Marking the 20th anniversary of the Willis Research Network (WRN), the report, “The decision advantage”, argues that competitive edge increasingly depends not on predicting the future, but on recognising changing assumptions early enough to act before options narrow and value is lost. Intangible investment exceeded US$10 trillion in 2025 and investment across major economies could approach US$100 trillion between 2026 and 2030 if current patterns continue.
Drawing on two decades of WRN research, scenario work and practical risk experience, the report argues that organisations are not struggling to make decisions because of a lack of data, forecasts or insight. The challenge is recognising when changing conditions should alter a strategic decision. AI deployment, electrification, workforce transformation and security-driven growth increasingly compete for the same infrastructure, skills, capital, resources and institutional capacity. Strategic opportunities can remain attractive while becoming harder to realise because the conditions required to deliver them are secured elsewhere first.
The report introduces a pathway to improve decision-making by helping leaders identify changing assumptions, assess what value is at stake, establish thresholds and triggers and generate evidence that actions improve outcomes. It also highlights the importance of assessing not only value that could be lost through disruption, but value that may never be realised because opportunities narrow, capacity becomes constrained or critical resources become unavailable.
Case studies are included in the report, focusing on four strategic decisions many organisations are facing today: AI-enabled growth, electrified growth, security-driven growth and adaptive capacity under pressure. Increasingly, these ambitions compete with each other for the same infrastructure, skills, capital, resources and institutional capacity, and changing conditions can influence whether strategic objectives are realised, delayed or abandoned.
Helene Galy, Managing Director, Willis Research Network said: "The Willis Research Network was established twenty years ago to contribute to the improvement of institutional decision-making, by connecting world-class research to real-world business challenges. This report captures that spirit by bringing together two decades of insight and translating it into a practical framework in a world where risks, opportunities and dependencies are increasingly interconnected.
The next 20 years will not be defined by a single technology, risk or disruption but by the interaction of multiple systems competing for the same infrastructure, resources, skills and capital. As organisations invest trillions of dollars in growth, transformation and resilience, competitive advantage will increasingly come from recognising changing assumptions before they become constraints.
The organisations that succeed will not necessarily be those that predict the future most accurately. They will be those that create decision advantage by identifying what is changing, understanding what is at stake and acting before opportunities narrow or critical conditions become unavailable."
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