Trustees and providers who may have measured their default against alternative benchmarks will now need to ensure their default measures up against their peers. VfM will also look at charges and service metrics and may expand to include metrics on engagement and support. Efficiency and engagement will impact retirement incomes, and both can be improved through economies of scale.

The Act retains the requirement for automatic enrolment qualifying schemes to operate at least one main scale default arrangement with £25bn or more invested. If a scheme becomes non-qualifying, all employees will need to be enrolled into a new scheme. While the market and voluntary mergers may avoid this scenario, regulation is likely to focus on the run up to 2030 and how orderly exits are managed.

An override to contractual terms for workplace personal pension scheme members will allow transfers without consent, where there is a reasonable expectation of a better outcome in a new scheme or default arrangement. The key rules will cover the “best interest test” and the role of the “independent expert” required to approve transfers, potentially creating a new role for actuaries

Better returns, lower charges and consolidation into more efficient schemes that can invest in better service and engagement will potentially drive bigger pension pots, but poor decisions and lack of support at retirement could undermine all that hard work.

The proposals to transform the at-retirement journey might be the final piece of the Pension Schemes Act jigsaw. It’s also an area where rules and regulations could make a significant difference. Since the 1990’s when savers were routinely expected to take an annuity with their workplace pension provider, the emphasis had been on encouraging choice and shopping around. Rules and regulations will need to be carefully considered to ensure that savers are allocated to the right cohort, that good value default solutions meet their needs and that the overall process results in better decision making and a sustainable retirement income.

The Pension Schemes Act has the potential to significantly improve the lives of future pensioners by making the most of every pound saved. What the Act and pensions schemes can’t control is how many pounds are saved in the first place. The Pensions Commission is looking at how to address under-saving and improve retirement adequacy, adding that final piece of the workplace pensions puzzle.

The data also shows that almost 53,000 mandatory Pension Safeguarding Guidance (PSG) sessions have been carried out by the MaPS over the past four years. Despite this, they hold no data on how many of those sessions identified a genuine scam, led to a referral to Report Fraud, or resulted in a saver being advised not to proceed with their transfer.

The findings suggest that the bulk of transfers are slowed down unnecessarily - a frustrating process which can put savers off transferring their pensions - and one which could be significantly quicker with reform of the flag system, which PensionBee has called for as part of its 10-day Pension Switch Guarantee campaign.

Lisa Picardo, Chief Business Officer UK at PensionBee, said: "These findings are difficult to defend. After more than 51,000 Amber flags have been raised, those responsible for the implementation of the scam flag system are not clear on why almost half of Amber flags were raised, nor whether any scams were prevented.

"The cost falls on the ordinary savers trying to engage with their retirement savings - people who are trying to make better decisions about their retirement and are being forced through unnecessary bureaucratic hoops. What should be a simple and straightforward switch becomes a drawn-out ordeal, and that erodes trust in financial services and puts people off engaging with their retirement altogether.

"This is not what the well-meaning legislation was designed to do. The government's own stated intention, when it introduced these rules in 2021, was to protect savers from scams whilst allowing the majority of transfers to proceed without undue delay. Its own 2023 review confirmed that is not what is happening in practice. Until the rules are tightened, providers will still treat routine transfers as potential scams, and savers will keep paying the price."

Within months of implementation, the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) and The Pensions Regulator issued a joint statement acknowledging concerns. And the DWP's own 2023 review found the overseas flag ‘is not clearly defined’ and that savers ‘are being referred to MaPS unnecessarily.’ However the recommended consultation has not been introduced, three years later.

Some pension scheme trustees are choosing to follow the letter of the legislation rather than applying sensible risk-based judgments, pushing a huge number of consumers into a route which should be preserved for identifying and protecting against real scams. The difference in approach between schemes can lead to an inconsistent use of flags and a confusing experience for consumers.

This gap can leave you vulnerable to significant financial losses. Guest damage, theft, or related liability claims simply won't be covered by standard policies – and you might not discover this until it's too late.

Tamzin shares five insurance checks every homeowner should make before listing a holiday let:

Review your existing policy wording carefully. Does your current home insurance package explicitly exclude short-term holiday lets? Read the terms and conditions word for word. Many standard policies don't cover lettings at all – and some only cover longer-term residential lets. Don't assume - double check.

Understand what ‘guest damage’ actually means. Guest damage isn't the same as general wear and tear. Your policy needs to spell out exactly what it covers. Will it pay out if a guest damages the shower screen, breaks a window, or damages furniture? What about accidental damage caused by negligence? Get clarity in writing.

Check your public liability limits. Public liability insurance protects you if a guest is injured on your property – from misused hot tub to electrical faults. Make sure your policy includes this cover and that the limit is appropriate for rental property where multiple guests come and go.

Declare your rental activity. You need to tell your insurer about any rental activity, even if it’s just occasional. Failure to disclose this could mean any claim is rejected outright. Be transparent from the start. If your insurer isn't comfortable with holiday lettings, then shop around and find one that is – but never hide the activity.

Compare specialist holiday let insurance. Short-term rental policies are designed specifically for this purpose and might be cheaper than you think. They often cover guest liability, damage caused by guests, loss of income if you have to cancel bookings, and even legal costs. It's worth getting quotes from dedicated holiday let insurers alongside your standard home insurance provider.

Tamzin Metcalfe concludes: "Letting out a room in your home can be a great money maker, but make sure you have all the protections in place before you start. Check your cover level before you list your property. It takes ten minutes and could save you thousands."

The study states that segmentation will need to be placed at the centre of solution design, balancing the competing objectives of using available information to design meaningful pathways, while also remaining simple enough for members to engage with.

In addition, the report notes that while the recently passed Pension Schemes Act emphasises the provision of a regular income, it does not specify the extent to which solutions should seek to mitigate risks such as longevity, inflation, or investment volatility, or the degree to which schemes and providers should guide member choice. The analysis reveals that related objectives such as income security, flexibility, simplicity, and the ability to respond to changing circumstances over time cannot all be maximised simultaneously, meaning different approaches to design will reflect these varying priorities among memberships.

As a result, Guided Retirement may need to operate as an ongoing, dynamic pathway, rather than a one-off decision at the point of access, creating implications for when the pathway begins, how it evolves over time, and how members are supported to navigate shocks and revisit decisions. The investigation also finds that member communications will play a critical role in this area, underlining more widely that the effectiveness of Guided Retirement will be shaped by how it interacts with existing and emerging forms of support, including Pension Wise, targeted support, and regulated financial advice.

The examination provides a new independent evidence base to better understand the implications of the new changes for stakeholders across the sector.

Mariana García Requejo, PPI Senior Policy Researcher and lead author of the report, commented: “Guided Retirement has the potential to play a critical role in improving how individuals navigate retirement income decisions, but many questions lie ahead over its design and implementation. Competing objectives such as income security, flexibility, and simplicity present clear challenges for default solutions to meet a diverse range of member needs. In order to meet them as best as possible, it’s vital these solutions are understood as a gradual development towards a new layer of retirement support within the UK pensions system, rather than a single product innovation. During this crucial next phase of regulatory development, the PPI is delighted to deliver new independent insights to support informed Guided Retirement policy decision-making.”

Lizzy Holliday, Director of PA and Policy at Mercer’s now: pensions, said: “Guided Retirement represents an important step forward in supporting savers at retirement but there is further work to do to enable successful delivery. The report highlights how the risks faced by DC savers at retirement interact with key policy concepts. For example, the ‘default’ nature of the solution, regular income requirement, engagement and communications. We hope this report provides useful insights for government, regulators and industry - who are working hard to turn concepts into good outcomes for all savers.”

Joey Patel, Director of Policy, Pensions Reform, at The Pensions Regulator, said: “Members need more help to turn a savings pot into a sustainable retirement income and default pension benefit solutions have the potential to make a real difference. We urge schemes to start preparing now by getting to know their members, improving their data and considering how they will design and implement defaults that truly deliver better outcomes for members.”

Jamie Jenkins, Director of Policy at Royal London, said: "The decisions people make at retirement about their pension savings can shape their quality of life for decades. Good decisions can ensure financial security, but poor decisions could expose people to running out of money, reliant on the state for a basic level of support in their later years. In an ideal world, professional financial advice would be available to everyone, but this simply isn't the reality for most people reaching retirement today. The alternative idea of guiding people through their retirement choices therefore becomes crucial, and the Pensions Policy Institute’s report provides a rich source of analysis and represents an important contribution to the debate."

Carolyn Jones, Retirement Director, Scottish Widows, stated: “Individuals are now facing an increasingly complex range of decisions at retirement, as they balance longer life expectancies, rising costs and often modest pension savings. Well-designed guided retirement solutions can play a critical role in helping people simplify the decisions they need to make about how to use their pot to provide a sustainable income. Guided retirement needs to sit alongside other support and advice to ensure people can make retirement choices that meet their needs.”

Jonathan Watts-Lay, Director, WEALTH at work, added: “Retirement decisions are complex and highly personal, and experience shows most people want support with this. A generic default pathway risks people sleepwalking into choices that don’t fit their circumstances or meet their needs, particularly as many retirees are likely to have multiple pension pots with varying amounts saved into each. The PPI’s research highlights how Guided Retirement can potentially improve outcomes; however, many members will need personal guidance to help them understand the options available and ensure they make an informed decision across all of their pensions.

We have had a lot of interest shown in Retirement Guidance services as a means of helping individuals to understand their options prior to making any decision. This type of support, alongside digital services and tools, are likely to become best practice as Guided Retirement solutions are launched. Specialist workplace providers who can deliver tailored, high-quality and robust retirement support at scale will be key to its success.”

There had been hopes that the US economy might stay in Goldilocks territory – not too hot and not too cold – but inflation concerns have reared up again, and the bears are back on the prowl.

Friday's US jobs report sparked a firestorm of selling, with big tech bearing the brunt of the wobble in confidence. Indices in Asia have been hit by the contagion of pessimism, with semiconductor stocks falling sharply. South Korea's Kospi plunged more than 8%, triggering a market-wide circuit breaker. The slide looks set to continue, with Wall Street bracing for another sell-off and European indices also caught up in the downbeat sentiment. The FTSE 100 is also set to trade lower, as wary sentiment spreads and investors in the internationally focused index fret about the prospects for global growth.

Markets are now pricing in a growing likelihood of a rate hike from the Fed this year, and potentially another next year. The Bank of England also looks on track to raise rates at least twice, given the repercussions of the Middle East crisis.

Higher interest rates reduce the value of future earnings and, given how heady tech valuations have become, it's not surprising that investors are reassessing allocations and opting for companies with more reliable income streams and dividends.

There had already been undercurrents of worry about the surge in tech stock prices and fears that today's insatiable demand for the apparatus needed to support AI products and services would eventually wane.

Fears of higher interest rates come just as tech giants, which have some of the deepest cash pockets, are seeking fresh funding to help finance eye-watering capital expenditure plans. The demand is voracious right now, but there is concern that assets being invested in today, at a time when the technology is so expensive, could become obsolete further down the road. So, tech is starting to fall out of fashion, while companies operating in the 'real economy' may be more sought after - those selling consumer staples, providing healthcare, or keeping the lights on through utility services.

Bonds may provide more reliable returns, but they too are suffering as interest rate expectations have been sharply adjusted, particularly in the US. Treasuries have sold off and gilts have continued to come under pressure, illustrated by the rise in yields, especially for longer-duration bonds. Investors don't want to be locked into lower rates for an extended period when they can secure higher returns from new issuances.

This is a treacherous tide which risks lifting other governments into more perilous waters, with UK gilt yields also rising as competition for returns intensifies across markets. With government borrowing costs climbing, public finances are set to become that bit more precarious. Another worry which, for now, is percolating in the background.”

Sean McCann said: “Too many people put off writing a will but it’s especially important for cohabiting couples as the laws of intestacy don’t provide for unmarried partners. If someone dies without a will, their partner has no automatic right of inheritance, and this is the case regardless of how long the couple have lived together or whether they have children. The surviving partner would need to make a claim on their late partner’s estate, which can be a time consuming and expensive process, with no guarantee of success. Claims must normally be made within six months of the grant of representation in England and Wales and within six months of the death in Scotland. To ensure their partner is able to benefit from their estate, it’s vital that cohabiting couples have valid up to date wills in place.”

2) Property ownership

Sean explained: “It’s important for any cohabiting couple that own a property together to check how they own it. If the property is held as ‘Joint tenants’ this means that on the death of one of the partners, their share in the property will pass to the survivor. If it is held as ‘Tenants in common’ each is free to leave their share to whoever they wish in their will. Issues can arise if one of the partners dies without a will and their share of the property passes under the laws of intestacy to children, parents, siblings or other relatives. Ownership can be changed from ‘Tenants in common’ to ‘Joint tenancy’ but it’s important to seek legal advice.”

3) Tax

- Inheritance Tax

Sean explained: “Married couples can normally pass assets to each other free from inheritance tax, but cohabiting couples don’t benefit from this exemption. This can trigger an inheritance tax charge on any assets left to the surviving partner after the other passes away.”

- Capital gains tax

Sean explained: “Giving property and investments to a cohabiting partner can also trigger a capital gains tax charge.
“This can make it more difficult to utilise two annual exemptions of £3,000 or take advantage of a partner’s lower tax rate when selling or giving away second properties or investments.”

-Income tax

Sean said: “The marriage allowance allows non-taxpayers to transfer up to £1,260 of their unused personal allowance to their basic rate tax paying spouse or civil partner. It’s worth up to £252 this tax year and claims can be backdated but is not available to cohabiting couples.”

4) Pensions

Sean said: “If one or both partners are current or deferred members of Defined Benefit schemes, it’s important to check what level of survivor’s pension would be payable to a cohabiting partner as this will vary between schemes. With regards to defined contribution schemes, trustees can’t normally make death benefit payments to an un-named non-dependant where there is a living dependant. This can cause issues if the deceased partner leaves a dependent child and didn’t name their partner on the expression of wish form. Similarly, issues may arise with ‘Death in service’ schemes provided by an employer, where the deceased has left other dependants but not named their partner as a potential beneficiary.”

5) Life insurance in trust

Sean said: ‘’The advantage of putting life insurance policies into trust is that the proceeds are normally free from Inheritance tax and the money can be paid out quickly on production of a death certificate. If your policy isn’t in trust, most insurance companies can provide the necessary forms free of charge.  Most trusts provided by insurers have standard classes of beneficiaries that include spouse, children and grandchildren. Trusts should be checked to establish if benefits could be paid to the cohabiting partner. This is particularly important if the life insurance policy predates the beginning of their relationship.”

In the UK, house prices dipped back in May as the war-induced energy crunch took a toll. Worries about rising household bills and fears that interest rates will be hiked this year have dampened demand. While on an annual basis prices are still up 0.5%, month-on-month they fell 0.1%. The shortage of properties in sought-after locations is likely to have kept big pockets of the market more resilient, but the downward trend is evident.

On the geopolitical front, conflicting messages from both Iran and the US have seen sentiment turn erratic. For now, oil prices are managing to stabilise around $95 a barrel, in the absence of a big reignition in the US military campaign. But there remain big questions about how negotiations can meaningfully progress, especially with Israel’s actions in Lebanon such a sticking point. Hezbollah rejected proposals for a ceasefire, and although there are now reports it's seeking fresh talks with the US, this will be a highly complex situation to resolve. The US military action in Iran has opened a can of worms, with a slippery mix of geopolitical tensions escaping diplomatic attempts at containment, and threatening to unsettle markets further.

Usually, a crisis of this kind would have had a more crushing effect on valuations given the inflationary risks it brings. A fifth of the world’s energy supplies are still facing huge disruption due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. However, the bright lights of AI have been bleaching out the geopolitical worries on the world stage. But doubts are beginning to creep back in about the durability of mega revenue streams, which has led to a spate of profit-taking. This has been prompted by chipmaker Broadcom’s update. Although the huge earnings it's raking in are highly impressive, a very high bar has been set, and expectations for future sales were missed. The company is standing by its $100 billion AI revenue forecast for fiscal 2027 and didn’t upgrade it. While this is a mega number, Broadcom shares are around nine times the level they were at before the groundbreaking launch of ChatGPT in 2022. With such a rapid ascent, it's not surprising there are wobbles at this height. Shares slid more than 12%, prompting falls for other tech stocks in Asian trade. While it's clear there is voracious demand for AI products and services, the extent to which spending by companies is being front-loaded is not clear.

There is also a longer-term risk that the huge capital expenditure projects being unleashed could weigh down innovation-focused tech companies with mega infrastructure assets which risk becoming outdated in the future.”

New Europe-wide research from CRIF reveals that half of all European consumers (50%) cite Middle East instability as a key concern affecting their personal finances over the next 12 months.

The conflict has created ongoing disruption to shipping routes and fuel supplies, causing significant global supply chain and energy shocks that are being felt acutely across the UK and Europe.

In the UK specifically, the conflict is now joint-top with ongoing high inflation and rising costs (both 51%) as the biggest concern for consumers, and far ahead of other economic and geopolitical issues including the war in Ukraine (29%) and strained relations with the US (30%).

For European businesses, the Middle East conflict ranks as the second biggest threat to their business after rising inflation and costs (39%). In the UK, it ranks as the third biggest threat at 34%, behind inflation and domestic economic slowdown (both 37%) and ahead of concerns over slowdown globally (28%) and in Europe (26%).

Top UK consumer and business concerns

The pressure is also shaping business financial decision making. A third of UK businesses (34%) have already revised their growth plans, a quarter have prioritised cost-efficiency (26%) and even more have paused hiring (28%). On the consumer side, nearly a third (32%) have reduced the amount they put into savings, while 17% have increased their use of credit services like Buy Now, Pay Later.

Sara Costantini, Regional Director for the UK & Ireland at CRIF, said: "Geopolitical shocks are no longer distant headlines for European households and businesses – they are directly shaping how people spend, borrow and plan for the future.

“In the UK in particular, the picture is downbeat. British consumers are now among the most pessimistic in Europe about their personal finances for the year ahead, with more than half already planning to cut back. Tighter affordability, rising fraud risks and growing uncertainty mean many households and businesses are finding it harder to access the support they need, just as financial pressure is intensifying.

“Financial services remain highly valued, but confidence in delivery is fragile. For banks and lenders, rising credit risk across mortgages, SME lending, and consumer credit is likely to drive more conservative underwriting, lending and investment strategies. The providers best placed to navigate this period will be those that combine stronger, data-led decision-making with a genuinely human understanding of the pressures their customers are facing – ensuring that risk management does not come at the expense of access, trust and financial resilience."

The findings form part of CRIF’s upcoming 2026 Banking on Banks report series. The first report, to be published in June, will look at the biggest financial pressures currently facing European consumers and businesses.

The changes aim to give investors clearer insight into how climate risks – such as floods, storms and other extreme weather events – could affect investment performance, while reducing unnecessary costs to firms.

Michelle Beck, director of wholesale buy-side at the FCA, said: 'As part of being a smarter, more proportionate regulator, we’re cutting complexity in our rules for asset managers, while keeping the focus on clear, useful information for investors.

'These proposals will make it easier for firms to communicate with their customers in ways that genuinely inform and engage them.'

The proposals follow a review of how the current rules are working. The FCA found that while the rules have improved firms’ awareness of climate risks, product-level reports are often seen as too complex by investors and not widely used.

The FCA is seeking views from asset managers, asset owners, trade bodies, and consumer groups to make sure the proposed rules work in practice and support growth.

The Broadstone Sirius Index has published its May tracking for a ‘growth focused’ and a more conservative ‘matching focused’ investment strategy against a low dependency basis. Both schemes started 90.0% funded at the start of 2026.

Reporting its update for May 2026, the Broadstone Sirius Index found that the growth focused scheme performed best through the month, increasing the funding level by 0.5 percentage points to 92.2%. This was accompanied by funding level volatility, with a 1.7% difference in the maximum and minimum funding levels achieved in May,

The funding level of the ‘matching focused’ scheme decreased by 0.3 percentage points from 89.7% at the end of April to 89.4% at the end of May. It was a less bumpy ride, though, with the difference in the maximum and minimum funding level being 0.9% during the month.

Chris Rice, Head of Trustee Services at Broadstone, commented: “Pension schemes largely held their funding positions throughout May. The higher growth asset exposure performed better but this was accompanied by funding level volatility.

“This is all well and good when growth assets are performing well. In the face of global political and economic uncertainty, however, this could quickly reverse and trustees should consider whether their employer covenant supports this exposure.

“It also raises the questions of surplus erosion if conditions reverse with surplus maintenance becoming an increasingly important challenge for trustees.”

Researchers at the Lloyd’s insurer found so called “supershear” earthquakes accounted for 66% of insured losses from earthquakes since 2016 – equivalent to $13.2 billion - yet are absent from seismic hazard models, building design codes and insurance catastrophe models.

The paper, published in the Journal of Catastrophe Risk and Resilience, warns this blindspot could have significant implications for capital and pricing decisions, particularly in major earthquake zones such as California – leading to calls for urgent action to be taken by risk carriers and catastrophe model vendors.

Supershear earthquakes occur when rupture along a fault travels faster than usual creating a shockwave similar to a jet aircraft’s sonic boom. The result can be far stronger ground shaking, alongside a “double punch” effect caused by successive seismic waves.

According to the paper, supershear earthquakes can produce “unusual torsional forces” on buildings, particularly taller structures, while also creating stronger shaking that travels further away from the fault.

While supershear earthquakes were once considered rare, they are being identified more frequently as seismic technology improves. Around 36% of major strike slip earthquakes globally since 2010 have involved supershear rupture.

Luke Wedmore, Senior Research Analyst at MS Amlin, who co-authored the study alongside William Sturgeon, Research Analyst, said: “There are still lots of things we don’t know about supershear earthquakes, but the evidence now suggests they are more common - and potentially far more damaging - than previously understood.

“The sonic boom produced by these ruptures can cause more intense and widespread damage – yet the impact is significantly underestimated in models used for capital and pricing decisions for earthquake risks.”

The researchers pointed to the magnitude 7.7 Myanmar earthquake in 2025 - identified as a supershear event - which produced a surface rupture stretching 475km, around 230km longer than estimates would have predicted. This materially increases the area exposed to shaking, the paper said.

The findings carry particular relevance for California, the world’s largest earthquake insurance market, where the San Andreas Fault is vulnerable to supershear. The 1906 San Francisco earthquake has since been identified as a supershear event.

Wedmore said: “Given the higher shaking intensities caused by supershear earthquakes, there is a significant chance that earthquake risk in California is markedly underestimated. With California potentially experiencing its longest major earthquake drought in 1,000 years, now is a critical moment for the industry to address this blindspot.”

MS Amlin modelled the impacts of supershear effects on representative insurance and reinsurance portfolios, finding that losses at a 200-year return period increased by 5% to 10%. At 500-year return periods, losses jumped between 30% and 60%.

Wedmore urged insurers to move quickly to ensure supershear risks are captured before the next generation of catastrophe models is finalised.

Wedmore added: “We have already updated our catastrophe models and view-of-risk to incorporate supershear effects and better understand the potential impacts on our portfolios.

“As the scientific evidence continues to strengthen, the wider industry must urgently do the same to incorporate supershear ruptures and their consequences.

“With major model vendors preparing to update US earthquake models following revisions to the national seismic hazard framework, a narrow window is open for the industry to close this gap.”

Insurers and catastrophe model vendors could begin addressing the issue immediately through stress tests and enhanced sensitivity scenarios to assess the risk in the short term, the paper said.

Among the steps proposed were identifying long strike-slip faults capable of supershear rupture and testing alternative shaking patterns within catastrophe models.

“The next steps need to involve collaboration between scientists, engineers, risk practitioners and the (re)insurance industry to advance the science and simultaneously produce practical solutions, regulations and guidance,” the paper said.

Supershear Earthquakes – An insurance blind spot, by MS Amlin researchers Luke Wedmore and William Sturgeon, is published in the Journal of Catastrophe Risk and Resilience.

The findings come in the wake of The Pensions Regulator’s (TPR) updated guidance (December 2025), which reinforces that trustees remain legally responsible for administration quality, even when outsourced.

According to the data, 38% of schemes are taking action, 16% are benchmarking, and 14% are conducting service reviews, while 8% are actively looking to replace their provider. Of those seeking a new provider, 80% cite poor service - particularly in project delivery - as the primary driver. 62% of schemes also have no plans to review or benchmark their administration.

Sankar Mahalingham, Head of Pensions Growth at Law Debenture, commented: "Member expectations have been fundamentally reshaped by the digital world. Accustomed to frictionless service in banking and retail, members now apply those same standards to their retirement. When administration falls short - through poor communication, data errors or slow processing - the impact is often felt during the most emotionally and financially significant moments of a members life."

“While the level of activity is encouraging on the surface, much of it remains reactive. For many schemes, administration only rises to the top of the boardroom agenda when risks or failures have already manifested - often when it is too late to prevent member harm.

"The question facing trustees is no longer simply whether their administrator is performing, but whether they have the governance frameworks in place to properly assess and oversee that performance"

The OECD has called the Middle East disruption the dominant force in its latest economic outlook. The report paints a relatively strong backdrop, with “output boosted by strong AI-related investment, production and trade, lower tariff barriers and supportive financial and fiscal conditions.” So, while global growth forecasts for this year have been revised downwards from 3.4% to 2.8%, 2027 forecasts have been held at 3.1%. However, its prolonged disruption scenario sees pressure on both inflation and growth, with Asian energy importers likely to feel the worst of it. In this scenario, global growth is set to turn negative by the end of 2026 before recovering over the course of 2027.

Oil traders, however, appear to be holding on to hopes that the current situation will be transient rather than permanent. Brent Crude prices are down slightly at close to $97 per barrel. While the Strait of Hormuz remains technically closed, around 10% of normal traffic volumes are still making it through. Meanwhile, President Trump has made further suggestions that a deal could be reached within days.

US stock futures are down this morning after Wall Street backed off from record highs yesterday. Most of the weakness came from big tech shares, with healthcare and consumer staples enjoying a rally as investors sought to top up on defensive positions.

Custom chip designer Broadcom saw its shares fall around 14% in after-hours trade. First quarter revenue grew by 48% to $22.19 billion, with both top and bottom-line numbers landing close analyst forecasts. Q2 revenue guidance also came in ahead of market expectations but with the stock up 38% so far this year investors clearly wanted more. Management has kept its longer-term powder dry too keeping its 2027 guidance of above $100 billion for AI chip sales unchanged despite strong progress on the ground with customers such as Meta, Alphabet, Open AI and Anthropic.”

Nvidia used one of the chip industry’s biggest annual showcases, Taiwan’s Computex conference, to underline a familiar point: the AI hardware race still runs through its technology. The key message was around AI factory economics, with Vera Rubin moving into full production and Nvidia arguing that lower running costs, faster output and longer useful life can matter more than headline chip prices. RTX Spark added another strand to the story, pushing Nvidia further into AI PCs with a Blackwell GPU and custom Grace-based CPU, though this is an incremental opportunity rather than a main driver. The bigger picture is that Nvidia is trying to show it can stretch beyond data centre GPUs without losing focus on the core engine of demand, and all signs point to a company executing on that strategy.

Gold’s been out of the spotlight of late, struggling to regain its shine, with prices holding below $4,500 an ounce. Stronger US jobs data didn’t help, denting hopes of near-term rate cuts. A jump in US job openings and a drop in layoffs point to a labour market that still has plenty of heat in it, giving the Federal Reserve more reason to keep interest rates higher for longer. Attention will now turn to Friday’s non-farm payrolls report as the next indication of where the rate path might be headed.

Oil prices are slowly climbing, with Brent moving above $97 a barrel as fresh Middle East tensions added another layer of risk to supply expectations. Reports of Iranian missile launches and US retaliatory strikes kept the geopolitical premium firmly in place, even as President Trump insisted talks with Iran are still active. There was a tighter supply angle too, with industry data pointing to a 6.8 million barrel drop in US crude inventories last week, which would mark a sixth straight weekly draw if confirmed by official figures later today.”

The scheme is sponsored by a mid-Devon based property management company, Lowman Manufacturing Limited (“the Company”).

The transaction secures the full benefits of all 115 uninsured members, comprised of 52 deferred members and 63 members with pensions in payment, and completed in March. The Company had set aside a reserve to meet any shortfall and the thorough preparation meant that pricing received came well within budget.

The Scheme’s existing administrator did not have the experience and capacity to prepare for a bulk annuity market approach, so Broadstone’s SM&RT Insure – Admin stepped in, adding to its existing actuarial, investment consultancy and recently appointed risk transfer advice services provided to the Scheme. Broadstone was able to provide insurer data within 3 months of the administration going live, enabling its SM&RT Insure risk broking team to work with L&G and rapidly transact the buy-in.

Having reviewed the wider market, the Trustees selected L&G’s Flow solution for smaller pension schemes.

Chris Rice, Deal Lead and Head of Trustee Services at Broadstone, commented: “When we started discussing a potential buy-in last year, with the Company setting aside funds to facilitate the transaction, it quickly became clear that dedicated and expert administration support was required. It is satisfying that Broadstone’s administration could deliver market-ready data so quickly and facilitate this transaction with L&G at pace.”

Bruce Beacham, Chair of Trustees, said: “After two past buy-ins and a bulk transfer out of the defined contribution section, it is rewarding now to have secured the benefits of our remaining members. L&G was a natural partner to consider given they were already heavily involved in the Scheme. We are grateful to Broadstone for the administration support and helping to secure a price that was well within the Company’s reserve.”

Dominic Moret, Head of Origination and Execution, Institutional Retirement at L&G, added: “This transaction demonstrates how our Flow proposition can deliver certainty, efficiency and smooth execution for schemes approaching their endgame. By novating the Scheme’s existing L&G asset holdings, the buy-in price was directly aligned to those assets, effectively locking in pricing and giving Trustees confidence in the outcome. The approach helps minimise costs, remove unnecessary market risk, and supports schemes in achieving a well-matched, efficient transition to securing positive outcomes for their members.”

The FCA has written directly to football clubs, mainly in the Premier League, to warn about their relationships with these firms and remind them of their responsibilities to fans.

Lucy Castledine, director of consumer investments at the FCA, said: 'Millions of football fans trust their club’s badge. Clubs should not let unauthorised financial firms exploit that loyalty by putting potentially dodgy products in front of millions of fans. A logo on a shirt means one thing: that firm paid for it. Fans should always check the firm using our Firm Checker tool before buying a financial product and help us show the red card to those that would risk your money.'

You should check any financial services firm before you use them.

The FCA expects every UK football club to conduct proper due diligence on financial services sponsors before signing, and on an ongoing basis. Where the FCA has already identified concerns, it has spoken directly to the club. Where action is needed, the FCA will take it.

The FCA is engaging with the Government and external partners like the Premier League and the Independent Football Regulator to tackle this across the sport.

There will be opportunities at every stage of the value chain - from product design and marketing to underwriting, pricing, claims reserving and customer service. The most forward-thinking insurers are therefore developing roadmaps for AI transformation, working across every business unit to identify new use cases and to move forward with implementation.

Critically, insurers have started to put theory into practice, often with impressive results. For example, WTW worked with a large UK motor insurer that had become increasingly concerned about a rise in its lapse rates. Having identified the segment of the business where this rise appeared to be concentrated, it was possible to apply large language models (LLMs) to analyse transcripts from the insurer’s call centre. This identified a recurring theme in conversations with customers; they complained that a specific area of the insurer’s new business customer journey wasn’t working as intended, making it difficult to renew their policies.

It’s a good example of how AI can help insurers identify issues and opportunities that are hidden in plain sight. Using language embeddings to enable segmentation analysis, the LLMs were able to pinpoint the problem at the root of the increase in lapse rates. The insurer was then able to fix the issue at speed.

In another deployment, WTW worked with an Italian direct insurer that felt it should be making better use of its motor claims data to enhance underwriting, pricing and portfolio management. Using advanced modelling techniques to analyse this data more effectively, it proved possible to uncover new insights into risk patterns, these enabled the insurer to refine its underwriting and pricing activity.

The results observed so far are highly positive. The deployment is leading to better pricing, improved renewals and an enhanced loss ratio, and is becoming a key part of their active portfolio management process. The insurer also benefitted from improved underwriting workflows that increased operational effectiveness and profitability.

That, however, brings a new challenge – the need to manage and monitor these models to ensure they deliver the maximum possible value. It’s the same challenge that a farmer planting multiple crops faces – each one has to be nurtured and maintained for the harvest to be optimised.

What insurers need here is a means to manage ongoing advanced analytics, pricing, underwriting and portfolio management. New technologies and services now coming on stream make it possible to automate analysis of insurers’ emerging AI experience so that their growing crops of models continue to yield relevant business insight rapidly and efficiently. Such tools monitor expanding model portfolios, surface early signs of deterioration, and ensure models remain reliable, compliant and aligned with business objectives.

In practice, that means monitoring and managing all the models deployed so that any segments where model health is deteriorating can be quickly identified and rectified. In an environment where insurers will be increasingly dependent on those models for competitive advantage, managing the uncertainties and complexities around them will be an ever-more critical task. It will go beyond governance and oversight, enabling better risk control and more active portfolio management.

The bottom line? The potential of AI to transform insurance is clear – businesses not taking advantage risk being left behind. But as deployments accelerate, insurers will also need to monitor and manage growing numbers of models in order to maximise the value they create. That will be a key task in the transformation challenge.

Instead, AI enthusiasm is still the talk of the town, with Anthropic is joining the listing party, filing paperwork for an IPO later this year. The company is clearly keen to capitalise on mega-enthusiasm washing through markets for artificial intelligence investments. It’s hot on the heels of SpaceX’s filing, and there are expectations that OpenAI will also go public pretty soon. Anthropic may attract particularly strong investor demand because it has built a reputation as one of the more enterprise-focused and safety-conscious AI firms. Its Claude models are considered to be strong performers for business use, especially among companies concerned about reliability, regulation and data security. Backing from major technology groups, including Amazon and Google, gives Anthropic access to enormous computing resources and distribution channels. Combined with growing enterprise adoption of Claude, this could make the company particularly attractive to investors seeking exposure to the AI infrastructure boom.

The listings are set to intensify excitement around AI, but they may also fuel concerns that parts of the market may be entering bubble territory. The huge investor appetite expected for these flotations underlines how strongly AI enthusiasm is creating mega valuations across the US technology sector. However, much of their explosive growth has happened away from public markets. By the time these firms eventually float, a large share of the value creation has often already been captured by early private investors, leaving retail investors at risk of jumping in after much of the lift-off has already occurred.

There are clear echoes of the dot.com era, when soaring optimism around the internet pushed technology stocks to dizzying heights before confidence collapsed as funding conditions tightened. Some of those parallels can’t be ignored today as AI excitement has propelled Wall Street to record highs. However, today’s AI leaders are generally stronger businesses than many of the speculative companies that dominated the dot.com boom. Firms such as Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI are building ecosystems around AI, data infrastructure and compute power which could shape the global economy for decades.

