Investment - Articles - Februarys inflation snapshot shows the calm before the storm

Susannah Streeter, chief investment strategist, Wealth Club: “February’s inflation snapshot shows the calm before the storm of higher prices. Before the war with Iran broke out, causing destruction and chaos to energy facilities and supply routes, these numbers demonstrate that the price spiral had paused, with the headline rate of inflation staying at 3%.

Prices at the pumps had fallen back, easing the pressure on motorists and giving consumers a bit more to spend. Clothing, footwear, furniture and household goods rose slightly in price.

What a difference a month makes. Even though oil has retreated from the frighteningly high levels hit over the past few weeks, Brent crude is still hanging stubbornly around $100 a barrel, and gas prices remain highly elevated.

Higher energy prices risk being passed on by companies to consumers, and that will be the big worry going forward. Already, core CPI, stripping out volatile energy and food prices, rose slightly from 3.1% to 3.2% in February, indicating that underlying price pressures remain. These are set to intensify, given that energy and freight costs are mounting and firms are likely to want to pass on these extra costs.

President Trump is teasing the world, claiming negotiations are showing significant progress, with a 15-point plan aimed at an initial month-long ceasefire apparently on the table. But conflict is still raging and will be highly complex to solve.

While the key Strait of Hormuz is being opened to ‘non-hostile’ vessels, there will be no safe passage for ships flagged as allies of the US. Right now, given how wide Iran’s circle of enmity appears to be, the Strait will be a highly difficult route to navigate, and production is likely to remain depressed in Gulf states, which are struggling to store crude built up with nowhere to go.”