Life - Articles - Actuaries at a loss on COVID impact on life expectancies


Based on the information provided by the CMI to date around the proposed changes to the projections model (expected today), Isio has the following comment.

 Iain McLellan, head of research and development at Isio said: “With this latest release from the CMI, the profession is firmly sitting on the fence. Updating the projection model, but having a default that ignores the last two years of data isn’t really an update.

 “It might be considered the sensible thing to do given the uncertainty, but perhaps this decision highlights the shortcomings of a methodology which extrapolates from past data when we experience a mortality shock event. Adding in further complexity to the model will not help make it any more accurate, but will make it harder for trustees and pension scheme sponsors to understand and make decisions.

 “Presumably the release of the latest model will lead to divergent outcomes as individual actuaries are asked to draw their own conclusions. I expect we will see some recycling of old actuarial jokes as a result - have you heard the one about asking two actuaries a question and getting three different answers?!”

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Actuaries at a loss on COVID impact on life expectancies
Based on the information provided by the CMI to date around the proposed changes to the projections model (expected today), Isio has the following com

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