Investment - Articles - Trump 2.0 one year on: Market winners and losers

Dan Coatsworth, Head of Markets at AJ Bell, comments:  “Tuesday 20 January 2026 marks one year since Donald Trump returned to the White House. It’s been a testing period for consumers and businesses to put it mildly, amid extraordinary levels of unpredictable behaviour by the president which have had consequences globally. Trump’s decisions have shaken up the status quo and put the world on a different path. Financial markets have been tested by a barrage of events and investors have had a lot to digest as Trump doles out new initiatives at a relentless pace. What’s interesting is how financial markets have often wobbled and then quickly resumed their upwards path during the first year of his second term. 

 

“Initially, it was down to the TACO view that ‘Trump Always Chickens Out’ and wouldn’t follow through on his policy decisions. More recently, Trump has shown greater determination and persistence, yet markets continue to stay resilient. Investors have typically followed the same pattern – initial shock at each new policy, then time to reflect, before recalibrating risk and rejigging portfolios. 

 

“Trump’s actions over the past year have, or stand to have, a profound impact on consumers, businesses, geopolitics, global trade, and more. While businesses have certainly been tested, they’ve had no choice but to adapt to the changing landscape and investors appear to have faith in many companies’ ability to keep growing earnings. 

 

“There have been clear winners and losers from Trump 2.0, with gold and defence contractors among the best places for investors to have made money. Bitcoin, and shares in oil companies and prison operators, have been among the losers despite being rated as potential winners when Trump won the presidential election in November 2024.

 

Concerns over excess supply have weighed on the oil price, and oil producers’ shares by default. Meanwhile prison operators saw a short-lived share price spike but couldn’t sustain the gains.  Here are four market winners and four market losers that have pleased and disappointed investors respectively since the US presidential inauguration on 20 January 2025.” 

 

“Investors can thank Trump for one thing – his chaotic second term is directly responsible for the soaring gold price. Aside from central bank purchases, demand has come from investors seeking to add so-called havens to their portfolios in the face of uncertainties. Trump’s policies have weakened the US dollar, which makes gold more affordable for buyers using other currencies. Sticky inflation has also led to more people buying gold as a natural hedge. 

 

“Shares in gold miners often rise by more than the appreciation in the gold price in a rising market. The higher the value of the metal, the greater the potential for gold miners to enjoy fatter profit margins and juicier cash flows. They were the hot trade in 2025 and Trump’s non-stop actions so far in 2026 have retained the sparkle in this part of the market. Gold has gone up by 70% since Trump returned to the White House. The iShares Gold Producers ETF, which tracks a basket of gold miners, has risen by 137%.” 

 

“The defence sector was already in vogue before Trump was re-elected as investors were troubled by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and what that meant for security elsewhere in the world. One of the first points on Trump’s agenda for his second term was pressuring NATO members to spend 5% of their GDP on defence, up from a traditional 2% guideline. He got his way and NATO leaders agreed to boost spending by 2035. The earnings outlook for defence companies suddenly looked a lot stronger and investors raced to buy relevant shares. 

 

“The US strikes on Venezuela at the start of 2026 and Trump’s desire to get a hold of Greenland gave the defence sector another leg-up as investors wondered if his actions would set a new precedent globally. The VanEck Defense ETF tracks a basket of defence stocks and has increased by 71% in value since Trump 2.0 began.” 

 

“Trump’s campaign efforts in 2024 to return as president included a pledge to help American companies do business more easily, such as through looser regulation. The banking sector is a key beneficiary of that approach, and investors have shown a lot more interest in this space because of his re-election. Share prices are driven by what investors think will happen in the future, not by what’s happened in the past. Anticipation of looser financial regulations improved sentiment towards banks, and it also helped that the big banking names reported decent earnings during 2025. 

 

“US banking regulation reforms should eventually free up trillions of dollars and boost profitability in the sector. Banks won’t have to hold as much capital, which means more money can be put to work through lending and investments. Some of the big US banking stocks have delivered twice the return of the broader market since Trump re-entered the White House. For example, Morgan Stanley has returned 38% and JPMorgan Chase has returned 27% since 20 January 2025.” 

