Matt Britzman, senior equity analyst, Hargreaves Lansdown: “Global markets are edging higher this morning as investors respond to a ceasefire in the Middle East that gives President Trump a clear offramp and lowers the immediate risk of further escalation. The FTSE 100 has opened 2% higher, while US futures are pointing to an even larger jump when markets open later this afternoon. The S&P 500 notched its fifth consecutive positive session last night, with the index now on track to record a six-day winning streak if it can hold on to pre-market gains, something not seen since October 2025.
Oil prices have moved sharply lower as the ceasefire agreement marks the first meaningful step toward a potential resolution. News that all parties are now working toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz is another clear positive for market sentiment, even if energy markets remain cautious. There is still work to be done, though, and oil prices will likely remain elevated and choppy until there is a more permanent resolution. The return of free-flowing traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, without any Iranian tolls or controls, feels essential if oil prices are going to start trending back toward levels we saw before the conflict began.
Interest rate expectations have shifted slightly following the ceasefire, bringing markets back toward the view that further US tightening is off the table. Investors are now becoming more comfortable, tentatively pricing in the potential for rate cuts to resume toward the end of this year or into early 2027. In the UK, markets are still attaching some probability to another hike, although conviction has faded meaningfully in recent sessions. We still see rate hikes as unlikely, given lingering growth concerns, with a holding pattern more probable for now. Further moves in this direction, and perhaps an eventual return to expectations of rate cuts, would be supportive of both stock markets and gold.
The Halifax House Price Index showed UK house prices rose 0.8% year on year in March 2026, the slowest pace in three months, while prices fell 0.5% over the month to leave the average UK home valued at £299,677. That backdrop has added to recent pressure on housing-related stocks, which have struggled as rate-cut expectations have fallen away. However, easing tensions and a more stable outlook for borrowing costs could now provide a welcome tailwind for the sector at a time when momentum has started to fade.”
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