However, high-profile IPOs can still become turning points for market sentiment if valuations appear too detached from fundamentals. Any disappointment could trigger a wider reassessment across tech stocks, which have soared in value. But while some companies may not survive the hype cycle, others could ultimately justify today’s lofty valuations, just as Amazon did after surviving the dot.com crash. The rules of the AI race are evolving so quickly that some of tomorrow’s winners may still be under the radar. That’s why investors need to remain selective, diversified and realistic about risk.”

“Under 65s might be tempted to pile their full £20,000 ISA allowance into the cash version while stocks last, but it’s worth considering if a Stocks and Shares ISA could be a better home for money that you won’t need in the next five years or more. We already had sticky inflation before the Iran conflict, and further surges are expected as the full impact of supply chain disruption and energy shocks filters through.

“While it’s important to have an emergency cash buffer at hand and to keep anything you’re likely to need soon in cash, there’s a significant risk inflation will eat into your interest returns on anything held in cash for the long term. History shows that investing in the stock market beats cash and inflation over the long term, so it could be worth investing money you don’t need to call on for five years or more to give your wealth the best chance to grow.

“There was a surge in money leaving interest-bearing accounts (£13.1 billion), but rather than money being spent and leaving the system, this will largely be explained by the flight into Cash ISAs. There was also a slight increase in money added into accounts that pay no interest, which could be a symptom of the ongoing global uncertainty and worries over cost of living rises to come.”

Source: AJ Bell analysis of Bank of England data. Monthly changes of MFIs’ sterling Cash ISA deposits from households.

“But there is a glimmer of hope, as April’s approval figures saw another increase to 65,900, above both the 64,000 seen in March and the six-month average of 63,100. This increase in future lending prospects will be down buyers looking to lock in deals as mortgage costs rise. April saw the effective rate on new lending start to creep up, to 4.08% from 4.03% in March.”

We look forward to welcoming you back next month.

The Pensions Commission’s recent interim report on the state of retirement saving in the UK identifies Generation X as one of the most at-risk cohorts. This reflects their timing: many entered the workforce as defined benefit pensions were disappearing, with fewer employers offering workplace schemes, and before automatic enrolment helped normalise consistent saving.

Where Baby Boomers largely benefited from both generous pension, Generation X faces a far more fragmented picture - one that appears to tilt towards property rather than liquid, tax-efficient investments.

A Rathbones survey of 3,092 UK adults - including 1,025 Gen Xers and 1,050 Baby Boomers - shows that while Gen Xers are more likely to have pensions - excluding final salary schemes - they are almost twice as likely to own a buy-to-let property (17% vs 9% for Baby Boomers).

However, they are less likely to hold tax-efficient investments such as ISAs (66% vs 78%) or other investment accounts (45% vs 52%).

Rebecca Williams, Financial Planning Divisional Lead at Rathbones, says: “Many Gen Xers are sleepwalking into retirement with far less financial security than their parents. They came of age as defined benefit pensions were disappearing and have since faced years of stagnant wage growth and repeated financial shocks, making it harder to build robust, long-term savings.

“This cohort also represents a large part of the ‘sandwich generation’, juggling day-to-day costs while supporting both ageing parents and children. As a result, boosting retirement savings can be difficult amid ongoing financial pressures.

“It’s perhaps no surprise that property - particularly buy-to-let - has been seen as an alternative route to funding retirement. But relying on property as a pension can leave retirees overly exposed to a single, illiquid asset at a time when flexibility is most needed.”

Rathbones’ “Don’t Bet the House” research suggests the conditions that drove strong property returns in previous decades have already shifted. Between 1980 and 2016, UK house prices rose by around 6.7% a year (8.5% in London), comfortably outpacing inflation. Crucially, today’s investors are unlikely to benefit from the same tailwinds. Since 2016, UK house prices have risen by just 3.7% annually - barely keeping pace with inflation - while London property has underperformed, rising by just 1.3% a year (to start of 2025).

Over the same period, stock markets have delivered significantly stronger returns: £100 invested in London property in 2016 would today be worth around £111, compared with £174 if invested in equities.

Isabella Galliers-Pratt, Senior Investment Director at Rathbones says: “The conditions that fuelled the property boom have long since changed. Property is less flexible than pensions or investments, and rental income can be less predictable—particularly as higher interest rates, tax changes and rental reforms have squeezed returns and added complexity for landlords. The idea that property is always a ‘safe bet’ no longer holds true in many parts of the country.

“By contrast, pensions benefit from upfront tax relief, tax-efficient growth and access to diversified investments, making them a more structured and effective way to build long-term retirement income. A more resilient approach typically involves balancing different asset classes, ensuring pensions, investments and property work together to meet income needs and align with personal risk tolerance.”

Since the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) took over regulation of the sector from the Claims Management Regulator (CMR) in April 2019, the number firms operating in this part of the market has fallen for every single one of the past seven years.

The number of firms authorised to provide claims management services in April 2026 is now just 483, nearly halving from 942 when the FCA started to regulate the market.

There was a particularly notable drop of 24% between April 2020 (923) and April 2021 (704). This is likely to have been a consequence of the new FCA authorisation, rules and fees regime and claims management companies (CMCs) pre-empting the FCAs later introduction of fee caps.

FOI made by Broadstone: the number of firms authorised to provide regulated claims management services since the FCA took over from the CMR on 1 April 2019.

The FOI was made by Broadstone after the FCA announced a review into the claims management sector in May 20261. The regulator said that the probe was launched “following concerns that consumers are being failed by some CMCs and law firms.”

Phil Smith, Head of Redress at Broadstone, commented: “The sharp decline in the number of authorised claims management firms since the FCA took over regulation reflects a market that has come under far greater scrutiny and regulatory pressure in recent years. Higher standards around governance, conduct and consumer outcomes have undoubtedly raised the bar for firms operating in the sector.

“While increased oversight has helped drive out some poor practices, the FCA’s decision to launch a fresh review highlights that concerns around consumer harm and poor behaviour have not gone away entirely. This has been reflected in the multiple warnings issued around the motor finance compensation scheme.

“The challenge for the regulator will be ensuring consumers remain properly protected without reducing competition and access to redress services too far. Firms operating in this market will also need to demonstrate robust controls, transparency and clear value to consumers if they are to remain sustainable under the FCA’s more intensive regulatory framework.

“From a consumer point of view, people should fully understand what they are signing up to, what fees may apply and whether free-to-access routes such as the Financial Ombudsman Service are available before entering into agreements.”

The housebuilding sector has a softer market signal to digest this morning, with Nationwide house price growth slowing to 1.7% in May and prices falling 0.6% month-on-month, the first monthly decline so far this year. The pressure is coming from a familiar place: higher energy prices and market interest rates have knocked confidence and cooled buyer demand, which matters for a sector still trying to rebuild momentum after a tough few years. But this does not look like a broken buyer backdrop just yet, with solid household finances, savings buffers and improving affordability suggesting weakness could prove temporary if energy prices settle and geopolitical tensions ease.

Oil has found its way back onto the worry list, as hopes for a cleaner US-Iran breakthrough run into fresh uncertainty. The market had started to price in some relief from a possible ceasefire extension and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, but the risk premium has not disappeared, especially with the route still central to global energy flows. For equity markets, that keeps oil in an awkward spot: high enough to feed inflation and rate worries, but volatile enough to make any improvement in sentiment look fragile.

Earnings season is winding down, but there are still a few important names for investors to watch this week. BATS is unlikely to deliver major surprises after reiterating guidance last month. But the focus will be on whether full-year targets still look achievable given pressure on duty-free sales, tobacco volumes and consumer demand - with pricing, New Category sales and second-half profit delivery shouldering the responsibility for meeting guidance. Broadcom is the bigger growth story, with AI demand expected to drive another set of punchy numbers, but expectations are already high, so investors will be looking beyond any headline beat to the order book, future AI guidance, and whether margins can hold up as custom chips and networking become an even bigger part of the mix.

The Pension Commission’s Interim Report found that the UK has one of the lowest gross national savings levels (as % of GDP) against comparative economies, with around 15 million people currently under saving for retirement. This suggests that many savers share the Commission’s concerns around the scale of the retirement savings challenge facing the UK, indicating there would be broad public support for measures aimed at improving retirement outcomes.

TPT’s findings should therefore give policymakers confidence to pursue bold reforms to improve retirement adequacy.

Ruari Grant, Head of Policy & External Affairs at TPT Retirement Solutions, said: “Our research shows that the public agrees with the experts. Last week the Commission highlighted the scale of the under-saving problem, and while we might often imagine people are unaware of this, that is not the case, meaning the Commission has a clear mandate to pursue meaningful reforms.

“Automatic enrolment has created strong foundations for retirement saving in the UK, but at current contribution levels many savers will still face inadequate outcomes in retirement. The focus should now turn to ensuring the pensions system delivers the retirement people expect and deserve.”

TPT also welcomed the Commission’s focus on decumulation. Improving retirement outcomes is not only about increasing contributions, but also about ensuring that the system people are saving into will deliver an adequate retirement.

TPT has previously found that nearly 70% of DC savers* would be interested in a solution that provides a sustainable inflation-linked income in retirement. With only a fifth (22%) of savers say they are willing to pay for financial advice, effective frameworks at the point of retirement are essential to improving outcomes.

Grant added: “Good retirement outcomes do not simply depend on how much people save during their working lives. Savers also need straightforward, reliable ways to access and use their pension savings in retirement, without having to navigate unnecessary complexity or make difficult financial decisions alone.

“The debate has moved beyond encouraging people to save. The challenge now is ensuring the system people are saving into is capable of delivering a lasting retirement income.”

What all that actually means is anybody’s guess, but oil traders are taking an optimistic view that the end could be in sight for disruption in the region, and Brent Crude oil prices have taken another step down to under $92 per barrel, around 20% off the peaks seen earlier in the month.

US stock futures have moved tentatively upwards after both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ touched new high-water marks on Thursday. Softer than expected core inflation (PCE) data for April (0.24% month-on-month) and an encouraging 0.11% in real personal consumption helped add a touch of confidence to market expectations that US base rates will remain stable for the rest of the year. According to CME’s FedWatch, the probability of a quarter-point rise fell from 38.3% to 37.1%.

But a quarter point here or there is likely to make little difference to Dell whose shares are basking in the glow of a set of forecast-crushing first quarter earnings, as the company’s ramp of its AI server business accelerates. AI server revenue growth of 757% helped underlying earnings per share more than triple to $4.86, racing past forecasts of $2.96. A 19% raise in full-year revenue guidance to around $167bn and $51.3bn backlog for AI servers suggests this is more than just a flash in the pan. Investors are rushing to get on board the AI super cycle train, pushing the shares up 39% in after-hours trading.

AI infrastructure companies have been a core driver of an incredible first-quarter earnings season for US stocks and can take much of the credit for the strong performance of the leading indices. With forward earnings multiples of the tech-led NASDAQ composite barely above the 10-year average, however, it feels like the bulls could still have further to run yet.“

However, complex risks exist along the value chain, which affect the bankability of CCS projects, and have slowed investment in the technology.

Insurance could play a critical role in bringing more CCS projects to market. Insurance products that work across the value chain and fill current coverage gaps can make investments in the technology more viable, as they open up financing options for developers.

Natural resources companies looking to develop CCS projects must understand the regulatory landscape as it stands and how the right insurance strategy can help them unlock protection for their carbon credits.

“There is a clear correlation globally between territories that have implemented clear CCS policies and pace of CCS development in these areas. The market demand for CCS is only there when legislation and regulatory policies are implemented by government. If the cost of CCS exceeds the tax savings/carbon credit value, or if the carbon credits are lost due to leakage or loss, then the project value proposition no longer stands up,” says Marie Reiter, Global Head of Broking Strategy, Willis Natural Resources.

No standard regulatory framework for CCS exists – instead, there is a patchwork of regulation across different geographies, which can directly impact the viability of a CCS project. But inconsistent or incomplete regulation across capture, transport, storage, and cross border movement directly amplifies the financial, operational, legal, and strategic risks that natural resources companies face when deciding whether to develop CCS projects. These elevated risks translate into slower adoption, deferred investment decisions, and difficulty securing financing.

There is no one-size-fits-all approach to CCS regulation. As government involvement in CCS projects varies from country to country, so too do their regulatory frameworks. Jurisdictions with minimal government control, including Norway and the Netherlands, tend to rely on a combination of ‘carrots’ and ‘sticks’ to drive investment in the technology.

Clear and appropriate regulations not only reduce risk for natural resources companies, making CCS deployment financially viable, they are also strategically aligned with national decarbonization goals.

CCS development hotspots

The analysis of more than 670 data centre projects under construction or planned across the US found 320 facilities located in states classified as being at high risk of tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds.

Existing data centres in high-risk states for SCS are valued at almost $20bn, the study found, suggesting that future AI infrastructure in storm-exposed regions could be nearly 40 times the value of existing facilities.

SCS has become a major driver of insured losses. Last year, SCS events generated $52bn in insured losses in the US – making it the costliest region and peril globally. Swiss Re reports insured losses from such storms have grown by roughly 8% a year since 2008.

The findings underline the scale of investment flowing into states at risk of natural catastrophes as development of new hyperscale facilities shifts to southern regions where land and power are more favourable.

Martin Burke, MS Amlin’s Chief Underwriting Officer, said: “These numbers highlight both the opportunity and the risk. Hundreds of billions of dollars of new digital infrastructure are being directed towards regions at higher risk of potentially destructive severe convective storms. When assets of this scale cluster in hazard prone regions, the potential loss severity from a single storm event can rise very quickly. This is a growth opportunity for the specialty insurance market, but the risks must be properly managed and understood.”

Data centres are typically insured through multiple business lines including property, cyber and credit and political risk. Without careful oversight, insurers can unknowingly accumulate exposure to the same facility across multiple policies.

To address the risk, MS Amlin has developed a proprietary aggregation monitoring database to track data centre exposures across its underwriting portfolios.

Burke added: “As AI investment accelerates, insurers must adopt more advanced ways to manage aggregation risk. If the industry is slow to address this challenge, it could restrict the deployment of capital and roll out of AI infrastructure.

“Our proprietary database of hundreds of US data centre projects lets us capture the risk not just from tightly clustered facilities but also from supporting infrastructure like power generation. This provides a far more accurate picture of overall exposure.

“This visibility allows us to deploy capacity responsibly to support the sector’s growth while maintaining underwriting discipline. The ability to monitor aggregation risk is becoming increasingly important as this class continues to grow.”

Control over the Strait of Iran appears to be at the centre of the tensions. Iran has now wielded such power over the key waterway that it may not want to give up control, which the US is deeming unacceptable. The Trump administration has placed sanctions on the newly formed Persian Gulf Strait Authority, which is attempting to impose a new maritime regime in the waters. It won’t let ships pass without permission, but if ships deal with the Iranians they could be breaching these new sanctions. So, another impasse has developed and, if it isn’t fully resolved, could remain a source of friction and trigger supply chain snarl ups in the future. With elevated energy prices on the move higher again, tensions are already fanning the fires of inflation. They are also set to weigh heavily on consumer demand, as household bills rise and shoppers tighten their belts across the world.

But the bigger tide washing over global markets remains the demand for AI, which continues to push up valuations as rapid earnings growth develops. Goldman Sachs’ estimates that Spring profits will keep powering the S&P 500 higher, after an exceptionally robust first quarter. Demand right now for the technology to build out the backbone for AI advances seems insatiable, but it’s still unclear how long this appetite will remain voracious and when companies will have had their fill of technological spend.

For now, chipmakers are filling their boots with orders, and it’s sending valuations sky high. Driven by the huge demand for chips, South Korean chipmaker SK Hynix also joined the trillion-dollar club on Wednesday, a day after Micron Technology became a member. The sharp surge in their valuations is likely to set off alarm bells, but for now there is an expectation of further earnings growth ahead.”

The first part of the exercise looked at which qualifying countries have seen the sharpest increase in 10-year government bond yields over the past year. On this measure, South Korea (+136bp), Colombia (+124bp), Japan (+110bp) and the Czech Republic (+79bp) came out on top. England, by contrast, ranked lower down the table, suggesting that despite perennial optimism among supporters, gilt market moves alone are not enough to carry the team to glory.

The second measure focused on the highest current 10-year government bond yields among qualified nations. On that basis, Brazil (14.1%) and Colombia (13.5%) sit near the top of the field, alongside other high-yielding emerging markets including Argentina (9.4%) and Mexico (9.2%). Taken together, the two approaches produce a shortlist of likely contenders, with Colombia appearing in both camps and Japan and Brazil emerging as particularly compelling candidates.

Based on the overlap between the two data sets, Rathbones’ notional semi-final line-up features South Korea, Colombia, Japan and Brazil, with Japan narrowly preferred to Argentina on the balance of the analysis. Applying a final active-management overlay, the team’s forecast points to Japan meeting Brazil in the final

Bryn Jones, Head of Fixed Income at Rathbones Asset Management, says: “We wanted to take a familiar bond market framework and apply it to something far less conventional. Looking at both the level of 10-year yields and the scale of the move over the past 12 months gave us a playful way to compare teams heading into the tournament. On our numbers, Japan and Brazil stand out, while Colombia appears consistently strong across both measures. Sadly, England are ranked 7th from our analysis (+46bp and 5.1% across both measures) and so have no chance of winning in our version of the tournament.”

Lewis Elliot, analyst at Rathbones Asset Management, adds: “England supporters may be disappointed that gilts do not point to a home victory, but the broader result is more interesting. Colombia scores well whichever way we cut the data, Japan shows strong recent momentum, and Brazil combines high yields with the pedigree you would expect from one of football’s most successful nations. That left us with a Japan versus Brazil final.”

As with any investment model, there are caveats. Some nations were excluded because comparable 10-year bond data was not available. Jones continues with an example: “Scotland do not have any government bonds at this time so can’t compete in this world cup. However, with Scottish government bonds, known as kilts, expected to come to the market in 2026/27, maybe by the next tournament Scotland will be a contender.”

Although this is not intended as a serious forecasting tool, it offers a way to show how market indicators can be interpreted, compared and debated — even when the subject is football rather than fixed income.

70% agreed ‘risks arising from the use of AI are among the greatest risks facing my sector over the next five years’.75% agreed ‘the risks posed by AI to my sector have increased substantially since generative AI technologies have become widely available'.The top three risks highlighted were cyber threats, misleading outputs, and knowledge gaps.

Generative AI has fundamentally changed the risk landscape not only because it can ‘hallucinate’, or present false or misleading information that appears authoritative. It also makes AI widely accessible, persuasive, easy to use and embedded in every day financial workflows. As firms increasingly build AI into tools and infrastructure, many of the most complex risks are ecosystem risks. Decisions that appear sensible for individual firms can create hidden dependencies and shared points of failure across the financial system.

The report’s AI risk framework identifies nine risks which are grouped into three broad categories: ‘outcomes’, ‘operating environment’ and ‘system’. These provide a useful way to trace how AI risk moves through the financial services ecosystem: from the outcomes experienced by customers and society, to the environment in which firms deploy AI, to the system-level dynamics through which risks can scale and spread.

The framework treats AI risks as trade-offs, rather than standalone downsides. Often, the risks are the direct counterpart of AI’s benefits – sharper prediction, deeper personalisation, greater scale and complexity, and more autonomous decision-making. Although risks cannot be eliminated altogether, the framework outlines how many can be moderated through better risk management, governance, and regulation.

Keyur Patel, LFBF Research Associate and report author, said: “The same characteristics that make AI useful in financial services also create many of the risks that make it so difficult to govern. The hard question, then, is not just whether these risks can be mitigated, but how much risk we are willing to live with in exchange for the benefits. That is why a recurring theme in this report is ‘uncomfortable tensions’: the same machinery can widen inclusion and sharpen exclusion; ‘human in the loop’ is not the same as human control; and concentration is baked into how AI systems are built. Generative AI gives these tensions new force. It lowers barriers to use, makes AI feel relatable and trustworthy, and is increasingly embedded in how financial institutions think and work. That matters because AI outputs can be useful, confident and wrong at the same time – and ‘mostly right’ can be dangerous.”

Paul Sweeting FIA C.Act, IFoA President, said: “AI is a defining force of our time. The IFoA’s Artificial Intelligence and Emerging Technologies Practice Board is exploring how transformative technologies are reshaping actuarial practice and influencing broader societal systems. It is also exploring what we need to do to seize the opportunities and manage the risks associated with AI-adoption. With our unique combination of technical skill, communication and professional oversight, actuaries must play a key role making sure that AI is working as it should.”

It’s potentially easier to leave a war-torn country with Bitcoin than gold (though possibly harder to pay for things along the way), and it has value by enforced scarcity. In a high inflation world, for example, where fiat currency is printed at volume and ceases to have scarcity value, this could be a major advantage of Bitcoin.

That might still be true. But it’s not yet what’s happening.

Firstly, some context. Bitcoin has done extraordinarily well over the last few years, so much so that even with the recent plunge it has still wildly outperformed other major assets

So far so good, but it’s harder to see the interactions. We therefore also show rolling 12m correlations

Aficionados could argue in 2022-2024 that Bitcoin was starting to behave more like gold. Certainly the correlations would have backed that up; but the correlation between gold and equity was also higher. In the last year or so, as gold has risen, Bitcoin has moved far more in line with equity than with gold.

This seems pretty conclusive, but it is only one view. Perhaps inflation paints a different picture. To test, we look at the same rolling 12 correlations with month-on-month CPI. Again, Bitcoin is broadly only correlated to inflation when equities are too.

So is there still a case? Well, it’s worth noting that gold doesn’t seem to be an inflationary asset on this lens either. While Bitcoin is negatively correlated with CPI (-18%), so is gold (-12%). The noise month on month can hide a longer-term economic picture. And that’s tricky for Bitcoin as, even though it has a decent length history by this point, there’s a solid case that it’s a different asset now, with ETFs and institutional money, than it was in the early years. In that vein, it might not be digital gold yet, and may still be seen as a risk-on asset, but that doesn’t mean it won’t ever be digital gold, especially if inflation gets high enough.

For right now though, the digital gold argument doesn’t seem to hold up to reality.

BP shares have continued their descent, as the lower oil prices collide with the shock ousting of the chair, Albert Manifold. He was removed for conduct issues, deemed to be unacceptable. The stock fell 5% on Tuesday and continues to stay under pressure. It's like a revolving door at the energy giant - with Manifold only in the position for less than a year, and an interim chair, independent director Ian Tyler, now taking his seat. Given that Manifold was brought in to oversee the refocus on oil and gas, there will be concern that this policy direction will be disrupted.

US indices are largely shrugging off the shadow of conflict in the Middle East, with the Nasdaq powering higher as enthusiasm around artificial intelligence eclipses concerns about rising geopolitical risk. Despite fears that the war is triggering fresh inflationary pressures, appetite for big tech has remained remarkably resilient. Instead, investors are doubling down on the view that the AI juggernaut still has much further to run, with chipmakers and cloud computing giants continuing to attract huge flows of capital.

But consumers are counting the cost of the war in Iran as they brace for another sharp rise in household energy bills, with the increase threatening to sap spending power. The rise in the energy price cap in the UK from July is set to weigh on already fragile consumer confidence. Household energy prices will rise by 13% due to soaring wholesale costs, a highly unwelcome change, just as bills had been reducing. Regulator Ofgem says a household using a typical amount of gas and electricity will pay £221 more a year, taking the annual bill to £1,862. The increase is likely to deepen pressure on household finances just as many consumers had started to feel some relief from the cost-of-living squeeze. Higher energy costs are expected to leave households with less money to spend on everything from eating out and holidays to wardrobe upgrades, raising fresh concerns for retailers, hospitality businesses and the wider services sector, which relies heavily on discretionary spending.

Businesses have also turned ultra-cautious, with energy prices already painful and other costs looking set to ramp up through supply chains. Many firms are in wait-and-see mode, pausing expansion plans in the pipeline. The Barclays Business Prosperity Index shows four-fifths of businesses in the UK have experienced a negative impact from the Middle East conflict and are mothballing investment. More than two-thirds (64%) said energy and fuel costs were impacting their business. Over a third have been hit by higher shipping and logistics costs. Firms are battening down the hatches and waiting for the storm to pass. This will act as a drag on growth, and is likely to keep unemployment elevated. Unfortunately, energy costs aren’t likely to dip significantly any time soon, even if there is an imminent deal between the US and Iran, given that supply chain issues are set to persist and it’ll take months, if not years, to repair damaged infrastructure in the Gulf region. However, a resolution would help confidence, and certainly assuage fears of a longer energy crunch.’’

"Micron surged 20% and joined the trillion-dollar club, largely on the back of a questionable research report from UBS. Its tech analyst has suddenly found a magic formula to justify a price target 60% higher than rivals at other banks had last week, suggesting that memory for AI is no longer a cyclical business. It may as well have been titled: “It’s different this time.” But the fact that it added $200bn to the value of the company should concern investors about a potential bubble in memory stocks, rather than have them partying like it’s 1999.

"Looking ahead to today’s US open, oil remains the swing factor. Crude is down 2.5% overnight as markets wait for progress on US - Iran talks.

"BP has bigger problems than a weak oil price however, after abruptly ousting chairman Albert Manifold over “serious concerns” around governance, oversight and conduct, sending shares sharply lower yesterday. After another leadership shock at one of Britain’s most important companies, the question today is whether BP is becoming increasingly ungovernable.

"With the S&P chasing a ninth straight weekly gain, AI momentum is in full swing, with favoured retail investor names AMD, Qualcomm, Marvell and SanDisk all posting Goliath gains yesterday.

For those who believe in the old stock market adage, “Sell in May and go away; don’t come back until St Leger’s Day,” there has seldom been a better set-up."

Over the month, the buyout surplus rose by £25 billion, compared with a £10 billion increase on a low-dependency measure. This suggests a shift in market dynamics, with insurer pricing becoming more competitive, driven by excess capacity and increased competition as new entrants and recent ownership changes add momentum to transaction activity.

As funding levels improve, schemes are increasingly well positioned to pursue endgame opportunities. Confidence in the quality and reliability of member, benefit and scheme data is critical to acting quickly. Poor or incomplete data introduces uncertainty at the point of transaction, leading to higher pricing margins from insurers and superfunds and delays to execution and administration transfer. Many schemes have experienced the impact of poor data through longer timelines and higher costs, and it continues to act as a barrier to accessing surplus opportunities.

AI is emerging as part of the solution, helping schemes move from fragmented records to trusted, decision-ready data at scale, supported by a clear audit trail. This can accelerate remediation and enable schemes to act more quickly when strategic opportunities arise.

Saye Mkangama, pensions partner at PwC, said: “It’s pleasing to see the continued strength across most UK DB pension schemes. This means that many schemes can focus on choosing the most attractive choice from the options available. Whether a scheme can move quickly and with conviction once they have made this choice is determined by the quality and accessibility of its data. Trustees, sponsors and insurers need confidence that member data and benefit records are complete, consistent and ready for transaction.

“For many schemes, data remains a challenge. Market solutions, including those using AI, continue to develop and therefore trustees and sponsors should seek out the right solution for their situation.”

Katie Lightstone, employer covenant & restructuring partner at PwC, added: “As schemes increasingly look to technology, including AI, to support administration, governance and member engagement, The Pensions Regulator’s (TPR) new guidance sends a clear message: AI is not a future issue for pension schemes; it’s already here. The guidance supports innovation, while making clear that trustees remain accountable for outcomes and member protection.

“TPR is also clear that as AI adoption grows, strong governance, high-quality data and effective oversight of third-party providers will become increasingly important. For trustees, this places AI firmly within operational resilience and risk management. The focus on AI-driven scams and cyber risk is especially timely. As schemes use more AI tools, innovation will need to be matched by robust controls, testing and ongoing monitoring.”

The PwC Low Dependency Index, Buyout Index and Superfund Index figures are as follows:

While the regulatory details have been widely discussed elsewhere, this article focuses on what really matters for investors in ABS, the opportunity these reforms create, and how insurers and other institutional investors can position themselves ahead of time.

One subset of the ABS universe which insurers do invest in is “Simple, Transparent and Standardised” (STS) ABS. These assets have lower capital charges compared to “non-STS” ABS which makes them attractive within an insurer’s portfolio.

Put simply, STS ABS are asset-backed securities that follow EU rules to be simple, clear, and predictable. While non-STS ABS don’t follow those rules, they are not necessarily “bad”, they are just less tightly regulated, more complex and/or less transparent.

However, under current regulation, both STS and non-STS ABS have a materially higher capital charge compared to a corporate bond of equivalent credit rating, so often ABS does not make sense from a capital perspective to sit within an insurer’s asset portfolio in any capacity.

Capital charges (standard formula spread) on ABS are expected to be lowered materially due to these updates for both STS and non-STS ABS as shown in the chart below.

Source: European Commission (19 July 2025) Draft Delegated Regulation amending Delegated Regulation (EU) 2015/35 on Solvency II (Ref. Ares(2025)5843909 - 17/07/2025), European Commission (16 November 2024) Delegated Regulation (EU) 2015/35 of 10 October 2014 supplementing Directive 2009/138/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council on the taking-up and pursuit of the business of Insurance and Reinsurance (Solvency II) (Document 02015R0035-20241114).

The capital charge on senior STS ABS will fall below, or be comparable to, an equivalent corporate bond. Meanwhile, the capital charges on non-senior ABS will be risk-based. Hence, ABS further down the credit rating spectrum will still attract a higher capital charge. The chart below shows the difference between ABS and equivalent corporate bond capital charges following the proposed changes.

Source: European Commission (19 July 2025) Draft Delegated Regulation amending Delegated Regulation (EU) 2015/35 on Solvency II (Ref. Ares(2025)5843909 - 17/07/2025), European Commission (16 November 2024) Delegated Regulation (EU) 2015/35 of 10 October 2014 supplementing Directive 2009/138/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council on the taking-up and pursuit of the business of Insurance and Reinsurance (Solvency II) (Document 02015R0035-20241114).

For simplicity, the analysis is restricted to senior STS ABS. We assume that both the ABS and corporate bond allocations have an average credit rating of A and an average duration of ~3 years. Keeping these parameters consistent allows us to isolate the impact of the proposed capital charge changes and highlight their potential effect on portfolio efficiency.

Naturally, the extent of any improvement in risk adjusted return on capital will depend on an individual insurer’s specific risk profile, including factors such as duration, credit quality, and portfolio composition, which are likely to be more complex than those captured in this illustrative example. With more detailed analysis, there may be further opportunities to enhance risk adjusted returns by incorporating ABS under the proposed revised capital framework.

These changes clearly open capital efficient opportunities in the ABS market for European insurers.

Currently, only a small number of asset managers are building ABS portfolios for insurers, and an even smaller subset offer pooled fund structures. Most of these portfolios focus on STS ABS; however, we do not believe insurers need to restrict themselves solely to the STS universe. With the forthcoming capital charge reforms, non-STS ABS such as CLOs are becoming significantly more attractive. These assets can be blended with STS ABS to create a capital efficient portfolio with compelling risk and return characteristics.

As a result, insurers should see a growing range of solutions designed to provide capital-optimised access to ABS. This expansion of the manager universe makes careful manager selection critical, particularly in identifying those with deep, demonstrable expertise in the asset class.

While ABS benefits from structural protections and diversified collateral pools that help reduce idiosyncratic credit risk, these features place even greater emphasis on choosing the right manager. Ultimately, it is a complex and at times opaque asset class so you want your manager to have the ability and experience to navigate the complexity.

If you are considering adding ABS to your portfolio, please contact your Barnett Waddingham investment consultant to discuss your options.

Emma Gourdie, Investment Consultant, co-authored this blog.

Chintan Gandhi, partner and head of Collective DC at Aon, said: “Aon’s research has shown that CDC pensions, for the same contribution level, could on average deliver around 30 percent better outcomes than a traditional defined contribution scheme lifestyling into an annuity at retirement – while also providing income levels at retirement that are smoother between generations of retirees. Whole-life CDC pensions provide a powerful tool to attract, reward, retain and retire employees on time, as well as strengthening organisations’ employee value proposition in competitive labour markets. We believe that CDC will revolutionise pensions in the UK, creating value for both employees and employers.”

Read the full report CDC – Everything you need to know in 2026 here

The limited nature of the military action, targeting missile launch sites and mine-laying boats, may help assuage worries the move could re-ignite hostilities. For now, a ceasefire remains in place, and although it’s clearly fragile, even before these strikes both sides made it clear a deal wasn’t imminent.

So, given the fresh uncertainty, oil prices have headed higher again after a sharp fall over the weekend. Brent crude, the benchmark, is back trading above $98 a barrel as speculation fills the diplomatic void. Even if Iran and the US can get back to the table quickly and negotiate a longer-term deal, it’ll take many months to get supplies flowing freely again from the region, and output will be constrained by the damage to energy facilities.

Already, the inflationary effect of the war is showing up on the shelves here. UK shop price inflation increased 1.2% year-on-year last month, up from 1.0% in April, which had been the slowest growth in four months. Prices are rising more quickly than expected, with an expectation of 1.1% for April. But the insidious effects of higher shipping costs are feeding through. Non-food prices rose 0.5% year-on-year, mainly driven by rising costs for furniture and beauty products. The price of other commodities needed for the manufacture and distribution of goods – from energy to plastics – has shot higher and is likely to continue to force retailers to push up prices in months to come, given there’s only so long they can absorb costs. The headline rate would have been higher, but competition in the grocery sector helped drive down food inflation to the lowest level in a year. With such intense rivalry between supermarket chains, it may help keep a lid on higher prices, which are expected to seep in later this year. It also shows why retailers were so incensed by suggestions of voluntary price caps on essential goods, when already margins are so tight.

The warmest May night on record is likely to prompt a fresh wave of purchases to help keep households cool in the heatwave. Fans, paddling pools, blackout blinds and ice cube trays will have been filling up real and virtual baskets and could help boost sales at household goods retailers. It could help boost sales at DIY firm Kingfisher, the owner of B&Q and Screwfix, as customers are likely to have been giving their gardens a spruce up to prepare for the heatwave. Total sales were up 1.4% for the three months to the 30 April, even though a late start to Spring had an impact on demand. So, there may be hopes a renewed desire for makeovers and summer essentials could keep tills ringing.

The hot bank holiday is likely to have also helped boost the fortunes of bars and pubs with gardens and terraces, as people celebrated hot days off. It also bodes well for staycation bookings. The prospect of higher air fares and disrupted routes is still playing on the minds of holidaymakers, and with Britain basking in the sunshine, it could prompt a raft of bookings for UK destinations this summer.’’

Ben Carey-Evans, Senior Insurance Analyst at GlobalData, explains: “This might be because use cases to date are largely around customer service and chatbots, rather than full-scale implementation. Regulation has not fully caught up yet and there is concern around who is liable for mistakes made by AI.”

A lack of expertise at the company level was the second-highest concern. Interestingly, the poll revealed a higher level of concern that insurers were ready for it than consumers were. Only 5.3% of respondents felt lack of understanding from consumers was the greatest challenge.

Carey-Evans adds: “This is likely because consumers are seeing increased usage of AI across all industries and companies they interact with and are becoming accustomed to it.”

GlobalData’s Job Analytics shows that there were 63,293 active jobs related to AI expertise in insurance in 2025. This is the highest year ever and a 50.9% increase on 2024. This highlights that insurers are trying to address the lack of expertise gap via employment, but AI is growing so quickly it is hard to keep up.

