do business.

For example, 32% of advisers say that Consumer Duty has renewed the focus on what services or solutions they offer to clients, while the same number (32%) say they have become more selective in what strategic partnerships they use. Another 30% say consumer duty has helped advisers do more business, while 29% have needed to bring in external governance support to help them in how they do business. 28% revealed they’ve needed to do a lot more training and development.

Following recent changes to the Capital Gains Tax (CGT) allowance, advisers report increased activity in reviewing and recommending investment solutions across client portfolios.

Within this broader shift, many are turning to model portfolios as part of how they construct and manage investment solutions (87% more likely to recommend model portfolios). This reflects a wider reassessment of portfolio construction, with MPS forming a core part of that mix.

Rebecca Stein, Head of Product at Charles Stanley, part of Raymond James Wealth Management, comments: "Advisers are undergoing a clear structural shift in how they construct and deliver client portfolios. While multi-asset funds continue to play a role, there is a growing preference for outsourced, centralised investment solutions.

MPS is increasingly moving to the core of these strategies, offering greater consistency, efficiency and governance, as well as freeing up time for advisers to focus on their clients.

Importantly, many advisers are looking to go further – moving beyond simply selecting portfolios, to shaping how they are constructed, to align more closely with an adviser’s proposition and client needs.

At Charles Stanley, we partner with IFAs in a way that suits their needs, offering everything from off-the-shelf MPS to fully collaborative, co-manufactured solutions. This provides a structured, institutionally robust framework that enables advisers to design, deliver and defend a strong Centralised Investment Proposition – without compromising their independence or identity, which remains a key priority for many firms as they scale.

As the industry continues to shift towards greater personalisation and tailored solutions, we expect MPS to remain a core building block in client portfolios for years to come.”

This gap can leave you vulnerable to significant financial losses. Guest damage, theft, or related liability claims simply won't be covered by standard policies – and you might not discover this until it's too late.

Tamzin shares five insurance checks every homeowner should make before listing a holiday let:

Review your existing policy wording carefully. Does your current home insurance package explicitly exclude short-term holiday lets? Read the terms and conditions word for word. Many standard policies don't cover lettings at all – and some only cover longer-term residential lets. Don't assume - double check.

Understand what ‘guest damage’ actually means. Guest damage isn't the same as general wear and tear. Your policy needs to spell out exactly what it covers. Will it pay out if a guest damages the shower screen, breaks a window, or damages furniture? What about accidental damage caused by negligence? Get clarity in writing.

Check your public liability limits. Public liability insurance protects you if a guest is injured on your property – from misused hot tub to electrical faults. Make sure your policy includes this cover and that the limit is appropriate for rental property where multiple guests come and go.

Declare your rental activity. You need to tell your insurer about any rental activity, even if it’s just occasional. Failure to disclose this could mean any claim is rejected outright. Be transparent from the start. If your insurer isn't comfortable with holiday lettings, then shop around and find one that is – but never hide the activity.

Compare specialist holiday let insurance. Short-term rental policies are designed specifically for this purpose and might be cheaper than you think. They often cover guest liability, damage caused by guests, loss of income if you have to cancel bookings, and even legal costs. It's worth getting quotes from dedicated holiday let insurers alongside your standard home insurance provider.

Tamzin Metcalfe concludes: "Letting out a room in your home can be a great money maker, but make sure you have all the protections in place before you start. Check your cover level before you list your property. It takes ten minutes and could save you thousands."

Trustees and providers who may have measured their default against alternative benchmarks will now need to ensure their default measures up against their peers. VfM will also look at charges and service metrics and may expand to include metrics on engagement and support. Efficiency and engagement will impact retirement incomes, and both can be improved through economies of scale.

The Act retains the requirement for automatic enrolment qualifying schemes to operate at least one main scale default arrangement with £25bn or more invested. If a scheme becomes non-qualifying, all employees will need to be enrolled into a new scheme. While the market and voluntary mergers may avoid this scenario, regulation is likely to focus on the run up to 2030 and how orderly exits are managed.

An override to contractual terms for workplace personal pension scheme members will allow transfers without consent, where there is a reasonable expectation of a better outcome in a new scheme or default arrangement. The key rules will cover the “best interest test” and the role of the “independent expert” required to approve transfers, potentially creating a new role for actuaries

Better returns, lower charges and consolidation into more efficient schemes that can invest in better service and engagement will potentially drive bigger pension pots, but poor decisions and lack of support at retirement could undermine all that hard work.

The proposals to transform the at-retirement journey might be the final piece of the Pension Schemes Act jigsaw. It’s also an area where rules and regulations could make a significant difference. Since the 1990’s when savers were routinely expected to take an annuity with their workplace pension provider, the emphasis had been on encouraging choice and shopping around. Rules and regulations will need to be carefully considered to ensure that savers are allocated to the right cohort, that good value default solutions meet their needs and that the overall process results in better decision making and a sustainable retirement income.

The Pension Schemes Act has the potential to significantly improve the lives of future pensioners by making the most of every pound saved. What the Act and pensions schemes can’t control is how many pounds are saved in the first place. The Pensions Commission is looking at how to address under-saving and improve retirement adequacy, adding that final piece of the workplace pensions puzzle.

There had been hopes that the US economy might stay in Goldilocks territory – not too hot and not too cold – but inflation concerns have reared up again, and the bears are back on the prowl.

Friday's US jobs report sparked a firestorm of selling, with big tech bearing the brunt of the wobble in confidence. Indices in Asia have been hit by the contagion of pessimism, with semiconductor stocks falling sharply. South Korea's Kospi plunged more than 8%, triggering a market-wide circuit breaker. The slide looks set to continue, with Wall Street bracing for another sell-off and European indices also caught up in the downbeat sentiment. The FTSE 100 is also set to trade lower, as wary sentiment spreads and investors in the internationally focused index fret about the prospects for global growth.

Markets are now pricing in a growing likelihood of a rate hike from the Fed this year, and potentially another next year. The Bank of England also looks on track to raise rates at least twice, given the repercussions of the Middle East crisis.

Higher interest rates reduce the value of future earnings and, given how heady tech valuations have become, it's not surprising that investors are reassessing allocations and opting for companies with more reliable income streams and dividends.

There had already been undercurrents of worry about the surge in tech stock prices and fears that today's insatiable demand for the apparatus needed to support AI products and services would eventually wane.

Fears of higher interest rates come just as tech giants, which have some of the deepest cash pockets, are seeking fresh funding to help finance eye-watering capital expenditure plans. The demand is voracious right now, but there is concern that assets being invested in today, at a time when the technology is so expensive, could become obsolete further down the road. So, tech is starting to fall out of fashion, while companies operating in the 'real economy' may be more sought after - those selling consumer staples, providing healthcare, or keeping the lights on through utility services.

Bonds may provide more reliable returns, but they too are suffering as interest rate expectations have been sharply adjusted, particularly in the US. Treasuries have sold off and gilts have continued to come under pressure, illustrated by the rise in yields, especially for longer-duration bonds. Investors don't want to be locked into lower rates for an extended period when they can secure higher returns from new issuances.

This is a treacherous tide which risks lifting other governments into more perilous waters, with UK gilt yields also rising as competition for returns intensifies across markets. With government borrowing costs climbing, public finances are set to become that bit more precarious. Another worry which, for now, is percolating in the background.”

