Pensions - Articles - Transfer Value Index hits third consecutive record low

 According to XPS Group's latest Scam Flag Index, 85% of cases reviewed by the XPS Scam Protection Service in May 2025 raised at least one scam warning flag, which was a small increase from the previous month. Although still elevated, scam warning flags remain below the peak seen in 2022, following the introduction of the new transfer regime.

 XPS Group’s Transfer Activity Index has fallen marginally over May 2025 to an annualised rate of 22 members in every 1,000 transferring their benefits to alternative arrangements. This is the first time since 2023 that the index has seen three consecutive months where the annualised rate has been greater than 0.2%. Whilst a small increase has been observed, activity levels remain significantly lower than prior to the gilts crisis of September 2022.

 Helen Cavanagh, Senior Consultant, XPS Group, said: "For the third consecutive month, we’ve observed a new month end low for the Transfer Value Index, which reflects continued increases in gilts yields, coupled with greater stability in long term inflationary expectations. Despite this, transfer volumes have stabilised over the past few months at a higher level than observed earlier in the year, albeit is at a much lower level than prior to the 2022 mini budget, when observed transfer values were significantly higher.”