Carey-Evans conlcudes: “There will always be challenges to implement a technology with such high expectations as AI across the value chain. Insurers need to ensure they have the right expertise in place and fully understand the technology. Targeting certain areas at a time, such as customer service, customer acquisition or claims could help make the scale manageable.”

The UK consumer is still looking fragile, even if confidence has ticked up from very low levels. GfK’s Consumer Confidence Index improved from -25 to -23 in May, better than expected, but the details were less comforting, with savings intentions dropping sharply and big-ticket purchase plans weakening again as households continue to feel the pressure from higher living costs. That caution was echoed in April’s retail sales, where volumes fell 1.3%, more than reversing March’s gain, with food the only major category to grow and fuel sales hit particularly hard as higher prices encouraged motorists to cut back on journeys and delay filling up. Add in a larger-than-expected borrowing figure, and the picture is one of weak growth, stretched household budgets and public finances that leave little room for easy fixes.

Gold has slipped out of the spotlight since topping $5,000, with prices settling into a more benign range around $4,500-$4,800 in recent weeks. Conflicting signals around US-Iran peace talks are keeping investors cautious, particularly with Iran’s uranium stockpile still a major sticking point and oil prices sensitive to any shift in tone. That uncertainty would normally support demand for perceived safe havens, but sticky inflation risks and the prospect of interest rates staying higher for longer are keeping the gold trade relatively subdued for now.”

While inheritance tax is often viewed as a tax on the super wealthy, HMRC’s own figures show the burden is gradually spreading more widely. The Office for Budget Responsibility estimates that almost 10% of estates could face inheritance tax liabilities by 2030.

At the same time, the very wealthiest estates still account for the lion’s share of receipts. Just 1% of estates accounted for around 65% of all inheritance tax paid, while only 202 estates were responsible for 11% of the total tax take.

Susannah Streeter, chief investment strategist, Wealth Club: “Inheritance tax has become one of the Treasury’s most effective stealth taxes. Although receipts dipped slightly in April compared with the same month last year, the government’s take from bereaved families remains exceptionally high and is still on course for another record-breaking year.

The government has struggled with inheritance tax reforms with crackdowns on farmers and business owners proving deeply unpopular, while years of frozen allowances mean more ordinary families are quietly being pulled into the inheritance tax net through stealth taxation.

Rising property prices have played a huge role in increasing this stealthy tax take. Many families who would never have considered themselves wealthy now find themselves facing inheritance tax bills simply because the value of the family home has climbed sharply over the years. While the biggest estates still account for the overwhelming majority of inheritance tax paid, the tax base is steadily broadening. The idea that inheritance tax only affects a tiny minority of ultra-wealthy families is becoming increasingly outdated.”

Recent reforms to inheritance tax-efficient assets, including pensions, private company shares and AIM shares, have also created significant uncertainty for investors and business owners. The changes affecting AIM have been particularly unsettling. AIM was designed to help smaller UK companies raise capital by encouraging investors to back higher-risk businesses. Weakening the inheritance tax incentives risks making it harder for those firms to attract long-term investment.

After speculation that inheritance tax relief on AIM shares could be scrapped altogether, the government instead reduced the relief by 50%. While markets welcomed the clarity, renewed suggestions that further changes could still be on the table risk damaging confidence once again.

There is also a danger that the government pushes too far. Inheritance tax is already deeply unpopular, particularly among internationally mobile wealthy individuals. If the UK continues to increase the inheritance tax burden while reducing reliefs, some taxpayers may simply decide to leave the country altogether.

What can families and investors do to reduce inheritance tax exposure?

Despite tighter rules and increased scrutiny from HMRC, there are still several ways families may be able to reduce inheritance tax liabilities, although many require long-term planning and careful advice.

Giving money away early
Gifts made from surplus income remain immediately inheritance tax free, while larger gifts generally fall outside the estate after seven years. However, once assets are gifted they are no longer under the giver’s control.Business

Property Relief and qualifying investments
Certain qualifying investments can become inheritance tax efficient after two years through Business Property Relief, although these investments can carry substantial risk. From 2026, Business Relief assets above the £1 million allowance are expected to face inheritance tax at a reduced rate of 20%.

AIM portfolios and AIM ISAs
ISAs themselves are not exempt from inheritance tax, but qualifying AIM portfolios have historically offered investors a way to reduce inheritance tax exposure after two years. These investments involve significantly higher risk and, from 2026, qualifying AIM investments are expected to face inheritance tax at a reduced rate of 20% rather than being fully exempt.

Reviewing pension strategies
With pensions expected to fall within the inheritance tax net from 2027, retirement and estate planning strategies are becoming increasingly important for many families.

The direction of global bond yields (yields move inversely to price) has tracked energy markets extremely closely and for now we see little reason for that relationship to break down. Swings in oil and gas prices are therefore likely to remain the primary driver of global yields in the near term.

This is reflected in the probabilities we assign to our scenarios. In light of global inflation dynamics, we now place a zero weight on the two most dovish scenarios (“Too cold” and “Just right’). On balance, we still expect the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to keep interest rates on hold - as captured by our “Warming up” scenario - but now see a higher chance of rate hikes (“Too hot”), although our expectations of this outcome are lower compared to the market.

Source, Schroders Global Unconstrained Fixed Income team 20 May 2026, for illustrative purposes only. The “too cold" scenario would see the Federal Reserve (Fed) cutting 4+ times in 2026, 2-3 cuts for “just right", while in “warming up” the Fed is only cutting once or is on hold. Finally, in a “too hot" scenario the Fed is moving back towards hikes in 2026, because inflation is becoming problematic again.

The baton driving growth has now been handed to the business community. The significant improvement in the manufacturing sector is partly linked to the surge in technology investment - linked to the AI revolution – however, we’re seeing this improvement broadening into other sectors. This is not a new theme, but it has gained traction in recent months.

Meanwhile, the real income squeeze due to higher inflation is being partially offset by fiscal stimulus (President Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill”) albeit there’s winners and losers through this and we are starting to see evidence of stress among lower-income households. Taking all this together means that we still see US Treasuries as less attractive compared to peers.

The outcome of May’s Australian Federal Budget (2026-27) helped solidify our conviction for Australian bonds, with overall fiscal policy moving from stimulative to neutral. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has already tightened policy three times and while another hike remains more likely than not, the end of the cycle is now coming into view. That’s always a pivotal moment for bond markets.

Elsewhere, we remain neutral on duration (interest rate risk) in the eurozone. Unless we see a sharp fall in energy prices, we expect to see the European Central Bank (ECB) raise interest rates in June. However, with almost three hikes priced for the rest of the year we see little asymmetry on offer: bonds will rally if energy prices come down, but with a central bank that’s alert to inflation risks, will sell-off more if they don’t.

We also have a neutral view on UK duration, given the market’s high sensitivity to global energy dynamics as well as the rise in political uncertainty in recent weeks. For now we think it prudent to stay on the sidelines and wait for a clearer opportunity to arise.

From an asset allocation perspective, our view is broadly unchanged on the month. We remain cautious on corporate credit due to unappealing valuations, but continue to see opportunities within emerging market debt and peripheral eurozone markets (for example Greece).

Maurice Titley, Commercial Director: Data & Dashboards at Lumera, commented: “The Regulator’s AI plan, and their intention to publish more detailed guidance in 2026, is an important step in setting clear expectations for how AI should be deployed responsibly across the pensions industry.Their approach of engaging with industry is welcome as there are many areas where AI innovation is being considered, not least in response to some of the new demands that will flow from reforms in the Pensions Act, such as assigning members to default retirement pathways. As we enter a new era for the pensions sector in the UK, AI is set to be a critical driver of transformation in how providers achieve greater efficiencies, strengthen governance and improve the member experience. The Regulator is right to point out that AI will bring both opportunities and risks which will require the industry to centralise innovative operating models, human oversight and robust governance to achieve the confidence of trustees. Scalable technology and a clear data strategy will be essential in ensuring that automated decision making is working off accurate records to achieve good outcomes for members. With these data building blocks in base, providers will have the potential to improve administration, standards and outcomes right across the pensions sector, enhancing rather than replacing the expertise that defines the industry.”

TPR clarifies responsible use of AI in workplace pensions

By contrast, among schemes of more than £500 million, there is a finer balance with 54 percent seeking to insure at the earliest opportunity and 46 percent seeking to run on for the long-term or for a shorter period of time.

James Patten, partner in the UK Endgame Strategy team at Aon, said: “After the Pension Regulator’s June 2025 endgame guidance and its recent Annual Funding Statement that encouraged schemes to focus on endgame planning, this survey gives real insight into current market practice on endgame decisions.

“When comparing this survey with last year’s, we see more endgame decisions made, with only 15 percent of respondents describing themselves as ‘undecided or deliberately staying flexible’ compared with 23 percent in 2025. However, with a growing range of endgame options, improvements in insurer pricing, new surplus flexibilities, and an uncertain geopolitical and economic environment, we expect to continue seeing schemes revisiting previous endgame decisions until they are fully committed to delivery. Whatever their choice, it’s vital that they have reviewed the complete range of options and are fully aligned on their objectives - or they could face issues in the future.”

“Buyout and run-on remain the dominant endgame options in the market. The £1bn+ schemes that are running-on are predominantly doing so actively, with a view towards the generation of surplus. However, our survey suggests a split in market practice between sub-£500 million schemes and those that are larger. Among sub-£500 million schemes, insuring at the earliest opportunity is by far the most popular option – possibly supported by the keen insurer pricing seen over the last 12 months. For those above £500 million, there is a much finer balance between insuring at the earliest opportunity and running on beyond this.

“Schemes moving into surplus has inevitably raised new and developing issues. After excluding respondents without a surplus - and who therefore had chosen to have no surplus policy – we found that 28 percent of schemes had some form of agreement on surplus or a formal surplus policy. A further 31 percent intend to consider a surplus policy this year. Not doing so could lead to deferring returning capital to sponsors in a difficult economic environment, or getting to a situation where older generations of members regard themselves as losing out on the opportunities that accessing surplus might offer. It’s clear that it can be beneficial to put a surplus policy in place before a surplus emerges.”

The Aon 2026 Endgame Survey is available by contacting talktous@aon.com

Shares in hotelier Whitbread are also in the red today perhaps catching a cold from the likes of EasyJet who has seen summer bookings suffer, and pub chain Mitchells & Butlers who has seen macroeconomic conditions impact spending in its pubs. For the Harvester owner full-year forecasts still look achievable but a further slowdown in sales growth in the first three weeks of the second half has spooked investors with the shares losing around 8% so far today.

Brent Crude prices showed early signs of a bounce after yesterday’s 6% decline but have now slipped to just under $105 per barrel. That’s been driven by signs of a diplomatic thaw between Washington and Tehran, but we’ve been here before and until traffic through the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal, oil price volatility is likely to remain the norm.

US stock futures are flat, also recovering from declines earlier in the day. All the major indices closed up more than 1% yesterday after three consecutive sessions of losses, helped by easing oil prices and expectations of strong quarterly results from the world’s most valuable company NVIDIA. Both numbers and guidance eclipsed expectations but as is so often the case traders took some profits in after-hours, only to recover in today’s pre-market trading.

Matt Britzman, senior equity analyst, Hargreaves Lansdown:

“The buyback era has arrived at NVIDIA, and it is arriving with an $80bn bang. These were blockbuster results, even by its increasingly absurd standards, with revenue up 85% year-on-year and both revenue and earnings exceeding already high expectations. The guide is just as eye-catching, with the top end pointing to almost 100% revenue growth in the coming quarter, and NVIDIA has a habit of clearing the bar it sets for itself. Cash flow is becoming the real flex here, with nearly $49bn in free cash flow over the quarter and a record $20bn returned to shareholders. And if that’s not enough, by our numbers, free cash flow will push toward $200bn this financial year.

The question from here is not whether demand is strong today, but how long this level of growth can keep outrunning expectations. NVIDIA still looks exceptionally well placed, with its strength stretching beyond chips into networking, software and full data centre systems, which makes it difficult for rivals or in-house alternatives to match at scale. Our view remains that AI infrastructure demand, customer spending plans, and cash generation all support the case for earnings power remaining stronger for longer. NVIDIA might not get the plaudits it deserves in the earnings multiple, but eventually raw earnings power comes to the forefront, and that’s exactly what we’re seeing.”

The figures land as football fever sweeps the nation ahead of England’s squad announcement and the dramatic final weekend of the Premier League season — moments that often inspire fans to dust off their boots, roll back the years and attempt their own back-of-the-net moments.

But while Premier League stars have physios, recovery sessions and ice baths on standby, Britain’s grassroots footballers are more likely to rely on frozen peas, deep heat and a slow hobble into work on Monday morning.

Separate consumer research from MetLife UK also found that almost a quarter (23%) of UK adults have experienced a sporting accident, such as a football injury - showing many players are ending up sidelined long before reaching Wembley-worthy glory.

Among those who had suffered an accident, the average hospital stay lasted four days — although one in five spent even longer stuck on the sidelines.

For those who had experienced - or worried about - an accident, the biggest concern was having to take time off work (23%), while one in five (20%) worried about not being home with their children. Others feared the financial knock-on effects, including unpaid leave (16%), reduced pay (13%) and even the added costs of food, travel and hospital parking — proving that for many Brits, an injury can quickly become an own goal for household finances too.

Phil Jeynes, Head of Individual Protection at MetLife UK, comments: “Football is a huge part of life for many people across the UK, especially during major moments in the sporting calendar when more fans are inspired to get involved themselves. Whether that’s five-a-side with friends, Sunday League matches or a kickabout in the park.

“But while the focus is often on scoring goals and staying active, injuries can have a real impact off the pitch too. Time away from work, unexpected costs and the knock-on effect on family life are concerns many people don’t think about until an accident happens.

“These findings are a reminder that protection isn’t just about the big moments in life - it can also help people feel more prepared for the unexpected challenges that can come from everyday activities and hobbies.”

The publication follows the release of the Pensions Commission’s interim report on 19 May 2026, which has renewed focus on pensions adequacy, financial resilience and the long-term future of automatic enrolment. As policymakers consider how the pensions system can better support those at risk of poorer retirement outcomes, low earners remain central to the debate. This report contributes new evidence to that discussion by modelling how different automatic enrolment reforms could affect a range of persistent low earner groups across the life course.

The From Payslip to Pension series has been funded by The Nuffield Foundation and will run until summer 2026, comprising five individual outputs exploring the experiences and retirement outcomes of low earners.

Read the full report here: From Payslip to Pension: Life Course Impacts on Retirement Saving Among Low Earners series, Modelling of Policy Options for Low Earners

The poll findings suggest that while many businesses recognise individual threats, far fewer are prepared to manage how these risks interact and create potential vulnerabilities – a point particularly pertinent given recent macro-economic volatility. Organisations that have a better understanding of the interconnected nature of risk are likely to gain a competitive advantage.

Key insights include:

Rob Kemp, CEO of Commercial Risk in the UK for Aon said: “The results of this webinar polling and of our recent Global Risk Management Survey underline how overlapping pressures can compound and elevate risks for businesses. Spotting this early gives organisations a clear advantage. By mapping risks effectively and considering how disruptions may interact, businesses will be better positioned to mitigate issues when they arise.

“While market volatility cannot be predicted precisely, having the right systems in place can reduce the impact by shortening the critical window between an event and an organisation’s response.”

Amy Froude, chief commercial officer of Commercial Risk in the UK for Aon said: “With a number of the leading risks identified sitting outside of traditional insurance markets, the polling results also highlight the need for a greater adoption of analytics tools that can help businesses identify, test and quantify the potential impacts of risk events. Without these capabilities, organisations risk being caught unprepared and unable to respond effectively.

“Recent geopolitical events have highlighted concerns, reinforcing that these threats do not occur in isolation. By recognising the interconnected nature of risks, businesses can better prepare for and respond to future disruptions.

“As the insurability gap for some risks widens, the need for comprehensive risk management tools and analytics platforms is greater than ever. Without them, it becomes far harder for organisations to judge where to retain risk, where to transfer it, and where alternative solutions can deliver the most value. As geopolitical dynamics and cyber capabilities rapidly evolve, preparation for disruptions across business lines is paramount.”

Susannah Streeter, chief investment strategist, Wealth Club: “Despite the fall in inflation in April, the UK still appears stuck in a 1970s-style economic backdrop of energy insecurity, persistent price pressures and growing political intervention in markets. The softer-than-expected inflation reading will come as welcome relief to policymakers and households, but concerns remain that higher energy costs and geopolitical tensions could yet feed through into prices in the months ahead.

The reduction in the energy price cap in April was a key driver behind the slowdown in inflation, while food price pressures also eased. But with the Middle East crisis unresolved and energy markets remaining highly volatile, households and businesses are not out of the woods. Forecourt prices remain elevated, with motor fuels providing the biggest upward contribution to inflation, keeping the headline rate above the Bank of England’s target.

This snapshot shows the UK economy is still wrestling with the repercussions of a prolonged energy shock. There are also signs retailers are finding less room to cushion consumers from rising costs. Clothing prices remained firmer, with fewer discounts offered compared with the same period last year, indicating that businesses facing higher payroll costs, elevated business rates and lingering energy pressures are becoming less willing or able to absorb rising expenses. It’s amid this backdrop that government calls for price controls are straining an already fraught relationship with the supermarket sector. While ministers may be desperate to limit further pressure on households, price caps risk distorting markets and storing up inflationary pressures for later. Like a coiled spring, prices could rebound sharply once restrictions are eventually removed. The easing in food inflation during April also underlines how fiercely competitive the grocery sector already is, leaving little room for retailers to artificially suppress prices further.

Clearly the energy crunch has rattled the UK government, which is already reeling from political infighting prompted by a poor showing in local elections. The determination to keep a lid on prices and limit broader economic fallout is also likely to be behind the decision to loosen strict sanctions on Russian oil refined into diesel and jet fuel. The UK government clearly sees the energy crunch as the bigger foe right now and that outweighs the political optics of softening parts of the sanctions regime. This change will allow refiners in intermediary processing and exporting nations to use Russian crude before selling fuel onto international markets, where UK buyers can then import it under the temporary waiver rules.

This is set to ease pressure on airlines, which until very recently feared jet fuel shortages could disrupt summer schedules. Jet fuel prices monitored by IATA show they fell by 13.72% in the week ending May 15 compared with the previous month’s average. This action could prompt a further modest decline in the coming weeks.

Some sanctions on the transport of Russian liquefied natural gas have also been lifted. But energy markets remain highly strained given the continuing diplomatic impasse over Iran. Crude oil remains above $110 a barrel amid President Trump’s threat to resume strikes unless Tehran agrees to US peace proposals. Until the Strait of Hormuz fully reopens and regional tensions ease, energy markets are likely to remain volatile, keeping governments, businesses and consumers under sustained financial pressure.”

Almost half of those polled (45%) said they generally trust products or services bought through social media. Young drivers may also be at greater risk due to cost of living pressures – with 1 in 7 (15%) saying they find it difficult to fit insurance into their monthly budget.

To avoid being taken for a ride, the FCA is urging young drivers to:

Graeme Reynolds, director of insurance at the FCA said: “Tight budgets make cheap offers tempting – and scammers take advantage of that. Don’t get ghosted by a policy that doesn’t exist. Check the FCA Firm Checker before you buy, because driving uninsured could cost you far more than any premium.”

The FCA is working with social media influencers to warn young drivers about the growing threat of ghost broking.

Of the total £317 billion held by annuity providers in investments in 2024, 63% was held in UK assets, supporting projects that positively impact communities across the country.

The data also shows insurers held £119 billion (38%) in private markets both in the UK and abroad. These investments channelled money into infrastructure, housing, and regeneration projects which offer long-term stability and predictable cashflows to pay pensions whilst supporting economic growth.2

UK investment through the bulk annuity market is expected to remain strong as more companies transfer their defined benefit pension liabilities to insurers. This guarantees members’ pensions while helping companies strengthen their balance sheets for greater financial certainty. In 2024, the number of people with pensions protected in this way grew to nearly 2.3 million, with insurers paying out £10 billion to recipients.

The market supports employers with DB pension schemes of all sizes. In 2024, almost three quarters (72%) of all schemes whose pensions are secured by insurers were under £50 million in size. Of these, 56% were under £10 million in size with an average of just 48 people per scheme.

In contrast, schemes valued at over £1 billion accounted for just 2% of all bulk annuities held by insurers. These have an average of 28,300 people per scheme, and represent 45% of people whose retirement is secured through the market.

Dr Yvonne Braun, Director of Long-Term Savings Policy at the ABI said: “Bulk purchase insurers are a powerful engine of UK growth. Alongside providing millions of pensioners with the security of a guaranteed income for life, paying £10 billion in pensions in 2024, our members invest at scale in key UK growth assets, delivering benefits for the wider economy and society. We will continue to work closely with government to support a strong pipeline of investable opportunities and sustain this positive momentum.”

A single location may sit within a dense network of dependencies — neighbouring businesses, shared buildings, transport infrastructure, utilities and heritage assets. As a result, traditional, isolated risk assessments are increasingly insufficient, and insurers need to adopt location-centric, interconnected approaches to assessing fire and property risk.

A shop fire can expose several key interdependencies that influence the scale of loss:

1. Historic Buildings - Is the affected property part of a heritage streetscape? Fires in older buildings can spread quickly due to timber structures, limited compartmentation, and complex layouts, amplifying both safety risks and economic impacts.

2. Transport Infrastructure - The temporary shutdown of a train station due to a fire can trigger national-scale disruption. Even a short-term closure affects commuters, tourism, logistics and regional commerce.

3. Adjacent Businesses and Shared Structures - Modern urban centres often have tightly packed commercial units, shared roofs and interconnected utilities. This increases the probability that a fire spreads or requires full-building evacuations, business interruption claims and structural assessments long after the fire is contained.

4. Emergency Access and Urban Density - The ability of fire services to gain access in congested city centres is a critical variable that shifts the risk profile dramatically, especially where multiple ignition hazards exist.

Improper charging practices, such as the use of mismatched cables or overnight charging, can be a common cause of battery failure and thermal runaway. Furthermore, retailers often store large quantities of vape devices or batteries together. A failure in one unit can ignite others, rapidly intensifying an incident.

The result is a rising fire threat not just to the premises selling vape products, but to the broader built environment surrounding them.

Disposal of vape products presents another new and growing hazard. The sustainable waste management company, Biffa’s “zombie batteries” warning, reinforces the scale of the issue, with batteries responsible for over 1,200 fires in the waste sector from 2023 to 2024[ii]. This equates to more than three fires every day. Nearly half were caused by lithium-ion batteries, with vapes the biggest culprit.

Geospatial data visualisation enables insurance providers to visualise interdependencies as part of a swift quote process. They can understand exactly what surrounds any given location — down to neighbouring businesses, traffic density, footfall, historic sites, public infrastructure and utilities.

Insurance providers can also identify compound risks, pinpointing properties where certain business types intersect with high-value or vulnerable surroundings. They can even calculate how fire might spread from building to building in an urban location. This enables the Estimated Maximum Loss and Potential Maximum Loss can be calculated based on ‘live’ data.

By incorporating high-resolution, up-to-date location intelligence into underwriting, insurance providers can improve risk selection, support more accurate pricing and strengthen risk mitigation strategies across their commercial property portfolios.

For insurance providers, this means embracing data-driven, contextual intelligence as the core of risk assessment. In increasingly interconnected urban environments, understanding where a risk exists is just as important as understanding what the risk is.

The rise in unemployment from 4.9% to 5% adds to mounting evidence that cracks are beginning to widen in the labour market. Vacancies are also continuing their steady descent, falling again to 705,000, the lowest level since early 2021.

There’s another warning sign coming from the employment data, with the early estimate for April showing the number of payrolled employees falling by 210,000 compared with a year earlier, alongside a monthly decline of 100,000. It appears businesses are becoming markedly more defensive as economic uncertainty intensifies.

Wage pressures have eased further, with regular pay growth slowing to 3.4%, down from 3.6% and well below the elevated post-pandemic highs. Ordinarily, private sector wage growth cooling towards 3% would be the kind of mood music likely to prompt expectations of interest rate cuts. But given the discordant notes on inflation right now, pressure is building for rates to stay higher for longer instead. Financial markets are still pricing in three rate hikes by the end of the year, with the possibility of another increase next year.

Wage growth is still only just inching ahead of inflation, and by a meagre amount. This is likely to keep spending subdued, particularly as households brace for more bill increases ahead. This is likely to keep a lid on discretionary purchases, with retailers and hospitality firms particularly vulnerable if consumers continue cutting back on bigger-ticket purchases and prioritising essentials.

The FTSE 100 is poised to open on the front foot in early trade, as hopes remain alive for further talks aimed at resolving the Middle East conflict. President Trump has dialled down the rhetoric, reportedly calling off further strikes on Iran, following pressure from allies in the Gulf and this is leading to hopes that negotiations could resume again. The weaker labour market snapshot had largely been anticipated and is unlikely to prove a significant market mover. Investor sentiment is still likely to be driven by twists and turns in diplomatic efforts to calm tensions and secure a longer-term resolution. Until the Strait of Hormuz is fully reopened, inflation concerns are unlikely to meaningfully subside and are set to keep markets on edge.”

Under the new regime, schemes must ensure members are able to raise data protection complaints directly, that complaints are acknowledged within 30 days, and that they are handled appropriately and without undue delay. *

Lauren Shipman, Trustee Executive, at ZEDRA Inside Pensions said: “For many pension schemes, the work required to comply is relatively modest, typically involving updates to existing complaints procedures, privacy notices and governance documentation. However, there is concern that the changes may have gone under the radar for some schemes amid wider regulatory pressures and competing governance priorities, and that some may need to establish new documented complaints-handling processes. And although modest, this is important governance work that trustees cannot afford to overlook.

“In instances where schemes have outsourced administration to third-party providers it’s important to be satisfied that compliance is being appropriately managed. Ultimately, accountability rests with trustees, and this can create potential governance and oversight risks where responsibilities, procedures and reporting lines have not been clearly reviewed. Trustees should seek confirmation from their administrators, where applicable, on what changes have been made and whether governance arrangements remain compliant. If these issues are not addressed, it could increase the risk of complaints escalating to the Information Commissioner’s Office (ICO), the Pensions Ombudsman, or broader governance scrutiny.”

Shipman added: “If complaints emerge later and trustees cannot evidence proper procedures, it could quickly open a can of worms from a governance and reputational perspective. With that in mind, trustees should now be using the remaining time before the rules take effect to review existing data complaints procedures, ensure member-facing privacy notices and governance documentation are updated where necessary, and confirm responsibilities with third-party administrators and processors.”

Mark Futcher at Barnett Waddingham, part of Howden said: “It's reassuring that the Pension Commission is focused on the right issues - but it now needs to put its foot on the pedal. Too much time has already been spent diagnosing the same problems, while lower earners, part-time workers and the self-employed continue to be left behind by the pensions system. And for everyday workers, our research highlights just how wide the gap between confidence and reality has become. While 65% of employees at medium-sized firms believe they’ll retire comfortably, only 24% have set clear financial goals and 60% don’t know where their pension is or what it holds - a clear sign that too many people are putting their retirement on autopilot and hoping it lands safely. With so much to tackle, there’s a valid concern that not everything can be fixed overnight. Nevertheless, the Commission’s final recommendations in 2027 cannot pull any punches. We can’t keep staring at the same problems year after year - it’s time for decisions that genuinely move the dial on retirement outcomes.”

Andy Briggs, Standard Life CEO, comments: “This report is in line with what we have been highlighting for years. Millions of people are not saving enough for retirement and the UK is edging ever closer to a pensions adequacy crisis. With only one in seven DC savers on track for a decent retirement, by 2040 the majority of DC savers are expected to retire with less than they expect or need. It is hard to see how any independent review could conclude that auto enrolment contributions set at 8 per cent are sufficient. While change cannot happen overnight, we should be setting a clear path towards increasing contribution rates to 12 per cent gradually over time. The report also touches on consolidation. The UK is an outlier among advanced economies in retaining a highly fragmented DC landscape. Consolidation improves member outcomes, and is not just a focus for system efficiency. It is about unlocking capability and larger schemes can invest to support infrastructure projects across the UK, and provide capital to growing companies while still meeting the primary duty to customers. Smaller schemes cannot do this consistently. Change needs to happen with urgency and at a much faster pace going forward. The longer we wait, the harder and more costly this becomes to fix.

Ruari Grant, Head of Policy and External Affairs at TPT Retirement Solutions: This is an important moment for us to digest this key Commission report on adequacy, especially after a period where so much attention has been diverted to structural and investment matters. As the report notes, 40% of workers are under-saving for retirement: this is sobering and I hope it will lead to some bolder decision-making – in AE we have the foundations, but at current thresholds, outcomes will remain inadequate. Let’s not forget, we’ve now been waiting almost a decade for the AE review’s recommendations to be implemented, and trends such as declining home-ownership and under-saving among the self-employed in retirement will only exacerbate the situation.The report’s focus on decumulation is welcome, as adequacy doesn’t simply rely on paying in enough – savers must also be able to access their money in a safe, simple and reliable manner without needing to understand all of the complex factors at play. The debate now has moved on: this is no longer about getting people to save, but ensuring the system they’re saving into will actually deliver a decent retirement. We look forward to engaging further with the Commission, especially with regard to how collective DC may assist with some of its identified structural challenges.

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/britain-is-undersaving-for-retirement-warns-pensions-commission

SPP President, Sophia Singleton, said: “This interim report by the Pensions Commission is a welcome intervention, highlighting many of the most pressing challenges facing the UK pensions system. In particular, the Commission’s report underscores the urgent need to boost savings for groups who are currently underserved including low earners, the self-employed and women. Many of the issues the Commission points to were previously identified in the SPP’s own ‘Saving Retirement’ paper in 2025. With broad consensus on the problems, we must now move from analysis to action. The SPP looks forward to continuing to work with the Commission as they prepare their final report, and with government, to implement the policy changes needed to improve pension outcomes for all.”

Doug Brown, CEO of Insurance, Wealth and Retirement at Aviva, said: “We welcome the Pensions Commission’s findings and its focus on helping more people save for later life. Too many people are still not building enough retirement income - and our research found less than half of mid-retirees feel on track to make their pension last a lifetime. Auto-enrolment has been a real success, but reforms could help people save more and improve retirement outcomes. Setting a long-term roadmap for reform, including gradually increasing contributions, would be a big step towards a pensions system that better reflects how people live and work today.”

“Dan brings extensive experience from senior leadership roles across the pensions industry, particularly in relation to member experience. His background gives him a well-rounded perspective on scheme oversight, member outcomes and trustee decision-making adding further strength to our collective expertise and further enhancing our ability to support clients in an evolving market.”

Dan Whincup added: “Member outcomes have always been central to my approach, with a focus on improving engagement, retirement outcomes and the overall pension experience. So for me, it was important to join an organisation where members genuinely sit at the heart of everything. Zedra stood out in that respect. They also combine the scale, expertise and resources to support schemes of all sizes and needs, with a genuinely personal culture where relationships truly matter. That balance, alongside its award-winning reputation for innovation, made it a strong cultural fit. I’m looking forward to contributing to such a forward-thinking team.”

Dan joins Zedra after spending 11 years as part of the in-house senior leadership team at Coal Pension Trustees, supporting the Trustees of the two of the UK’s largest and most complex schemes - the Mineworkers Pension Scheme and the British Coal Staff Superannuation Scheme. His responsibilities as Chief Pensions Officer included leading strategic funding, investment collaboration, secretariat services, pension administration and member communication. Prior to that he spent 14 years as an actuarial consultant at PwC, Willis Towers Watson and Mercer.

UK pension schemes already invest an estimated £1 trillion in the UK across gilts, equities, credit and alternatives. But further growth-focused investment that works for savers can only happen if the system can deliver more pension-grade opportunities, with clear routes to market and appropriate risk-return prospects.

Drawing on evidence from across the pensions landscape, the report maps the UK pension investment system, evaluates four key public finance institutions — the British Business Bank, the National Wealth Fund, Homes England and Great British Energy — and shares case studies from the private sector showing what successful UK investment can look like in practice.

The report is being published a year on from the signing of the Mansion House Accord, a voluntary commitment by 17 of the UK’s largest pension providers which would increase overall investment in unlisted assets, both in the UK and globally. As part of that Accord, Government committed to help build a pipeline of investable opportunities. This report shows there is more work to do.

Key findings

The system remains fragmented – despite significant policy activity, pension schemes still face a complex landscape with unclear coordination, accountability and engagement routes to investing in UK growth assets.

Public finance institutions are at different stages of readiness – the British Business Bank has made the most tangible progress to date in creating an investable route (including through the British Growth Partnership). While other institutions show willingness, there is more work to do and Pensions UK stands ready to support this.

There are successful Private Finance Initiatives that provide lessons – The report highlights successful case studies which showcase the structures and vehicles that work for pension schemes.

Barriers are practical and solvable – Pensions UK members cite insufficient risk-adjusted returns, a lack of suitable opportunities and policy uncertainty as key barriers. Improved pipeline visibility, risk-sharing, and value-focused regulation can unlock further allocations.

The report is accompanied by a separate call to action for Government, regulators, public finance institutions and the pensions industry. It calls for clearer end-to-end pathways that connect pension capital to investable UK opportunities, supported by coordinated Government action, institutions that can bring scalable vehicles to market, and regulation that enables long-term investment decisions focused on value as well as cost.

Zoe Alexander, Executive Director of Policy and Advocacy at Pensions UK, said: “Pension schemes are already major investors in the UK, supporting economic growth – but more practical, co-ordinated action by Government and agencies is needed to support their efforts to keep scaling those investments. Schemes need a diverse range of investable routes that are consistent with fiduciary duty, and deliver good outcomes for savers.

“A year on from the delivery of the Mansion House Accord, this report sets out the practical steps needed so that public finance institutions, regulators and industry can work together to connect long-term pension capital with a clearer, more investable pipeline of UK opportunities.”

Joe Brace, Member of the Data Council and Operations Director of the Lloyd’s Market Association (LMA), commented: “The delivery of the Treaty extensions to the placing CDR is another big step forward in the market’s progress towards full implementation of the CDR across all placement types. My thanks go to all parties who participated in our consultation, and the Treaty CDR working group, for their input and hard work in delivering this for the market. It is imperative that we as a market buy into the importance of quality data, collected as early as possible in the process. Core principles like the CDR, MRC and alignment with ACORD standards are foundational to the future of insurance as a digitally traded business.”

Kirstin Duffield, Chair of the CDR working groups on behalf of the LMA, and CEO of Morning Data, part of Verisk, said: "We are in the process of incorporating feedback on the Claims CDR, following a market consultation that closed at the beginning of the year. Work is also in flight to extend the placing CDR to cover the Agreement of Delegation for Binders, Lineslips, and Digital Platform contracts. The results of this will be published later this year, and will align closely with the work on the CBAA [Computable Binding Authority Agreement]."