The data also shows that almost 53,000 mandatory Pension Safeguarding Guidance (PSG) sessions have been carried out by the MaPS over the past four years. Despite this, they hold no data on how many of those sessions identified a genuine scam, led to a referral to Report Fraud, or resulted in a saver being advised not to proceed with their transfer.

The findings suggest that the bulk of transfers are slowed down unnecessarily - a frustrating process which can put savers off transferring their pensions - and one which could be significantly quicker with reform of the flag system, which PensionBee has called for as part of its 10-day Pension Switch Guarantee campaign.

Lisa Picardo, Chief Business Officer UK at PensionBee, said: "These findings are difficult to defend. After more than 51,000 Amber flags have been raised, those responsible for the implementation of the scam flag system are not clear on why almost half of Amber flags were raised, nor whether any scams were prevented.

"The cost falls on the ordinary savers trying to engage with their retirement savings - people who are trying to make better decisions about their retirement and are being forced through unnecessary bureaucratic hoops. What should be a simple and straightforward switch becomes a drawn-out ordeal, and that erodes trust in financial services and puts people off engaging with their retirement altogether.

"This is not what the well-meaning legislation was designed to do. The government's own stated intention, when it introduced these rules in 2021, was to protect savers from scams whilst allowing the majority of transfers to proceed without undue delay. Its own 2023 review confirmed that is not what is happening in practice. Until the rules are tightened, providers will still treat routine transfers as potential scams, and savers will keep paying the price."

Within months of implementation, the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) and The Pensions Regulator issued a joint statement acknowledging concerns. And the DWP's own 2023 review found the overseas flag ‘is not clearly defined’ and that savers ‘are being referred to MaPS unnecessarily.’ However the recommended consultation has not been introduced, three years later.

Some pension scheme trustees are choosing to follow the letter of the legislation rather than applying sensible risk-based judgments, pushing a huge number of consumers into a route which should be preserved for identifying and protecting against real scams. The difference in approach between schemes can lead to an inconsistent use of flags and a confusing experience for consumers.

Sean McCann said: “Too many people put off writing a will but it’s especially important for cohabiting couples as the laws of intestacy don’t provide for unmarried partners. If someone dies without a will, their partner has no automatic right of inheritance, and this is the case regardless of how long the couple have lived together or whether they have children. The surviving partner would need to make a claim on their late partner’s estate, which can be a time consuming and expensive process, with no guarantee of success. Claims must normally be made within six months of the grant of representation in England and Wales and within six months of the death in Scotland. To ensure their partner is able to benefit from their estate, it’s vital that cohabiting couples have valid up to date wills in place.”

2) Property ownership

Sean explained: “It’s important for any cohabiting couple that own a property together to check how they own it. If the property is held as ‘Joint tenants’ this means that on the death of one of the partners, their share in the property will pass to the survivor. If it is held as ‘Tenants in common’ each is free to leave their share to whoever they wish in their will. Issues can arise if one of the partners dies without a will and their share of the property passes under the laws of intestacy to children, parents, siblings or other relatives. Ownership can be changed from ‘Tenants in common’ to ‘Joint tenancy’ but it’s important to seek legal advice.”

3) Tax

- Inheritance Tax

Sean explained: “Married couples can normally pass assets to each other free from inheritance tax, but cohabiting couples don’t benefit from this exemption. This can trigger an inheritance tax charge on any assets left to the surviving partner after the other passes away.”

- Capital gains tax

Sean explained: “Giving property and investments to a cohabiting partner can also trigger a capital gains tax charge.
“This can make it more difficult to utilise two annual exemptions of £3,000 or take advantage of a partner’s lower tax rate when selling or giving away second properties or investments.”

-Income tax

Sean said: “The marriage allowance allows non-taxpayers to transfer up to £1,260 of their unused personal allowance to their basic rate tax paying spouse or civil partner. It’s worth up to £252 this tax year and claims can be backdated but is not available to cohabiting couples.”

4) Pensions

Sean said: “If one or both partners are current or deferred members of Defined Benefit schemes, it’s important to check what level of survivor’s pension would be payable to a cohabiting partner as this will vary between schemes. With regards to defined contribution schemes, trustees can’t normally make death benefit payments to an un-named non-dependant where there is a living dependant. This can cause issues if the deceased partner leaves a dependent child and didn’t name their partner on the expression of wish form. Similarly, issues may arise with ‘Death in service’ schemes provided by an employer, where the deceased has left other dependants but not named their partner as a potential beneficiary.”

5) Life insurance in trust

Sean said: ‘’The advantage of putting life insurance policies into trust is that the proceeds are normally free from Inheritance tax and the money can be paid out quickly on production of a death certificate. If your policy isn’t in trust, most insurance companies can provide the necessary forms free of charge.  Most trusts provided by insurers have standard classes of beneficiaries that include spouse, children and grandchildren. Trusts should be checked to establish if benefits could be paid to the cohabiting partner. This is particularly important if the life insurance policy predates the beginning of their relationship.”

The study states that segmentation will need to be placed at the centre of solution design, balancing the competing objectives of using available information to design meaningful pathways, while also remaining simple enough for members to engage with.

In addition, the report notes that while the recently passed Pension Schemes Act emphasises the provision of a regular income, it does not specify the extent to which solutions should seek to mitigate risks such as longevity, inflation, or investment volatility, or the degree to which schemes and providers should guide member choice. The analysis reveals that related objectives such as income security, flexibility, simplicity, and the ability to respond to changing circumstances over time cannot all be maximised simultaneously, meaning different approaches to design will reflect these varying priorities among memberships.

As a result, Guided Retirement may need to operate as an ongoing, dynamic pathway, rather than a one-off decision at the point of access, creating implications for when the pathway begins, how it evolves over time, and how members are supported to navigate shocks and revisit decisions. The investigation also finds that member communications will play a critical role in this area, underlining more widely that the effectiveness of Guided Retirement will be shaped by how it interacts with existing and emerging forms of support, including Pension Wise, targeted support, and regulated financial advice.

The examination provides a new independent evidence base to better understand the implications of the new changes for stakeholders across the sector.

Mariana García Requejo, PPI Senior Policy Researcher and lead author of the report, commented: “Guided Retirement has the potential to play a critical role in improving how individuals navigate retirement income decisions, but many questions lie ahead over its design and implementation. Competing objectives such as income security, flexibility, and simplicity present clear challenges for default solutions to meet a diverse range of member needs. In order to meet them as best as possible, it’s vital these solutions are understood as a gradual development towards a new layer of retirement support within the UK pensions system, rather than a single product innovation. During this crucial next phase of regulatory development, the PPI is delighted to deliver new independent insights to support informed Guided Retirement policy decision-making.”

Lizzy Holliday, Director of PA and Policy at Mercer’s now: pensions, said: “Guided Retirement represents an important step forward in supporting savers at retirement but there is further work to do to enable successful delivery. The report highlights how the risks faced by DC savers at retirement interact with key policy concepts. For example, the ‘default’ nature of the solution, regular income requirement, engagement and communications. We hope this report provides useful insights for government, regulators and industry - who are working hard to turn concepts into good outcomes for all savers.”

