In the Atlantic, nine named storms have formed, but only Hurricane Isaias reached hurricane strength. The average between 1991 and 2020 was 14.4 named storms, 7.2 hurricanes and 3.2 major hurricanes (Category 3 or above). A more interesting statistic is the Atlantic Season’s Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), which stands at 18 on 14 October 2026, versus a full-season average of 123. While early-year predictions focus on the number of storms, it is the season’s ACE that is normally indicative of loss severity.
By 19 September 2026, the Atlantic had produced five named storms but no hurricanes, even though the climatological peak of the season had passed. Hurricane Isaias shattered the Atlantic peace and demonstrated why even a quiet season is not a harmless one. Isaias became the Atlantic season’s first hurricane 57 days later than average and was the latest first hurricane of the season since 1914. One of the most striking elements of Isaias was the rapid intensification, which is becoming a more common trait amongst recent hurricanes. Isaias saw its sustained winds increase by 40 mph in 24 hours. Despite hostile wind shear and unfavourable conditions, Isaias still was able to draw sufficient energy from record-warm Gulf temperatures to intensify into a major hurricane. While Isaias peaked as a Category 3 storm, its landfall site is the biggest determining factor in the impact on the insurance market, with recent estimates coalescing around the US$2bn range for the industry.
The subdued Atlantic season stands in sharp contrast to the highly active eastern and central Pacific, which was a tropical storm factory in 2026. The principal driver was the developing El Niño, where the unusually warm Pacific waters provided fuel for tropical cyclone formation and intensification. The ACE for the Pacific stands at 328, which is a record, with 22 tropical storms (average of 15), 11 hurricanes (average of 8) and nine major hurricanes (average of 4).
First was Hurricane Genevieve, which was 2026’s first Category 5 hurricane on 27 July, peaking at sustained winds of 160 mph, undergoing rapid intensification driven by near-record ocean temperatures. Mercifully, it remained offshore.
Hurricane Polo followed, again reaching Category 5 strength, intensifying to 180mph winds and recording a central pressure of 892mb, the second lowest ever recorded in the eastern Pacific.
In October, Hurricane Simon rapidly strengthened to 155 mph, peaking just below Category 5 intensity, while threatening Mexico’s Pacific coast.
The global picture in 2026 is therefore not one of uniformly reduced hurricane hazard, but of risk being redistributed between ocean basins. The Atlantic experienced unusually low ACE, while the Pacific produced multiple exceptionally intense hurricanes in an El Niño-enhanced environment. The insurance impacts of the 2026 storm season may be limited, but within the data there are trends that point to the increased prevalence of rapid intensification that means longer-term averages of major hurricanes are likely to increase, even if the overall number of storms remains the same. While insurers may draw a collective sigh of relief when the season is finished, these trends point to gathering storm clouds for the insurance markets focused on hurricane risk.
In Lloyd’s half-year results, within the positive 90.8% combined ratio, the 6.8% major claims ratio (against a long-term average of 10.4%) helped mask an increase in the underlying attritional loss ratio 2.8%. The largest contributor to growth of 6.9% in premium was from reinsurance (including direct and facultative), the sector most exposed to Atlantic catastrophe risk. The quiet Atlantic hurricane season is likely to increase pressure on the rating environment for the largest contributor to Lloyd’s growth, likely leading to further pressure on the underlying attritional loss ratio for 2027.
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