Troy Hughes, Chair of the Ruschlikon Placing Steering Committee and Global Director of eCommerce at Aon, said: "Expanding the CDR to include treaty reinsurance in alignment with the ACORD standard is a significant milestone. As digital trading of placing information accelerates across the industry, this enhancement to the CDR will help all parties involved advance this strategic initiative more effectively."

Brent crude, the benchmark, has raced above $111 a barrel, as fears of a fresh escalation in the Iran conflict take hold. Hopes of any kind of fast resolution have faded as Tehran and Washington appear poles apart in their demands. There had been some expectation that talks in China between Trump and Xi Jinping might help prompt a breakthrough, but that has not materialised.

In the meantime, an attack on a nuclear power plant in the UAE has caused a fresh wave of worry. The ceasefire is falling apart at the seams, and nerves are frayed. A US waiver, which had enabled the temporary purchase of stranded Russian seaborne crude oil, has also expired, which further limits global supplies of oil. Rising crude prices, though, are a boon for listed energy giants, with BP and Shell gaining from fears of ongoing geopolitical fracture.

Amid these heightened global tensions, the Downing Street drama is adding to the unpredictability. At a time when the UK needs stability and a doubling down on efforts to attract investment, it’s having the opposite effect. Fears that the energy crunch would set off an inflation surge had already rattled bond markets.

At a time when the UK needs stability and a doubling down on efforts to attract investment, it’s having the opposite effect. Gilt investors are the canaries in Labour’s coalmine, demonstrating the increased wariness with which the UK is being viewed. The recent sell-off in UK government debt has spiked yields, which is set to increase the amount the government has to pay in interest and will therefore act as a fresh squeeze on government spending. The yield on 10-year gilts remains highly elevated, edging towards 5.2% - highs not seen for 18 years, while longer-dated debt has also sold off heavily, with 30-year gilt yields at 5.86%, levels last reached in January 1998.

So, just at a time when Starmer’s challengers are calling for higher spending, and companies are crying out for tax relief, the political debacle is making both increasingly impossible. Labour’s leadership league is now dominating the airwaves, filling the gap left by Eurovision. The suited and booted contenders are chasing the Downing Street glitterball, but risk trampling chances of growth in their pursuit.

Anglo American is shape-shifting again, shedding its steelmaking coal business in Australia. This is part of its transformation from a sprawling diversified resources group into a far more focused copper and iron ore producer. Its sale to privately held UK company Dhilmar involves an upfront payment of US$2.3 billion on completion and a price-linked earnout worth up to US$1.575 billion over five years. This not only strengthens the balance sheet, ahead of its planned merger with Canada’s Teck Resources, but also keeps it exposed to future strength in coal prices. So while it’s exiting what’s viewed as a non-core business, it’s still set to capture returns from a volatile but important market for global steel production. Anglo is spinning plates here but at different speeds. It’s still rapidly pursuing copper and iron ore, which are seen as long-term structural growth drivers, but this deal will give it extra flexibility and ongoing revenues from coal, at a time when Anglo is facing highly capital-intensive projects expanding copper production.”

An annuity equivalent to the state pension and simply linked to the retail prices index would cost in the region of £225,000. The state pension forms the bedrock of many retirement plans, making giving up work affordable for some and making a valuable contribution to the incomes of many more.

While these changes have been signalled for a while it’s worthwhile considering what they mean for the retirement options offered by pension schemes.

Many people will have an aspiration to stop working earlier than age 67, for others, cutting down hours may become a necessity driven by changes in their health or the demands of their job. There is a significant difference in healthy life expectancy across the country, from the lowest in Blackpool at just 52.3 years’ old on average, to the highest in Wokingham where the average person remains healthy until age 70.2 years. Within every workforce there will be those for whom working full time right up until state pension age is no problem, while for others it’s simply not an option.

This is where the flexibility of defined contribution pension saving can be incredibly valuable. Being able to access part of a pension or set up a private pension income that reduces once state pension becomes payable is not only helpful for those who have a plan to retire in their 50’s or early 60’s. Flexibility can be a real help for those who find they need their pension income earlier, or who want to continue to work but work fewer hours, with an income top up from their pension. It can also be helpful for those who want to defer their pension and work past state pension age, enabling them to pay down debt for example, without taking a pension income that they have no need of.

As people age, differences between individuals tend to widen. Health outcomes diverge, levels of savings and other sources of income differ, family responsibilities, caring commitments and personal priorities also change over time. All of this means that retirement is less a single event and more a personal journey that may involve adjustments and unplanned decisions along the way.

Ideally, everyone would have access to some form of financial advice when they take their pension. The advent of targeted support may provide an opportunity to deliver valuable guidance at scale, helping people to better understand their options and make more informed decisions about their retirement income.

The government are looking to simplify things through the provision of default retirement solutions that are suitable for different cohorts of members.

For this intervention to be a success we will need to focus on both the design of the income solutions and the journey that takes savers to a solution that meets their needs. To succeed, it’s important to recognise the need for solutions that help savers have the income they want, when they want it, that deliver good value to all, and which consider people’s retirement needs and circumstances.

As state pension age rises, individual retirement income needs will inevitably become more diverse. Defined contribution pension schemes already have the capability to deliver the right solutions – the question is whether schemes fully embrace flexibility as a strength and design retirement income solutions that reflect the varied realities of working lives today and in the future.

In the UK, the immediate shock of the political crisis has receded, but it’s still clinging on like a damp squib and weakening sentiment. With Andy Burnham, the Mayor of Manchester attempting to barrel his way into Number 10 via a by-election, it's set off another wave of worry about political instability. Sterling has dropped and UK borrowing costs are on the rise again. After receding yesterday 10-year gilt yields have marched higher, back above 5.1%. Burnham's big hurdle of course is winning the by-election and so this leadership race looks set to be long and cumbersome. Another bout of political infighting, with yet another Prime Ministerial shuffle underway is hardly a good look for a country which needs to portray stability to attract investment.

The pound is feeling the pain, amid the pile-on of uncertainty about the UK’s political future. It’s weakened to trade around the lowest level in more than a month, at $1.33, and has also slipped against the euro. This fall in sterling is set to make British companies more attractive takeover targets. Already, plenty of UK-listed firms are considered to be vulnerable, given the valuation gap relative to the US and, to some extent, European peers. This cracked open after Brexit and risks widening further, amid the unpredictability. There’s a raft of bids currently on the table for prime parts of the market, in particular Tate and Lyle, which is currently considering a £2.7 billion offer from Illinois-based Ingredion. If volatility spirals out into further pressure on UK-listed firms, particularly in the mid-cap space, it could spur on another raft of deal-making.

This may prompt a switch in focus for investors into opportunities in the private market. With more companies being snapped up by bigger players, and growing firms staying private for longer before even entering the public space, private markets are where prospects look increasingly more interesting.

Some of the brightest stars spend years being private and may never go through a conventional stock market listing. Of the 159,000 companies globally that generate more than $100 million in revenues, just 19,000 are listed. With more companies staying private for longer, individual investors now have a greater opportunity to share in their success.

Diversification is, as always, crucial. Liquidity in private markets is constrained, valuations can be less transparent and there’s always a risk of arriving late to a cycle that institutional money has already benefited from. So, with more complexity comes more risk, but with the number of listed companies shrinking, the recent opening up of private market opportunities to more retail investors does offer greater choice and opportunity.”

Gary joined The Exeter as Chief Risk Officer in 2024 and has since played a central role in strengthening the organisation’s risk framework and supporting its long-term strategic direction. Before joining The Exeter, he held senior roles at JP Morgan Asset Management, Deloitte, Royal London and Aon.

In his new role, he will assume responsibility for finance, actuarial functions and The Exeter’s insurance solutions team, working closely with the wider executive team to support the business’s ongoing development.

Isobel Langton, Chief Executive Officer at The Exeter, commented: “We are pleased to welcome Gary as Chief Financial Officer. He combines financial and risk experience with a clear understanding of what matters to our members and advisers, and he will continue to play a key role in the future success of The Exeter.

“I’d also like to thank Michael for his contribution to The Exeter over his time with us. He’s played an important role in the business, and we wish him all the best in his new position.”

Gary Warman, Chief Financial Officer at The Exeter, added: “I’m delighted to take on this exciting new role and look forward to continuing to contribute to the organisation’s success as we look to the future. The Exeter has a clear purpose around supporting members when they need us most, and that’s something I’ve seen first-hand.

“I’m looking forward to building on that and continuing to work closely with colleagues across the business to ensure we continue delivering strong financial outcomes and long-term security for our members.”

Maike Currie, VP Personal Finance at PensionBee comments: “An admin nightmare is waiting in the wings for grieving families. Personal representatives - usually family members, friends or executors responsible for dealing with someone’s estate after death - will effectively become pension detectives, expected to track down old workplace schemes, historic pension pots and online-only accounts, often with incomplete records and missing passwords.

“One simple but important thing people can do now is ensure their expression of wish forms detailing their beneficiaries are up to date with all pension providers. Clear beneficiary information and accurate records could significantly reduce delays, confusion and stress for loved ones later on.”

Five key changes when pensions become part of your estate for IHT

1. Most unused pensions will count towards your estate
From 6 April 2027, most unused pension funds and certain pension death benefits will be bought within the perimeter of a deceased person’s estate, for Inheritance Tax purposes. This removes any distortions which may have led to pension schemes being used as a tax planning vehicle to transfer wealth, rather than for funding retirement, and inconsistencies in the Inheritance Tax treatment of different types of pensions.

2. Families face a major new admin burden
Personal representatives will be responsible for tracking down all pensions, gathering valuations, calculating any IHT due and reporting this to HMRC using a new online tool. In practice, this could mean searching through paperwork, old workplace schemes, online accounts and historic providers at the same time as dealing with bereavement and probate.

3. Pension schemes may withhold money
Schemes can be instructed to withhold up to 50% of pension death benefits until inheritance tax liabilities are settled. HMRC says this is designed to stop families having to use non-pension assets to pay the tax bill.

4. Some pension benefits remain exempt
Death-in-service benefits will stay outside inheritance tax, as will pension transfers to spouses and UK-resident civil partners, although these may still need to be reported. Estates leaving at least 10% to charity may qualify for the reduced 36% IHT rate.

5. The system is still being built
HMRC guidance, templates and support tools will continue to be rolled out through 2026 and into spring 2027, leaving pension schemes under pressure to update systems, websites and member communications shortly before the rules take effect.

Maike Currie, VP Personal Finance at PensionBee comments: “There is a bit of good news for bereaved families with HMRC confirming that, in most cases, up to half of pension death benefits should still be able to be paid out relatively quickly while inheritance tax liabilities are being settled.

“The reforms may be aimed at stopping pensions being used as inheritance tax shelters, but the practical burden will fall heavily on ordinary families navigating bereavement at an already stressful time. Pension housekeeping is about to become essential estate planning.”

The initial ONS estimate for first quarter UK GDP has come in better than expected rising 0.6% (consensus 0.5%) compared to the upwardly revised fourth quarter of 2025. That’s the strongest print out of the G7 nations so far with only Japan left to report (consensus 0.4%). The growth was broad based with services leading the way at 0.8% followed by construction at 0.4% and production at 0.2%. But there were some pockets of weakness with administrative and support services falling 1% partly reflecting a weaker outturn from employment agencies as the jobs market slowed.

Stronger than expected economic growth is usually a win for Downing Street in terms of tax revenues. But the period captures just one month of the Iran Conflict and higher oil prices and growth’s expected to slow this quarter. In isolation this data would likely favour the hawks and exert some pressure onto short term gilt prices.

Gilt traders will likely be paying closer attention to the political landscape today, with speculation building that Health Secretary Wes Sterling is soon to launch a challenge to Prime Minister Kier Starmer’s leadership. Angela Rayner has also revealed this morning that she has been cleared of wrongdoing in her tax affairs, paving the way for her own leadership bid. There are rumours swirling around Ed Miliband and Andy Burnham. All this uncertainty, given that most of the candidates would stand on a ‘higher spending’ left leaning platform, means that investors might well continue to demand higher yields.

Fresh records are in sight for Wall Street today after tech stocks propelled both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 to new highs yesterday. NVIDIA boss Jensen Huang’s attendance on the US State visit to China has raised hopes that restrictions on advanced tech exports to the People’s Republic will ease. However, the AI trade has blossomed well enough without such measures with NVIDIA expected to report 78% revenue growth to mammoth $78.5bn. Yesterday, a solid earnings beat by networking giant Cisco and bullish commentary on the Alibaba earnings call suggested that demand for AI and the infrastructure that supports it is intensifying in both regions.

After a pull-back yesterday Brent Crude is up slightly this morning to around $106 per barrel, more than 70% higher than where it was at the beginning of the year. The International Energy Agency has warned that a significant supply deficit till October even if the Iran conflict comes to a swift end. Meanwhile the world’s largest producer Saudi Arabia disclosed that its output has slumped to the lowest level in over three decades. For now, equity markets are choosing to focus on strength elsewhere. However, the cocktail of risks and opportunities facing businesses today means that both sector and individual company performance within those sectors is subject to wide disparity, meaning those brave enough to favour active over passive selection can drive significant outperformance if they do their homework.”

Dashboards have the potential to transform how people engage with their retirement savings – but only if the information they see is complete and correct.

With the connection deadline approaching and the launch of the MoneyHelper dashboard on the horizon, TPR is urging schemes to act now.

The new regulatory initiative (RI) will target 240 private sector DB and hybrid schemes, assessing how they are preparing to meet their dashboard duties, with a particular focus on the readiness and accuracy of value data. Insights from this work will help inform discussions on the timing of the launch of the MoneyHelper dashboard.

TPR’s Executive Director of Market Oversight, Ben Gunnee, said: “Data readiness goes beyond matching people to their pensions. Schemes need to be ready to return the correct values to members. If schemes do not prepare this information in advance, they risk overwhelming their administration teams and, more importantly, risk providing members with incorrect information.

“We will continue to support schemes through guidance, engagement and regulatory action where necessary to ensure dashboards deliver on their promise to help people plan confidently for retirement.”

This latest RI builds on previous interventions which highlighted that schemes were making good progress on the data they need to find members.

However, preparations on value data were found to be less advanced, which is particularly an issue for DB and hybrid schemes. Unlike DC and some public service schemes, DB and hybrid schemes do not have existing obligations to issue annual benefit statements, meaning their value data is more likely to be out of date.

As there are more than 2,000 private sector DB and hybrid schemes in scope for dashboards, TPR is undertaking a deeper assessment to assess the risk that dashboard users will see incomplete or inaccurate information.

The oil shock is starting to show up in corporate results, even if it is being drowned out in the US by the strength of the AI narrative. In the UK and Europe, banks have been taking larger provisions, airlines like Tui are holding up but cautious enough to suspend revenue guidance, and housebuilders such as Vistry are pointing to uncertain demand. Higher energy costs rarely stay contained in commodity markets for long. They filter through to consumer confidence, corporate margins, and lending conditions, making the next few reporting seasons a key test of how resilient earnings really are.

UK government bonds had a bruising session yesterday, with no real let-up this morning, as borrowing costs pushed back to levels not seen since the financial crisis. The 10-year yield is just shy of 5.1%, while the 30-year yield is still above 5.7% in early trading, as a cocktail of political uncertainty, rising oil prices, and renewed inflation concerns has landed at once. The worry is that pressure on Prime Minister Keir Starmer could eventually lead to looser fiscal policy, while higher energy costs are feeding expectations that the Bank of England may have to raise interest rates this year. It’s a tough mix: higher borrowing costs, weaker confidence and less room for the government to offer support if the economy slows.

Copper’s surge to fresh all-time highs is a timely reminder that the AI story is not just about chips and software. Futures climbed this morning, helped by stronger Chinese demand and mounting supply concerns, with resilient industrial activity, power grid investment, renewables and data centre growth all pulling in the same direction. For investors, that gives the rally a broader read-across, especially for mining stocks that have spent the past couple of years leaning into copper as the next major growth commodity. The question now is whether supply can keep up, because if demand from China, electrification and AI infrastructure continue to build, copper could remain one of the clearest ways for miners to prove they have growth beyond the old iron ore cycle.

Oil prices have cooled a touch, with Brent slipping back below $107 per barrel and snapping a three-day rally, but the broader picture is still one of tight supply and elevated geopolitical risk. The Strait of Hormuz remains heavily restricted, keeping a major artery for crude, gas and fuel flows under pressure, while efforts to end the US-Iran conflict have yet to gain real traction. For investors, the pullback looks more like a pause than a clear change in direction.”

The Broadstone Sirius Index has published its April tracking for a ‘growth focused’ and a more conservative ‘matching focused’ investment strategy against a low dependency basis. Both schemes started 90.0% funded at the start of 2026.

Reporting its update for April 2026, the Broadstone Sirius Index found that both schemes reversed the falls experienced in March to just about reach or better the start of year position.

The funding level of the ‘matching focused’ scheme increased by 1.1 percentage points from 88.6% at the end of March to 89.7% at the end of April.

The funding level of the ‘growth focused’ scheme improved more, rising by 2.7 percentage points and benefiting from positive performance in growth assets and higher interest rates, due to not being fully hedged. The funding level increased from 89.0% at the end of March to 91.7% at the end of April, exceeding the position at the start of the year and the funding level of the ‘matching focused’ scheme.

Andrew Knight-Stephens, Investment Director at Broadstone, commented: “Pension schemes with lower levels of interest rate hedging generally saw an improvement in funding levels over April, as higher gilt yields reduced the value of scheme liabilities.

“However, whilst retaining interest rate exposure was rewarded over April, such a position continues to represent a source of funding level risk. Growth assets, particularly equities, delivered positive returns over April, with most major equity markets advancing despite continued volatility and an uncertain macroeconomic backdrop.”

Those born before or on 5 April 1971 won’t be affected as you’ll already be 55 by the time this change comes into place. And individuals born after 5 April 1973 will have the earliest date they can access their pension benefits delayed by two years.

However, there’s a slight quirk for people in the 1971 to 1973 bracket. If you turn 55 between 6 April 2026 and 5 April 2028, you’ll have a short window to start drawing from your pension. If you don’t, you’ll have to wait until your 57th birthday to access your pot.

If savers in this age bracket do not access or ‘crystallise’ their pension before 6 April 2028, they may then have to wait until age 57 to touch their retirement savings - in some cases almost two extra years.

Maike Currie, VP Personal Finance at PensionBee comments: “For some savers this could come as a nasty shock. Many people simply assume they will be able to access their pension at 55, not realising the rules are changing.

“There is a very specific cohort - those born between April 1971 and April 1973 - who face a potential cliff edge. Miss the deadline to access your pension before April 2028 and you could find yourself locked out of your savings for up to two more years.

“That does not mean people should rush to raid their pension. In many cases, leaving savings invested for longer may lead to a healthier retirement pot thanks to a few additional years of extra contributions and investment growth.

“But it does mean people should start planning now. For anyone hoping to retire early, bridge a gap between work and retirement, or phase down working hours in their mid-50s, understanding these dates could be crucial.”

Depending on how you access your pension, you could also trigger the money purchase annual allowance (MPAA). This limits how much you can tax-efficiently pay into your pension each tax year moving forwards (2025/26). You could also use the PensionBee Pension Calculator to see how much income your pension might generate in retirement. You can factor in changes such as when you want to retire, and see what sort of income your pot could provide from 55 or 57 to help you make an informed choice.

The research data reveals an industry operating with limited visibility at the point of decision. In the UK, 93% of properties are insured for the wrong amount, while only 7% are adequately characterised in underwriting files. At the same time, 40-50% of submissions arrive incomplete, forcing underwriters to spend more than half their time chasing missing information rather than assessing risk.

The implications are material, as there is a fundamental asymmetry in underwriting economics; selecting the wrong risk has far greater consequences than mispricing it. This dynamic is driving adverse selection across portfolios, where insurers lacking high-quality data are more likely to retain mischaracterised risks.

The report identifies a major asymmetry in underwriting economics: interviewees argued that selecting the wrong risk can be exponentially more damaging than marginal pricing error. One senior underwriter summarised the imbalance bluntly: “Pick the wrong risk, and it could cost you a hundred million. Wrong pricing, maybe a hundred thousand.”

“Those insurers that address the data problem will be far better positioned to select risk, compete for higher-quality business and accelerate agentic AI underwriting, while those that don’t will face increasing exposure to volatility and adverse selection.

“The good news is that the data already exists, however, it isn’t reaching decision-makers in a structured, trusted form. Closing that gap is critical to unlocking the full value of AI and ensuring underwriting decisions are grounded in reality, not assumption.” said Anthony Peake, Founder and CEO, Intelligent AI

The research also points to measurable performance gains from better-quality exposure intelligence. McKinsey estimates that insurers using advanced analytics in underwriting have achieved 3–5 point improvements in loss ratios alongside 10–15% increases in new business. The report additionally cites examples of carriers reducing loss frequency by as much as 60% through the use of verified property-level risk data.

The impact is already visible. UK property claims reached record highs of £5.7 billion in 2024 and £6.1 billion in 2025, while global catastrophe losses continue to rise. In the case of Business Interruption, it is significantly under-priced, often by a factor of three to five, due to a lack of visibility into supply chain dependencies.

Across the insurance ecosystem, data exists within brokers, third-party providers and internal systems, but rarely arrives in a consistent, trusted and decision-ready format, despite significant investment in AI and automation. This creates a bottleneck at the submission stage, driving delays, manual intervention and weaker decisions.

In response to these industry challenges, Intelligent AI recently introduced Risk_API, designed to help insurers enrich underwriting workflows with verified, structured property intelligence at the point of submission. The company sees this type of API-first risk infrastructure as foundational to the next generation of AI-driven and agentic underwriting, helping carriers move from fragmented, manually gathered information toward continuously accessible, decision-ready risk intelligence embedded directly within underwriting operations. Continues…

For senior leaders, the implications are strategic. Rising regulatory expectations around data governance and auditability, combined with reinsurance pricing pressures, mean data quality, and its use with AI tools, is now directly linked to capital performance. This means that the ‘Risk Intelligence Gap’ is no longer an operational issue; it is a determinant of competitiveness and resilience for the future.

It means that the careful application of AI, unified systems and modern technology processes will be required for providers to position themselves for future growth.

A key example is the new requirement for trustees to provide ‘guided’ default retirement pathways for members of trust-based DC pension schemes. This will require trustees to define membership groupings that best fit a particular default pathway, and to refine these groupings as more data becomes available.

This ongoing data challenge is not only a ‘good fit’ for the use of AI - it can be argued that it almost demands the use of AI to ensure that trustees make the best use of the data they hold when making the critical decision to assign members to default pathways.

The adoption of AI in scenarios like this will rightly require high levels of trust. This trust will need to be earned through robust governance, operating models and technology, evidenced to be compliant with all existing legislation, and any future guidance that regulators produce.

AI is already being applied to tackle other challenges across the pensions market, and its careful application, alongside human expertise, will also be vital in handling some of the other operational pressures that will build as a result of the Pension Schemes Act, with its focus on large-scale consolidation and new standardised requirements to assess Value for Money.

As AI develops further and becomes more integral over the coming months and years, it is set to become a key enabler of a more automated, standardised and resilient pensions infrastructure in the UK, according to

Maurice Titley, Commercial Director, Data & Dashboards at Lumera commented: “As we enter a new era for the pensions sector in the UK, AI is set to be a critical driver of transformation in how providers achieve greater efficiencies and improve the member experience.”

“Greater automation and use of AI will play a critical role in supporting the evolving requirements and regulations contained within the Pension Schemes Act that the industry must comply with. Innovative operating models, human oversight and robust governance will be at the centre of this drive, giving trustees and providers the confidence to capitalise on AI’s full potential. It creates an opportunity to improve administration, standards and outcomes right across the pensions sector, enhancing rather than replacing the expertise that defines the industry.”

“Investment in these technologies will be critical to extracting maximum value over the long-term and achieving a market that is prudent, progressive and people-centric.”

Cost pressures are contributing to downbeat consumer data for April, out today from Barclaycard and the British Retail Consortium. Barclaycard said card spending fell 0.1% year-on-year, the first decline since 2024. Staying at home is coming back in vogue, with digital content and subscription spending rising 9.2% - a sharp contrast to the 5.7% decline in travel, with airline spend down a further 8.3%. It’s in times like these that airline business model strengths and weaknesses become apparent. Among the UK-listed names, IAG stands out as a high-margin business, with a diverse route network and a sensible fuel-hedging strategy.

The British Retail Consortium April report showed a 3% decline in retail sales for April. However, the timing of Easter was a considerable drag. March and April combined make for a more meaningful comparison, with sales up 1.5%. The Easter shift was likely the key reason for a 2.5% decrease in food sales, but big-ticket items also fell, and consumer confidence remains fragile.

Imperial Brands first half results landed as expected, with underlying revenue up 1.8% to £3.7bn. Strong pricing in tobacco has offset continuing volume declines, and 7.5% increase in next generation products (vapes, oral and heated tobacco) saw a strong performance in Europe and emerging markets, masked by weakness in the US, where heavy discounting saw sales fall. 2026 guidance remains unchanged, but with first half underlying operating profit up just 0.6%, there’s still work to do to hit the 3-5% full-year target. With management holding back on buybacks for now, there’s not much for investors to latch onto today.

Brent crude prices remain stubbornly high at close to $105 per barrel. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has moved the narrative firmly away from oversupply worries towards fears of a deficit. Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser said the market has lost around 100 million barrels of output per week, and that even a few weeks of further disruption could significantly delay a return to market stability.

US stock futures are down this morning after both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite hit fresh highs. Corporate strength has outweighed geopolitical tensions, with the S&P 500 on track to deliver a 27% increase in earnings per share over the first quarter, which, according to FactSet, would be the fastest growth since the end of 2021.

The strong US economy and the inflationary impact of the Middle East crisis have pushed interest-rate cut expectations out to at least the end of this year. Today’s key data point is the US Consumer Price Index print for April, which is expected to show core inflation accelerating to 2.7% from 2.6% in March, and a bigger jump in headline prices from 3.3% to 3.7%, which includes energy costs. The risks are skewed to a hotter-than-expected increase in prices, and while headline numbers may not move the dial, a higher-than-forecast core number could at least put a temporary brake on market optimism.”

Shalin Bhagwan, PPF Chief Actuary, said: “Market conditions remained challenging through the month as persistent inflation pressures and elevated energy prices kept global bond yields high. Expectations of further central bank tightening continued to build, with UK gilt yields rising as investors reassessed the path of monetary policy. Against this backdrop, risk asset performance was mixed and bond markets remained under pressure.

Within this environment, the PPF 7800 index recorded a £5.3bn fall in the aggregate funding surplus, taking it to £258.5bn. The funding ratio dipped to 131.2 per cent, as scheme assets fell by 1.6 per cent and liabilities by 1.4 per cent. Despite the modest softening, funding levels remain robust, supported by the continued influence of higher discount rates.”

View the May update and see the supporting data on the 7800 Index for 30 April 2026 here: The PPF 7800 index | Pension Protection Fund.

Mr Breuer carried out at least 16 DB pension transfers while knowing he was uninsured. He also repeatedly misled the FCA about the firm’s insurance position.

In October 2019, Mr Breuer agreed to restrictions introduced by the FCA to protect customers and the firm’s assets. Mr Breuer ignored these restrictions and stripped the firm’s assets by paying himself large dividends, taking personal loans and moving money through connected accounts. By September 2020, Mr Breuer knew that the FCA had concerns about the suitability of Bluesky’s DB advice and from June 2022 onwards, the Financial Ombudsman Service upheld several complaints against Bluesky on the DB advice Mr Breuer had given. He then placed Bluesky into an insolvency process in April 2023, leaving substantial customer liabilities of at least £214,772.88 to be met by the Financial Services Compensation Scheme (FSCS).

Therese Chambers, joint executive director of enforcement and market oversight at the FCA, said: “Mr Breuer sought to evade paying compensation due to customers as a result of his own bad pension advice and feathered his own nest in the process, stripping substantial assets from his firm. He repeatedly misled the FCA and flouted FCA restrictions. He’s not fit to work in financial services."

Anyone who has been affected by Mr Breuer’s advice should visit the FSCS website to check whether they’re eligible for compensation.

Enquiries

Press: 020 7066 3232 / press.office@fca.org.uk

With the World Cup, hosted in the USA, Canada and Mexico, set to be the most spectated football event, it's anticipated that fraudsters will target the big-name fixtures and attempt to exploit international demand.

The government and Lloyds are teaming up once again to highlight the issue to football supporters, as part of the Stop! Think Fraud campaign. Led by the Home Office and supported by partners across law enforcement, banking, tech, retail and the charity sector, the campaign empowers individuals and small businesses with the tools and knowledge they need to protect themselves from fraud.

Liz Ziegler, Fraud Prevention Director, Lloyds said: “Fraudsters thrive on urgency and target fans looking for hard-to-get tickets for big-name fixtures. Most of the football ticket scams we see start on social media – especially Facebook and Instagram – before the criminal moves the buyer onto WhatsApp and insists on a bank transfer to pay. It’s incredibly convincing, and we don’t want fans to lose their money trying to support their team. We’re urging supporters to stay alert and stick to official ticketing channels.”

Lord Hanson, Minister for Fraud, UK Home Office said: “As excitement builds for the World Cup, fraudsters are preparing to exploit loyal fans searching for tickets. I urge all football supporters hunting for tickets to Stop! Think Fraud and show fraudsters the red card. Only buy directly from FIFA or the FIFA Resale Marketplace. Missing out on a big match is disappointing, but becoming a victim to a scam makes it even harder to bear."

"Our new fraud strategy sets out how we will use every tool at our disposal to disrupt and dismantle criminal operations, bring fraudsters to justice and strengthen support for victims."

Scammers know demand will be huge and will mimic the methods seen in club-level scams: fake listings on social media, pressure to act quickly and requests for bank transfers. Fraudsters move quickly, creating fake waiting lists, counterfeit QR codes or bogus “pre-release” offers to lure people in.

Practical advice: Liz Ziegler’s tips for avoiding football ticket scams

“I own a popular chain of barber shops ‘Rag and Bone’, so have been swapping tips and stories with lots of clients in the barber’s chair who have also been looking for legitimate tickets.

“In the process, I’ve definitely come across a number of suspected fake or questionable listings, with many tickets appearing either massively overpriced or outright dodgy, especially on Facebook. It definitely takes a bit of the excitement out of buying tickets when you’re having to worry if it’s real or not.”

Earlier this year the Government launched a new Fraud Strategy to tackle the UK’s most commonly experienced crime by strengthening partnerships across sectors, disrupting criminal operations and delivering better support for victims. This includes a £31m investment for a new Online Crime Centre, combining the data, expertise and capabilities of the police, GCHQ, banks, telecommunications and tech firms to shut down the avenues that fraudsters exploit, wherever in the world they might be.

Daniel Taylor, Director at Trafalgar House, said: “The industry is feeling the weight of rising expectations and shrinking capacity. Member questions are becoming more technical and more frequent, while fee pressure remains steady. The challenge is how teams continue to deliver the standard that schemes and members depend on and AI has a clear role to play in that.

“However, there is still hesitation around AI within parts of the industry, and that needs to shift. The barriers to adoption need to start coming down, and we need to see less resistance to technology that has the potential to support schemes in a very practical way.

“Some of that resistance comes from a misunderstanding of how AI can be used in a regulated environment. It is sometimes viewed as a ‘wild west’ tool, or as something that sits outside the governance and security frameworks pensions administration requires. In reality, that is not the case.”

Taylor added: “With the right controls, oversight and implementation, AI can absolutely operate within the same standards of data security, auditability and compliance that underpin all good administration.

“Member expectations are also changing. They are already using AI in their everyday lives, becoming more financially informed and asking more complex questions, which is raising the bar for administrators.”

Taylor concluded: “This is not about replacing people. It is about supporting experienced teams, improving efficiency and helping schemes manage increasing demand without compromising on quality. Ultimately, schemes just want reliability, clarity and confidence when dealing with administration. AI can help protect those outcomes when used responsibly and the industry should be exploring it with real purpose, not hesitation.”

The FTSE 100 is, as ever, a poor proxy for the UK domestic economy, as most of its constituents earn revenues overseas. It is in the gilt market and in the pound where UK political risk tends to show up most clearly. Any sign that markets are losing confidence in the government’s economic management may put upward pressure on borrowing costs and weigh on sterling. We will be watching this throughout the day.

Away from Westminster, two significant reports today added to a growing picture of a UK economy that is losing momentum. The ITEM Club pointed to weakness in manufacturing and construction, sectors squeezed by higher energy costs. This chimes with what housebuilders have been saying, several of whom have flagged margin pressure from higher input costs, as well as planning delays and affordability constraints, which are weighing on volumes. Meanwhile, the Recruitment and Employment Confederation’s latest survey showed more businesses opting for temporary rather than permanent hires. That is a telling signal. When companies are uncertain about the outlook, they avoid locking in fixed employment costs. It does not necessarily point to rising unemployment in the near term, but it does suggest that business confidence is weakening.

Zoom out from the domestic picture, however, and the mood is somewhat more constructive. Donald Trump travels to Beijing this week for talks with President Xi, with an extension of last year’s trade truce firmly on the agenda. A six-to-twelve month rollover looks achievable as neither side has an obvious incentive to let the ceasefire expire. China has insulated itself reasonably well from the spike in global energy costs that has followed the conflict in the Middle East, managing domestic fuel pricing, holding substantial strategic reserves of oil and coal, and having made significant strides in renewable energy capacity. The US, for its part, holds its strongest cards in advanced semiconductors, where Chinese access remains a live issue. On the other hand, China will continue to leverage its dominance of rare earth production.

On the company front, four names stand out this week. National Grid reports full-year results against the backdrop of its ambitious £70bn five-year infrastructure investment plan, a 70% uplift on the prior period, as it positions itself at the heart of the electrification of industrial demand and the surge in data centre energy needs driven by AI. Analysts are forecasting revenues to hold broadly flat at around £18.3bn, with operating profits growing at a faster pace of nearly 8% to £5.8bn, helped by improvements in its UK transmission business. Vodafone updates investors amid ongoing questions about the pace of its strategic simplification. Burberry, still in the early stages of a significant turnaround, will give the market its latest read on whether demand for luxury goods is stabilising after a difficult period. And Greggs reports as it pushes ahead with a target of 120 net new store openings this year, extending trading hours to capture the evening occasion. Sales rose a healthy 6.3% in the first nine weeks of the year, but the consumer backdrop has tightened since then, and the knock-on effects of the Middle East conflict on household confidence will be worth watching in its latest numbers."

The Pensions Schemes Act 2026 will significantly reshape the market with a focus on scale, value and good outcomes for members. Alongside this, the Pensions Commission is considering the longer-term future of the system.

That is why in its latest proposed five-year strategy, TPR sets out a set of six outcomes that will drive the regulator’s work over the years to come as well as principles for how it will work with the workplace pensions market to deliver its vision.

