Susannah Streeter, Chief Investment Strategist, Wealth Club: ‘’The precious metal plunge has continued with silver and gold hastening their sharp decline. The volatility is unnerving and is dampening investors’ appetite to take risks. London's FTSE 100 opened in the red with mining stocks heading sharply lower after the frenzied demand for the safe-haven assets went into reverse. Precious metals have been in freefall, erasing the year’s gains to far, however bargain hunting is likely to limit the descent lower.
The shock unravelling of prices demonstrates just how concerned investors had been about perceived attacks on the independence of the Federal Reserve. There had been concerns that a Trump cheerleader would be installed at the central bank, which could lead to politically led decision-making, and risks of runaway inflation. But now financial industry heavyweight Kevin Warsh has been anointed as successor, with deep Fed experience, he’s not expected to be a pushover and that’s sparked this big reversal of safe-haven positions. Silver was down 38% on last week’s highs, while gold is down by around a fifth. Hopes of an easing of geopolitical tensions, with negotiations ongoing between the US and Iran, and Russia and Ukraine have put added pressure on prices. However, given the style of capricious policymaking at the White House, and trade and diplomatic upsets we’ve seen, demand is not going to evaporate. Gold is still up by around 65% compared to this time last year while silver is up 120%, despite these recent dramatic falls.
Energy stocks listed in London have also been under pressure as oil prices have also erased recent gains. Brent Crude is trading around $65 a barrel, down from highs above $71 last week. Traders are assessing the apparent progress in talks between Washington and Tehran and concerns about oil supplies across the crucial Middle East region have eased off. As prices have rolled back, Shell and BP have fallen by more than 2% in early trade.
Stocks on Wall Street are set for a broad slide as deep volatility roils the metals sector, oil prices roll back and tech sector weakness creeps back in. Investors are digesting Trump’s appointment of Kevin Warsh and expectations of a slightly more hawkish attitude from him compared to the other candidates who had been under consideration. Although interest rate cuts are still expected this year, if there’s a sharp return of inflationary pressures, the Fed looks more likely to hold. A higher interest rate environment can depress the value of future earnings and dent the allure of tech stocks. Concerns about AI demand holding up are also still swirling, which continue to put some pressure on high valuations.’’
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