Joey Patel, Director of Policy, Pensions Reform, at The Pensions Regulator, said: “Members need more help to turn a savings pot into a sustainable retirement income and default pension benefit solutions have the potential to make a real difference. We urge schemes to start preparing now by getting to know their members, improving their data and considering how they will design and implement defaults that truly deliver better outcomes for members.”

Jamie Jenkins, Director of Policy at Royal London, said: "The decisions people make at retirement about their pension savings can shape their quality of life for decades. Good decisions can ensure financial security, but poor decisions could expose people to running out of money, reliant on the state for a basic level of support in their later years. In an ideal world, professional financial advice would be available to everyone, but this simply isn't the reality for most people reaching retirement today. The alternative idea of guiding people through their retirement choices therefore becomes crucial, and the Pensions Policy Institute’s report provides a rich source of analysis and represents an important contribution to the debate."

Carolyn Jones, Retirement Director, Scottish Widows, stated: “Individuals are now facing an increasingly complex range of decisions at retirement, as they balance longer life expectancies, rising costs and often modest pension savings. Well-designed guided retirement solutions can play a critical role in helping people simplify the decisions they need to make about how to use their pot to provide a sustainable income. Guided retirement needs to sit alongside other support and advice to ensure people can make retirement choices that meet their needs.”

Jonathan Watts-Lay, Director, WEALTH at work, added: “Retirement decisions are complex and highly personal, and experience shows most people want support with this. A generic default pathway risks people sleepwalking into choices that don’t fit their circumstances or meet their needs, particularly as many retirees are likely to have multiple pension pots with varying amounts saved into each. The PPI’s research highlights how Guided Retirement can potentially improve outcomes; however, many members will need personal guidance to help them understand the options available and ensure they make an informed decision across all of their pensions.

We have had a lot of interest shown in Retirement Guidance services as a means of helping individuals to understand their options prior to making any decision. This type of support, alongside digital services and tools, are likely to become best practice as Guided Retirement solutions are launched. Specialist workplace providers who can deliver tailored, high-quality and robust retirement support at scale will be key to its success.”

In the UK, house prices dipped back in May as the war-induced energy crunch took a toll. Worries about rising household bills and fears that interest rates will be hiked this year have dampened demand. While on an annual basis prices are still up 0.5%, month-on-month they fell 0.1%. The shortage of properties in sought-after locations is likely to have kept big pockets of the market more resilient, but the downward trend is evident.

On the geopolitical front, conflicting messages from both Iran and the US have seen sentiment turn erratic. For now, oil prices are managing to stabilise around $95 a barrel, in the absence of a big reignition in the US military campaign. But there remain big questions about how negotiations can meaningfully progress, especially with Israel’s actions in Lebanon such a sticking point. Hezbollah rejected proposals for a ceasefire, and although there are now reports it's seeking fresh talks with the US, this will be a highly complex situation to resolve. The US military action in Iran has opened a can of worms, with a slippery mix of geopolitical tensions escaping diplomatic attempts at containment, and threatening to unsettle markets further.

Usually, a crisis of this kind would have had a more crushing effect on valuations given the inflationary risks it brings. A fifth of the world’s energy supplies are still facing huge disruption due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. However, the bright lights of AI have been bleaching out the geopolitical worries on the world stage. But doubts are beginning to creep back in about the durability of mega revenue streams, which has led to a spate of profit-taking. This has been prompted by chipmaker Broadcom’s update. Although the huge earnings it's raking in are highly impressive, a very high bar has been set, and expectations for future sales were missed. The company is standing by its $100 billion AI revenue forecast for fiscal 2027 and didn’t upgrade it. While this is a mega number, Broadcom shares are around nine times the level they were at before the groundbreaking launch of ChatGPT in 2022. With such a rapid ascent, it's not surprising there are wobbles at this height. Shares slid more than 12%, prompting falls for other tech stocks in Asian trade. While it's clear there is voracious demand for AI products and services, the extent to which spending by companies is being front-loaded is not clear.

There is also a longer-term risk that the huge capital expenditure projects being unleashed could weigh down innovation-focused tech companies with mega infrastructure assets which risk becoming outdated in the future.”

New Europe-wide research from CRIF reveals that half of all European consumers (50%) cite Middle East instability as a key concern affecting their personal finances over the next 12 months.

The conflict has created ongoing disruption to shipping routes and fuel supplies, causing significant global supply chain and energy shocks that are being felt acutely across the UK and Europe.

In the UK specifically, the conflict is now joint-top with ongoing high inflation and rising costs (both 51%) as the biggest concern for consumers, and far ahead of other economic and geopolitical issues including the war in Ukraine (29%) and strained relations with the US (30%).

For European businesses, the Middle East conflict ranks as the second biggest threat to their business after rising inflation and costs (39%). In the UK, it ranks as the third biggest threat at 34%, behind inflation and domestic economic slowdown (both 37%) and ahead of concerns over slowdown globally (28%) and in Europe (26%).

Top UK consumer and business concerns

The pressure is also shaping business financial decision making. A third of UK businesses (34%) have already revised their growth plans, a quarter have prioritised cost-efficiency (26%) and even more have paused hiring (28%). On the consumer side, nearly a third (32%) have reduced the amount they put into savings, while 17% have increased their use of credit services like Buy Now, Pay Later.

Sara Costantini, Regional Director for the UK & Ireland at CRIF, said: "Geopolitical shocks are no longer distant headlines for European households and businesses – they are directly shaping how people spend, borrow and plan for the future.

“In the UK in particular, the picture is downbeat. British consumers are now among the most pessimistic in Europe about their personal finances for the year ahead, with more than half already planning to cut back. Tighter affordability, rising fraud risks and growing uncertainty mean many households and businesses are finding it harder to access the support they need, just as financial pressure is intensifying.

“Financial services remain highly valued, but confidence in delivery is fragile. For banks and lenders, rising credit risk across mortgages, SME lending, and consumer credit is likely to drive more conservative underwriting, lending and investment strategies. The providers best placed to navigate this period will be those that combine stronger, data-led decision-making with a genuinely human understanding of the pressures their customers are facing – ensuring that risk management does not come at the expense of access, trust and financial resilience."

The findings form part of CRIF’s upcoming 2026 Banking on Banks report series. The first report, to be published in June, will look at the biggest financial pressures currently facing European consumers and businesses.

The changes aim to give investors clearer insight into how climate risks – such as floods, storms and other extreme weather events – could affect investment performance, while reducing unnecessary costs to firms.

Michelle Beck, director of wholesale buy-side at the FCA, said: 'As part of being a smarter, more proportionate regulator, we’re cutting complexity in our rules for asset managers, while keeping the focus on clear, useful information for investors.

'These proposals will make it easier for firms to communicate with their customers in ways that genuinely inform and engage them.'

The proposals follow a review of how the current rules are working. The FCA found that while the rules have improved firms’ awareness of climate risks, product-level reports are often seen as too complex by investors and not widely used.

The FCA is seeking views from asset managers, asset owners, trade bodies, and consumer groups to make sure the proposed rules work in practice and support growth.

Researchers at the Lloyd’s insurer found so called “supershear” earthquakes accounted for 66% of insured losses from earthquakes since 2016 – equivalent to $13.2 billion - yet are absent from seismic hazard models, building design codes and insurance catastrophe models.

The paper, published in the Journal of Catastrophe Risk and Resilience, warns this blindspot could have significant implications for capital and pricing decisions, particularly in major earthquake zones such as California – leading to calls for urgent action to be taken by risk carriers and catastrophe model vendors.

