Investment - Articles - OBR increases CGT forecasts by c.£20 billion by 2030/31

In total, between 2025-26 and 2030-31, CGT is now predicted to collect £19.9 billion more in tax than estimated at the Autumn Budget. CGT receipts are now expected to raise to £34.9 billion in the tax year 2030-31, a £5.1 billion increase compared to forecasts made for the Autumn Budget.

 

Simon Martin, Head of UK Technical Services at Utmost, a leading global provider of insurance-based wealth solutions, commented: “Following record-breaking Capital Gains Tax receipts in January 2026, the OBR has now substantially uprated its projections for the rest of the decade by around £20 billion over the next six years. It demonstrates that, far from being a one-off consequence of asset disposals, the increased rates and other policy changes announced at the Autumn Budget 2024 are creating a significant, longer-term trend of accelerating CGT collections.

 

“The OBR also references rising equity prices as a key driver of expanding CGT receipts with returns around 8% higher than forecast at the Autumn Budget, further contributing to the increased tax take.

 

“CGT is no longer a marginal consideration in long-term wealth planning, and a tighter fiscal regime further increases the premium on forward planning. Entrepreneurs contemplating business sales, families managing intergenerational wealth transfers and globally mobile individuals with multi-jurisdictional assets will all need to reassess the timing and structure of disposals.”