Chief Executive Nausicaa Delfas said: “We are today launching a consultation on our five-year Corporate Strategy, at a pivotal time in pensions. Our mission is to protect workplace pensions members’ money, enhance the pensions system and support innovation in members’ interests. We encourage stakeholders to engage in our consultation to make sure that together we can create a system which delivers what matters most: a sustainable income in retirement for everyone”

The consultation document [Corporate strategy consultation] outlines TPR’s intention to progress six outcomes – member and market – that guide their regulatory work and will demonstrate success:

The consultation runs until 8 June 2026. Following feedback, TPR plans to publish the final version of its strategy in July, alongside its Corporate Plan.

If you need more in retirement, then small steps can make a really big difference. Boosting your contributions above auto-enrolment minimums can grow your pension. Increasing it to 6%, for instance, could see you with £265,000 at the age of 68. Deciding to go further and contribute at 8% could see it head above £320,000. It shows that building habits such as boosting contributions every time you get a pay increase can really pay off when it comes to retirement.

Your employer may also have the chance to play a bigger part. Some are willing to increase their pension contribution if you increase yours – the so-called employer match. So, if you have the extra money to spare, then you could see a real hike in your employer contribution too. For instance, if you were to contribute 6% and your employer were to match it then you could see your pension pot grow to £353,000.

It shows the importance of checking in on your pension from time to time to see how it is performing. Think about what a good retirement might look like for you and what that might cost so you can get a sense of how much you might need on an annual basis. Online pension calculators can not only tell you how big your pension pot might be at retirement, they can also show you how much income that pot might give you so you can see if you are on track for the retirement you want. If you are – great! If you aren’t, then you’ve got time to do something about it, and taking small steps when you can, might help you close the gaps quickly and mean there are no nasty surprises at retirement. The most recent findings from HL’s Savings and Resilience Barometer showed higher earners were at risk of a retirement shock with a pension savings gap of £64,800. This means many face the very real prospect of not being able to maintain their lifestyle in retirement – taking action early can make all the difference.”

The Scheme is sponsored by The Access Group (“the Company”), one of the leading providers of business management software, which was keen to support the Trustees in its objective of securing member benefits.

The transaction, completed in March 2026, secures the benefits of 16 deferred and 24 pensioner members of the Scheme and completes the buy-in of all Scheme liabilities.

The transaction was achieved using the assets of the Scheme and, once a legacy illiquid asset was realised, did not require an additional contribution from the Company. The transaction was concluded swiftly in busy market using Broadstone’s SM&RT Insure process in tandem with Just’s streamlined service, Beacon.

Broadstone provided annuity broking alongside their existing services for actuarial, investment consultancy and scheme administration. Legal advice to the Trustees was provided by Gateley Legal.

Bob Jenkinson, Deal Lead at Broadstone, said: “Small scheme transactions like this require specialist knowledge of the insurance market and the extensive experience Broadstone have in the area proved invaluable. It was imperative the Scheme undertook a robust preparation phase to ensure data was in a suitable state of readiness for the transaction. All of that hard work paid off, and the transaction was completed seamlessly in under 4 weeks during a period of market volatility.”

Palwinder Hare at HS Trustees, commented: “Our Advisers guided the Trustees expertly through the entire project, delivering clear, focussed advice on the process and the key risks and issues associated with this type of transaction. The seamless execution proved the worth of the rigorous preparation and the strength of the approach. The efficiency of the transaction really put the valuable preparation into perspective and has proved its value.”

Alma Goyanes-Payne, Business Development Manager at Just, said: “Supporting schemes of all sizes is core to our approach at Just. By using our streamlined pricing service, small schemes can monitor pricing and move quickly to execution at the right time. We are pleased to have supported the Scheme in achieving its derisking objectives.”

Knowledge gaps are wider for those on low incomes. Just one in 10 members with incomes less than £25,000 have a good grasp of how their pension is invested (10%) and what overall retirement income they are on course to achieve (14%).

The survey, conducted in Q4 2025, also shows how these knowledge gaps are translating into a lack of meaningful action. About two-thirds of members have never changed how their pension is invested (68%) and never consolidated their DC pension pots (66%). In addition, more than half have never set a specific retirement date (62%) or increased monthly pension contributions (55%).

Despite these knowledge and action gaps, the study highlights relatively high levels of digital interaction with DC providers. A majority (55%) of members have used their provider’s online portal to check or manage their pension within the last 12 months, while 39% have used their provider’s mobile app. And 57% say they view their main provider’s website or mobile app as a key source of information and educational content.

While members see their provider’s digital channels as a vital information hub, most are not making use of the educational content provided. Less than a third have accessed online information on core areas including contributions needed to achieve their desired retirement lifestyle (32%), how inflation impacts pensions (26%), options available upon retirement (25%) and potential overall retirement income (25%).

A key focus of the study was to understand how more tailored approaches to member engagement – utilising digital channels – may help to drive more positive pension behaviours.

“Encouragingly, our findings show that a growing number of members across all age groups are now visiting their pension providers’ digital channels. But on the flipside, we see that this interaction is not translating into engagement that boosts member understanding and ultimately spurs meaningful action,” says Joe Dalton, Head of Research, Europe, at CoreData.

The research also assessed how the barriers to taking pension actions differ for members within different age cohorts, income levels and of differing financial literacy levels. “Our analysis highlights how financial literacy, life stage and wealth levels all affect not just the type of information needed by different members to support better decisions, but also the way in which that information is delivered,” adds Dalton.

“Some cohorts are avoiding engagement with their pension because they’re afraid of what they might find, others are eager to take action but struggle to understand what income they will need and what their current trajectory is – and then there are more complacent members who think they’ll be fine because they are making the minimum auto-enrolment contributions.”

“Given these different factors, a one-size-fits-all approach to member engagement is unlikely to drive the necessary behavioural change to meaningfully improve retirement outcomes. A more tailored approach to engagement is needed, and that requires building a more complete picture of individual members’ financial situation and behavioural profile and harnessing technology to deliver tailored communication at scale.”

Key Findings

While the results show a dramatic shift in AI usage across different insurance functions, they also show a much greater awareness of the risks and opportunities that lie ahead. You can view the survey and the accompanying toolkit here:

Access the toolkit

Read the survey

The AI adoption toolkit has been designed as a guide for LMA members who are developing or enriching their existing AI governance frameworks to ensure the responsible, transparent and effective use of AI systems across their operations. It has been developed using insights from our recent survey on “AI Risk Management”, bringing together industry insights from Chief Risk Officers (CROs) and Chief Operating Officers (COOs) amongst the respondents. We collated insights from 39 participants, representing over 60% of the market’s stamp capacity. Deeper perspectives were provided by 11 in-depth interviews.

In the resulting report, we introduce five principles that LMA members can consider when designing their own AI policy or framework:

The report also provides practical templates and summarises existing guidance from other organisations such as the ABI, UK government, EIOPA and NIST.

We have also observed that companies with a US presence tend to be more advanced in terms of their adoption relative to other players in the market. In our view, there are two key reasons for this:

Our research shows an additional factor determining the speed of AI system roll-outs is personal drive from the leaders. A few respondents shared that their relatively quick adoption was due to senior leaders within the business being keen to be ahead of the curve in embracing these new tools.

Despite the optimism visible in the report, it is not without its concerns. Participants questioned whether they were investing enough to truly benefit from AI, and reflected on whether there were tangible benefits to being an early adopter in an area that is quickly evolving. We urge firms to consider both opportunity and adaptability when devising an AI strategy, which must be in line with their business needs.

AI technologies are evolving very quickly and it’s clear there is no single right or wrong approach to an AI framework. What’s important, however, is that companies continue to balance the risk and opportunity, and devise a practical strategy and robust risk management for AI adoption.

To discuss the findings of this survey, the toolkit, or to gain any further insights into AI Risk Management, please reach out to us or your contacts at the LMA.

Extreme weather continues to take its toll as the average home insurance claim for weather-related damage was £6,040. Claims payouts for extreme weather can vary significantly depending on the time of year, and at £6,040 this is the highest first-quarter average on record – up 38% compared to the same period last year when it was £4,390.

The average household subsidence claim was also up year-on-year – rising 9% from £16,295 in 2025 to £17,820 in the first quarter of 2026. Home insurers also paid out £4,350 for the average theft claim this quarter, a 14% increase from last year’s average of £3,800. Home insurance payouts accounted for over half (57%) of all property payouts in this period, with a total of £1.5 billion in claims paid to support households and businesses.

Household property premiums
Premiums fell for a fourth consecutive quarter, with the average combined buildings and contents down another £5 to reach £375. The average combined premium is now 5% (£22) lower than the same period last year when it stood at £396. The average buildings-only premium was £306, a 6% (£19) decrease compared to the same time last year. Contents-only cover averaged £117, 12% (£15) cheaper year-on-year.

Chris Bose, Director of General Insurance Policy at the ABI, said: With nearly £1.5 billion paid out to customers in just three short months, there’s no doubt property insurance remains a vital financial safety net for households and businesses. With record Q1 average payouts for extreme weather events, we continue to see the impact of adverse weather on people’s homes. Stronger action from government is still needed to ensure new homes aren’t built in high-flood risk areas and that properties are designed to withstand climate risks. Getting this right will protect homes and business owners and support thriving communities.”

With company results thin on the ground, it’s the macro picture that’s likely to dominate today. 10-year gilt yields are up a couple of basis points to within touching distance of 5%. As the local election results roll in, it’s not looking good for Labour, and the potential for a leadership change is undermining confidence in the UK’s fiscal health. While political winds can change on a sixpence, the gilt yield is a decent proxy for risk-free returns, a key technical driver of share prices which, all other things being equal (they rarely are!), should move in the opposite direction of yields. If government borrowing costs rise further, expect more pressure on the London markets. Events in the Middle East are also weighing on sentiment this morning.

Further exchanges of fire in the Strait of Hormuz overnight have sent Brent Crude oil prices up around 1$ to $101 per barrel, with Tehran seemingly in no hurry to make a deal with President Trump. In time, bypasses such as the Israeli Land Bridge and Sharjah–Fujairah Energy Corridor could reduce reliance on this critical energy chokepoint, but none of these are going to be a quick or full fix.

US stock futures are making a little headway this morning, with the tech-heavy NASDAQ leading the charge. That’s despite ARM Holdings’ bull run losing steam in the wake of record results. It wasn’t the numbers that spooked investors but concerns about sourcing manufacturing capacity for its next-gen AI processors, which can be read as yet another signal of white-hot demand for computing power.

US jobs data are the key economic numbers Wall Street will be watching later. Consensus expectations are for a 62k addition to non-farm payrolls and for unemployment to remain steady at 4.3%. With ADP private payrolls coming in better than expected, the numbers could come in a little stronger. That’s a pretty resilient outcome given the geopolitical backdrop. So far, AI is not proving to be the end of the jobs market as we know it, with skilled labour in particularly high demand. With inflationary concerns running high, a strong print could move expectations for rate cuts further out yet.“

This is an exciting time in the pensions market. It also provides employers an opportunity to consider whether this type of arrangement could be right for them and their staff.

A key aspect of CDC schemes is that, by pooling members and sharing risks, they have the potential to deliver better retirement outcomes than a DC scheme.

Multi-employer CDC schemes are expected to operate for “unconnected” employers in the same way to how DC master trusts work today. This could provide employers with the opportunity to:

Achieve lower operating cost than running a single-employer CDC scheme.Outsource governance to the scheme provider.Retain freedom to move away from CDC provision and leave the scheme in future.

CDC may not be right for everyone. There are also risks that must be considered. These include how a CDC scheme is communicated to members, and of the reduced flexibility members have in how they can access their pension at retirement compared with a DC scheme. However, CDC can offer an attractive alternative for employers that are looking to support a higher expected pension income at retirement for their employees, without increasing costs.

Employers therefore face an important question: does a DC pension arrangement still deliver the best outcomes for my employees, or could a CDC pension arrangement provide a stronger offering?

This article was first published by REBA.

Based on current inflation-linked annuity rates for a healthy 65-year-old (4.99%), retirees need around £300 of pension savings to secure £1 of guaranteed monthly income for life. This means multiplying any regular monthly cost by 300 reveals the pension savings needed to secure it for life. And because an inflation-linked annuity protects income against rising prices, the Rule of 300 helps people understand these costs in real terms, not just today’s prices.

By using everyday examples it’s possible to see how common monthly expenses convert into the pension savings required to fund them for life. For instance, a typical £12 per month streaming subscription would require around £3,600 of pension savings, while a £30 per month broadband bill equates to roughly £9,000.

* The Rule of 300 uses a 20% income tax assumption for illustration. Actual tax treatment will vary based on individual circumstances

Pete Cowell, Head of Annuities at Standard Life said: “The Rule of 300 turns retirement planning into something real that people can relate to. It shows, in simple pounds and pence, how everyday monthly costs translate into the pension savings needed to cover them for life.

“Too often pensions feel abstract. By linking retirement income back to familiar bills and subscriptions, the Rule of 300 helps people picture what their pension really needs to deliver, and plan with much greater confidence.”

However, the risks differ as drawdown income depends heavily on investment returns and withdrawal behaviour. Previous Standard Life analysis shows that a £100,000 pension could last a lifetime if withdrawals stayed at £4,000 annually, and investment growth remained over 5%. However, it could run out in just 13 years if withdrawals were higher and returns lower depending on market performance and income levels, underlining the challenge of making savings last throughout retirement.

Pete continued, “Understanding your day-to-day spending is one of the most important parts of retirement planning. The State Pension will cover some core costs, but for most people it won’t stretch to everything they want or need in retirement.

“Whether someone uses an annuity, drawdown, or a combination of both, being clear about essential spending can make a real difference to long-term financial security. If people need support, getting guidance or speaking to a financial adviser before making major retirement decisions can really help.”

US futures point to a more muted open today, but the real story is in last night’s close, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both hitting fresh records as raw earnings power and hopes of Middle East de-escalation proved a powerful cocktail for equity markets. AMD was the standout, and another reminder that the AI infrastructure buildout still looks to be in its early chapters, with demand continuing to run ahead of even bullish expectations. But this earnings season is not just an AI story, with profit growth running above 20% at the S&P 500 level for the 80% of companies having already reported. Strength has been broad, from the obvious AI-linked areas like energy, materials and industrials, through to consumer names, utilities and healthcare, which gives this rally a firmer foundation than one built on a handful of obvious AI names alone.

For investors who feel they’ve missed the boat, the natural question is whether it’s too late to get involved in the AI theme. Based on what we’re seeing, from rapid model improvement and the early ramp in agents, to unwavering demand from the biggest builders and underlying strength driven by exploding earnings growth, that doesn’t look to be the case. This has the feel of an industrial revolution unfolding in real time, and even the CEOs closest to the action are having to recalibrate their expectations month by month. The easy gains may have been made in some pockets, but the scale of the buildout suggests the opportunity set is still broadening, not closing.

Oil has steadied after a sharp slide, and remains in the $95-100 a barrel range as investors weigh the chances of a Middle East peace deal and a gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Reports suggest the US has sent Iran a one-page memorandum through Pakistani intermediaries, but while Iran is reviewing the proposal, President Trump has warned it’s still a "big assumption" that a deal gets over the line. That leaves oil markets caught between relief that a diplomatic path is emerging and caution that the supply shock is not over, as record US exports show buyers are already scrambling for alternative barrels.”

Chesner added: “While individual transactions can attract attention, they sit within this broader trend. For trustees, the key is maintaining a clear focus on the fundamentals that underpin good outcomes, particularly as pricing conditions may be as competitive as they are likely to be in the near term. This means continuing to focus on insurer financial strength and capital backing, understanding the wider group and its long-term ownership model, and ensuring transaction processes are well prepared and properly test the market.”

Yona Chesner concluded: “Buy-in and buy-out transactions remain among the most significant financial decisions trustees will make. In what remains a competitive but increasingly complex market, strong preparation, clear governance and a thorough assessment of insurers continue to be critical for trustees.”

Laura McLaren, Head of DB Scheme Actuary, Hymans Robertson, said: “This year’s Annual Funding Statement reinforces themes that are now fairly well established – applying the new funding code in practice, navigating endgame decisions and managing surplus – while also signalling further regulatory guidance and wider industry developments. Despite geopolitical and market uncertainty, scheme funding remains resilient, with TPR estimating that as many as 60% of schemes are now in buy out surplus. The shift from deficit repair to long term planning is clearly here to stay. With many schemes still completing their first valuations under the new regime, it’s no surprise that the statement continues to clarify requirements and address common queries. Insight on actual submissions remains limited, but TPR plans to analyse 2025 valuation statements once received, which should bring some helpful transparency around how strategies are being assessed. Although TPR hasn’t shared a precise Fast Track/Bespoke split, early indications that around 80% of schemes could meet Fast Track at little or no employer cost look about right. Keeping Fast Track parameters unchanged provides welcome stability. Notably, TPR emphasises an “objectives first” approach before choosing Fast Track or Bespoke, echoing our view that strategy should lead and compliance should follow. Trustees are also encouraged to consider endgame options and develop surplus policies. This is particularly timely given the new Pension Schemes Act, which lays the groundwork for surplus use. The focus now shifts to implementation, and it’s positive that TPR will publish further guidance in the coming months, including some early views on surplus use ahead of more detailed regulations. Getting this important guidance right will be essential to ensure schemes, trustees and employers can engage confidently while protecting member outcomes. Overall, we welcome the sense that valuations are increasingly becoming strategic tools, an opportunity to refine long term plans and assess progress. Indeed, after a transformative period for DB schemes, trustees and sponsors should seize this moment to review and strengthen strategy, whether or not a valuation is currently underway.”

Adrian Bourne, Co-Chair of the SPP’s Covenant Committee, said: "The strong funding referenced in TPR’s Annual Funding Statement is more than just a number. With most schemes now in surplus, the shift from recovery to future planning reflects real progress and growing resilience, where employer covenant can continue to play a part in shaping credible, well-supported endgames.” Jon Forsyth, Chair of the SPP’s DB Committee said: “Against this backdrop of improved funding, clarity on emerging areas such as surplus release and endgame options will be essential. Trustees will need to balance new opportunities with appropriate safeguards, ensuring that any decisions taken are aligned with member interests while reflecting the evolving legislative and regulatory landscape.”

TPR Annual Funding Statement 2026

Brent crude has been on the descent, but it’s still trading above $108 dollars a barrel indicating that there’s still scepticism around, and concern about how to get so many vital energy shipments moving again with the Strait of Hormuz still effectively blocked. There’s still a big diplomatic impasse to break through, and so for now, the energy crunch is still a harsh reality to navigate.

Next has demonstrated it was in a highly resilient position before the Iran war began, with its wardrobe of brands attracting high demand. Its curated marketplace offering, helped power up transactions for an exceptional period of trading with sales up 6.2%. It means it's lifted full-year guidance for pre-tax profits to £1.218 billion from £1.21 billion.

However, the onset of hostilities put creases in its performance. Logistics issues are slowing international sales, however an uptick at the end of the quarter indicates these were beginning to be ironed out.

Nevertheless, it’s had to size up painfully higher freight and energy costs - which totalled a £47 million hit. But Next is tailoring its operations to try and absorb the shock, with some price rises planned internationally, and cost cuts elsewhere to try and keep profits intact. Understandably, the company remains cautious given the unpredictability of the conflict and the current consumer caution swirling, and shares dipped slightly in early trade.

There’s a bit more fizz returning to Diageo with flat first-half sales replaced with a bit more sparkle. Net sales were up 2.3% for the quarter compared to a year ago, providing cheer to shares in early trade.

Although there’s no change to the guidance, better performances in Europe, Latin America and Africa have added a bit of zing to the picture and a cause for celebration. There was a seasonal lift due to the early arrival of Easter and there are also some tentative signs that a frenzy of World Cup fever will keep spirit demand higher

However, the hangover from the tariff effects is lingering with North America sales still proving a headache at a time when demand was already weaker. Americans aren’t hitting premium brands in the same way, potentially due to trading down but also competition in the market from domestic names. It means that the full year still points to a contraction but with the tone a little more positive about the outlook, with cost savings on track, a glass half full attitude is starting to return.

There will be worries that cheap pints might be the latest casualty of higher costs facing pubs, given JD Wetherspoon’s latest update. It demonstrates the extent to which the sector is grappling with mounting financial pressures despite steady demand.

Although the bar is still busy, with Wetherspoon’s value offering continuing to pull in punters, margins risk being diluted as the rising cost burden froths up. Management has warned that profits could come in slightly below expectations, suggesting higher wage bills, energy prices and input costs are starting to eat into takings.

The danger is that something has to give, and the worry will be that low pricing which is a cornerstone of Wetherspoon’s appeal may come under pressure. While the World Cup and extended opening hours may provide a short-term boost to sales, they’re unlikely to fully offset the squeeze, leaving the group with the increasingly tricky balance of keeping prices low while protecting profitability.”

Keeping with the law angle we also have Henry Wood, Senior Partner from Hunters Law looking at why pensions still go missing in divorce settlements. Todd Eyler, Life Insurance Lead at EIS stating that without a design shift Life Insurance risks irrelevance. Alex Johnson, Head of Insurance Solutions at Quantexa, article on why AI decision accountability is a requirement in Insurance and last but certainly not least we have Torolf Hamm, WTW, on how to plan for extreme climate uncertainty.

In a packed edition all of our usual contributors are also on hand to lend their viewpoints to current events.

We look forward to welcoming you back next month.

Aon 2026 Global Insurance Market Insights report

Sky-high oil prices continue to be a drag on sentiment as exchanges of fire between the US and Iran cast doubt on the durability of the month-long ceasefire. Brent Crude oil is steady at around $114 per barrel, after a rise of around 6% on Monday took prices to within touching distance of a four-year high.

The ongoing volatility gives further arbitrage opportunities to oil majors with well-developed trading arms. That includes Shell, which reports first-quarter numbers on Thursday. A strong trading result should take the edge off damage sustained to its Pearl GTL LNG facility, which has been offline since suffering an Iranian missile strike in March. That’s been offset to some degree by the ramp-up of LNG Canada, an area Shell’s decided to double down on, with the recently proposed $16.4bn acquisition of ARC resources. Given the even more complex-than-usual web of moving parts, markets will be paying particularly close attention to guidance for the second quarter and beyond.

Novo Nordisk is another big name to keep an eye out for this week. After previously holding the crown of Europe’s most valuable company, a string of disappointments has seen the valuation take a significant fall from grace. The launch of the Wegovy weight loss pill has been a bright spot, and so far, Eli Lilly’s competitor Foundayo doesn’t seem to be eroding Novo’s first-mover advantage. But the key question on investors’ lips is whether price reductions across its wider obesity and diabetes franchise have stimulated volume growth. That certainly was the case in Lilly’s results last week. Whether Novo’s followed suit sufficiently to return to the upgrades club remains to be seen.

US stock futures have edged up this morning. A robust first-quarter earnings season so far has seen the major Wall Street indices deliver double-digit returns over the last month, with, according to FactSet, the S&P 500 on course for its strongest quarterly earnings growth in over four years. Sector-wise, communications technology leads the way with blended earnings rising 53.2%.

Consumer stocks could prove to be the figurative fly in the ointment, but the key retailers aren’t on show until later in the month. Disney is one name to look out for this week. The Iran conflict shouldn’t have any meaningful effect on the viewing figures for Disney+ but commentary around the group’s theme parks and cruise liners should provide a steer on appetite for international travel and leisure experiences. The results also give new CEO Josh D’Amaro a chance to give some flavour of his plans to deliver value from company’s diverse business activities.

Shares in ARM holdings have been on a tear over the last month, receiving another small boost last week from Apple’s results, which showed good momentum for the iPhone. However, it’s the planned pivot towards selling chips rather than licensing designs that’s drawn much of the focus. The yet-to-be-launched AI-focussed AGI CPU targets a white-hot market, but it’s hard to see what ARM’s USP is here as NVIDIA enters the CPU race and hyperscalers look to increase the usage of bespoke solutions in their technology stacks.

Top-down drivers for the US outside of developments in the Middle East this week include consumer credit data, which is widely expected to show a pickup in Americans living on the never-never. Combine that with higher-for-longer rates, and the prospect of a credit bubble is likely to surface again. So far however, this is yet to have a major impact on the big lenders, with first-quarter credit quality at the US banks remaining broadly stable. Resilience in the job market is a key driver of credit health. With that in mind unemployment figures on Friday will also be closely watched, with consensus expecting a similar outcome to last month’s print of 4.3%.”

Because catastrophe risk is heavily skewed by tail events, the average will always be driven by a handful of very active years, leaving the majority of years falling below the mean.

What makes 2025 stand out is that losses were modest despite the backdrop of elevated hazard potential. Sea-surface temperatures in the North Atlantic have been among the warmest on record, while global mean temperatures continued to test the upper bounds of the satellite era. Exposure concentrations in hazard hotspots are higher than ever and rebuild costs continue to rise. The ingredients for large losses were present in 2025, yet the atmosphere chose not to combine them.

This situation is best described as transient meteorological luck: the temporary alignment of atmospheric and oceanic conditions that suppresses loss activity without altering the underlying risk. A quiet year does not signal that the underlying hazard or vulnerability has reduced. Rather, it represents a fortunate gap in natural catastrophes. When viewed through this lens, 2025 stands out as a moderate loss year in a high-risk situation.

While 2025 was the first year in a decade where no hurricanes made landfall in the United States, other places were not so fortunate. Hurricane Erin followed an eastward track well away from the Caribbean but still delivered heavy rain to Guadeloupe and Puerto Rico and high winds to the Bahamas. Hurricane Imelda passed directly over the northern coast of the Dominican Republic and Haiti and brought heavy rains and severe flooding to both countries. The storm also caused heavy rain and landslides in Cuba and strong winds (with gusts up to 100 miles per hour) over Bermuda.

The most consequential event of the past season was Hurricane Melissa, which made landfall over Jamaica on October 28 as a Category 5 storm. It was previously uncommon for major hurricanes to form in October, but as the North Atlantic has warmed, the environmental conditions that are favourable to hurricane formation are lasting later in the year. And that same warming also allows storms to become much stronger very quickly. Compared to the late 20th century, the number of storms undergoing “explosive” intensification (winds strengthening by almost 60 miles per hour in less than a day) has almost doubled.

Long-term the climate is warming, which continues to load the dice toward greater volatility and more complex extremes, from wildfire behaviour outside historical norms to record rainfall and the rapid intensification of tropical cyclones. Even if the financial tallies appear muted, the physical risk remains on an upward trajectory.

For example, future wildfire losses in California are likely to exceed what recent fire footprints suggest. Fires can now occur across more of the year, more people and assets are located in flammable areas and rebuilding is materially more expensive. With much of the state’s high-value wildland-urban interface yet to experience fire under these conditions, historical loss experience alone is no longer a reliable guide for pricing or portfolio steering.

Meanwhile, flood events in 2025 illustrate the accelerating trend of hydrological intensification driven by ongoing global warming. A preliminary global review shows extreme and often record-breaking rainfall on every continent, with many events producing exceptional sub-daily intensities. Crucially, severe flooding is increasingly occurring in locations not historically classified as high risk, prompting renewed scrutiny of exposure and preparedness.

Recent flooding illustrates how once-in-a-lifetime events are now occurring in rapid succession. The United States’ Texas Hill Country floods, with more than 500 millimetres of rainfall in two days, exemplified this shift, resulting in substantial loss of life and revealing gaps in emergency response and insurance coverage. Further evidence of this intensification has been seen in Pakistan, Spain and elsewhere. The persistence and clustering of such extremes align with trends clearly established in 2023 and 2024. Climate change is increasing rainfall intensity and expanding flood hazard footprints, while societal exposure continues to outpace preparedness.

Quiet years often breed a false sense of security. The 2006–2016 drought of major hurricane landfalls in the U.S. created an illusion of reduced risk. But the inevitable return of high-impact events in 2017 (including hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria) taught us that lucky streaks always end. As the reinsurance market softens, the temptation to chase premium can erode discipline, leading to the silent accumulation of risk. In this environment, strong scientific judgment, rigorous model evaluation and robust exposure management frameworks will be essential safeguards.

Now is the time to dig into the data. Leveraging research to develop bespoke views of risk, such as climate-conditioned event sets or vulnerability functions based on recent claims experience, allows cedents to distinguish portfolio resilience from temporary good fortune. Today, (re)insurers increasingly expect not only robust numbers from models, but also a transparent account of the science and limitations behind them.

Meteorological luck can delay the inevitable but does not offer lasting protection. The question is whether the industry uses this pause to relax or to prepare for when the pendulum inevitably swings back.

With nearly three quarters (74%) of employers worried that employees are not saving enough for retirement, there is a clear focus on helping more people stay engaged with long-term saving.

Employers are particularly focused on supporting younger workers and low earners, with more than three quarters (77%) concerned these groups are more exposed to financial pressures and may be more likely to step back from saving as costs rise.

This is reflected in expected behaviours, with one third (32%) saying younger employees are most likely to opt out of workplace pensions. Employers point to affordability as the main reason for opting out (38%), although understanding (24%) and perceived value (18%) also play a role, reinforcing the importance of clear, accessible communication.

Employers call for more support to improve workers’ financial wellbeing

More than four in five SME decision-makers (82%) say they feel a responsibility for employees’ financial wellbeing, even as three quarters (75%) say rising business costs limit how much they can increase pay.

The findings come as many employers identify gaps in pension understanding and engagement. Nearly six in ten (59%) say employees do not fully understand the value of their pension, while more than half (52%) are concerned employees are not engaged or getting the most out of the scheme available to them.

Nearly half of employers (45%) say clearer communication and education about pensions would improve engagement, while 40% highlight the importance of additional support for financial wellbeing and retirement planning.

Stuart Reid, Distribution Director at People’s Partnership, said: “Employers are clearly focused on how they can support their workforce, particularly younger and lower-paid workers who are more exposed to financial pressure. As many households face renewed pressure on day-to-day finances, helping people stay engaged with long-term saving has become even more important.

“What this research highlights is the importance of communication and support in helping employees engage with their pension. Where understanding is lower, simple and accessible guidance can play an important role in helping people make informed decisions about their long-term finances.

“Even in a challenging environment, workplace pensions remain a key part of long-term financial planning. Supporting employees to stay engaged with saving, even at modest levels, can make a meaningful difference over time.”

Apple’s long-awaited iPhone upgrade cycle is in full swing, and AI isn’t even part of the story yet. The headline numbers were strong, but the real message was in the guidance, which pointed to 14-17% revenue growth at the group level, against pre-results expectations closer to 9%, and even that comes with supply constraints clipping the wings a little. This is the power of Apple’s ecosystem in full view: even with an AI experience that has been more disappointment than differentiator, the brand still has enough pull to drag loyal consumers back into the upgrade cycle after years of stretching out their old devices. That brand power has bought Apple time, but loyalty won't last forever, and the next leg of the story now rests on whether John Ternus can turn AI from a weak spot into a reason to go out and grab the latest devices. Get it right, and the next few years should look decisively better than the last. Fail to deliver that spark, and this super cycle could start to look less like a new era and more like the final flourish of the old one.

NatWest has delivered the kind of update bank investors can work with in a nervous market - not flawless, but profitable, well-capitalised and backed by better guidance. The profit beat wasn’t really about a surge in income, but about cost discipline, lower litigation costs and strong capital generation doing the heavy lifting. That puts NatWest in a similar camp to some of the other banks this week, where the economic outlook is looking a little more fragile as Middle East tensions feed into oil, inflation, and rate uncertainty, but higher-for-longer rates are also providing a useful buffer. For investors, the message is reassuring. The loan book remains resilient, capital is a strength, and while impairments and weaker wealth balances are worth watching, there is enough here to support the shareholder returns story.

Gold is caught between two powerful forces. A weaker dollar is giving it support, but the prospect of higher-for-longer interest rates is stopping the rally from really catching fire. Bullion is holding above $4,600 an ounce after reports of Japanese currency intervention knocked the dollar, but the bigger backdrop is still the Middle East, where fading hopes of a US-Iran peace deal and a closed Strait of Hormuz are keeping energy supply fears firmly in play. If tensions stay high, gold’s safe-haven appeal may stay intact, but the rate story means this is not quite the one-way trade it might usually be in a geopolitical shock.”

Investing in technology for efficiency is necessary to address pressure on pensions spend; in turn technology is enabling capacity within professional trustee firms to be amplified and support conservative recruitment outlooks. The firms agree that even as technology improves efficiency, it doesn’t replace certain roles, especially those that come with skills like judgement.

AI adoption varies. Many firms have embedded AI in the management of schemes, but some use it only for back-office work. Others are proceeding cautiously and still testing pilot projects. Professional trustees are more likely to use AI for sole trustee appointments, where all the decision-makers have access to the same in-house tools.

Trustees are using AI to find information in document repositories. There was strong support that a complete document repository is one of the most important things to a sole trustee, giving a single source of information. AI can help to retrieve past decisions, determine benefits from the latest Deed of Amendment or check for potential blind spots in previous trustees’ decisions.

Some professional trustees are testing AI to summarise meeting packs. While a summary is not a substitute for reading advice papers, it can help to prioritise matters between schemes. Other firms use AI for taking minutes to free up time for support teams.

Many trustees say they use AI to ‘support’ trustee discretions. But they caution against over-reliance on AI, and note the need for judgement, particularly with the increasing complexity of member discretion cases.

Trustees acknowledge that AI has the potential to make an even bigger difference. If it’s adopted more widely and efficiently, it could enable professional trusteeship to keep growing strongly.

Trump has reportedly rejected Tehran’s plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and is doubling down on the US naval blockade of Iran’s ports. With oil storage limited, Iranian facilities may have to reduce production within days. There had been high hopes that a ceasefire would start to see prices at the pumps retreat, but amid this standoff, it seems that the only way is up for the cost of filling up. It’s also set to keep freight costs highly elevated, looks set to push packaging costs higher, given plastics are made from petrochemicals and could have a highly damaging effect on global food production. Urea shipments, used for fertiliser, are blocked and costs have rocketed for farmers around the world, who didn’t buy stocks in advance. The worry is that all these costs will be passed on through supply chains, pushing up the price of everyday goods, later in the year and into next year.

These are all concerns that central bankers meeting today will have front of mind. For now, a wait-and-see stance is expected to be adopted, with the Bank of England looking set to keep rates on hold, and the European Central Bank poised to take the same action. But inflation is already ramping higher, as higher forecourt prices show up in the data. But they will want to see signs that inflation is becoming embedded in the economy, through higher consumer prices, and sticky wage growth before they make a move on rates. Nevertheless, there are likely to be some calls around the table to get ahead of the curve and lift rates now. But with the economy looking set to lose early sparks of momentum as shoppers turn cautious and companies pause investment, demand is likely to be squeezed out anyway which could help keep a lid on inflation going forward. Nevertheless, financial markets are predicting that given the stalemate, and fears of a deteriorating situation will mean prices are passed on and are pricing in three interest rate hikes from the Bank of England. It’s a similar picture at the European Central Bank, which is expected to flag that a rate hike, as soon as June, could be on the cards, and two more are expected by the end of the year.

