Matt Britzman, senior equity analyst, Hargreaves Lansdown: “Global markets are bracing for a critical day as President Trump’s looming deadline keeps investors on edge, with sentiment holding up better than you might expect given the risk of escalation. European stocks are set for a cautious open, with the FTSE 100 expected to open lower and US futures pointing to a dip, but these modest moves suggest investors are positioning carefully rather than fully pricing in a worst-case scenario. Either way, today has the potential to be one of the most volatile trading sessions since the conflict began, with any headlines likely to drive meaningful swings across global markets.
US stocks closed higher yesterday, but trading volumes were notably light. Normally, that might be put down to an Easter lull, but this time it looks more like investors struggling to decide how to trade the current environment. Futures are pointing to a softer open this afternoon, and we expect pressure to build on stocks as the day progresses if we move closer to Trump’s deadline without any sign of a deal or even a temporary ceasefire. Rate expectations in the US have been just as unsettled as equity markets in recent weeks, with traders now pricing in no change through 2026. The scale of recent swings means it would not be surprising to see expectations shift again later today as events unfold.
Broadcom announced two longer-term developments after yesterday's close, including a new five-year agreement to develop and supply future generations of TPUs and networking components to Google through 2031. The deal includes revenue commitments across that timeline, which should help ease some of the recent nervousness around TPU competition and give a clearer signal that its largest customer sees meaningful demand visibility well into the future. The company also expanded its collaboration with Anthropic to 3.5GW of AI compute coming online from 2027. We already saw upside to medium-term revenue and profit expectations off the back of recent results; these new deals help underpin that idea if deployment ramps as planned.
Oil prices are creeping higher this morning, hovering near levels not seen since 2022. Oil has effectively become the key transmission channel for broader market risk, with moves now feeding directly into everything from bond yields to equity sentiment and even gold prices as investors try to gauge how far the conflict could hit global energy supply. With Iran warning it could escalate attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure if the US targets civilian assets, oil is increasingly acting as the primary driver of volatility heading into today’s deadline.”
|