Supershear earthquakes occur when rupture along a fault travels faster than usual creating a shockwave similar to a jet aircraft’s sonic boom. The result can be far stronger ground shaking, alongside a “double punch” effect caused by successive seismic waves.

According to the paper, supershear earthquakes can produce “unusual torsional forces” on buildings, particularly taller structures, while also creating stronger shaking that travels further away from the fault.

While supershear earthquakes were once considered rare, they are being identified more frequently as seismic technology improves. Around 36% of major strike slip earthquakes globally since 2010 have involved supershear rupture.

Luke Wedmore, Senior Research Analyst at MS Amlin, who co-authored the study alongside William Sturgeon, Research Analyst, said: “There are still lots of things we don’t know about supershear earthquakes, but the evidence now suggests they are more common - and potentially far more damaging - than previously understood.

“The sonic boom produced by these ruptures can cause more intense and widespread damage – yet the impact is significantly underestimated in models used for capital and pricing decisions for earthquake risks.”

The researchers pointed to the magnitude 7.7 Myanmar earthquake in 2025 - identified as a supershear event - which produced a surface rupture stretching 475km, around 230km longer than estimates would have predicted. This materially increases the area exposed to shaking, the paper said.

The findings carry particular relevance for California, the world’s largest earthquake insurance market, where the San Andreas Fault is vulnerable to supershear. The 1906 San Francisco earthquake has since been identified as a supershear event.

Wedmore said: “Given the higher shaking intensities caused by supershear earthquakes, there is a significant chance that earthquake risk in California is markedly underestimated. With California potentially experiencing its longest major earthquake drought in 1,000 years, now is a critical moment for the industry to address this blindspot.”

MS Amlin modelled the impacts of supershear effects on representative insurance and reinsurance portfolios, finding that losses at a 200-year return period increased by 5% to 10%. At 500-year return periods, losses jumped between 30% and 60%.

Wedmore urged insurers to move quickly to ensure supershear risks are captured before the next generation of catastrophe models is finalised.

Wedmore added: “We have already updated our catastrophe models and view-of-risk to incorporate supershear effects and better understand the potential impacts on our portfolios.

“As the scientific evidence continues to strengthen, the wider industry must urgently do the same to incorporate supershear ruptures and their consequences.

“With major model vendors preparing to update US earthquake models following revisions to the national seismic hazard framework, a narrow window is open for the industry to close this gap.”

Insurers and catastrophe model vendors could begin addressing the issue immediately through stress tests and enhanced sensitivity scenarios to assess the risk in the short term, the paper said.

Among the steps proposed were identifying long strike-slip faults capable of supershear rupture and testing alternative shaking patterns within catastrophe models.

“The next steps need to involve collaboration between scientists, engineers, risk practitioners and the (re)insurance industry to advance the science and simultaneously produce practical solutions, regulations and guidance,” the paper said.

Supershear Earthquakes – An insurance blind spot, by MS Amlin researchers Luke Wedmore and William Sturgeon, is published in the Journal of Catastrophe Risk and Resilience.

The Broadstone Sirius Index has published its May tracking for a ‘growth focused’ and a more conservative ‘matching focused’ investment strategy against a low dependency basis. Both schemes started 90.0% funded at the start of 2026.

Reporting its update for May 2026, the Broadstone Sirius Index found that the growth focused scheme performed best through the month, increasing the funding level by 0.5 percentage points to 92.2%. This was accompanied by funding level volatility, with a 1.7% difference in the maximum and minimum funding levels achieved in May,

The funding level of the ‘matching focused’ scheme decreased by 0.3 percentage points from 89.7% at the end of April to 89.4% at the end of May. It was a less bumpy ride, though, with the difference in the maximum and minimum funding level being 0.9% during the month.

Chris Rice, Head of Trustee Services at Broadstone, commented: “Pension schemes largely held their funding positions throughout May. The higher growth asset exposure performed better but this was accompanied by funding level volatility.

“This is all well and good when growth assets are performing well. In the face of global political and economic uncertainty, however, this could quickly reverse and trustees should consider whether their employer covenant supports this exposure.

“It also raises the questions of surplus erosion if conditions reverse with surplus maintenance becoming an increasingly important challenge for trustees.”

The OECD has called the Middle East disruption the dominant force in its latest economic outlook. The report paints a relatively strong backdrop, with “output boosted by strong AI-related investment, production and trade, lower tariff barriers and supportive financial and fiscal conditions.” So, while global growth forecasts for this year have been revised downwards from 3.4% to 2.8%, 2027 forecasts have been held at 3.1%. However, its prolonged disruption scenario sees pressure on both inflation and growth, with Asian energy importers likely to feel the worst of it. In this scenario, global growth is set to turn negative by the end of 2026 before recovering over the course of 2027.

Oil traders, however, appear to be holding on to hopes that the current situation will be transient rather than permanent. Brent Crude prices are down slightly at close to $97 per barrel. While the Strait of Hormuz remains technically closed, around 10% of normal traffic volumes are still making it through. Meanwhile, President Trump has made further suggestions that a deal could be reached within days.

US stock futures are down this morning after Wall Street backed off from record highs yesterday. Most of the weakness came from big tech shares, with healthcare and consumer staples enjoying a rally as investors sought to top up on defensive positions.

Custom chip designer Broadcom saw its shares fall around 14% in after-hours trade. First quarter revenue grew by 48% to $22.19 billion, with both top and bottom-line numbers landing close analyst forecasts. Q2 revenue guidance also came in ahead of market expectations but with the stock up 38% so far this year investors clearly wanted more. Management has kept its longer-term powder dry too keeping its 2027 guidance of above $100 billion for AI chip sales unchanged despite strong progress on the ground with customers such as Meta, Alphabet, Open AI and Anthropic.”

The findings come in the wake of The Pensions Regulator’s (TPR) updated guidance (December 2025), which reinforces that trustees remain legally responsible for administration quality, even when outsourced.

According to the data, 38% of schemes are taking action, 16% are benchmarking, and 14% are conducting service reviews, while 8% are actively looking to replace their provider. Of those seeking a new provider, 80% cite poor service - particularly in project delivery - as the primary driver. 62% of schemes also have no plans to review or benchmark their administration.

Sankar Mahalingham, Head of Pensions Growth at Law Debenture, commented: "Member expectations have been fundamentally reshaped by the digital world. Accustomed to frictionless service in banking and retail, members now apply those same standards to their retirement. When administration falls short - through poor communication, data errors or slow processing - the impact is often felt during the most emotionally and financially significant moments of a members life."

“While the level of activity is encouraging on the surface, much of it remains reactive. For many schemes, administration only rises to the top of the boardroom agenda when risks or failures have already manifested - often when it is too late to prevent member harm.

"The question facing trustees is no longer simply whether their administrator is performing, but whether they have the governance frameworks in place to properly assess and oversee that performance"

Nvidia used one of the chip industry’s biggest annual showcases, Taiwan’s Computex conference, to underline a familiar point: the AI hardware race still runs through its technology. The key message was around AI factory economics, with Vera Rubin moving into full production and Nvidia arguing that lower running costs, faster output and longer useful life can matter more than headline chip prices. RTX Spark added another strand to the story, pushing Nvidia further into AI PCs with a Blackwell GPU and custom Grace-based CPU, though this is an incremental opportunity rather than a main driver. The bigger picture is that Nvidia is trying to show it can stretch beyond data centre GPUs without losing focus on the core engine of demand, and all signs point to a company executing on that strategy.

