On 19 October, XPS’s Transfer Value Index fell to £149,100, the first time is has dipped below £150,000 since the immediate aftermath of last year’s mini budget. The Index rallied slightly to finish the month at £152,000, 3% lower than the end of September. This was lowest the month-end value that has been recorded since the Index was first published in 2018.
This decrease continues the downward trend of transfer values since June 2023.The primary driver for the further fall in transfer values is the continued increase in gilts yield paired with slightly lower long-term inflation expectations.
XPS’s Transfer Activity Index saw a small increase over October 2023, to an annualised rate of 22 members in every 1,000 transferring their benefits to alternative arrangements. The volume of activity over the past few months has stabilised, with only small incremental changes being observed.
84% of cases reviewed by the XPS Scam Protection Service in October raised at least one scam warning flag, according to XPS’s Scam Flag Index. This is only the second occasion since May 2022 that the index has fallen below 90%. This fall can be attributed to an increased number of members choosing to purchase immediate annuities, which may be due favourable pricing reflecting current market conditions. Since no investment decisions are required when purchasing annuities, such transactions are lower risk.
Commenting on the figures, Mark Barlow, Partner at XPS Pensions Group, said: “The combination of high gilt yields and lower long-term inflation expectations is driving down transfer values, making it a difficult time for anyone who wants to transfer out of their DB pension. Transferring could still be the right decision, particularly with attractive annuity rates available, but it’s crucial that pension scheme members are getting quality support and financial advice before making any decisions about how to access their pension.”
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