When oil prices spike, the impact ripples quickly across the economy, pushing up transport costs, food prices and the cost of everyday goods. At the same time, economic growth in the UK remains sluggish with unemployment at a 5-year high, creating the uncomfortable conditions typically associated with stagflation.
British households have already weathered a succession of global shocks in recent years, from the Covid-19 pandemic to the war in Ukraine and global trade tensions, and many families are understandably wary of further pressure on their finances.
Maike Currie, VP Personal Finance at PensionBee, comments: “Geopolitical tensions can quickly ripple through financial markets, affecting everything from oil prices to share prices. While markets tend to recover from short-term shocks, the longer-term impact is often felt in household finances - through higher living costs and volatility in pension investments. When energy prices surge at a time of weak growth, it raises the risk of stagflation, which can make the economic outlook more challenging for families and investors alike.”
Here are five ways the latest escalation in the Middle East could impact your personal finances and pension.
1. Keep perspective on pensions
For those checking their pension app more frequently than usual, the first message is simple: don’t panic. Many people still worry that a large portion of their pension is invested in oil, but in modern workplace and personal pension plans, exposure to the oil sector is much smaller than it used to be.
Most pensions are invested in diversified funds across companies, sectors, and regions, designed to cushion the impact of shocks in any one part of the world. History shows that markets recover. From the global financial crisis to the war in Ukraine, sharp falls have eventually been followed by rebounds. Stay invested and maintain regular contributions - this will ensure your pension has time to recover and grow.
2. Inflation station:
Prepare for rising costs at the pump and supermarketIf conflict disrupts oil supply or global trade routes, energy prices are often the first to react. Higher oil prices can quickly push up petrol and diesel costs, which in turn drives up transport, food prices and the cost of general manufactured goods. This week Chancellor Rachel Reeves warned that the conflict in Iran could add pressure to inflation, raising the spectre of yet another cost-of-living crisis. For households already grappling with elevated living costs, rising costs could mean renewed strain on monthly expenses. The energy price cap will shield households from rising bills until the end of June, but petrol prices at the pump are already climbing ahead of the scheduled end of the fuel duty freeze first introduced in 2011. Rising inflation also complicates the outlook for interest rates, potentially delaying anticipated rate cuts. Practical steps such as reviewing household spending, topping up emergency funds and fixing energy or mortgage deals where appropriate may help cushion the impact.3. Adjust your pension drawdown strategy
For those approaching retirement - or already drawing an income - market volatility requires extra care. A sudden dip in your pension pot may mean reconsidering how much you withdraw. If you’re in drawdown, one option is to live off the natural income of your investments or any cash held within your pension, rather than selling investments at depressed prices.
If you’re in retirement, it’s sensible to hold enough cash to cover one to three years’ worth of essential expenses. This is because retirees typically have lower income and find it harder to rebuild cash savings once they dip into them, so a larger cash buffer gives greater financial resilience. When the market dips, this means that you can utilise these cash savings, or other investments first, so you can withdraw less from your pension when markets are down.
4. Rate cuts may be slower – good news for savers, bad news for mortgage holders
Throughout the Chancellor’s Spring Statement delivered last week, interest rates were framed in terms of their direct impact on households’ cost of living, mortgage repayments and savings. The speech made note of six interest rate cuts since the General Election, highlighting how these reductions have eased financial pressure for families and businesses. But this reprieve may now be short-lived - if conflict pushes inflation higher, central banks may be more cautious about cutting interest rates.
For savers, the good news is that rates on savings accounts could remain competitive for longer. For borrowers however - particularly the 1.8 million households expected to remortgage this year - it may mean mortgage rates stay higher than hoped, and could even rise if inflation spikes. Anyone coming to the end of a fixed-rate deal should review options early. Even small differences in rates can have a significant impact on monthly repayments.
5. Keep calm and carry on
The pandemic saw pension pots dip, only to recover far more quickly than many expected. Those who stayed invested were generally rewarded; those who moved to cash often missed the rebound.
While every crisis is different, the lesson remains consistent: reacting emotionally to short-term market movements can do long-term damage.
Maike Currie, VP Personal Finance at PensionBee adds: “Market ups and downs are part and parcel of long-term investing. For pension savers, this may show up as fluctuations in the value of their pension pot. While this can be unnerving, it’s important to remember that pensions are ultimately long-term investments, typically spanning decades. Over that time, markets have repeatedly demonstrated their resilience, recovering from wars, recessions, pandemics and political shocks.”
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