Gold’s been out of the spotlight of late, struggling to regain its shine, with prices holding below $4,500 an ounce. Stronger US jobs data didn’t help, denting hopes of near-term rate cuts. A jump in US job openings and a drop in layoffs point to a labour market that still has plenty of heat in it, giving the Federal Reserve more reason to keep interest rates higher for longer. Attention will now turn to Friday’s non-farm payrolls report as the next indication of where the rate path might be headed.

Oil prices are slowly climbing, with Brent moving above $97 a barrel as fresh Middle East tensions added another layer of risk to supply expectations. Reports of Iranian missile launches and US retaliatory strikes kept the geopolitical premium firmly in place, even as President Trump insisted talks with Iran are still active. There was a tighter supply angle too, with industry data pointing to a 6.8 million barrel drop in US crude inventories last week, which would mark a sixth straight weekly draw if confirmed by official figures later today.”

The scheme is sponsored by a mid-Devon based property management company, Lowman Manufacturing Limited (“the Company”).

The transaction secures the full benefits of all 115 uninsured members, comprised of 52 deferred members and 63 members with pensions in payment, and completed in March. The Company had set aside a reserve to meet any shortfall and the thorough preparation meant that pricing received came well within budget.

The Scheme’s existing administrator did not have the experience and capacity to prepare for a bulk annuity market approach, so Broadstone’s SM&RT Insure – Admin stepped in, adding to its existing actuarial, investment consultancy and recently appointed risk transfer advice services provided to the Scheme. Broadstone was able to provide insurer data within 3 months of the administration going live, enabling its SM&RT Insure risk broking team to work with L&G and rapidly transact the buy-in.

Having reviewed the wider market, the Trustees selected L&G’s Flow solution for smaller pension schemes.

Chris Rice, Deal Lead and Head of Trustee Services at Broadstone, commented: “When we started discussing a potential buy-in last year, with the Company setting aside funds to facilitate the transaction, it quickly became clear that dedicated and expert administration support was required. It is satisfying that Broadstone’s administration could deliver market-ready data so quickly and facilitate this transaction with L&G at pace.”

Bruce Beacham, Chair of Trustees, said: “After two past buy-ins and a bulk transfer out of the defined contribution section, it is rewarding now to have secured the benefits of our remaining members. L&G was a natural partner to consider given they were already heavily involved in the Scheme. We are grateful to Broadstone for the administration support and helping to secure a price that was well within the Company’s reserve.”

Dominic Moret, Head of Origination and Execution, Institutional Retirement at L&G, added: “This transaction demonstrates how our Flow proposition can deliver certainty, efficiency and smooth execution for schemes approaching their endgame. By novating the Scheme’s existing L&G asset holdings, the buy-in price was directly aligned to those assets, effectively locking in pricing and giving Trustees confidence in the outcome. The approach helps minimise costs, remove unnecessary market risk, and supports schemes in achieving a well-matched, efficient transition to securing positive outcomes for their members.”

The FCA has written directly to football clubs, mainly in the Premier League, to warn about their relationships with these firms and remind them of their responsibilities to fans.

Lucy Castledine, director of consumer investments at the FCA, said: 'Millions of football fans trust their club’s badge. Clubs should not let unauthorised financial firms exploit that loyalty by putting potentially dodgy products in front of millions of fans. A logo on a shirt means one thing: that firm paid for it. Fans should always check the firm using our Firm Checker tool before buying a financial product and help us show the red card to those that would risk your money.'

You should check any financial services firm before you use them.

The FCA expects every UK football club to conduct proper due diligence on financial services sponsors before signing, and on an ongoing basis. Where the FCA has already identified concerns, it has spoken directly to the club. Where action is needed, the FCA will take it.

The FCA is engaging with the Government and external partners like the Premier League and the Independent Football Regulator to tackle this across the sport.

Instead, AI enthusiasm is still the talk of the town, with Anthropic is joining the listing party, filing paperwork for an IPO later this year. The company is clearly keen to capitalise on mega-enthusiasm washing through markets for artificial intelligence investments. It’s hot on the heels of SpaceX’s filing, and there are expectations that OpenAI will also go public pretty soon. Anthropic may attract particularly strong investor demand because it has built a reputation as one of the more enterprise-focused and safety-conscious AI firms. Its Claude models are considered to be strong performers for business use, especially among companies concerned about reliability, regulation and data security. Backing from major technology groups, including Amazon and Google, gives Anthropic access to enormous computing resources and distribution channels. Combined with growing enterprise adoption of Claude, this could make the company particularly attractive to investors seeking exposure to the AI infrastructure boom.

The listings are set to intensify excitement around AI, but they may also fuel concerns that parts of the market may be entering bubble territory. The huge investor appetite expected for these flotations underlines how strongly AI enthusiasm is creating mega valuations across the US technology sector. However, much of their explosive growth has happened away from public markets. By the time these firms eventually float, a large share of the value creation has often already been captured by early private investors, leaving retail investors at risk of jumping in after much of the lift-off has already occurred.

There are clear echoes of the dot.com era, when soaring optimism around the internet pushed technology stocks to dizzying heights before confidence collapsed as funding conditions tightened. Some of those parallels can’t be ignored today as AI excitement has propelled Wall Street to record highs. However, today’s AI leaders are generally stronger businesses than many of the speculative companies that dominated the dot.com boom. Firms such as Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI are building ecosystems around AI, data infrastructure and compute power which could shape the global economy for decades.

However, high-profile IPOs can still become turning points for market sentiment if valuations appear too detached from fundamentals. Any disappointment could trigger a wider reassessment across tech stocks, which have soared in value. But while some companies may not survive the hype cycle, others could ultimately justify today’s lofty valuations, just as Amazon did after surviving the dot.com crash. The rules of the AI race are evolving so quickly that some of tomorrow’s winners may still be under the radar. That’s why investors need to remain selective, diversified and realistic about risk.”

There will be opportunities at every stage of the value chain - from product design and marketing to underwriting, pricing, claims reserving and customer service. The most forward-thinking insurers are therefore developing roadmaps for AI transformation, working across every business unit to identify new use cases and to move forward with implementation.

Critically, insurers have started to put theory into practice, often with impressive results. For example, WTW worked with a large UK motor insurer that had become increasingly concerned about a rise in its lapse rates. Having identified the segment of the business where this rise appeared to be concentrated, it was possible to apply large language models (LLMs) to analyse transcripts from the insurer’s call centre. This identified a recurring theme in conversations with customers; they complained that a specific area of the insurer’s new business customer journey wasn’t working as intended, making it difficult to renew their policies.

It’s a good example of how AI can help insurers identify issues and opportunities that are hidden in plain sight. Using language embeddings to enable segmentation analysis, the LLMs were able to pinpoint the problem at the root of the increase in lapse rates. The insurer was then able to fix the issue at speed.

In another deployment, WTW worked with an Italian direct insurer that felt it should be making better use of its motor claims data to enhance underwriting, pricing and portfolio management. Using advanced modelling techniques to analyse this data more effectively, it proved possible to uncover new insights into risk patterns, these enabled the insurer to refine its underwriting and pricing activity.