For now household goods giant Unilever, the maker of Cif and Colgate, has been spared significant fallout from the war in Iran. It posted better-than-expected growth for the first quarter, with sales volumes up 2.9%. But these numbers only captured a month of disruption due to the war, and some of the most onerous effects and increased costs haven’t yet filtered through. The production of plastic is becoming more expensive, a material the company relies on for its cupboard of cleaning and beauty brands. Energy and freight costs are also on the rise. With household budgets under the cosh, shoppers will already be looking to cut corners and could trade down to cheaper brands. Shares were flat in early trade, reflecting a more cautious outlook underlying sales growth at the lower end of its 4% to 6% range.

Problems were piling up for Volkswagen, even before the current energy crisis hit. Trump’s tariffs have had a damaging effect on sales, while cheap Chinese rivals have bitten hard into its EV business. Its first quarter results came with a big ouch, showing a 14% drop in profits. Now management has to steer the company through higher production costs, with energy prices soaring. It’s revved up a cost-cutting plan to become a leaner machine and is counting on its brand power in an aggressive product push in key markets, including China. With drivers’ budgets squeezed by the current crisis, upgrades are going to be a hard sell, but as fossil fuel prices stay elevated, it could prompt motorists to switch to EVs to save on the costs of filling up."

Mike Ambery, Retirement Savings Director at Standard Life plc said: “Today’s decision to hold interest rates at 3.75% was widely expected and reflects the careful balancing act the Bank of England now faces. Policymakers are trying to keep inflation under control at a time when the outlook for prices is highly uncertain, without putting unnecessary pressure on an economy that is showing only tentative signs of growth. Against the backdrop of heightened uncertainty linked to the conflict in the Middle East, this feels like a moment to hold steady and see how conditions develop before making any further moves. At the start of the year, many expected a fairly straightforward path to lower rates through 2026, but it’s safe to say things now look much less certain. Last week’s data showing inflation rising to 3.3% highlights the challenge ahead, with the initial impact of higher energy prices now starting to come through. Further pressure on household bills is expected in the months ahead, meaning the Bank will want stronger evidence that price rises aren’t becoming more entrenched before cutting rates. For savers, rates staying higher for longer can provide support, especially for those holding cash. However, the wider picture matters and inflation can continue to weaken the value of savings in real terms, even when headline rates look attractive. Those saving for the long term should consider tax-efficient options such as pensions and Stocks and Shares ISAs to help their money work harder alongside rising prices. For borrowers, the decision means relief is still likely to take time. Those on variable-rate mortgages or nearing the end of fixed-rate deals may continue to face increased costs for longer than hoped. Planning early, reviewing options regularly and understanding how repayments could change remains vital, particularly for households already managing stretched budgets.”

David Rees, Head of Global Economics, Schroders said: "Today sees no change to interest rates or the Bank's hawkish tone. With headline inflation rising to 3.3%, wage growth easing only gradually and services inflation still looking sticky, the risk is that this shock becomes more persistent. There is also a second-round risk later this year if the energy squeeze morphs into pressure on food prices. Higher fuel and shipping costs, plus renewed pressure on inputs such as fertiliser, could lift grocery inflation with a lag. The risk of persistently higher inflation, along with speculation about political change after the local elections, has lifted gilt yields to near 20-year highs. Even so, the bar for hikes remains high. With some slack emerging in the labour market and growth likely to weaken if disruption drags on, we doubt the Bank will tighten unless economic activity stays strong enough to absorb it."

Companies that actively manage these risks are better positioned to gain a competitive edge. When asked about the positive outcomes organizations realized by successfully managing and mitigating people risks, 40% of respondents said they increased workforce productivity and efficiency, and 36% said they achieved faster progress on strategic initiatives such as AI adoption.

“People risks cannot be secondary concerns, as they impact the health and well-being of the workforce and the business,” said Hervé Balzano, Mercer’s President of Health and Benefits and Mercer Marsh Benefits’ Global Leader. “In 2026, resilience depends on how well organizations invest in their people: building the right skills, supporting health and financial security, and redesigning work so humans and technology can perform at their best together.”

“AI will only deliver value when organizations rethink how work is done and how people are supported,” commented Ravin Jesuthasan, Mercer’s Global Leader for Transformation Services. “Treating AI as a simple add-on to existing work processes creates real risk and inefficiency. The organizations pulling ahead are those redesigning work, upskilling their workforce, addressing AI anxiety and pairing human judgment with machine capability.”

At the same time, the report identifies inadequate leadership skills as the single biggest risk multiplier, triggering or worsening issues like mental health deterioration and unsafe working conditions, which put productivity, performance, and reputation at risk.

Traditional leadership models are proving ill-suited for today’s volatile environment. Mercer’s recent 2026 Global Talent Trends report confirms that executives’ and employees’ views on effective leadership are evolving; employees place increasing value on empathy, communication, and honesty while executives emphasize risk awareness, strategic execution, and accountability in leaders. This misalignment on what constitutes good leadership threatens to erode cultures, employees’ sense of satisfaction, and organizational performance.

Financial strain also extends to employee health and well-being. Employees continue to delay care due to affordability and access issues, quietly eroding workforce resilience. HR and Risk professionals expect the situation to worsen, with more than half (58%) saying health and benefits costs are almost certain or likely to increase.

“Despite concerns about rising benefit costs and growing mental health challenges, HR and Risk professionals are deprioritizing health-related risks as they are overshadowed by more immediate concerns,” shared Amy Laverock, Mercer Marsh Benefits’ Global Advisory Specialties Leader. “This highlights a concerning disconnect. Organizations are attempting to separate health outcomes from risk management, when they are inherently intertwined.”

“Forward-looking organizations recognize that their workforce is not just a source of risk, but their greatest strategic asset,” Ms. Laverock added. “Those that act now — investing in leadership and technology skills, as well as employee health and financial security — will be best equipped to turn uncertainty into advantage.”

Marsh 2026 People Risks report

The benchmark, Brent crude, is still hovering around the painful level of $111 a barrel, a three-week high, and the big worry is that as companies have to shoulder elevated bills for longer, they’ll have little choice but to pass on the costs through higher prices, while employees will clamour for higher wages as inflation rises.

Although this week, with crucial central bank meetings taking place, policymakers are set to stay wary and are likely to press pause, the expectation is that the only way is up for interest rates as the year wears on and vital supplies of commodities remain constrained.

Financial markets are now pricing in as many as three rate hikes from the Bank of England. It’s a marked difference from last week’s expectations of just one hike. As a result, fresh repricing of mortgage deals higher is looking more likely. There had been some respite, with offers lower than the peak they reached in mid-April, but they could well move higher again given the volatile changes in market expectations.

Worry about the expected ramp-up in rates is showing up in the bond markets. Gilt yields have risen above 5%, levels not seen since the financial crisis, which means it’s becoming more expensive to finance UK government debt. At a time when calls are rising for extra help to support cash-strapped households and businesses, rising borrowing costs mean the Treasury is seeing any wiggle room for additional support rapidly evaporate, with more revenue set to be absorbed by debt interest payments. This means the government may be forced to make increasingly difficult choices – bring in higher taxes or tighten public spending elsewhere.

With the Middle East conflict still fraught with uncertainty, it's keeping travellers super cautious. This has come through loud and clear in the trading update from Jet 2 this morning. Although there's no dramatic drop off in demand so far, it seems holidaymakers are more wary, holding off on booking until closer to departure. This shift is squeezing forward visibility just as the all-important summer season approaches, making it harder for Jet2 to read the runway ahead with confidence. However, Jet 2 is buffered against the turbulence given that it has a robust fuel hedging strategy in place and its hefty cash pile provides a reassuring safety net. Nevertheless, the longer the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, the greater the risk that pressure builds, particularly as Jet2 looks to recoup the £11 million in startup costs tied to its new base at London Gatwick Airport.

Wall Street looks set for a higher open as investors await a raft of big tech earnings, which are expected to show strong demand for AI technology. However, with capacity constrained, there’s an ongoing ramp-up in capital expenditure to meet the huge appetite for infrastructure to support advances in artificial intelligence. How big the mismatch is between growth in spending and growth in revenue looks set to determine investor sentiment, given the mega valuations of the tech giants and their weight on indices.

The longer the Strait of Hormuz continues to be blocked, the greater the uncertainty about the summer travel season.

Jet2 plc expects its financial year 2026 operating profit to be between £435 million and £440 million, aligning with market expectations, despite £11 million in startup costs for its new London Gatwick base. The company maintains a strong balance sheet with £3.3 billion in total cash and £2.0 billion in net cash as of March 31, 2026, having returned £363.0 million to shareholders. For the upcoming financial year 2027, Jet2 has increased its Summer 2026 capacity by 7.7% to 19.9 million seats, with passenger bookings up 6.2%, though geopolitical uncertainty is impacting visibility for the peak summer season. The airline has a strong fuel hedge position, with 87% of its summer requirement hedged at an average price of $707 per metric tonne.”

Following its recent consultation on an updated CDC code of practice, the code has today been laid in Parliament and is expected to come into force in mid-October. Multi-employer schemes could be operating in early 2027.

The new regulations and revised code will allow providers to offer their scheme to multiple unconnected employers. They will need to apply to TPR for authorisation before taking on business.

The revised code sets out TPR’s expectations of CDC schemes, the criteria for their authorisation, and how TPR will use its powers in this market.

TPR’s Executive Director of Strategy, Policy and Analysis, Richard Knox, said: “Our goal is to help transform a savings system into a pension model that offers people reliable, sustainable income throughout retirement.

“CDC schemes can help to deliver that future. We are already in discussions with several potential entrants to this market. I encourage others considering offering a CDC service to speak with our innovation service.”

TPR is also publishing its response to the 29 responses it received to its consultation on the code.

Typically, savers can withdraw up to 25% of their pension pot tax-free, however there were rumours that the Government was considering restricting that allowance in both the Autumn Budget 2024 and 2025 as it looked to increase its tax revenues.

In the period Q4 2024-Q3 2025, savers took £3.9 billion of one-off cash payments from their pension pots. This marked an increase of 29%, or £868 million, compared to the previous 12 months in 2023/24 and an increase of 81%, or £1.7 billion, compared to the same period in 2022/23.

There are also clear spikes evident in both quarters near the Autumn Budget 2024 with lump sum access reaching record levels of £1.0bn in both Q3 2024 and Q4 2024 around the Chancellor’s statement on 30 October 2024.

Lump sum access then dropped back in the next two quarters before seeing another spike of £990 million in Q3 2025 before the Autumn Budget held on 26 November of that year.

The trend of increasing lump sum access is expected as more adults with DC pensions reach Normal Minimum Pension Age. However, the timing of recent spikes suggests that saver behaviour is being influenced by policy uncertainty and speculation around potential changes to the tax treatment of pension lump sums.

Kelly Parsons, Head of DC Proposition at Broadstone, commented: “This data highlights just how sensitive pension savers can be to speculation around tax and policy changes. It demonstrates the damaging and long-lasting negative impacts that rumour-mongering around pension policy and fiscal events can cause.

“Taking money from a pension is a complex and irreversible decision so it is critical that people aren’t making these important choices based on rumour or without full awareness of the consequences. That’s where better financial education and clearer guidance really do matter.

“As the DC market grows, employers will have a bigger role to play in supporting people as they navigate these decisions. That means clearer communication and making sure staff can access the right guidance and support, so they’re not just reacting to headlines but making choices that genuinely support their long-term retirement outcomes.”

Shah has worked at the PRA for the past decade and has held a number of leadership roles in the PRA’s supervision directorate including chief actuary for general insurance between 2021 and 2023 and most recently as Head of London Market supervision. During this time, he contributed to a number of significant developments in the PRA’s supervision and policy approach to the insurance sector.

Lorraine Harfitt, chief executive officer at Asta, said: “We are delighted to be able to welcome Nylesh to the AMA board and this is a significant appointment for us. Nylesh brings a wealth of insight and experience from his time spent within the industry and the PRA and his appointment will further strengthen our board and support the continued growth and evolution of Asta’s Lloyd’s platform. The deep understanding he has of the Lloyd’s market and the regulatory environment in which we operate will be hugely beneficial to Asta and our clients as we continue to expand our capabilities and offerings. We look forward to the perspective and expertise Nylesh will contribute as we pursue the next phase of our development.”

As crude prices ramp up in the void of hope about a deal being reached anytime soon, it’s sent fresh worries cascading through equity markets. Indices in Asia closed in the red, as nations highly dependent on energy imports count the cost. London’s FTSE 100 has opened flat in early trade, with a fresh climb in the share prices of energy giants helping to offset the wary mood.

While big winners from the energy crunch have clearly been the oil and gas giants. BP has cleaned up with its results exceeding forecasts, but there’s complexity to navigate ahead. Profits for the first quarter of the year have boomed, more than doubling, as crude prices soared in March. Its trading division saw ‘exceptional’ profits which boosted overall earnings to $3.2 billion for the quarter, up from $1.38 the same time last year. The division has clearly thrived in an environment of wild swings, leading to high velocity trading. With profits coming in higher than expected alongside the fresh ramp-up in crude prices today, it’s put fresh wind in the sails of the share price, which is up around 22% since the conflict began.

But BP is not immune to the damage and destruction wreaked on facilities across the Gulf, even with the oil prices back at scorching levels. The second quarter is set to be weaker due to the disruption. The Rumaila oil field in Southern Iraq which it operates as part of a partnership was first closed as a precaution and then struck by drones. Then there’s the overall disruption expected as cargoes mount up and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. So, while volatile energy prices are set to continue to benefit the trading division, there’s going to be a tale of repair and maintenance costs to bear going forward. There’s also still the huge uncertainty surrounding future transit through the Strait of Hormuz, with potential tolls still on the table, that’s once the tankers are able to navigate mines planted in the waterway.

Central bankers are keeping a close eye on volatile prices and the impact on economies. The Bank of Japan is in tune with the mood music expected from other central banks this week and has kept interest rates on hold. As policymakers assess the heat seeping into the economy through higher energy costs, and the counteracting force of potential depressed demand as consumers and companies batten down the hatches, it’s still a wait-and-see game right now.”

Ends

Our scenario probabilities reflect these changes. The war and energy shock raised the tail risks on both sides – though by more on the "too hot" front – and so the path towards resolution sees us reduce these, with “warming up” remaining our modal expectation.

Source: Schroders Global Unconstrained Fixed Income team 20 April 2026, for illustrative purposes only. The “‘too cold”’ scenario would see the Federal Reserve (Fed) cutting 4+ times in 2026, 2-3 cuts for “‘just right”’, while in “‘warming up”’ the Fed is only cutting once or is on hold. Finally, in a “‘too hot”’ scenario the Fed is moving back towards hikes in 2026, because inflation is becoming problematic again.

For sure, consumer real incomes (incomes adjusted for inflation) will be dented by rising oil prices. We expect a peak impact on inflation of about 1% above the previous baseline, but other factors are offsetting this. The consumer elements of One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB) are kicking in, with income tax refunds largely offsetting the drag of higher gasoline prices at the pump. These opposing forces means in aggregate US consumers will end up in largely the same place.

A reduction in customs duties over recent months, in part due to the Supreme Court ruling against IEEPA tariffs (those tariffs implemented by use of the Internation Emergency Economic Powers Act) should also lead – at a minimum – to a slower rise in goods prices. Again, supporting real incomes.

We expect that the impact on the eurozone economy will be noticeable, but not recessionary. Like the US, this is partly a function of a solid starting point with the region’s cyclical dynamics providing a resilience to the economy.

The European Central Bank (ECB) has so far taken a non-committal approach, but will be attentive to rising headline inflation. We expect them to be among the more hawkish of central banks, and while this doesn't guarantee rate increases or rule out eurozone bond rallies if energy prices drop sharply, overall, we find better risk-reward elsewhere, such as in Canada, Australia, and the UK.

In asset allocation, we move back to a negative stance on both high yield and investment grade credit given unattractive valuations. Having moved wider during March, spreads (the premium over government bonds) have been quick to retrace back to levels similar to the onset of the Iranian conflict. For similar reasons, we downgrade US agency mortgage-backed securities back to a neutral score. Scores in emerging market debt are positive.

Except in case of imminent shocks with clear and material transmission channels to the global macroeconomic and political environment. Most geopolitical headlines do not fall in this category of imminent shocks. For investors, it is therefore the longer-term structural and durable shifts, rather than individual events, that matter most in shaping sustained market outcomes. We explore how geopolitical dynamics are evolving, what they may mean for markets and how wealth portfolios can be positioned through periods of heightened uncertainty.

Taken together, however, measures such as the World Uncertainty Index (figure 1), which has risen to its highest level since the global financial crisis, highlight how the cumulative effect of these tensions is creating a more unsettled backdrop for policymakers, businesses and investors alike.

Figure 1: World Uncertainty Index

Behind the scenes, there are signs of a more assertive, resource-focused approach from major powers, particularly the US. Recent actions point to a growing emphasis on securing critical minerals, reshaping trade flows and reinforcing political alliances that support national strategic priorities. This shift, sometimes described as a modern form of mercantilism, represents an important long-term trend. It suggests a world in which uncertainty is structurally higher than it was for much of the post-financial-crisis period, even if individual events matter less.

Importantly, isolated geopolitical events do not need to trigger an immediate market shock to have lasting relevance. Over time, repeated episodes can contribute to slower-moving shifts in policy, behaviour and capital allocation. These behind-the-scenes changes are often where geopolitics has its most lasting influence on markets.

These examples underline that geopolitics tends to affect markets less through abrupt shocks and more through gradual changes in policy, incentives and investor behaviour. This environment also creates slowly accruing risks and opportunities, which can be incorporated and managed within well-diversified portfolios through disciplined investment frameworks.

Disclaimer

Towers Watson Limited (trading as Willis Towers Watson) (Head Office: Watson House, London Road, Reigate, Surrey, RH2 9PQ) is authorised and regulated in the United Kingdom by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA Register Firm Reference Number 432886, refer to the FCA register for further details) and incorporated in England and Wales with Company Number 05379716.This material is based on information available to WTW at the date of this material or other date indicated and takes no account of developments after that date. In preparing this material we have relied upon data supplied to us or our affiliates by third parties. Whilst reasonable care has been taken to gauge the reliability of this data, we provide no guarantee as to the accuracy or completeness of this data and WTW and its affiliates and their respective directors, officers and employees accept no responsibility and will not be liable for any errors, omissions or misrepresentations by any third party in respect of such data. This material may not be reproduced or distributed to any other party, whether in whole or in part, without WTW's prior written permission, except as may be required by law. In the absence of our express written agreement to the contrary, WTW and its affiliates and their respective directors, officers and employees accept no responsibility and will not be liable. This material is intended for investors with long-term investment time horizons. The value of all investments and the income from them can go down as well as up. This means you could get back less than you invested. Past performance does not predict future returns.

Risk warnings

This document is based on information available to Willis Towers Watson at the date of issue, and takes no account of subsequent developmentsTowers Watson Limited has approved this document for issue to recipients categorised as Professional Clients onlyThis material is intended for investors with long-term investment time horizonsThe value of all investments and the income from them can go down as well as up. This means you could get back less than you investedPast performance does not predict future returnsExpected performance does not predict future returnsTax treatment depends on the individual circumstances of each investor and may be subject to change in the futureThe securities and derivatives investment activities which the Fund engages in may be speculative and involve a substantial risk of lossThe fund may be exposed to credit and/or default risk of issuers of debt securities that may be held within the fundThe issuers of any bonds within the fund may default or not be able to pay the bond income as expectedIf the fund is denominated in a currency other than your home currency, movements in exchange rates may, if not hedged, have a significant impact on the value of (and income from) your investmentShares/units in the fund may become illiquid and investors may redeem their investments only as stated in the fund's prospectus

Secured a guilty plea from Geordie Shore’s Aaron Chalmers for illegal promotions on social media. Criminal proceedings have been commenced against a further 2 individuals for similar offences.

Sent 4 targeted warning letters to individuals suspected of engaging in unauthorised financial promotions.

Issued 34 warning alerts against unauthorised firms or individuals, and updated an additional 14 warnings.

Made 120 account takedown requests to social media platforms hosting illegal finfluencer content. Within these accounts, the FCA identified 1,267 illegal financial adverts, which reached a minimum of 2,338,372 UK accounts. 66% of these adverts were from firms or individuals already on the FCA's Warning List.

The financial regulator is calling for social media platforms to step up and play a more proactive role in stopping illegal financial promotions at source. Social media platforms are not doing enough to uphold their own policies to block illegal content.

Steve Smart, executive director of enforcement and market oversight at the FCA, said: 'This collective push with international partners is vital in helping to protect millions of consumers from harm. We will only make real progress in the fight against financial crime if every part of the system plays its role - including social media firms.'

The FCA's latest activity follows a previous international week of action with 8 other regulators in June 2025.

Consumers are encouraged to use the FCA Firm Checker to confirm if a firm is authorised for the services being offered and reduce their chances of falling victim to a scam. The tool also shows unauthorised firms and individuals on the FCA’s Warning List to avoid.

The Federal Reserve is also overwhelmingly expected to keep rates unchanged at the meeting this week which could also be Jerome Powell’s last as Fed chair. This is because a criminal investigation into Powell has been dropped, which is set to ease the path of the confirmation of Kevin Warsh, to replace him. While there had been worries he might go soft on inflation, a Fed led by Kevin Warsh is more likely to herald a shift in tone rather than a sudden policy jolt. He has recently signalled support for lower interest rates, but such a move would be likely to be delayed by worries about stubborn inflation and hot energy prices. His belief that AI could boost productivity and ease price pressures may open the door to looser policy over time. However, with decisions shaped by the broader committee and political pressure lingering, change is expected to be gradual, with credibility and independence firmly in focus.

Amazon has powerlifted its way to a record valuation, as AWS has flexed its muscle once again. Investors have cheered deals struck with Meta and Anthropic to bulk up their computing capacity. With the demand locked in over multiple years, it’s providing reassurance that the huge capital expenditure outlay will keep bearing fruit. There will be a close eye trained on margins in these results to assess if returns will be on track. The circular nature of some of the deals being struck in the AI world has raised eyebrows. AWS is investing £5 billion into Anthropic, with another $20 billion expected over time, while Anthropic pledges to spend $100 billion on AWS products and services. While the AI juggernaut is powering ahead and underlying demand looks so strong, given its constrained by capacity and not demand, such an ecosystem appears robust. But if growth disappoints in the future or if market share shifts, such circular relationships could start to see cracks appear and become more fragile. Amazon’s huge e-commerce arm is expected to continue to show improved profitability and any update on further automation progress is likely to be well received. While Amazon’s growing army of robots does not bode well for some human warehouse workers, its set to stay the direction of travel, and boost the company’s aim for further geographical expansion.

Apple enters the ring this week with a strong recent run, supported by a healthier iPhone upgrade cycle demonstrating its superstar brand power. However, the announcement that Tim Cook will step aside, handing over to John Ternus, marks a significant changing of the guard, and investors look set to stay cautious as the change at the top takes place. John Ternus had been clearly in the frame for some time, as part of a long-term succession strategy, and given he has experience in every corner of the business, there is hope he won't stumble on the competitive road ahead for tech.

Apple has taken a softly-softly approach to the AI revolution which seems to be more in tune with many consumer and company attitudes so far. But as rapid advancements evolve elsewhere, Apple does not want to be left behind, and there will be keen interest in any developments with partners to help it deliver AI services, like Google and OpenAI and its latest acquisition - Q.AI

Meta results are likely to show that AI is continuing to support its advertising business by improving targeting and engagement. That’s been helping drive stronger revenues, but investors also want to see discipline as well as the company gunning for growth. The backdrop of plans to cut around 10% of its workforce, alongside further layoffs announced this week, highlights the extent of the restructuring underway as Meta tries to stay in the top pack leading the AI race while keeping a tighter rein on costs.

Microsoft is also stepping between the ropes and is in the limelight this week facing pressure to justify its heavy AI investment. There is still rampant demand for Azure cloud computing services, which clocked growth of 38% at the last count but that still wasn’t enough to stop a big wobble. The 66% uplift on capital expenditure unnerved investors in January and although the stock has rebounded 16% on the month, it’s not yet clawed back the year’s losses. Appetite for cloud infrastructure is voracious, but Microsoft can’t keep up with demand, so although spending is ramped up, growth isn’t yet keeping pace with expectations. But as more infrastructure comes online, there are hopes that it will accelerate revenues.

Investors will also be watching Alphabet's results closely to work out how much stamina it has as the AI fight intensifies. Cloud growth is beating expectations at the last count, but there appears to be concerns mounting that rivals like Anthropic are landing more punches by offering more attractive tools, especially for coding, to businesses than Gemini currently offers. To stay fleet of foot, investment in AI infrastructure is being ramped up significantly, and while it’s necessary to keep pace, it risks taking a toll on cash flow and margins. So, investors will be keen to find out if that spending will turn into top-line growth, or whether returns look likely to take longer to come through. Google Search is still Alphabet’s champion, and the integration of AI tools, including enhanced results and overviews, has so far helped maintain engagement and advertising strength. This round of results will show whether that strategy is holding firm as new AI-driven challengers look to chip away at its dominance here as well.”

Drought is also emerging as a major driver of secondary perils, contributing $13 billion in economic losses in 2025 alone. The peril is also responsible for far-reaching secondary impacts across the economy, particularly as energy demand continues to rise.

These dynamics are evident globally and are particularly pronounced in the U.S. Aon’s Climate Risk Monitor projects that U.S. pluvial (rainfall-driven) flood risk could increase by about 12 percent under a medium-emissions scenario and roughly 19 percent under a high-emissions scenario by mid-century. In 2025, the U.S. recorded 14 separate 24-hour periods with rainfall amounts equivalent to a 1-in-1,000-year flood – the highest count since 2002 – alongside catastrophic flash flooding in Central Texas and extensive inundation along the Mississippi Valley.

Michal Lorinc, head of catastrophe insight for Aon, said: “Flood has become an increasingly impactful natural hazard over the past three decades, and in response Aon has have developed a wide range of innovative products and coverages to help our clients recover faster and more fully from flood events. Catastrophe modelling is also an area in which we continue to make significant investment, helping to bring clarity to our clients’ flood exposures and thereby aiming to affect better business decisions.”

Recent experience also illustrates the breadth of flood risk globally. Flooding drove China’s highest loss event in 2025, causing an estimated $14 billion in damage, while forward-looking Climate Risk Monitor projections suggest that other regions, including much of Africa, could face increasing exposure to extreme precipitation and flash flooding.

For policymakers, the CCI report findings highlight the scale of protection gaps and the importance of re-examining resilience strategies. In the U.S., National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) data show that in counties receiving NFIP payouts for 2025 flood events, only 2.6 percent of residential structures were covered by NFIP flood policies. At the same time, the number of private home flood policies and the premium paid for these policies more than doubled between 2020 and 2024.

This evolving public-private mix presents both a challenge and an opportunity. Regulatory frameworks, land-use planning, building codes and investment in nature-based infrastructure will all be critical to managing the societal impacts of more frequent flooding, deeper drought and more destructive cyclones.

Andy Neal, managing director of public sector partnership for Aon, said: “Political uncertainty compounds the volatility of natural disasters. For policymakers, coordination between the public and private sectors will be increasingly important to expand coverage, invest in resilient infrastructure and use risk insights to inform planning decisions. Those that act early are better positioned to protect communities and economies over the long term.”

To support both risk transfer and risk reduction, the CCI report highlights the role of innovative mitigation approaches. Nature-based solutions – such as wetlands and coastal ecosystems combined with traditional defenses – and novel concepts like amphibious housing, which are able to rise on flood waters, are gaining attention as cost-effective ways to reduce losses before they occur.

Based on the identified natural catastrophe trends, Aon believes stakeholders that proactively integrate forward-looking climate analytics into planning, underwriting, policy design and investment decisions will be better positioned to navigate a future defined by increased flooding, more severe drought and fewer but more damaging cyclones. The firm is advising (re)insurer clients to review exposure concentrations and expand the use of climate-conditioned scenarios in underwriting, product innovation and capital strategy.

Liz Henderson, head of climate risk advisory for Aon, said: “Climate variability is increasingly influencing insurers’ business models, and these natural catastrophe trends point to a more structurally complex risk landscape where traditional views of risk, based only on historical experience, are no longer sufficient.”

Aon’s 2026 Climate and Catastrophe Insight report is available here

For insights on the work of Aon’s Climate Risk Advisory team, click here

The world’s 12 major protection and indemnity clubs, which collectively underwrite the majority of ocean-going vessels, moved rapidly to cancel war cover across the Gulf, while Lloyd’s Joint War Committee redesignated the entire region as a conflict zone. Private capacity withdrew at a pace that neither shipowners nor cargo interests had anticipated, exposing the degree to which the market had treated the disruption as a remote tail risk rather than a credible scenario requiring dedicated underwriting infrastructure.

The sector had entered 2026 in robust financial health, with reinsurance capital at historically elevated levels following several consecutive years of strong underwriting returns. Risk capacity for geopolitically-exposed lines had become heavily centralised in a small number of markets and institutions. When those institutions moved simultaneously, the gap they left was immediate and substantial for energy and logistics, as well as the global economy.

Global specialty insurance – including marine, political risk and trade credit – is expected to triple by the mid-2030s as geopolitical events grow more frequent and complex.

The sector’s historical experience of foreign ownership demonstrates its capacity to integrate with international capital structures. Macroeconomic stabilisation, including a sovereign rating upgrade from Moody’s, has improved the conditions for renewed foreign engagement.

Geographically, Turkey sits at the intersection of the trade corridors most directly affected by the Hormuz disruption. Marine, cargo, political risk and trade credit are precisely those for which Turkey’s location and regional relationships provide a natural underwriting vantage point.

The broader African insurance market is approaching the current period of volatility from a position of relative resilience, with well-capitalised local institutions expected to respond to the changed pricing environment through more disciplined underwriting rather than withdrawal. The cross-border regulatory frameworks taking shape across East Africa, including financial technology passporting arrangements between Kenya and Rwanda, are creating the financial integration infrastructure on which a deeper regional insurance market can be constructed.

By exposing the fragility of concentrated risk capacity, geopolitical volatility has created both the demand and the incentive for a geographically more evenly distributed global insurance architecture and that markets like Turkey and Kenya are well positioned to take advantage of as a result.

The Guidance focuses on the practical realities of delivery, highlighting the scale of change required across systems, processes and governance frameworks. It emphasises administration will play a critical role in determining whether policy ambitions translate into better outcomes for savers.

With master trusts expected to implement default retirement solutions from 2027, administrators have a limited window to design, build and deliver new capabilities. These include member segmentation, data collection, default decision-making, pension payroll, tax processing and ongoing governance.

PASA also identifies a number of key risks, including system strain, data challenges, increased complexity and the need to support vulnerable or disengaged members more effectively.

Jessica Rigby, Chair of the PASA DC Working Group, said: “Default retirement represents a fundamental shift in how pension schemes support savers at retirement. The direction of travel is clear, with a renewed focus on delivering sustainable income rather than simply providing access to pension savings.

While the policy intent is strongly supported, delivery will be complex. Many existing administrative processes were not designed for ongoing retirement journeys or income provision, and significant change will be required across systems, data and operations.

This Guidance focuses on the practical steps needed to prepare. Early engagement between trustees, administrators and providers will be critical to ensure solutions are deliverable, scalable and aligned with member needs. Without this, there is a real risk operational challenges could constrain what can be achieved in practice.”

David Fairs, PASA Chair, added: “These reforms reinforce the growing recognition of administration as a critical enabler of good member outcomes. Administration is no longer a back-office function, it sits at the centre of delivering policy intent and supporting savers through increasingly complex retirement journeys.

The industry has an opportunity to demonstrate its strategic value, but this requires realistic planning, investment and collaboration. Administrators must be involved early in decision making to ensure proposed solutions can be delivered effectively and sustainably.

This paper provides a timely reminder that success will not be judged by design alone, but by how well these changes work in practice for savers.”

The Guidance outlines a series of actions administrators should take now, including assessing system readiness, engaging with trustees, exploring delivery models and strengthening communication strategies.

PASA will continue to work with industry stakeholders to support the development of practical, deliverable solutions as further regulatory detail emerges.

Brent crude is up around 20% on the week and is trading around the hot level of $105 a barrel, as any hopes of an immediate easing of the crisis are shattered. President Trump has stressed he’s in no rush to end the war, and with the ceasefire extended for another three weeks, there’s set to be fresh financial pain ahead as key shipments from the region remain blocked. That is set to keep costs elevated for a vast array of commodities, from oil and gas to fertiliser and helium, which are vital for electronics manufacturing.

The FTSE 100 is set for a fresh downbeat start to trading as investors assess the repercussions for the multinationals listed on the index, and companies whose fortunes are tied to the health of the UK economy.

There was panic at the pumps in March, as escalating prices saw motorists race to fill up their tanks to try to save cash and build reserves in case of shortages. A surge in purchases on forecourts was the biggest driver behind the uplift in monthly retail sales. Automotive fuel sales shot up by 6.1%, helping push overall retail sales for the month up by 0.7%, following a fall of 0.6% in February. But strip out fuel sales and total retail sales only grew by 0.2% on the month. Clothing sales did improve thanks to the sunnier weather, but the uplift looks set to be short-lived. It’s set to be tough going ahead for retailers as fuel prices stay elevated and consumers brace for other bill increases, meaning they are likely to tighten their purse strings in the months to come.

Tech has again been the focus on Wall Street, where indices have hit fresh records this week. Investors appear to be clinging to hopes that worst-case scenarios won’t emerge in the Middle East. Strong earnings have lifted sentiment, but there’s also an underlying wave of enthusiasm for AI-focused stocks. Intel provided a lot of cheer after posting a massive revenue beat, showing it is well on the road to recovery. It reported revenue of $13.6 billion - a 7% increase from the same quarter a year earlier.

There’s a shift in AI trends, with demand for digital agents specialised in taking on tasks independently proving lucrative for Intel’s chips, in particular its high-performance central processing units. Intel is demonstrating that it is well positioned to benefit from fresh waves of infrastructure spending, as companies ringfence budgets to ensure they are not left behind by AI developments.''

But connection is just the beginning. Once a scheme is connected it must be able to find dashboard users in its records and return recent and accurate information to them about the value of their pensions.

In August 2025, we started reaching out to the largest occupational pension schemes to assess their data preparations. Together, they cover over 80% of all occupational pension records in scope. These schemes demonstrated a strong focus on data, and we identified many examples of good practice, though there remains some inconsistency in approach and progress.

Today we publish a report into the findings of this engagement. This highlights that:

Most large schemes are already connected and have increased their focus on data.

Personal data work is ongoing – many schemes are still improving the quality of the data used to identify dashboard users, putting in place processes to resolve ‘possible’ matches (where a dashboard user may be a member but this needs confirming), and processes to review and refine their matching criteria.

Value data preparations lag behind personal data, with significant work still required to ensure information sent to members is accurate, up-to-date and dashboard-ready.

Data quality controls exist but must mature, with schemes needing to embed data improvement, monitoring and assurance into business-as-usual activity rather than treating it as a one-off exercise. High-quality data underpins good member outcomes, not just dashboard compliance – it is fundamental to running a scheme well.

We have also updated our dashboards guidance. The changes highlight good practice, the progress made by MaPS on the digital architecture and provide clarity on areas we often asked about. We now provide two checklists to help schemes prepare for dashboards: one for schemes which are still working to connect, and one for schemes which are already connected.