 

“Investors holding UK and European shares have a lot to thank Trump for. Many people were shocked at his policies and chose to fish elsewhere in the world for investment opportunities. They looked for the cheapest markets and the UK and Europe fit the bill nicely. The FTSE 100 delivered its fifth best year in 2025 since the index launched in 1984. Germany’s DAX index also enjoyed a bumper performance thanks to greater investor interest as people seek US alternatives, together with a tailwind from big plans by the German government to spend on infrastructure and defence. 

 

“Investors who turned to Europe (including the UK) as the tonic from a radical shift in US policies were richly rewarded, with stronger returns than from the S&P 500. Since Trump’s inauguration day in 2025, the FTSE 100 has returned 23.3% and the DAX has returned 21.8%, compared with 17.8% from the S&P 500.” 

 

 

“So much for the all the fanfare around the US getting a pro-crypto administration. Bitcoin went bananas when Trump won the presidential election, and it enjoyed another rally during a risk-on period post-Liberation Day for the markets. The cryptocurrency has subsequently lost its mojo as investors piled into gold, with bitcoin moving in the opposite direction to the precious metal since September. That coincides with a shift in market sentiment, with investors starting to get the jitters around a potential AI bubble and whether it might burst. Many people took profits in assets that had done well as a result. Bitcoin has fallen 12% since Trump returned to the White House, leaving many investors who backed the cryptocurrency disappointed and frustrated.” 

 

“Trump’s second term will be defined by his aggressive stance on tariffs and how that turned global trade on its head. Many US companies buying goods from overseas found themselves in a difficult situation. US buyers either had to pay tariffs or seek alternative products from the domestic market, many of which would have been more expensive than what they’d paid in the past for imported ones. Certain industries coped well as customers simply paid the higher price. Others weren’t as lucky, such as sporting goods and athleisure. Nike was knocked for six as many of its shoes are made in China and Vietnam, who were both subject to large tariffs on goods imported into the US. The market panicked that demand would slump if selling costs went up a lot, and the shares tanked. 

 

“Lululemon was in a similar situation, exacerbated by the end of the De Minimis duty-free exemption on small parcels. Lululemon was heavily reliant on shipping e-commerce orders from Canada into the US, and the end of the tax perk meant costs jumped. Since Trump returned to the White House, Nike’s shares are down 7% and Lululemon’s shares have fallen 44%.” 

 

“At one stage, Elon Musk’s friendship with Donald Trump was seen as a major plus for Tesla, potentially opening doors to great things. Tesla’s shares jumped immediately after the election as Musk had already been lined up for a government advisory role should Trump win. However, there was soon a backlash against Musk and Tesla by people who didn’t support his association with Trump, and the fact he had outspoken political views and looked to be overstretching himself. After all, how could one person simultaneously do government work and run both Tesla and SpaceX? 

 

“Tesla was already struggling in the face of electric vehicle competition and the backlash against the CEO added further weakness for both sales and the share price. Making matters worse was Trump’s decision to withdraw electric vehicle tax credits earlier than planned, making it more expensive to buy a Tesla vehicle. Tesla’s shares are up a mere 5% under Trump 2.0 to date, less than a third of the return of the broader S&P 500 index. There is nothing ‘Magnificent’ about this performance for the once-lauded Mag7 stock.” 

 

“An astonishing $12 billion was wiped off the value of Kenvue between 5 September and 16 October 2025 thanks to negative statements from the White House. The Johnson & Johnson spin-off company was knocked after Trump claimed there was a link between the use of Kenvue’s Tylenol painkiller by pregnant women and an increased risk of autism in some children. That was despite scientific advice and medical opinion to the contrary. Kenvue said it ‘strongly’ disagreed with such allegations. While a takeover offer from Kimberly-Clark in November helped to repair some of the share price losses, it’s hard to ignore the reputational damage for Kenvue caused by the US president’s remarks.”