The results observed so far are highly positive. The deployment is leading to better pricing, improved renewals and an enhanced loss ratio, and is becoming a key part of their active portfolio management process. The insurer also benefitted from improved underwriting workflows that increased operational effectiveness and profitability.

That, however, brings a new challenge – the need to manage and monitor these models to ensure they deliver the maximum possible value. It’s the same challenge that a farmer planting multiple crops faces – each one has to be nurtured and maintained for the harvest to be optimised.

What insurers need here is a means to manage ongoing advanced analytics, pricing, underwriting and portfolio management. New technologies and services now coming on stream make it possible to automate analysis of insurers’ emerging AI experience so that their growing crops of models continue to yield relevant business insight rapidly and efficiently. Such tools monitor expanding model portfolios, surface early signs of deterioration, and ensure models remain reliable, compliant and aligned with business objectives.

In practice, that means monitoring and managing all the models deployed so that any segments where model health is deteriorating can be quickly identified and rectified. In an environment where insurers will be increasingly dependent on those models for competitive advantage, managing the uncertainties and complexities around them will be an ever-more critical task. It will go beyond governance and oversight, enabling better risk control and more active portfolio management.

The bottom line? The potential of AI to transform insurance is clear – businesses not taking advantage risk being left behind. But as deployments accelerate, insurers will also need to monitor and manage growing numbers of models in order to maximise the value they create. That will be a key task in the transformation challenge.

“Under 65s might be tempted to pile their full £20,000 ISA allowance into the cash version while stocks last, but it’s worth considering if a Stocks and Shares ISA could be a better home for money that you won’t need in the next five years or more. We already had sticky inflation before the Iran conflict, and further surges are expected as the full impact of supply chain disruption and energy shocks filters through.

“While it’s important to have an emergency cash buffer at hand and to keep anything you’re likely to need soon in cash, there’s a significant risk inflation will eat into your interest returns on anything held in cash for the long term. History shows that investing in the stock market beats cash and inflation over the long term, so it could be worth investing money you don’t need to call on for five years or more to give your wealth the best chance to grow.

“There was a surge in money leaving interest-bearing accounts (£13.1 billion), but rather than money being spent and leaving the system, this will largely be explained by the flight into Cash ISAs. There was also a slight increase in money added into accounts that pay no interest, which could be a symptom of the ongoing global uncertainty and worries over cost of living rises to come.”

Source: AJ Bell analysis of Bank of England data. Monthly changes of MFIs’ sterling Cash ISA deposits from households.

“But there is a glimmer of hope, as April’s approval figures saw another increase to 65,900, above both the 64,000 seen in March and the six-month average of 63,100. This increase in future lending prospects will be down buyers looking to lock in deals as mortgage costs rise. April saw the effective rate on new lending start to creep up, to 4.08% from 4.03% in March.”

Since the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) took over regulation of the sector from the Claims Management Regulator (CMR) in April 2019, the number firms operating in this part of the market has fallen for every single one of the past seven years.

The number of firms authorised to provide claims management services in April 2026 is now just 483, nearly halving from 942 when the FCA started to regulate the market.

There was a particularly notable drop of 24% between April 2020 (923) and April 2021 (704). This is likely to have been a consequence of the new FCA authorisation, rules and fees regime and claims management companies (CMCs) pre-empting the FCAs later introduction of fee caps.

FOI made by Broadstone: the number of firms authorised to provide regulated claims management services since the FCA took over from the CMR on 1 April 2019.

The FOI was made by Broadstone after the FCA announced a review into the claims management sector in May 20261. The regulator said that the probe was launched “following concerns that consumers are being failed by some CMCs and law firms.”

Phil Smith, Head of Redress at Broadstone, commented: “The sharp decline in the number of authorised claims management firms since the FCA took over regulation reflects a market that has come under far greater scrutiny and regulatory pressure in recent years. Higher standards around governance, conduct and consumer outcomes have undoubtedly raised the bar for firms operating in the sector.

“While increased oversight has helped drive out some poor practices, the FCA’s decision to launch a fresh review highlights that concerns around consumer harm and poor behaviour have not gone away entirely. This has been reflected in the multiple warnings issued around the motor finance compensation scheme.

“The challenge for the regulator will be ensuring consumers remain properly protected without reducing competition and access to redress services too far. Firms operating in this market will also need to demonstrate robust controls, transparency and clear value to consumers if they are to remain sustainable under the FCA’s more intensive regulatory framework.

“From a consumer point of view, people should fully understand what they are signing up to, what fees may apply and whether free-to-access routes such as the Financial Ombudsman Service are available before entering into agreements.”

We look forward to welcoming you back next month.

The housebuilding sector has a softer market signal to digest this morning, with Nationwide house price growth slowing to 1.7% in May and prices falling 0.6% month-on-month, the first monthly decline so far this year. The pressure is coming from a familiar place: higher energy prices and market interest rates have knocked confidence and cooled buyer demand, which matters for a sector still trying to rebuild momentum after a tough few years. But this does not look like a broken buyer backdrop just yet, with solid household finances, savings buffers and improving affordability suggesting weakness could prove temporary if energy prices settle and geopolitical tensions ease.

Oil has found its way back onto the worry list, as hopes for a cleaner US-Iran breakthrough run into fresh uncertainty. The market had started to price in some relief from a possible ceasefire extension and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, but the risk premium has not disappeared, especially with the route still central to global energy flows. For equity markets, that keeps oil in an awkward spot: high enough to feed inflation and rate worries, but volatile enough to make any improvement in sentiment look fragile.

Earnings season is winding down, but there are still a few important names for investors to watch this week. BATS is unlikely to deliver major surprises after reiterating guidance last month. But the focus will be on whether full-year targets still look achievable given pressure on duty-free sales, tobacco volumes and consumer demand - with pricing, New Category sales and second-half profit delivery shouldering the responsibility for meeting guidance. Broadcom is the bigger growth story, with AI demand expected to drive another set of punchy numbers, but expectations are already high, so investors will be looking beyond any headline beat to the order book, future AI guidance, and whether margins can hold up as custom chips and networking become an even bigger part of the mix.

The Pensions Commission’s recent interim report on the state of retirement saving in the UK identifies Generation X as one of the most at-risk cohorts. This reflects their timing: many entered the workforce as defined benefit pensions were disappearing, with fewer employers offering workplace schemes, and before automatic enrolment helped normalise consistent saving.

Where Baby Boomers largely benefited from both generous pension, Generation X faces a far more fragmented picture - one that appears to tilt towards property rather than liquid, tax-efficient investments.

A Rathbones survey of 3,092 UK adults - including 1,025 Gen Xers and 1,050 Baby Boomers - shows that while Gen Xers are more likely to have pensions - excluding final salary schemes - they are almost twice as likely to own a buy-to-let property (17% vs 9% for Baby Boomers).

However, they are less likely to hold tax-efficient investments such as ISAs (66% vs 78%) or other investment accounts (45% vs 52%).

Rebecca Williams, Financial Planning Divisional Lead at Rathbones, says: “Many Gen Xers are sleepwalking into retirement with far less financial security than their parents. They came of age as defined benefit pensions were disappearing and have since faced years of stagnant wage growth and repeated financial shocks, making it harder to build robust, long-term savings.