For many large schemes, preparation was less advanced on value data than personal data. Only a few schemes had received a specific value readiness report from their providers.

Many schemes do not hold recent data for members who don’t receive annual statements and are working to revalue these so they can then focus on a small number of complex cases that will need to be calculated ‘on demand’ (when that member uses a dashboard). Schemes will need to make sure they agree with their administrators the processes for calculating values on demand within the statutory timescales.

Defined benefit (DB) and hybrid schemes are most likely to have out of date value data, so next month we will reach out to a sample of these schemes to understand how they are preparing value data.

Early feedback has been positive, but testing is also throwing up issues which MaPS, working with industry, can resolve. These range from technical problems which means sometimes data isn’t flowing through from schemes to the dashboard as it should, to dashboards users being unsure of how to interpret the information they are shown.

This testing phase is important to make sure dashboards can fulfil their potential in helping people to plan and save for retirement. But for schemes, this phase is also an opportunity to test data and operations in a live environment with real users, but at lower volumes. Schemes can use testing to understand:

MaPS will continue to share insights from user testing through their website and newsletters, and we encourage schemes to keep up to date with these.

If schemes aren’t connected by 31 October 2026, they can expect to hear from us. Where we see wilful or reckless non-compliance, we will take a robust enforcement approach.

We call on schemes to keep up the good work. The public are counting on you to help them plan and save for a secure retirement.

The benchmark, Brent Crude has jumped to trade around $103 a barrel, reflecting concern about the lack of prospects for shipments from the region to resume any time soon. Renewed attacks on tankers have heightened concerns about just how complex this situation will be to resolve. The FTSE 100 has opened lower in early trade as investors turn skittish again about the effects on supply chains, input costs and demand in key markets. European indices are sharply lower, following falls in Asia and Wall Street looks set for a stumble in early trade.

The war has thrown up clouds of uncertainty for J Sainsbury, as cost pressures threaten to mount and shoppers become more cautious. It’s the latest retailer to warn about an unpredictable outlook, and so it’s adjusted its guidance on profits for the year. It previously estimated underlying operating profits would come in around £1 billion or more and now that’s changed to between £975 million and £1.075 billion. The update unnerved investors with J Sainsbury one of the biggest fallers in early trade.

Its decision to allocate more space to food seems a shrewd move in the current climate, given that spending on non-essential items is already showing signs of weakening. Clothing sales were already dented in the second half by unhelpful weather patterns, and with customers tightening their belts, there’s likely to be fewer wardrobe updates for this summer. Marketing drives to demonstrate value for money are likely to increase in the supermarket sector, with competition set to mount. Although for now sharp food price rises have been avoided, with fertiliser shipments blocked from the Middle East there are concerns that shopping baskets will become pricier and a hunt for bargains is set to intensify.

The latest snapshot of the UK public finances is encouraging but scratch below the surface and the picture still remains fragile. Borrowing for March came in £1.4 billion lower than a year earlier and the lowest for the month since 2022. Given that it indicates some more stabilisation in the government finances, helped by a stronger-than-expected inflow of revenues, it will come as welcome relief for Chancellor Rachel Reeves.

However, much of this money flowing in is due to the bigger tax take, a burden shouldered particularly by businesses. The £3.5 billion surge in compulsory social contributions, driven by higher employer National Insurance contributions, is doing much of the heavy lifting. While this boosts Treasury coffers in the near term, it piles additional pressure onto employers already facing elevated costs, especially at a time when energy costs are escalating.

Broader tax receipts are also rising, with gains in income tax, corporation tax and VAT pushing revenues up by £1.7 billion. But government spending continues to climb, with amount the departmental is shelling out up £2.9 billion as pay rises and inflation feed through into everyday costs. Welfare spending has also increased, driven by inflation-linked benefits and higher state pension payments.

Debt interest payments dipped by £1.3 billion, but given the more volatile bond markets due to the Iran war, this could be short-lived. There’s still a precarious balancing act underway and the concern will be that without tighter rein on the public finances, this improvement could reverse, especially if the Middle East conflict acts as a big drag on growth.

Given the headlines of unruly markets and a highly uncertain global outlook, the UK government’s campaign to try and boost participation in stock markets may not on the face of it, look timely. However, with an estimated £430 billion sitting in cash that could potentially be invested, even a modest shift in behaviour could have significant repercussions. The idea is to break the dam holding back this vast pool of under-utilised wealth and see it flow into investments, helping to build individual financial resilience and work harder for the wider economy.

Many people worry about the risks of investing, but leaving money stagnating in accounts earning paltry amounts of interest is also a risk given that inflation quietly eats away at cash balances. While savings have struggled to keep pace with rising prices, long-term investing has historically offered a way to grow wealth and preserve purchasing power. Yet despite this, a significant proportion of savers remain hesitant to take the plunge into the stock market.

A bold investment culture has been slow to emerge partly because a significant confidence gap has built up. The barriers to investing are often less about access and more about understanding and perception. There is a lack of familiarity with product names such as the Stocks and Shares ISA, and recent tinkering with limits for tax-free ISA wrappers has added to the confusion.

Many potential investors often say they don’t know where to start, how to compare products, or what is right for them. This is where a government-backed campaign could make a big difference. By improving awareness, simplifying choices, and offering more accessible tools and guidance, it has the potential to unlock engagement from millions who are currently sitting on the sidelines.''

Today, we have a thriving market with 10+ insurers and around £40bn of liabilities insured by trustees last year alone. This compares to the position prior to 2006 when there were just two insurers writing about £1bn per year.

The genesis of the new insurers joining the market in 2006 had occurred three years earlier. In June 2003, following scandals where solvent companies walked away from underfunded DB schemes, the UK government ruled that sponsors could only exit their schemes once fully funded on a buy-out basis.

The ramifications were long-term and set in stone by the Pensions Act 2004. With few exceptions, most DB schemes at the time faced massive buy-out deficits. The new rules of the game were clear: wind-up was only an option once buy-out funded.

But back in 2006, we wondered: could there be a win-win for trustees and sponsors utilising these new insurers, even for schemes far from buy-out? We envisioned the extra competition creating an economically priced insurance product that could protect schemes against rising life expectancies—even for just a portion of each scheme’s liabilities—that could serve as a stepping stone to further insurance in the future, with no obligation on when (or even if) future transactions were completed.

The modern buy-in was born.

Incidentally, when we helped the Hunting Trustee secure this transaction in 2006, the the term buy-in hadn't been coined at that point! But the trustees wanted it to be clear that it wasn’t a “buy-out” and so when an enlightened trustee who understood the significance of the policy being a trustee investment made the link to carry across the “in” from the word investment into the new term buy-in, the phrase we are all now familiar with was born.

Alongside Hunting’s auditors, we helped to pioneer the framework for recognising buy-ins under the newly introduced FRS17 accounting standard (now IAS19) to avoid a direct P&L impact. This was key in paving the way for the wave of buy-ins that followed.

I’d draw out the fortunes of two insurers in the UK bulk annuity market in particular and how the regime provided security for policyholders:

ALICO (AIG’s historic international arm): When the US parent conglomerate required a massive US government bailout in September 2008, the parent company sought cash from within the wider AIG group. However, the regulatory shield around the UK bulk annuity entity kept those monies safely ringfenced. (Today, those original UK policyholders sit securely with Rothesay.)

Paternoster: In 2009, the FSA (predecessor to the PRA) increased reserving requirements in the wake of the GFC. Paternoster had to use excess capital allocated for new business to strengthen its reserves and agreed with the FSA to close its doors to new transactions. As a result, the business maintained its solvency and members received their benefits in full; the key losers were shareholders when the business was sold to Rothesay in 2011 for £260m (against the £500m original investment commitment).

Crucially, the crisis validated the regulatory and balance sheet model underpinning bulk annuities, and add to this that today’s insurance capital regime is significantly stronger than that in place during the GFC. In my view, it is the resilience and active risk management against financial tail risks that remains a key draw for many of the schemes choosing insurance today.

ICI Pension Fund (from 2013): We helped the Trustee to design and realise an "umbrella contract," providing master terms for all future buy-ins the Fund chose to write. This allowed the Trustee to be nimble and seize short-lived pricing opportunities (like post-Brexit and Covid-19), and lock in exceptional pricing for the long-term benefit of Fund members. This model has been followed by nearly all other large schemes seeking to enter into a series of buy-ins.

Philips Pension Fund (2013-2015): Working alongside the Philips Trustee, we navigated their £3.5bn full insurance journey across three insurers, resulting in them becoming the first multi-billion scheme to reach buy-out and wind-up in the new era.

Streamlined Buy-in Service (from 2011): For smaller schemes, we developed the market’s first streamlined buy-in contract in 2011. This gave smaller schemes cost-effective access to pre-negotiated terms usually reserved for larger schemes. By the end of 2025, this streamlined approach had helped over 100 small schemes to purchase over £5bn of buy-ins across these transactions.

The trigger? The almost universal improvement in DB scheme funding levels from late 2021 through 2023. While the now infamous September 2022 mini-budget was a high-profile catalyst of this, real interest rates had already been rising for 12 months—this helped DB funding levels to surge by 10-15% for the average scheme, making insurance affordable for a huge tranche of schemes well ahead of expectations.

This ushered in the £40bn-£50bn per annum buy-in market we have today. Looking back at the mega-deals of this era, standout market milestones include RSA insuring £6.5bn with PIC (pioneering illiquid asset transfers at scale), the £7.5bn British Steel scheme reaching full insurance across four buy-ins with L&G, and Rolls-Royce securing a £4.3bn market-leading "member-first” buy-in with PIC. Having had the privilege as a firm to advise on these landmark transactions, it is clear that trustees, sponsors and insurers have continually raised the bar for what schemes can achieve through insurance.

For schemes focusing on buy-ins, new investors for Just (Brookfield) and PIC (Athora) are bringing fresh capital and asset-sourcing capabilities to the market, helping to keep pricing for pension schemes at the strongest levels we've seen in years.

However, the biggest immediate challenge is transitioning buy-ins through to buy-out efficiently. With over 300,000 members due to transfer to buy-out in 2026, administration capacity bottlenecks remain a challenge to address. Yet, the prize for schemes reaching buy-out over the coming years is to reap the benefits of the huge investments in member service and technology platforms that we have seen across the board from insurers.

The Government’s further changes to the regime, published in its consultation response today, follow its consultation last year. Proposals include removing the Certification Regime, which applies to less senior roles, from legislation. The Government also proposes giving more flexibility to the regulators to further reduce the number of senior management functions (SMFs) which require pre-approval.

The regulators plan to consult on wider changes, taking advantage of any increased legislative freedom later in the year, as part of the Leeds reforms to halve the SM&CR’s regulatory burden on firms.

Lucy Rigby, Economic Secretary to the Treasury, said: “The UK has some of the highest standards for financial sector governance in the world. They protect consumers, strengthen market integrity and are emulated internationally, helping make our financial services sector one of the great jewels in our economic crown.

“We are committed to preserving those high standards — while making regulation simpler and easier to navigate. By working with regulators to streamline the Senior Managers and Certification Regime, we are cutting unnecessary complexity, halving the administrative burden, and building a simpler, faster and more competitive system.”

Sarah Pritchard, deputy chief executive at the FCA, said: “These joint reforms will keep consumers and markets protected while making the regime more proportionate. We’ve also used our current powers to streamline the regime now, so firms can benefit before future legislation unlocks even more efficiencies”.

David Bailey, executive director for prudential policy at the PRA, said: ”The SM&CR plays an important role in ensuring accountability in the provision of financial services, but it is right that we work to ensure it is well-targeted and efficient. Today’s reforms are an important first step in allowing firms to focus on what matters most, and we will continue to deliver further improvements to the regime as part of the wider reforms being made by the Government.”

Today’s announcement builds on work already done to speed up SM&CR approvals:

The FCA’s most recent published quarterly metrics show 99.7% of applications were determined within the current 3-month statutory deadline, with 94.7% determined within the Government's proposed new 2-month statutory deadline.

The PRA’s most recent quarterly metrics show 100% of applications were determined within the current 3-month statutory deadline, with 98% determined within the Government's proposed new 2-month statutory deadline.

While the increase in prices will be felt keenly at the petrol pump, it is highly unlikely a single inflation print will be enough to sway policy makers into moving the Bank of England base rate next week – though market watchers will be eagle eyed to see the vote split, as members of the MPC will likely be divided.

Inflation is likely to remain elevated in April too, and markets are now pricing in one rate rise later this year. But our house view is that rates are held through the conflict – returning to the expected rate cutting cycle later than forecast just a couple of months ago, but on path to neutral next year.

The pound didn’t move on the news, such was the increase expected, and it is unlikely to move UK markets when London opens this morning. But that doesn’t mean increased inflation will be ignored forever. Warnings in the recent days have come from the International Monetary Fund and the EY Item Club – specifically calling out the UK’s specific vulnerability to the impact of the war due to our reliance on Middle Eastern energy, global supply chains – and starting point of already anaemic growth compared to other G7 nations.

These were worst case scenarios – modelling a long and protracted war, which yesterday’s ceasefire extension suggests the US has little appetite for. We think that while the conflict is likely to impact UK – and indeed global – growth for the next couple of months, it is unlikely to cause recession on either side of the Pond.

For a man elected on ending forever wars, this is a deeply unpopular conflict with his base, and as he approaches Mid Term elections with American’s being pinched by higher petrol prices and higher bond yields, Trump will be keen to find resolution.

Overnight, the US President announced that he would be extending the ceasefire with Iran, which was due to conclude yesterday. The news sent US futures higher across both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ tech index, and the oil price fell slightly too. But the ceasefire extension last night has not done enough to entirely quell markets this morning, with mixed reaction on the board. Markets will be balancing the positive news of a continued ceasefire with the other news flow – peace talks are not progressing, and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. Bloomberg calculates that 100 fewer ships a day are getting through the Strait, compared to pre-war volumes.

Futures this morning suggests the FTSE 100 will open modestly down, with European markets and the US in the green.”

Trucks remain the dominant target, accounting for roughly 70% of all incidents globally, and more than a fifth (22%) of global cargo theft incidents involved the cooperation of insiders.

Technology-enabled theft also grew more sophisticated, with criminals exploiting cybersecurity weaknesses, fraudulent documents, and impersonation tactics to carry out fictitious pickups, double and triple brokering, and product hostage schemes. California (31%), Texas (15%), and Illinois (7%) recorded the highest incident volumes in the United States.

Mike Yarwood, Managing Director of Loss Prevention at TT Club, commented: "Our 2025 findings make clear that cargo theft is no longer a static or predictable threat. Criminal networks are adapting faster than ever, exploiting new commodities, new technologies, and new vulnerabilities across the entire supply chain. Proactive, intelligence-led mitigation is no longer optional - it is essential."

Jim Yarbrough, Global Supply Chain Solutions Director for BSI Consulting, added: "The 2025 data reinforces that cargo theft is a dynamic, intelligence-driven challenge that demands an equally dynamic response. Criminal groups are targeting every link in the chain - from unsecured parking spaces and rest stops to exploitable digital freight platforms. Organisations must match that sophistication with robust, flexible risk strategies."

The report concludes with critical mitigation recommendations, including dynamic commodity-specific risk assessment, enhanced GPS tracking and tamper-evident sealing, tighter governance around load board usage, increased investment in scanning technology and cross-agency intelligence sharing, as well as heightened scrutiny of subcontracted transport providers.

For more information and to access the full report, visit BSI Consulting and TT Club 2025 Cargo Theft Report

There were tentative signs that confidence had been stabilising, as the cloud of uncertainty around the Budget and potential tax rises began to lift. Pay growth came in slightly stronger than anticipated, with average weekly earnings, including bonuses, rising 3.8% year-on-year. Although that marks a slowdown from the previous 4.1%, it still indicates that wage pressures haven’t faded away entirely. Taken together with better-than-expected growth of 0.5% in the three months to February, the data suggests the UK economy had been regaining some momentum.

However, that progress now looks increasingly fragile. Just as companies appeared to be rediscovering their mojo, the escalation in the Middle East and the renewed threat to energy supplies risk sapping confidence once again. So, more hiring plans may be shelved and investment suspended as bosses turn ultra-cautious about the unfolding events.

For policymakers, the easing in wage growth had been keeping hopes of interest rate cuts alive, with pay pressures no longer ringing alarm bells at the Bank of England. But the surge in energy prices and heightened geopolitical uncertainty are raising the prospect that borrowing costs may need to be increased to calm an incoming inflation storm. One interest rate hike is still being priced in by financial markets, and Bank officials are staying wary about how fresh price pressures will emerge. The concern now is that just as the UK economy was beginning to steady itself, a fresh external shock could knock it off course.

However, hopes are being kept alive for a potential deal to emerge which could limit the economic damage, as Pakistan prepares to host fresh negotiations Even though Donald Trump is still threatening to resume strikes, the key Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, and Iran has not confirmed its sending a delegation to the talks, there are expectations that some kind of deal will be reached. However, for now, a ‘wait-and-see’ mood is swirling, with the FTSE 100 flat in early trade while Brent crude is in a holding pattern, trading around $95 a barrel.''

The rhetoric has once again intensified as attention moves towards a second round of negotiations between Tehran and Washington in Pakistan, but it's not at all clear whether these discussions will take place. Whether this impasse proves to be merely a detour on the path to a resolution remains to be seen, but more volatility would seem the most likely outcome. Asian Pacific indices were mainly up overnight, but European indices and the FTSE 100 have given back some of Friday’s gains, and US stock futures are down.

Brent Crude prices have climbed 5% to over $95 per barrel just days after they fell by about $12 to $85 on Friday on hopes of the resumption of energy cargoes through the Strait of Hormuz. Further downstream, the crisis is starting to have tangible effects, with several airlines cutting back on less profitable routes and the International Energy Agency warning that European jet fuel supplies could run out by early June. Over time, the energy supply chain is likely to pivot and become less dependent on the Strait, but so far, only around 20% of oil traffic has been diverted, and there is no instant fix.

There are some big names in Aviation reporting this week, and some cautious guidance is to be expected. US carriers United and American Airlines report on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively. The effect of short-term oil price fluctuations is likely to be less pronounced higher up the chain, but a prolonged hit to airline profitability could, in time, feed through to demand for aircraft and engines from the likes of Boeing and GE Aerospace, who are also set to report this week.

Interest rate expectations continue to bounce around, hanging on every twist and turn in the Gulf. But Kevin Warsh's testimony to the US Senate tomorrow could provide a longer-term steer on the direction of American monetary policy as the Fed chair frontrunner sets out his credentials for the role. Central bank independence and the potential for structurally lower rates as AI productivity gains start to bite are likely to be key points of focus.

There are several big economic data points to keep an eye on, too, as markets weigh up the impact of the conflict on inflation and demand. US retail sales in March are expected to show further resilience tomorrow with a forecasted 1.3% increase. On Wednesday, expectations for UK CPI data have been moving up since the conflict broke out, and March price increases are now expected to be nudging 3.5%. Anything higher is likely to be negative for sentiment towards UK equities, but we still think domestic rates will remain on hold while the conflict continues. Attention then shifts to PMI Thursday, with headline numbers for the US, the Eurozone, and the UK providing a more forward-looking snapshot of the global economy.

In addition to its new extension to DB schemes, the 2026 survey will not only track how the ‘lost pots’ landscape has evolved – examining the total number of pension pots lost, their value, and overall age-distribution – but also explore the underlying drivers and their implications for policy and savers’ outcomes.

The Lost Pensions Survey is the UK’s definitive evidence base on the scale and value of lost pension pots. Since its inception, the survey has shaped public debate, informed policy development, and supported small pot consolidation through increased public awareness via the research’s media impact. The PPI’s Lost Pensions 2026 report will be published in October 2026.

Danielle Elliott, Head of External Relations and Project Lead, commented: “We are delighted to launch the 2026 Lost Pensions Survey, which for the first time will extend to cover Defined Benefit schemes. Lost pensions remain a significant and growing issue, with millions of pots worth billions of pounds going unclaimed. The PPI’s research plays a vital role in highlighting the scale of the problem, supporting policy development, and encouraging people to reconnect with their savings.

“By broadening the research in 2026, we aim to build a more complete picture of the pensions landscape and strengthen the evidence base across the industry. We encourage schemes to get behind this work by taking part in the surveys and helping to ensure the findings are as robust and representative as possible.”

Anna Sharkey, Head of Money and Pensions Policy at the Money and Pensions Service said: "We are pleased to support this important new research, which by including Defined Benefit pensions for the first time, will help us to better understand the ‘lost pensions’ landscape.

“The existing scale of lost pensions across the UK demonstrates the importance of the upcoming Pensions Dashboard as a tool that will help reconnect people with lost pensions and strengthen people's engagement with their pensions.

“We look forward to the findings, which will better inform our guidance on claiming lost pensions, and help more people understand and take control of their financial futures.”

If you have a defined contribution pension you have more flexibility as to who gets the benefits, but you must fill out your expression of wish forms with your pension provider, so the administrators know who you would like your pension to be paid out to in the event of your death. Not keeping these up to date can cause delay and frustration at an already difficult time and can mean the wrong person gets the benefits.

If you die before the age of 75 then your child won’t have to pay income tax on what they inherit. If you are over age 75 then they will, but it will be at their marginal rate, not yours.

As it currently stands pensions are not usually part of your estate for inheritance tax purposes but from April 2027 they will be, so you need to be aware of any potential tax bill your beneficiaries might receive. If you are taking an income from an annuity, then unless you have value protection then there’s nothing to pass on to anyone.”

The initial pensions dashboard will be provided through MoneyHelper, backed by the Money and Pensions Service (MaPS). Over time, commercial dashboards from providers and other firms are also expected to follow, potentially offering additional tools around consolidation and retirement planning.

Testing is already under way. Small-scale user testing has begun, with broader testing planned ahead of any public launch. The government has indicated that a decision on public availability is expected later this year, making a limited launch within the next six months a realistic prospect.

While the precise timing and scope of initial public access remains uncertain, momentum is clearly building.

What the pensions dashboard will change for employers

When the dashboard becomes available, many employees will be seeing their full pensions picture for the first time. Two themes are likely to follow.

For some employees, seeing multiple small pots or lower than expected values could trigger confusion or concern without clear signposting to support.

The dashboard may also change expectations: employees may look to employers and providers for help acting on what they see, even though the Dashboard is designed to be “view only”.

There is also a reputational dimension. For many employees, the workplace pension remains their main reference point. How that scheme appears on the Dashboard, and how queries are handled afterwards, will shape perceptions of the wider benefits package.

The dashboard does not change scheme structures but will make comparisons easier and increase follow up questions. Employers who use existing governance and member support frameworks effectively will be best placed to respond with confidence.

Events in the Middle East remain the key market driver, and President Trump's overnight comments on the potential for further peace talks between the US and Iran could boost equity markets today. A ceasefire between Israel and Iranian proxy Hezbollah after Israeli/Lebanese talks in Washington provides further hope for de-escalation.

For the oil market, the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz remains the focus, and Brent Crude prices this morning have fallen only slightly to $98, reflecting the scale of the task required to find a lasting resolution. All eyes now turn to Paris, where Keir Starmer and Emmanuel Macron are hosting a summit of global leaders to facilitate the ‘immediate reopening of the strait.’

US stock futures are up again after both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 reached fresh highs. As hopes build for an end to war and the resumption of energy flows, investors are once again putting their faith in technology and its exposure to structural rather than cyclical growth drivers.

The US domestic economy is also showing signs of resilience, with this week’s initial jobless claims falling to 207,000 and undershooting forecasts of 215,000. The economic resilience and inflationary impact of higher energy prices mean that imminent interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are no longer on the table. Looking to the end of the year, no change is still the most likely outcome being priced in by markets. Nonetheless the last week has seen the probability of a quarter point cut by Christmas shift from 21% to 26%. Any further gain in confidence towards the resumption of the easing cycle would provide a further tailwind for equities. However, with geopolitical uncertainty running high investors would be wise to remain diversified across sectors and asset classes.

Matt Britzman, senior equity analyst, Hargreaves Lansdown: “Netflix delivered a solid first quarter on both sales and margins, but with shares down almost 10% in pre-market trading, the reaction shows investor expectations had quietly crept higher. Many were likely hoping for a lift to full-year guidance after the surprise March price increases, especially with the stock already priced for mid-teens annual sales growth. The 11-13% organic growth outlook for 2026 looked reasonable when the next US price rise was expected later in the year, but with hikes already in play, and no shift to guidance, a clear growth reacceleration is harder to map.

Reed Hastings stepping down as chairman in June adds a leadership headline. But we wouldn’t expect any meaningful change to strategy or day-to-day operations, given the growing influence of the co-CEOs, something we saw with the recent Warner Bros. bid, which marked a shift away from Netflix’s historically cautious approach to big deals. Overall, the business still has several structural growth drivers in place, although the timing of the next phase of faster growth now looks less predictable than markets had hoped going into these results.”

Between 2022-24, life expectancy at birth rose across all wealth levels (deprivation deciles) compared to 2019-2021 for both men and women, although it was still lower in the most deprived decile compared to the period immediately before the pandemic (2017-19).

But the ONS estimate that healthy life expectancy (HLE) decreased across all wealth levels compared to 2019-21 with the greatest decreases found in the more deprived areas. HLE decreased by 3.2 years for females and 2.2 years for males in the most deprived decile, but also by 1.8 years for females and 1.2 years for males in the least deprived (wealthiest) decile.

There is a significant equality gap between deprivation deciles. Life expectancy at birth for males was 10.4 years lower in the most deprived areas compared to the least deprived and 8.1 years for women. Similarly, the divide in healthy life expectancy between the most and least deprived areas was 19.4 years and 20.3 years for men and women, respectively.

David Cooper, director at retirement specialist Just Group, said the figures show a widening inequality, not just in how long people live, but how long they live in good health: “A woman in the least deprived area of England can expect, on average, to live around eight years longer than her counterpart in the most deprived areas; for men that gap is 10 years,” he commented.

“Even more striking is the discrepancy in healthy life expectancy – both men and women in the least deprived areas of England can expect to enjoy, on average, around twenty years more in healthy life expectancy than their counterparts in the most deprived areas.

“Inequality represents a huge challenge because those from poorer areas are more likely to be forced out of the workforce earlier due to ill health, while also having fewer financial resources to fall back on before reaching State Pension age.

“It sharpens the focus on the adequacy and flexibility of retirement income solutions. People may need access to their pension savings earlier, or in a more tailored way, to bridge gaps in income and support changing health needs over time. At the same time, the growing period spent in later life with complex health conditions reinforces the importance of planning for care, which remains one of the most significant – and often underestimated – financial risks in retirement.”

The ONS figures are useful for policymakers trying to understand current health trends across the whole population because they are based on historic mortality and assume no impact from future medical breakthroughs or lifestyle improvements. A 65-year-old living in the same areas would be expected to have a significantly higher age of death because their life expectancy depends only on death rates beyond their age, whereas survival from birth is based on death rates at every age.

Source: Barnett Waddingham 2026 Insurer survey

This is perhaps not surprising given the sharp increase in the number of schemes transacting with insurers over recent years. However, it brings sharper focus to a key question: how quickly are schemes progressing from buy-in to buyout, and how does that compare with the number of new buy-ins being written?

This highlights the ongoing challenge: while buy-ins are becoming increasingly common, the final steps to buyout and wind-up still require substantial time and preparation. Three years to buyout is becoming accepted as the current industry norm, as reflected by The Pensions Regulator in its recent modelling on the evolution of DB schemes.

There are, however, some encouraging signs. Almost a fifth of transactions written in 2023 and 2024 have already moved through to buyout, demonstrating that schemes can progress quickly, within one to two years, when they are well prepared and advanced with their data and benefits work. This aligns with the patterns we are seeing across our own cases, where a quarter of our schemes in this 2023-2024 cohort have reached buyout. Looking at older transactions, our focus on preparedness means all of the schemes BW advised that transacted in 2021 have already bought out, compared with only 54% across the wider market.

The buyout pipeline is set to keep growing in 2026. While insurers project an increase in buyout capacity, Barnett Waddingham’s estimates suggest buy-in activity will surpass 400 transactions this year. This means that 2026 is likely to be another year with more buy-ins than buy-outs, adding further volume to the pipeline of schemes progressing toward full buy-out and eventual wind-up. As a result, the buy-out queue is projected to grow to more than 800 schemes.

It is worth noting that some schemes reflected in this buyout queue will have will have chosen to remain in a long-term buy-in and so will not place demands on insurers’ onboarding and administration capacity. However, most schemes are still expected to move directly to buyout in time. This makes it more important than ever for schemes to be well-progressed with data and benefit work in order to move smoothly through the post-transaction process and secure insurer capacity.

Encouragingly, many of these blockers are expected to reduce over time. As more schemes address data quality, benefit rectification and GMP equalisation before entering the market, the post-transaction journey should become smoother and more predictable. This supports our view that the most significant delays usually arise from scheme-side tasks rather than insurer capacity.

As a result, schemes can expect a broader range of solutions and more capacity across the market in the years ahead.

Insurers are also introducing innovative ways to streamline the post-transaction journey, including insurer-led data-cleansing support, more standardised and simplified processes, and solutions such as direct insurer GMP equalisation implementation to shorten timescales. Together, these developments point to a market focused not only on increasing buyout capacity, but also on improving the overall experience and reducing friction for schemes preparing for buyout and wind-up.

Beth AllisonHead of Post-Transition and Wind-up, BW: "Our survey highlights that while well-prepared schemes can reach buyout in under two years, it is becoming increasingly common for schemes to take three to four years from buy-in to buyout. This experience is likely to persist for the foreseeable future, as reflected in the projected growth of the buyout queue over 2026. Although insurer capacity continues to expand and more schemes are addressing major data challenges such as GMP equalisation before transacting, these changes will take time to work through the pipeline. They may also be offset by an increasing number of smaller schemes that are expected to buy-in over the coming years, each requiring a similar level of fixed resource. One thing remains clear: schemes that progress fastest are those that are well-prepared, with a robust data and benefit cleansing plan and disciplined project management. In a market where competition for capacity is intensifying, expert support is critical to maintaining momentum and achieving a smooth and timely path to buyout and wind-up."

Post-Transaction Consultant Henna Ruparelia contributed to this article.

Oil prices remain elevated above $90 a barrel after a volatile start to the week, as investors look towards a possible extension of the ceasefire between the US and Iran while weighing the chances of a broader agreement that could ultimately reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Reports suggest the US and Iran are considering extending their two-week truce to allow more time to negotiate a lasting peace deal. For now, markets appear willing to look past higher oil prices, but reopening the Strait is key to sustaining this broader risk-on appetite. In the meantime, the flow of oil and gas is still effectively cut off, paving the way for more volatility ahead.

UK GDP delivered a stronger-than-expected bounce in February, rising by 0.5% on the month and suggesting the UK economy entered the year with more momentum than many had assumed. But forward-looking activity surveys for March point to the conflict with Iran already taking the wind out of that growth as higher energy costs begin to feed through. Growth will likely slow from here as conditions become more challenging, which is one of the reasons we expect the Bank of England to hold rates steady amid volatile energy prices rather than implement hikes.

TSMC reported a 58% jump in first-quarter profit to record levels, as demand for its most advanced chips continued to surge. The world’s largest chip manufacturer saw growth driven by rising demand for the technology used in data centres and AI systems. AI-related demand is an ever-growing driver of sales, while smartphone orders softened as higher memory costs began to weigh on more traditional devices. That shift underlines the strength of the ongoing AI buildout, with AI customers quickly taking up any spare capacity left by weaker demand elsewhere. The valuation doesn’t make for a perfect entry point, but TSMC remains an exceptional business at the centre of an AI buildout that is still in its early stages, with scope for revenue and profits to keep beating expectations - an attractive name for long-term investors.”

In 2025, around 50% of firms reported limited or no AI implementation. Twelve months on, AI is now used across much of the market, with 93% of firms who responded having, or developing, formal AI frameworks to support adoption.

This reflects a clear transition from cautious exploration towards more structured and governed adoption, with firms prioritising oversight, accountability and risk management ahead of large-scale deployment.

Key findings from the survey include:

AI adoption accelerates sharply year-on-year

The survey highlights a clear step change in adoption across the Lloyd’s market.

In 2025, AI and machine learning adoption was described as in its infancy, with around 25% of survey respondents reporting the use of AI. A year on, there has been steady progress across a number of functions such as underwriting, operations and compliance.

This growth is primarily driven by generative AI applications, such as ChatGPT or Microsoft Copilot, and internal productivity use cases, including summarisation, reporting and data processing. Despite this acceleration, these applications remain largely focused on efficiency gains, with limited deployment in core underwriting, pricing and claims decision making.

Governance frameworks become a clear priority

A defining shift over the past year is the rapid development of governance frameworks across the market.

Last year’s findings highlighted concerns around regulatory uncertainty and the absence of robust AI frameworks. In contrast, the 2026 survey highlights that governance is now firmly established as a priority, with the vast majority of responding firms implementing or developing structured frameworks.

Firms are embedding policies, oversight structures and controls ahead of scaled deployment, reflecting a more deliberate and risk-aware approach to AI adoption.

Human oversight also remains central to decision making, with over 60% of firms explicitly requiring mandatory review of AI-generated outputs, ensuring that AI is used to enhance, rather than replace, expert judgement.

While progress has been made, accountability and regulatory integration remain areas of ongoing development in the market.

Data risk moves to the top of the agenda

Despite progress in AI adoption and governance, the findings also show a clear shift in how firms perceive AI-related risks.

In 2025, data security and privacy were not consistently ranked among the top priorities. Comparatively, in 2026, data privacy, cybersecurity and third-party risk have now emerged as some of the most prominent concerns across the market.

This reflects growing awareness of the risks associated with scaling AI, particularly around data handling, third-party dependencies and system security. Around one in four firms still rely on general third-party risk management frameworks, rather than AI-specific provisions.

Concerns around data quality, bias and the reliability of AI outputs remain ongoing, highlighting the need for continued investment in validation, testing and assurance as use cases evolve.

Sanjiv Sharma, Head of Actuarial and Exposure Management at the Lloyd’s Market Association, said: “AI adoption across the Lloyd’s market has accelerated quickly over the past 12 months, but what’s encouraging is that governance is being built alongside it, rather than after the fact, with over 93% of those surveyed having a framework in place or being developed. What the survey clearly highlights is that the market is still early in its journey, but the foundations for responsible adoption are clearly being put in place.

There is no clear consensus across the market on where responsibility for AI governance should sit, with firms adopting a range of approaches across technology, risk and compliance functions.”

Wan Heah, Partner and Head of General Insurance at Barnett Waddingham, added: “The market is moving past experimentation and towards a more disciplined use of AI, with governance, data protection and validation now firmly in focus. The real test is ensuring these frameworks keep pace as AI applications become more complex.

There is no single blueprint for AI governance. Firms need to strike a careful balance between risk and opportunity and put in place practical, robust risk management strategies to support responsible adoption.”

“Every touchpoint you have with pension holders is an opportunity to reinforce our message. Whether it's in your correspondence, websites, or customer service teams, you can help people understand the importance of stopping and thinking before sharing personal information on their life savings.”

