Derren Nathan, head of equity research, Hargreaves Lansdown: “The FTSE 100 has slipped around 0.3% after recovering some ground on Wednesday. But despite some understandable nerves following the initial strikes against Iran, the index has gained a healthy 6.2% year-to-date, significantly outperforming global benchmarks. Overnight attacks on Iran, Israel and regional US bases paint a nervy backdrop for today. It’s too early to call whether Iranian forces are staging a last stand or are digging in. Outside of geopolitics, there are plenty of financial results to drive today’s market performance. In housebuilding and insurance, Taylor Wimpey and Admiral respectively came out with solid numbers for 2025, while signalling a more cautious outlook for this year.
Endeavour Mining, the Africa-focussed gold producer, has reported its annual results, continuing a strong track record of meeting guidance. A 10% increase in production and 38% in average prices received, more than offset an 18% hike in unit costs. That saw net earnings race ahead by 244% to $782mn. This strength has been reflected in nearly a 200% gain in the company’s market value over the last 12 months, and the shares have given back 2% at today's open. With production in 2026 expected to remain broadly stable and unit costs still heading up, shareholders will need pricing to stay strong to generate further earnings growth. But in times of feast, management is showing a balanced approach to capital allocation. Net debt is now di minimis, and Endeavour’s upped its promises on shareholder payouts based on the prevailing gold price. There’s also an ambitious exploration target in place of 12-15 million ounces of discoveries by the end of the decade.
Gold prices continue to recover from losses earlier in the week. However, there is likely to be further volatility ahead. The key driver for now is interest rate expectations with markets pushing their bets for a further rate cut in the US all the way out to September.
After a positive day yesterday, with both S&P 500 and NASDAQ markets up, falling US stock futures suggest that yesterday’s rebound may be short-lived. Weekly jobs data will deliver its usual double-edged message today. Initial jobless claims are expected to rise slightly to 215,000 this week, but that’s still lower than recent averages. On the one hand, that shows resilience in the economy, but with inflationary concerns being stoked by higher oil prices, the case for imminent reductions in Fed rates is far from cut and dry.
Brent Crude prices are up around 3% to around $84 per barrel, driven by continuing disruption in the Persian Gulf, and China’s order to suspend exports of refined products such as diesel and gasoline. However, a higher than expected 3.5 million barrel increase in US crude inventories underlines the potential for prices to quickly pull back if stability returns to the Middle East.
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