“This cohort also represents a large part of the ‘sandwich generation’, juggling day-to-day costs while supporting both ageing parents and children. As a result, boosting retirement savings can be difficult amid ongoing financial pressures.

“It’s perhaps no surprise that property - particularly buy-to-let - has been seen as an alternative route to funding retirement. But relying on property as a pension can leave retirees overly exposed to a single, illiquid asset at a time when flexibility is most needed.”

Rathbones’ “Don’t Bet the House” research suggests the conditions that drove strong property returns in previous decades have already shifted. Between 1980 and 2016, UK house prices rose by around 6.7% a year (8.5% in London), comfortably outpacing inflation. Crucially, today’s investors are unlikely to benefit from the same tailwinds. Since 2016, UK house prices have risen by just 3.7% annually - barely keeping pace with inflation - while London property has underperformed, rising by just 1.3% a year (to start of 2025).

Over the same period, stock markets have delivered significantly stronger returns: £100 invested in London property in 2016 would today be worth around £111, compared with £174 if invested in equities.

Isabella Galliers-Pratt, Senior Investment Director at Rathbones says: “The conditions that fuelled the property boom have long since changed. Property is less flexible than pensions or investments, and rental income can be less predictable—particularly as higher interest rates, tax changes and rental reforms have squeezed returns and added complexity for landlords. The idea that property is always a ‘safe bet’ no longer holds true in many parts of the country.

“By contrast, pensions benefit from upfront tax relief, tax-efficient growth and access to diversified investments, making them a more structured and effective way to build long-term retirement income. A more resilient approach typically involves balancing different asset classes, ensuring pensions, investments and property work together to meet income needs and align with personal risk tolerance.”

The Pension Commission’s Interim Report found that the UK has one of the lowest gross national savings levels (as % of GDP) against comparative economies, with around 15 million people currently under saving for retirement. This suggests that many savers share the Commission’s concerns around the scale of the retirement savings challenge facing the UK, indicating there would be broad public support for measures aimed at improving retirement outcomes.

TPT’s findings should therefore give policymakers confidence to pursue bold reforms to improve retirement adequacy.

Ruari Grant, Head of Policy & External Affairs at TPT Retirement Solutions, said: “Our research shows that the public agrees with the experts. Last week the Commission highlighted the scale of the under-saving problem, and while we might often imagine people are unaware of this, that is not the case, meaning the Commission has a clear mandate to pursue meaningful reforms.

“Automatic enrolment has created strong foundations for retirement saving in the UK, but at current contribution levels many savers will still face inadequate outcomes in retirement. The focus should now turn to ensuring the pensions system delivers the retirement people expect and deserve.”

TPT also welcomed the Commission’s focus on decumulation. Improving retirement outcomes is not only about increasing contributions, but also about ensuring that the system people are saving into will deliver an adequate retirement.

TPT has previously found that nearly 70% of DC savers* would be interested in a solution that provides a sustainable inflation-linked income in retirement. With only a fifth (22%) of savers say they are willing to pay for financial advice, effective frameworks at the point of retirement are essential to improving outcomes.

Grant added: “Good retirement outcomes do not simply depend on how much people save during their working lives. Savers also need straightforward, reliable ways to access and use their pension savings in retirement, without having to navigate unnecessary complexity or make difficult financial decisions alone.

“The debate has moved beyond encouraging people to save. The challenge now is ensuring the system people are saving into is capable of delivering a lasting retirement income.”

What all that actually means is anybody’s guess, but oil traders are taking an optimistic view that the end could be in sight for disruption in the region, and Brent Crude oil prices have taken another step down to under $92 per barrel, around 20% off the peaks seen earlier in the month.

US stock futures have moved tentatively upwards after both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ touched new high-water marks on Thursday. Softer than expected core inflation (PCE) data for April (0.24% month-on-month) and an encouraging 0.11% in real personal consumption helped add a touch of confidence to market expectations that US base rates will remain stable for the rest of the year. According to CME’s FedWatch, the probability of a quarter-point rise fell from 38.3% to 37.1%.

But a quarter point here or there is likely to make little difference to Dell whose shares are basking in the glow of a set of forecast-crushing first quarter earnings, as the company’s ramp of its AI server business accelerates. AI server revenue growth of 757% helped underlying earnings per share more than triple to $4.86, racing past forecasts of $2.96. A 19% raise in full-year revenue guidance to around $167bn and $51.3bn backlog for AI servers suggests this is more than just a flash in the pan. Investors are rushing to get on board the AI super cycle train, pushing the shares up 39% in after-hours trading.

AI infrastructure companies have been a core driver of an incredible first-quarter earnings season for US stocks and can take much of the credit for the strong performance of the leading indices. With forward earnings multiples of the tech-led NASDAQ composite barely above the 10-year average, however, it feels like the bulls could still have further to run yet.“

The analysis of more than 670 data centre projects under construction or planned across the US found 320 facilities located in states classified as being at high risk of tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds.

Existing data centres in high-risk states for SCS are valued at almost $20bn, the study found, suggesting that future AI infrastructure in storm-exposed regions could be nearly 40 times the value of existing facilities.

SCS has become a major driver of insured losses. Last year, SCS events generated $52bn in insured losses in the US – making it the costliest region and peril globally. Swiss Re reports insured losses from such storms have grown by roughly 8% a year since 2008.

The findings underline the scale of investment flowing into states at risk of natural catastrophes as development of new hyperscale facilities shifts to southern regions where land and power are more favourable.

Martin Burke, MS Amlin’s Chief Underwriting Officer, said: “These numbers highlight both the opportunity and the risk. Hundreds of billions of dollars of new digital infrastructure are being directed towards regions at higher risk of potentially destructive severe convective storms. When assets of this scale cluster in hazard prone regions, the potential loss severity from a single storm event can rise very quickly. This is a growth opportunity for the specialty insurance market, but the risks must be properly managed and understood.”

Data centres are typically insured through multiple business lines including property, cyber and credit and political risk. Without careful oversight, insurers can unknowingly accumulate exposure to the same facility across multiple policies.

To address the risk, MS Amlin has developed a proprietary aggregation monitoring database to track data centre exposures across its underwriting portfolios.

Burke added: “As AI investment accelerates, insurers must adopt more advanced ways to manage aggregation risk. If the industry is slow to address this challenge, it could restrict the deployment of capital and roll out of AI infrastructure.

“Our proprietary database of hundreds of US data centre projects lets us capture the risk not just from tightly clustered facilities but also from supporting infrastructure like power generation. This provides a far more accurate picture of overall exposure.

“This visibility allows us to deploy capacity responsibly to support the sector’s growth while maintaining underwriting discipline. The ability to monitor aggregation risk is becoming increasingly important as this class continues to grow.”

Control over the Strait of Iran appears to be at the centre of the tensions. Iran has now wielded such power over the key waterway that it may not want to give up control, which the US is deeming unacceptable. The Trump administration has placed sanctions on the newly formed Persian Gulf Strait Authority, which is attempting to impose a new maritime regime in the waters. It won’t let ships pass without permission, but if ships deal with the Iranians they could be breaching these new sanctions. So, another impasse has developed and, if it isn’t fully resolved, could remain a source of friction and trigger supply chain snarl ups in the future. With elevated energy prices on the move higher again, tensions are already fanning the fires of inflation. They are also set to weigh heavily on consumer demand, as household bills rise and shoppers tighten their belts across the world.