The webinar – which is now available to watch online – brought together more than 550 pension trustees, advisers and administrators to hear from experts on the latest intelligence, advice and tools to keep their members safe.

Lord Hanson also outlined the Government’s new fraud strategy and the Stop! Think Fraud campaign, which provides advice on how to protect yourself from pension fraud.

Mike Broomfield, Head of Intelligence at TPR and Chair of the Pension Scams Action Group (PSAG), updated attendees on PSAG’s latest work to identify and disrupt fraudsters’ operations at source and prevent harm to pension savers.

He outlined how PSAG – a multi-agency taskforce led by TPR to tackle pension fraud – is working with the UK’s national domain name registry, Nominet, to proactively flag newly registered domains and disrupt potential scam sites before harmful content is even published.

Mike revealed how a series of suspicious websites, identified using TPR’s AI website detection tool, were found to have involved the same bad actor operating as part of a wider criminal network.

These websites sought to deceive and exploit savers with promises of tax-free access to pension pots before the age of 55.

Through collaboration with the National Economic Crime Centre and Nominet, many of these websites were promptly taken down.

Mike said: “Each of these malicious websites would have had the potential to reach thousands of savers. Removing these emerging threats disrupts criminals’ operations, uses our resource efficiently and, most importantly, helps protect the public from harm.”

To date TPR has reviewed more than 1,000 suspicious websites in this way.

“We are now exploring further ways of dealing with repeat bad actors and working with our partners to develop further disruption techniques,” Mike added.

“Fraud wrecks lives. Through strong, coordinated action, we can stop scammers in their tracks and protect savers’ futures.”

Mike underlined how vital reports from industry are in informing this work.

Chris Bell, Report Fraud, Service Delivery Director at City of London Police, gave an overview of Report Fraud, the new cyber-crime and fraud reporting service, outlining how every report related to pension fraud is analysed by a TPR analyst embedded in City of London Police (CoLP) and fed directly into active intelligence work.

“The intelligence we’re receiving is helping us build a clearer, more comprehensive picture of the threats out there – and high-quality reporting from pension professionals is a key part of that. You don’t need to be sure that fraud has taken place before you report something. Every report counts. Sometimes it’s the small concerns that help complete a bigger picture.”

Population growth and faster communications mean there are just more nodes interacting, generating more output. And climate change, especially given it’s so non-linear, throws another spanner in the works. The world is changing, and changing fast.

That’s not necessarily a bad thing. Plenty of change is positive, such as medical advances. If you accept that there’ll be more change though, what’s not in much doubt is that there will be both some winners and some losers- more change means more dispersion.

For an equity investor, this is fine. In an extreme example, if half the index doubles and half the index falls to zero, overall performance is neutral. You can live with holding some of the losers as long as your portfolio is diversified, and you also hold some of the winners.

For investors in credit though, the same picture is much less rosy. If half of companies win and half fail, investment grade credit investors would gain less than 1% on half the portfolio and lose about 60% on the other half, ending up down around 30% overall.

Obviously this is an extreme example, and default rates are unlikely to be an order of magnitude higher than they were during the Great Depression. But with spreads well below 1%, it doesn’t take many defaults to wipe out any gains. And, crucially, it highlights that there are two ways we could end up having more defaults- we could have a bear market where everything fares worse; or we could have more dispersion, more big winners and more big losers, with returns more differentiated. Markets can all do badly, or some companies can win big while others lose dramatically.

I find that using this lens makes clear the sort of bet you make when you invest in credit. For me, fundamentally, it’s this:

Investment grade credit is a bet that things won’t change that much

With the corollary:

Ten-year Investment grade credit is a bet that things won’t change that much in the next ten years

In some ways credit is protected. If markets struggle, corporate bonds are likely to continue to pay out, so credit offers security against even fairly large bear markets. But in a world with more dispersion, the best way to protect yourself is to have a portfolio that has some upside potential too.

If the world is changing faster than ever, we should have more winners and more losers- in short, more change. Investment grade (IG) credit is a bet that things won’t change that much; and long-dated IG is a bet that the world won’t change that much even over a long time. My questions for IG investors right now are therefore:

How big a bet do you want to take on the world not changing too much?How much do you need to be paid for that bet to be good value?Does your portfolio reflect your answers to the first 2 questions?

According to the study, over a third (36%) of people who changed jobs within the last five years did not ask about the organisation’s pension scheme at any stage of the hiring process, with just 6% raising the topic early on and only 12% doing so at final interview. Over a fifth (21%) waited until receiving a job offer and 16% asked after accepting the role.

Yet pensions remain one of the strongest drivers of career decisions, nearly a quarter (22%) of people said the workplace pension was the benefit that most influenced whether they accepted a role, placing it third after salary (48%) and flexible working (25%). This suggests there is a gap between what people value and what they feel able to ask about when applying for a new role.

The data also reveals some gender differences in the benefits people prioritise when changing jobs. While salary remains the top driver for both men and women, the research suggests women are more likely to value flexible working (27%) and generous holiday allowances (24%), while men place greater emphasis on long-term financial incentives, ranking pension packages (26%) and bonus schemes (16%) more highly (see table one). These findings highlight how important it is for employers to communicate pension value clearly and proactively throughout the recruitment process to all candidates, showing how they support long term financial resilience.

Recent research by M&G and the Social Market Foundation shows that many workers remain disengaged from their pension even after starting a role: 40% of full-time workers don’t know their employer’s contribution, 43% have never changed their own contributions, and 25% have lost track of past pension pots.

Through its Reframing Retirement campaign, M&G is calling for a national pension health check3 that would encourage savers to regularly review their pension circumstances as part of Pension Dashboards whenever they change jobs.

Kerrigan Procter, Managing Director, Corporate Pension Solutions at M&G, said: “When applying for a job, checking the pension scheme on offer is essential. Too many people are missing out because they don’t ask, or the information isn’t readily available. That’s why we make our pension details clear and upfront in every job advert, and why we’d like to see all employers do the same. When combined with a simple pension health check at each job move, that transparency could make a huge difference to people’s financial security. Pensions need to be impossible to overlook.”

Table one: List of benefits which influenced people’s decisions to accept a role

Source: M&G 2026

The FCA rules require redress to be based on market conditions and asset valuations applying on the first day of the quarter, so the amount of payments that will be made in Q2 2026 is now known. First Actuarial’s calculations show that the overall exposure to redress on a typical portfolio of Defined Benefit transfer advice is only slightly higher in Q2 2026 than it was in Q1.

The muted impact of market changes on the redress applying to a book of pensions transfer advice reflects the ‘no redress required’ results that most Defined Benefit loss calculations are still returning. However, redress volatility remains a concern for those firms that wrote pensions transfer advice some time ago.

Sarah explains: “In general, where transfer advice was given in the 1990s and 2000s, and is subsequently found to be unsuitable, the FCA’s methodology will result in a requirement for the firm to pay compensation. And it’s these cases where redress really jumped around during March. Market conditions on the crucial quarter-end date have become something of a ‘lucky dip’.”

With no end in sight to market volatility, uncertainties around redress payments will likely persist in the current period.

The First Actuarial Redress Tracker, now updated to 1 April 2026, models the aggregate redress for a portfolio of notional cases. The notional portfolio reflects redress in relation to transfers from a variety of schemes, with a range of transfer dates and consumer ages. Allowance is made for transfer proceeds to have been invested in a mixed portfolio of assets.

The Transaction will be funded through a combination of cash, debt and shares in Standard Life, with Aegon becoming a strategic shareholder and asset management partner

The acquisition is expected to increase Group operating cash generation and IFRS adjusted operating profit by approximately £160 million per annum, and to deliver £0.4 billion of additional excess cash over the five years following completion

Establishes Standard Life as the UK’s second largest workplace pensions platform by assets and customersStandard Life will move from a smaller retail provider to the UK’s second largest retail pensions and savings platform

Commenting on the Transaction, Andy Briggs, Group CEO of Standard Life, said: “Our agreement to acquire Aegon UK significantly accelerates our vision to be the UK’s leading retirement savings and income business. We will be in an even stronger position to meet the evolving needs of our 16 million customers with enhanced digital, advice and distribution capabilities across Workplace and Retail, strengthening our standing in one of the world’s most attractive markets. Furthermore, the transaction accelerates our shift to capital-light whilst strengthening our cash, capital and earnings position to create increased value for shareholders.

With financial wellbeing at the heart of everything it does, Aegon UK’s values and culture are aligned with our own. Together, we will not only be stronger, we will be better - helping our customers achieve better outcomes and greater financial security in later life. I look forward to welcoming everyone at Aegon UK to Standard Life in due course and working together to capture the huge potential in front of us.”

Sales in the Middle East have, unsurprisingly, been most effected, but so too have sales in China – one of the luxury sector’s most important regions. Hermes also revealed sales in Paris are down, as fewer shoppers undertake international travel.

The macro data flow is similarly negative this week – with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimating that the war will hamper global growth by 0.2 percentage points this year, forecasting expansion of 3.1%. The UK is set to feel the brunt of the disruption with growth predicted at 0.8% for this year, downgraded from 1.3% in the January forecast. The IMF kept in place its forecast for 2027 however, suggesting resilience to the current headwinds.

The IMF shares our base case that the war does not escalate from here, nor become increasing protracted, disrupting energy markets and supply chains into next year. We consider Trump has little appetite for the impact on US stock markets, bond markets and opinion polls – and this week’s ceasefire has brought welcome respite, however fragile. In the event that the extreme scenario does play out however, with oil at $125 a barrel into 2027, the IMF warned that inflation would be stoked and growth would weaken.

Our house view has remained throughout the war that the Bank of England will hold rates while Iran war is ongoing but is unlikely to hike. Comparisons with the Russia-Ukraine war – the impact on inflation in 2022 and associated rate hikes – are not comparing apples with apples. Interest rates were near zero when Russia invaded Ukraine, and sit above neutral rate today, providing buffer to the impact of elevated prices. Gilts, fixed-term cash, and actively managed bond funds look attractive in this environment.

Markets currently are looking through the war – with the S&P 500 back to pre-conflict levels after a strong session yesterday. Europe also had a strong day yesterday, which has meant some softness on the open today, a mix of some company specific news and market dynamics. The FTSE 100 has opened flat.

Where do markets go from here? Expect continued volatility, and the recent rally may be a good opportunity to take gains and rebalance where needed ahead of earnings season.”

BW’s data shows that the journey from buy-in to buyout continues to take considerable time for most schemes. Of transactions completed in 2021, just over half have now reached buyout, meaning almost half have been in the process for four or more years without yet crossing the finish line.

Around half of 2022 transactions have completed within three years, a timeline that is increasingly being recognised as the industry standard, and one referenced in The Pensions Regulator's (TPR) own modelling on the future of DB schemes.

More recently, the numbers drop sharply: only 28% of 2023 transactions have transitioned to buyout to date, falling to 9% for 2024.

Despite the broader picture, BW's findings highlight that speed is achievable. Almost a fifth of transactions written in 2023 and 2024 have already reached buyout within one to two years, demonstrating what is possible when schemes arrive at the process with data and benefits work already in strong shape.

This mirrors patterns seen across BW's own caseload, where a quarter of schemes in this 2023-2024 cohort under its management have reached buyout. Looking at the older transactions, BW’s focus on preparedness means that all of the schemes BW advise that transacted in 2021 have bought out already, compared with only 54% across the whole sector.

Beth Allison, Head of Post-Transaction and Wind-Up, Barnett Waddingham, said: “Our survey highlights that while well-prepared schemes can reach buyout in under two years, it is becoming increasingly common for schemes to take three to four years from buy-in to buy-out. This experience will likely persist for the foreseeable future, as reflected in the projected growth of the buyout queue over 2026.

“Although insurer capacity continues to expand and more schemes are addressing major data challenges such as GMP equalisation before transacting, these changes will take time to feed through the pipeline. They may also be offset by an increasing number of smaller schemes that are expected to buy-in over the coming years, each requiring a similar level of fixed resource.

“One thing remains clear, schemes that progress fastest are those that are well-prepared, with a robust data and benefit cleansing plan and disciplined project management. In a market where competition for capacity is intensifying, expert support is critical to maintaining momentum and achieving a smooth and timely path to buyout and wind-up.”

The FCA was also concerned that some of the firm’s adverts stated consumers would receive £1846 on average for compensation for motor finance claims, with no explanation of how they reached this figure.

Conclusive also promoted a ‘No Win, No Fee’ service on its websites, without a proper explanation of the fees, including any exit fees, people would be charged. It did not tell consumers that they could make claims for free to their lender or to the Financial Ombudsman Service without the need to use a CMC.

Alison Walters, director of consumer finance at the FCA, said: “Consumers should be wary of adverts that overpromise or give the impression they are endorsed by the FCA or well-known individuals. We will take swift action where rules are being broken. Our scheme is free and people don’t have to use a CMC or law firm. If they do, it’s important that they can trust them.”

A joint taskforce with the FCA, Solicitors Regulation Authority, Advertising Standards Authority and Information Commissioner’s Office was recently formed, which is the latest measure by the regulators to improve standards. Following FCA action, CMCs have removed or amended 899 misleading adverts since January 2024.

Advice for consumers

For consumers who have engaged with Conclusive and believe they have been misled by its advertising, they should complain directly to Conclusive. If consumers are unhappy with the outcome, they can refer their complaint to the Financial Ombudsman Service.

If a consumer, as a result of seeing these adverts, has signed up with a law firm, then they should complain to the law firm directly and the Legal Ombudsman if they remain unsatisfied.

While the key Strait of Hormuz remains blockaded, with the US accusing Iran of economic terrorism, there are signs that behind-the-scenes negotiations are being prepared between Tehran and Washington ahead of the end of the fortnight-long ceasefire in a week’s time. In addition, Israeli and Lebanese ambassadors are scheduled to meet in Washington, a key development given Tehran’s insistence that any ceasefire must include a cessation of all strikes.

The duration of restrictions on Iran’s nuclear activity appears to be a major sticking point. The US is reportedly calling for a 20-year halt to development, while Iran is only willing to concede five years. So, while the door appears open to a deal, particularly given political pressure in the US, there remains a significant gap between the positions of both sides. As a result, the squeeze on energy supplies is likely to remain a disruptive force, and markets may stay jittery.

BP’s trading update reflects this uncertainty, with the company highlighting that volatile commodity markets will be a key feature of its first-quarter results. Its trading division is expected to deliver an exceptional performance, driven by crude prices hitting hot levels amid the Iran war and the scramble for supplies of oil, natural gas, and refined products. Refining margins are also set to rise, and production is expected to remain broadly stable. However, net debt is forecast to increase to $25 - $27 billion because more cash is being tied up in day-to-day operations. As oil prices rise, BP is likely to need more money to hold the same barrels and to keep its trading activity running, which pushes up borrowing in the short term. Shares have dipped today, reflecting the easing of oil prices, with Brent crude hovering around $98 a barrel.

Shares in UK grocers are in positive territory after shoppers showed more resilience in their spending patterns than expected in March. An early Easter helped boost supermarket sales. According to the British Retail Consortium, food sales increased by 6.8%, well above the 2.9% growth recorded in February. While food price inflation likely accounted for a large portion of this increase, families still appeared willing to spend on Easter celebrations despite cost-of-living concerns.

Although food is essential — allowing retailers to pass on higher costs more easily — celebratory purchases are more discretionary, yet remained robust in March. However, if fuel prices stay elevated and broader costs continue to rise, households are likely to become more cautious, trade down to cheaper brands, and reduce non-essential spending.”

The FCA will prioritise exploring how open finance can help small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) improve access to credit and speed up loan applications. It will also examine how open finance can help consumers manage and improve access to mortgages.

David Geale, executive director for payments and digital finance at the FCA, said: 'Open finance has the potential to transform how people interact with financial services. By giving consumers and businesses more control over their own financial data, we can help them access credit, secure better deals and receive more customised support – while fuelling innovation, competition and supporting economic growth.'

To progress plans as quickly as possible, the FCA will engage with industry, consumer groups and fellow regulators in 2026 to develop a range of practical open finance use cases. This will be done through the FCA's Smart Data Accelerator and PRISM (Prioritisation and Real-world Insights Selection Matrix) Taskforce.

Adam Jackson, chief strategy officer at Innovate Finance, said: 'Just as open banking has sparked the growth of many UK fintechs, so open finance can power a new wave of innovation. By unlocking high-quality data in a way that secures consumer trust, open finance can be a foundation for widespread adoption of agentic AI. We support collaboration between industry and the FCA to deliver the roadmap at pace, enabling agreement on priority use cases and datasets, and appropriate regulatory action to open these up to competition and innovation.'

The FCA will work with HM Treasury on options for a regulatory framework for open finance by the end of 2027. Firms will be supported to introduce open finance products sooner where they are already able to access data and appropriate permissions are in place.

“However, others use them as an alternative to savings, buying individual bonds through investment platforms. You can buy a bond that’s within a few years of maturity, hold it until the end date, and you’ll get the par value at that point. You need to be comfortable with the fact that if the UK government defaults on its debts, you may not get the full repayment, but that’s highly unlikely.

“The key is that gilts with low coupons, issued during the pandemic and set to mature soon, tend to be priced below their par value. At the time of writing, for example, there’s one due to mature in January 2028 with a coupon of just 0.125%, priced at £93.20. On its maturity date you’ll get £100 for every £93.20 you put in. The monthly payment is small, so the lion’s share of the gain is the difference between what you pay for it and what you get back when it matures.

“Frozen income tax thresholds – and the lowering of the additional rate threshold – have made tax-efficient saving even more vital. Crossing an income tax threshold means your personal savings allowance halves or disappears altogether, and the excess is charged at your new higher marginal rate. This, combined with cuts to the Cash ISA allowance for those under 65 from April 2027, means more people paying more tax on their savings.

*Top paying two-year fixed account is Close Brothers at 4.63% as of 13 April 2026 (source: Moneysavingexpert).

It provides a consistent reference point for pricing decisions, but it can’t fully reflect the dynamics of the market or the nuances of individual risks. At some point, judgement inevitably enters the process.

In practice, judgement appears in more places than you may realise. It can start in the model itself. Assumptions about trends, exposure adjustments or credibility all involve judgement. It appears again when technical prices are adjusted for individual risks, and also when underwriters respond to broker behaviour or competitive pressure.

None of these decisions are purely technical, but together they shape the price that is ultimately written.

When underwriters adjust pricing, that judgement typically falls into two broad categories. Some adjustments reflect the underwriter’s view of the risk itself. For example, an underwriter may believe a particular client is better managed than the average account in the portfolio. Or, the underwriter may feel that recent improvements in the risk are not yet reflected in the model. In those cases the adjustment is risk based.

Other adjustments are driven by commercial realities. A broker relationship may be important, a client may be strategically valuable, or the wider market may simply be pricing more aggressively than the technical price suggests. Soft markets amplify this and technical and market prices begin to drift further apart.

For example, a model might indicate that a renewal requires a 5 percent increase to maintain the equivalent pricing level, while the broker indicates the market is flat. Writing at the technical price may mean losing the business, while matching the market would mean accepting lower margins.

The pricing model provides the starting point but judgement is needed to decide how to respond.

It is also worth remembering that price is not the only lever that changes in softer markets - terms and conditions can also weaken. Having a simple framework to assess the expected cost of those changes helps ensure they form part of the wider pricing decisions.

Underwriters see aspects of the risk that simplified models cannot easily capture. They understand broker relationships, client behaviour and how competitors are approaching a renewal.

At the same time, pricing teams and portfolio managers often see patterns that are harder to identify at individual deal level. They may notice when certain brokers consistently push pricing lower, when particular classes are drifting away from technical levels, or when risk-based adjustments are becoming more frequent.

Bringing these perspectives together helps ensure individual pricing decisions still make sense at the portfolio level. Stronger firms also track how far pricing moves away from technical levels against pre-agreed appetite ranges. Small deviations on individual risks are expected, but if pricing regularly falls outside those ranges it prompts a wider conversation.

In practice, following the market is sometimes the right commercial decision. The key is having the information available and making that choice deliberately, in line with your strategy, rather than letting it happen gradually through lots of small, unmonitored adjustments.

Another dynamic that often appears as markets soften is how adjustments are described. Commercial adjustments are usually quite visible. Everyone understands that sometimes you follow the market to keep a good client or maintain a broker relationship.

Risk based adjustments can be harder to interpret. An underwriter may genuinely believe a particular client has better risk management than average. But as competition increases, those adjustments can start appearing more frequently. Over time more and more risks end up being described as “better than average”.

The challenge is that if those adjustments are not captured clearly, it becomes difficult to distinguish genuine risk differences from market driven pricing. Collecting the data and tracking how often these adjustments occur can provide useful insight into how underwriting behaviour is evolving as market conditions change. It also allows those insights to feed back into technical pricing, portfolio steering and governance discussions.

In practice, a few simple habits can make a big difference:

Being clear about who owns the final pricing decision avoids confusion about responsibility.Separating risk based adjustments from commercial ones helps everyone understand what is actually driving pricing changes.Stepping back to review patterns across the portfolio helps spot when market pressure is quietly reshaping the book.

When that visibility is in place, technical pricing and underwriting judgement tend to work well together.

Closing thoughts

Soft markets inevitably create tension between technical pricing and market reality. Judgement is what allows insurers to deal with it. The key is making sure those decisions remain visible and intentional.

In the final article in this series, we look at pricing governance and how firms balance flexibility with discipline when markets soften.

William Altman, Director of Cyber Threat Intelligence Services and report author, said: “AI is compressing the cyberattack lifecycle, reducing the time threat actors spend between initial compromise and operational disruption, and in some cases enabling impact to occur before detection and containment are effective. As a result, recovery capability may become a more important determinant of business interruption (BI) loss severity than traditional preventative controls.

“As AI becomes more deeply embedded in critical business operations and increasingly concentrated across compute infrastructure, hyperscale cloud platforms, and foundation model providers, the potential for portfolio aggregation risk may rise. This reflects the tightly coupled nature of the AI supply chain, where dependencies on a small number of dominant providers create shared points of exposure across insureds. This increases the likelihood of correlated losses rather than isolated events, particularly as AI systems take on greater roles in automation, decision-making, and operational control.”

The research also calls on cyber catastrophe and aggregation risk modelers to begin incorporating AI risk dynamics into their work, noting that such analysis will become increasingly necessary if AI evolves from an augmentative capability into core operational infrastructure. In that scenario, dependencies across compute, cloud, and model providers could act as shared points of failure, requiring explicit modeling of how disruptions at these layers might propagate across insured portfolios and generate correlated, cross-sector losses.

A copy of CyberCube’s report can be viewed here.

Trump does have a track record of pulling back from the brink, especially when markets react negatively, and so there will be hopes that he’ll remain true to form and an agreement can be salvaged sooner rather than later. But in the meantime, investors should be prepared for more turbulence.

Iran’s oil had been flowing, and sanctions had been temporarily lifted to keep a lid on prices to limit financial and political fallout. So, there’s more than a hint of desperation in this drastic action. It seems the US has been cornered by Iran’s defiance, with hopes of an offramp replaced by fears of a dangerous escalation. Trump is willing to send the prices of oil, gas and other commodities sky-high, in the hope it’ll force concessions from Iran. China is Iran’s key customer, and this appears to be a ruse to provoke Beijing into piling pressure on Tehran. The backlash back home if this strategy doesn’t work is likely to be severe and there’s already deep unease spreading.

The bellicose attitude of the US is set to see it lose more friends and influence around the world. Vice President Vance’s failed weekend talks followed his show of support for Hungary’s Victor Orban, who has just been defeated after 16 years in power. The Hungarian political earthquake marks a seismic shift away from the right-wing populism, trumpeted by the US administration. The stunning landslide victory of Peter Magyar’s Tisza party shows the determination of Hungarians to sweep away authoritarian policies and corruption which drove a wedge between the country and other European Union nations. The Hungarian forint has surged, rising by 2% against the euro and 1.7% against the dollar, amid hopes that suspended funding from Europe will start to flow again and boost the economy.

There are now hopes for greater European cooperation and unity, and the UK government is also edging closer to EU allies. Keir Starmer’s plan to align the UK with single market regulations would remove red tape for businesses and make it much easier to trade with the bloc. As the UK economy is set to struggle to cling onto growth this year, amid the Middle East crisis, restoring more frictionless trade with Europe would offer respite to companies which have seen exports to the bloc decimated since Brexit. Many are now bracing for further pain from the Middle East crisis, and the prospect of an improvement in European trade will bring some optimism.

For now, though, there’s still huge trepidation about the repercussions of the ongoing Iran crisis. A storm of price rises is on the way, with fuel, food, bills and housing costs set to rise further. As inflation is set to ramp up as the economy struggles, a toxic and persistent stagflation scenario risks emerging. Interest rates are set to rise, just as other financial pain points flare up, and a miserable May looms after an anxiety-laden April. Housebuilders have fallen back in early trade, as expectations that the Bank of England will push up rates intensify. It will make moving to larger properties or getting a foot on the housing ladder a lot more expensive, and the housing market is set for a difficult period.

Even if the ceasefire holds, it still will take months for shipping traffic through the strait to normalise given that hundreds of tankers are anchored outside the Gulf waiting for safe passage and there’s a log jam of thousands of containers. Given the widespread damage to energy facilities across the region, production was already set to take years to be restored to pre-conflict levels.

As the situation appears increasingly complex to resolve, there’s a recognition that countries around the world will have to batten down the hatches and prepare for a longer crisis. This will intensify cost-of-living pressures for not just millions but billions of consumers around the world. More energy rationing is likely, with South Asian countries having already implemented emergency measures. The next two to three weeks will be crucial and could determine the extent of potential official wider rationing measures in the UK and Europe.

The aviation industry is bracing for an extraordinary period ahead, with jet fuel shortages looming and route disruption expected. Airlines were among the biggest fallers in early trade with British Airways owner IAG falling 2.3% and easyJet down 3%. Rolls Royce also fell by around 1.7%. It earns a significant chunk of revenue from servicing aircraft engines, and so will be affected by lower flying hours of fleets of planes.

The UK is particularly vulnerable to a jet fuel crisis, given its reliance on exports from Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. The last pre-crisis shipments have now arrived from the Middle East and the countdown is on before supply risks emerge. There’s a growing chance that leisure flights could start being cancelled from May if carriers are unable to source enough fuel from other producing nations. It’s going to be a challenge given other countries are also on the hunt for new suppliers, and it seems highly likely that prices will ramp higher as demand shoots up. Airline seat prices have already risen by around a fifth and are likely to become more expensive as the busy summer season approaches.''

They’ve requested a search, found their pots and seen the combined value of their pensions on a single screen for the first time.

Testing is set to accelerate over the coming months with thousands of members given the opportunity to see all their pensions in one place. This will test the infrastructure more fully and provide important feedback from people of all walks of life on what they understand about what they are being shown, and if it meets their needs and expectations.

The biggest question most people will have is when will the dashboards be available to everyone? It’s unlikely we’ll see any announcement while testing is ongoing as it will be better to announce a definite date than one that is contingent on testing and subsequent development being successful. When the bell sounds, we want to be sure that we are on the final lap. Realistically, we can expect that signal to come later this year, with the go live date being in 2027.

There are still some development hurdles to negotiate. The Pensions Dashboards Programme is currently consulting on changes to the reporting standards. These set out the data that pension schemes must provide to the dashboards on their performance and compliance. These include meeting the requirement to respond to 99.9% of data view requests within ten seconds. Any changes will require provider systems to be reconfigured, and tested, to ensure compliance.

While reaching the go live date might represent the finishing line for the Dashboards Programme, it will be a baton transfer for pension schemes. Aviva is already preparing for the launch, ensuring the right people and processes are in place to support the anticipated increase in consumer engagement once the Dashboard goes live.

The regulators are also getting on their marks. The FCA have recently consulted on how revised rules can prompt improved decision making when scheme members are considering transferring their pension. The obvious risk is that individuals who are keen to have their pension in one place will move their pension money without fully appreciating the potential downsides. The FCA are keen to promote side by side comparison of key drivers of good outcomes, such as fund performance and charges, at retirement options, guarantees and protections, as well as drivers of engagement like apps and website capability. Many providers offer this already, but it isn’t universal.

The Pensions Dashboards Programme is a fantastic achievement but its success in driving better outcomes will depend as much on the success of the handover to pension schemes, as the years of development to date. Schemes may want to consider providing information and education ahead of pensions dashboards becoming available, but also once it is in place. It’s a huge opportunity for people to make positive, well informed, changes to their pension plans, that go beyond consolidation.

Not being able to export oil, affected countries first filled up domestic storage, and once this was full they had no choice but to shut in production. At the time of writing, we have seen 10mb/d of oil market production closed. The figure is smaller than the pre-conflict Strait volumes as some pipelines have been used to bypass the Strait, in particular by Saudi Arabia.

The disruption has seen oil prices rise to around $120 per barrel (bbl), with Middle Eastern barrels and refined products trading at levels never seen before. Singapore jet fuel reached $220/bbl at one stage compared to $82/bbl pre-conflict.

As of 8 April, Iran and the US seemed to have stepped back from the brink and agreed to a two-week ceasefire and the re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz. Both sides are claiming victory.

If the vessel number surges to 75% of pre-war levels, then that represents a near normalisation of flows given the current use of pipelines that were not previously running at full capacity.

However, while shipping levels could return to normal quickly, it will take weeks or even months for production levels to return to normal given the 10mb/d of shut-in production and damage to some facilities. This should mean that front month oil prices (i.e. oil for near-term delivery) are unlikely to fall to pre-conflict levels quickly. The uncertainty about when production will return should support prices. And the outcome of any talks is unknown; we have had two rounds of unsuccessful talks before so there is no guarantee they will work now.

We do not know if the US will refill the SPR at this pace, but this conflict has highlighted the vulnerability for many. It would not be surprising if Asian and European countries, which have been more impacted and have limited reserves, try to address this in the coming years. These long-term factors should support oil prices in the medium term.

We will continue to adjust positions as the Middle East conflict evolves. Whatever the outcome, we strongly believe that these events have raised the long-term floor for the oil price in all scenarios, apart from one where Iran is now a Western leaning country, an outcome we think unlikely.

The Broadstone Sirius Index has rebased for 2026, tracking a ‘growth focused’ and a more conservative ‘matching focused’ investment strategy against a low dependency basis*. Both schemes started 90.0% funded at the start of 2026.

Reporting its update for March 2026, the Broadstone Sirius Index found that both schemes unsurprisingly reversed gains that had been made through February and January of 2026 during the month in the face of considerable economic and market volatility.

The funding level of the ‘matching focused’ scheme decreased by 1.7 percentage points from 90.3% at the end of February to 88.6% at the end of March.

The funding level of the ‘growth focused’ scheme fell back slightly more, by 1.8 percentage points, but from a higher starting point given the positive growth returns over January and February. The funding level fell from 90.8% at the end of February to 89.0% at the end of March ending the quarter slightly ahead of the ‘matching focused’ scheme.

Chris Rice, Head of Trustee Services at Broadstone, commented: "The last few years have been incredibly strong for the health of defined benefit schemes, allowing many investment strategies to be derisked to protect scheme funding positions.

“Most schemes shouldn’t be experiencing a significant change in funding in the first quarter of 2026, with the deterioration in March generally reversing January and February’s gains.

“The instability will no doubt cause concerns for trustees and sponsors however and trustees should be regularly monitoring their liquidity, hedging levels and LDI resilience.”

Oil prices have eased back from the highs seen earlier in the week but remain stuck in an elevated $95-100 range as supply concerns continue to dominate the outlook. The ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz remains the key sticking point, with President Trump warning Iran against imposing transit fees on vessels moving through the crucial shipping lane - a concern that has also been echoed by the UAE. Shipowners are still waiting for clearer guidance on access, leaving one of the world’s most important energy arteries largely closed to traffic. Until it reopens, oil prices are unlikely to return to more stable levels, keeping inflation worries alive for investors. Getting the waterway flowing again will be a clear priority for the White House, which, despite some strongly worded social media posts, doesn’t seem to have the leverage needed to force a full reopening.

TSMC, the world’s largest contract chipmaker, reported first-quarter revenue up 35% year on year, beating market forecasts on continued strength in demand for AI hardware. March was particularly strong following a slightly softer February, with growth of 45%, almost double the longer-term average for the final month of the quarter. There may be plenty of noise elsewhere in the world, but the AI buildout shows little sign of slowing, with demand for AI hardware as strong as ever. Investors need only look at soaring GPU rental prices, tightening availability, comments from cloud CEOs, and now a strong set of sales from TSMC for confirmation. As software stocks continue to come under pressure, hardware names are beginning to absorb a greater share of investor capital. While certain software names look attractive at current valuations, we believe AI hardware is set to capture a larger-than-usual share of economic value in an increasingly AI-infused world, suggesting the chip trade may have further to run.

Gold is set for a third consecutive weekly gain, although it has not acted as the store of wealth or shock absorber that many might have expected during the recent Middle East tensions. That is largely because interest rate expectations have been the bigger driver of price action, outweighing the typical risk-off demand. This week’s tentative ceasefire, coupled with news of talks over the weekend, has shifted rate expectations into a more favourable position for gold, helping support the latest move higher.”

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US stock futures slipped lower this morning, giving up some of yesterday’s gains as renewed Israeli strikes on Lebanon raised questions about the durability of a fragile ceasefire agreement in the Middle East. While it’s been a tough start to the year for equity investors, the bigger picture needs to be kept in mind. The S&P 500 has already rallied more than 7% from its 30 March low and is now down less than 1% year-to-date. While progress towards a more permanent resolution in the Middle East will dominate short-term market moves, it’s earning power that drives stock prices in the long term. Some corners of the market have seen their share prices get caught up in the broader market sell-off, despite a resilient or improving earnings picture, so there’s something to be said for being greedy when others are fearful.

Brent Crude prices recovered some of yesterday’s sharp losses this morning, moving nearly 2% to around $97 per barrel following further Israeli strikes on Lebanon. The Strait of Hormuz, which handles around 20% of global crude and gas flows, remains largely obstructed, and Iranian media reports suggest that oil tanker traffic through the Strait has been suspended again following the attacks by Israel. Oil prices will likely remain elevated and choppy until a more permanent agreement is struck between all parties, and on that front, US Vice President JD Vance is set to lead a US delegation to Islamabad for direct talks with Iran this weekend.”

Matt Britzman, senior equity analyst, Hargreaves Lansdown:

“Meta’s new AI model, Muse Spark, is a better-than-expected first release from Zuckerberg’s Superintelligence Labs, a team he's spent tens of billions building after last year’s misstep that led to a reset of its previous model group. Shares jumped last night as early benchmarks show the model performing in the same broad range as leading systems despite this being the team’s first real outing since that overhaul. Meta was upfront that this is very much iteration one, and while there still appears to be a gap between Muse and the top models from OpenAI and Anthropic, this moves Meta back into the upper tier of model builders. With markets having largely priced in little return from its AI investment plans, this release offers an early signal that the new team is back on track and begins to put some tangible footing under longer-term monetisation hopes - we think the risk/reward setup for Meta is attractive right now.”