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The OBR’s latest fiscal risks and sustainability report estimates that State Pension spending is projected to rise from 5% of GDP to around 9% of GDP in the fifty years to 2075-76 driven by population ageing and the cost of triple-lock uprating (calculated based on historical inflation and earnings volatility). |
In a scenario where the State Pension is instead uprated in line with average earnings, spending reaches around 7% of GDP by 2075-76.
David Brooks, Head of Policy at Broadstone, commented: "The OBR's projections highlight a growing intergenerational challenge. While the Triple Lock has been successful in protecting pensioner incomes, the cost of maintaining that commitment falls on today's workers through higher taxation and borrowing.
“At a time when many pensioners are asset rich and younger generations face significant barriers to wealth accumulation, it is reasonable to ask whether universal increases remain the most effective use of public resources.
"The real policy question is not whether pensioners should be protected from poverty – they absolutely should be. It is whether taxpayer support should be targeted more effectively towards those who genuinely need it, rather than continuing to provide identical increases across the entire pensioner population regardless of income or wealth."
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