Rathbones Asset Management has applied a fixed income lens to the 2026 FIFA World Cup, analysing sovereign bond yields across qualifying nations to produce a forecast for who would make it to the finals if it were driven by the relative attractiveness of their government bond markets. Using two measures — the highest current 10-year government bond yields and the largest rise in 10-year yields over the past 12 months — the analysis identifies the teams whose bond markets may, in theory, offer clues to success.
The first part of the exercise looked at which qualifying countries have seen the sharpest increase in 10-year government bond yields over the past year. On this measure, South Korea (+136bp), Colombia (+124bp), Japan (+110bp) and the Czech Republic (+79bp) came out on top. England, by contrast, ranked lower down the table, suggesting that despite perennial optimism among supporters, gilt market moves alone are not enough to carry the team to glory.
The second measure focused on the highest current 10-year government bond yields among qualified nations. On that basis, Brazil (14.1%) and Colombia (13.5%) sit near the top of the field, alongside other high-yielding emerging markets including Argentina (9.4%) and Mexico (9.2%). Taken together, the two approaches produce a shortlist of likely contenders, with Colombia appearing in both camps and Japan and Brazil emerging as particularly compelling candidates.
Based on the overlap between the two data sets, Rathbones’ notional semi-final line-up features South Korea, Colombia, Japan and Brazil, with Japan narrowly preferred to Argentina on the balance of the analysis. Applying a final active-management overlay, the team’s forecast points to Japan meeting Brazil in the final
Bryn Jones, Head of Fixed Income at Rathbones Asset Management, says: “We wanted to take a familiar bond market framework and apply it to something far less conventional. Looking at both the level of 10-year yields and the scale of the move over the past 12 months gave us a playful way to compare teams heading into the tournament. On our numbers, Japan and Brazil stand out, while Colombia appears consistently strong across both measures. Sadly, England are ranked 7th from our analysis (+46bp and 5.1% across both measures) and so have no chance of winning in our version of the tournament.”
Lewis Elliot, analyst at Rathbones Asset Management, adds: “England supporters may be disappointed that gilts do not point to a home victory, but the broader result is more interesting. Colombia scores well whichever way we cut the data, Japan shows strong recent momentum, and Brazil combines high yields with the pedigree you would expect from one of football’s most successful nations. That left us with a Japan versus Brazil final.”
As with any investment model, there are caveats. Some nations were excluded because comparable 10-year bond data was not available. Jones continues with an example: “Scotland do not have any government bonds at this time so can’t compete in this world cup. However, with Scottish government bonds, known as kilts, expected to come to the market in 2026/27, maybe by the next tournament Scotland will be a contender.”
Although this is not intended as a serious forecasting tool, it offers a way to show how market indicators can be interpreted, compared and debated — even when the subject is football rather than fixed income.
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