But the bigger tide washing over global markets remains the demand for AI, which continues to push up valuations as rapid earnings growth develops. Goldman Sachs’ estimates that Spring profits will keep powering the S&P 500 higher, after an exceptionally robust first quarter. Demand right now for the technology to build out the backbone for AI advances seems insatiable, but it’s still unclear how long this appetite will remain voracious and when companies will have had their fill of technological spend.

For now, chipmakers are filling their boots with orders, and it’s sending valuations sky high. Driven by the huge demand for chips, South Korean chipmaker SK Hynix also joined the trillion-dollar club on Wednesday, a day after Micron Technology became a member. The sharp surge in their valuations is likely to set off alarm bells, but for now there is an expectation of further earnings growth ahead.”

However, complex risks exist along the value chain, which affect the bankability of CCS projects, and have slowed investment in the technology.

Insurance could play a critical role in bringing more CCS projects to market. Insurance products that work across the value chain and fill current coverage gaps can make investments in the technology more viable, as they open up financing options for developers.

Natural resources companies looking to develop CCS projects must understand the regulatory landscape as it stands and how the right insurance strategy can help them unlock protection for their carbon credits.

“There is a clear correlation globally between territories that have implemented clear CCS policies and pace of CCS development in these areas. The market demand for CCS is only there when legislation and regulatory policies are implemented by government. If the cost of CCS exceeds the tax savings/carbon credit value, or if the carbon credits are lost due to leakage or loss, then the project value proposition no longer stands up,” says Marie Reiter, Global Head of Broking Strategy, Willis Natural Resources.

No standard regulatory framework for CCS exists – instead, there is a patchwork of regulation across different geographies, which can directly impact the viability of a CCS project. But inconsistent or incomplete regulation across capture, transport, storage, and cross border movement directly amplifies the financial, operational, legal, and strategic risks that natural resources companies face when deciding whether to develop CCS projects. These elevated risks translate into slower adoption, deferred investment decisions, and difficulty securing financing.

There is no one-size-fits-all approach to CCS regulation. As government involvement in CCS projects varies from country to country, so too do their regulatory frameworks. Jurisdictions with minimal government control, including Norway and the Netherlands, tend to rely on a combination of ‘carrots’ and ‘sticks’ to drive investment in the technology.

Clear and appropriate regulations not only reduce risk for natural resources companies, making CCS deployment financially viable, they are also strategically aligned with national decarbonization goals.

CCS development hotspots

The first part of the exercise looked at which qualifying countries have seen the sharpest increase in 10-year government bond yields over the past year. On this measure, South Korea (+136bp), Colombia (+124bp), Japan (+110bp) and the Czech Republic (+79bp) came out on top. England, by contrast, ranked lower down the table, suggesting that despite perennial optimism among supporters, gilt market moves alone are not enough to carry the team to glory.

The second measure focused on the highest current 10-year government bond yields among qualified nations. On that basis, Brazil (14.1%) and Colombia (13.5%) sit near the top of the field, alongside other high-yielding emerging markets including Argentina (9.4%) and Mexico (9.2%). Taken together, the two approaches produce a shortlist of likely contenders, with Colombia appearing in both camps and Japan and Brazil emerging as particularly compelling candidates.

Based on the overlap between the two data sets, Rathbones’ notional semi-final line-up features South Korea, Colombia, Japan and Brazil, with Japan narrowly preferred to Argentina on the balance of the analysis. Applying a final active-management overlay, the team’s forecast points to Japan meeting Brazil in the final

Bryn Jones, Head of Fixed Income at Rathbones Asset Management, says: “We wanted to take a familiar bond market framework and apply it to something far less conventional. Looking at both the level of 10-year yields and the scale of the move over the past 12 months gave us a playful way to compare teams heading into the tournament. On our numbers, Japan and Brazil stand out, while Colombia appears consistently strong across both measures. Sadly, England are ranked 7th from our analysis (+46bp and 5.1% across both measures) and so have no chance of winning in our version of the tournament.”

Lewis Elliot, analyst at Rathbones Asset Management, adds: “England supporters may be disappointed that gilts do not point to a home victory, but the broader result is more interesting. Colombia scores well whichever way we cut the data, Japan shows strong recent momentum, and Brazil combines high yields with the pedigree you would expect from one of football’s most successful nations. That left us with a Japan versus Brazil final.”

As with any investment model, there are caveats. Some nations were excluded because comparable 10-year bond data was not available. Jones continues with an example: “Scotland do not have any government bonds at this time so can’t compete in this world cup. However, with Scottish government bonds, known as kilts, expected to come to the market in 2026/27, maybe by the next tournament Scotland will be a contender.”

Although this is not intended as a serious forecasting tool, it offers a way to show how market indicators can be interpreted, compared and debated — even when the subject is football rather than fixed income.

70% agreed ‘risks arising from the use of AI are among the greatest risks facing my sector over the next five years’.75% agreed ‘the risks posed by AI to my sector have increased substantially since generative AI technologies have become widely available'.The top three risks highlighted were cyber threats, misleading outputs, and knowledge gaps.

Generative AI has fundamentally changed the risk landscape not only because it can ‘hallucinate’, or present false or misleading information that appears authoritative. It also makes AI widely accessible, persuasive, easy to use and embedded in every day financial workflows. As firms increasingly build AI into tools and infrastructure, many of the most complex risks are ecosystem risks. Decisions that appear sensible for individual firms can create hidden dependencies and shared points of failure across the financial system.

The report’s AI risk framework identifies nine risks which are grouped into three broad categories: ‘outcomes’, ‘operating environment’ and ‘system’. These provide a useful way to trace how AI risk moves through the financial services ecosystem: from the outcomes experienced by customers and society, to the environment in which firms deploy AI, to the system-level dynamics through which risks can scale and spread.

The framework treats AI risks as trade-offs, rather than standalone downsides. Often, the risks are the direct counterpart of AI’s benefits – sharper prediction, deeper personalisation, greater scale and complexity, and more autonomous decision-making. Although risks cannot be eliminated altogether, the framework outlines how many can be moderated through better risk management, governance, and regulation.

Keyur Patel, LFBF Research Associate and report author, said: “The same characteristics that make AI useful in financial services also create many of the risks that make it so difficult to govern. The hard question, then, is not just whether these risks can be mitigated, but how much risk we are willing to live with in exchange for the benefits. That is why a recurring theme in this report is ‘uncomfortable tensions’: the same machinery can widen inclusion and sharpen exclusion; ‘human in the loop’ is not the same as human control; and concentration is baked into how AI systems are built. Generative AI gives these tensions new force. It lowers barriers to use, makes AI feel relatable and trustworthy, and is increasingly embedded in how financial institutions think and work. That matters because AI outputs can be useful, confident and wrong at the same time – and ‘mostly right’ can be dangerous.”

Paul Sweeting FIA C.Act, IFoA President, said: “AI is a defining force of our time. The IFoA’s Artificial Intelligence and Emerging Technologies Practice Board is exploring how transformative technologies are reshaping actuarial practice and influencing broader societal systems. It is also exploring what we need to do to seize the opportunities and manage the risks associated with AI-adoption. With our unique combination of technical skill, communication and professional oversight, actuaries must play a key role making sure that AI is working as it should.”