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Connecting business volume and volatility

A key challenge faced by capital modellers is how to appropriately connect changes in premium and reserve volume with the volatility parameters used in capital models. On a theoretical level, we know that volatility typically decreases as volume increases. Despite this, we regularly see modelling processes where the business volumes evolve and the parameters don’t. This article explores why volume and volatility aren’t well joined up and suggests a research-driven formula for quickly adjusting your volatility parameters as volumes change.
Posted on Monday Jun 17

Climate models and investing what is the issue

Join Senior Sustainable Investment Consultants Clare Keeffe and Jordan Griffiths as they discuss climate modelling, and the many myths that surround it. No doubt by now you have picked up the sentiment around climate modelling in 2024 – namely, that it is viewed as being unreliable when it comes to investment strategy planning. In our 30-minute webinar we examined the issues surrounding current climate modelling, the concerns of asset owners and asset managers, and how such models can be made more decision-useful for investors, allowing for strategic investment decisions to be made.
Posted on Friday Jun 14

Cutting your retirement cloth to fit your pension

Our local tailor has decided to retire. Not something which is usually newsworthy. However, Tarcisio is 88 years old. And he is still not ready to give up work. When interviewed for local TV news, he describes how his “heart is crying” at the thought of giving up work and although his mind is still young, he does not have the strength anymore. Tarcisio is not the only older worker who wants to carry on working.
Posted on Friday Jun 14

How everybody wins in a digitized insurance market

The transformative shift to digitization enhances efficiency and collaboration for commercial lines insurance, providing advantages for insurers, brokers and policyholders. Although the insurance industry has been relatively slow to adopt digitization, today we’re seeing brokers, carriers and the organizations they insure, converge in a digital marketplace. When this industry transformation comes to full fruition, we’ll see a level of collaboration — and efficiency and transparency — that we’ve never seen before.
Posted on Thursday Jun 13

Pass the Surplus to the Members Side

The government recently consulted on surplus sharing options for DB schemes. This is a positive step that should benefit multiple parties, and has consequences for trustees’ end-game management. In principle though, the trade-off is likely to be relatively simple- can you take a little more risk for a better return? Most UK DB schemes are now closed to new accrual, meaning that they will eventually run-off – whether that’s as they are, in the PPF, held by an insurer, or consolidated.
Posted on Wednesday Jun 12

ISPS 2023 valuation the initial results

The initial results of the 2023 valuation for the Independent Schools’ Pension Scheme (ISPS) reveal a significant deterioration in funding level, which could lead to Deficit Reduction Contributions (DRCs) tripling as a result. The ISPS Employer Committee (EC) recently wrote to all participating School’s to highlight the initial results of 30 September 2023 actuarial valuation.
Posted on Tuesday Jun 11

Longevity Pooling

We believe that pooling risk could benefit savers. We’ve previously outlined five key areas for the next government to address in order to position Collective Defined Contribution (CDC) as a vehicle to unlock these potential benefits. At the same time, we recognise the need to overcome the potential risks associated with CDC. In the interest of learning from the experience of others, we’ll look at different types of Canadian pension plans and instruments that involve longevity pooling, and explore how regulation impacted the formation of those solutions.
Posted on Monday Jun 10

Illiquid Asset Solutions

In a market landscape where affordability to buy-out is within reach for many pension schemes, insurers are innovating to support schemes with significant illiquid asset holdings. Host Roshi is joined by colleagues Jon Loach, Mat Webb and Summit Mehta to discuss the range of solutions available and explore some practical examples including L&G’s landmark 2023 transaction with the Boots Pension Scheme.
Posted on Friday Jun 7

Top ten challenges facing CROs in life insurance for 2024

With new regulation being introduced, arising external environmental changes and evolving risks, Niamh Carr looks at the biggest issues facing the Chief Risk Officer in 2024. As the world continues to evolve and undergo significant change, so too does the global life insurance industry. In order to prepare for a multitude of challenges, complex and wide ranging, Chief Risk Officers (CROs) have an increasingly pivotal role to play in ensuring their organisations are able to adapt.
Posted on Friday Jun 7

Global regulatory developments on investment management

UK asset management – the second largest asset management centre in the world, responsible for £11 trillion of mainstream assets, roughly half of which is managed for overseas clients – is a global success story for the UK. It is undoubtedly a sector where the UK holds a comparative advantage. It is one that, in addition to the 46,000 direct jobs and 80,000 indirect roles it sustains, holds the key to 75% of our wealth in retirement, and the liquidity on which investment in the real economy so often relies.
Posted on Thursday Jun 6

How can insurers help mitigate risks in the AI age

How do potential risks associated with artificial intelligence impact industries, and what does this mean for the insurance sector? Join Onur Yildirim, Senior Tech Strategy Manager at Swiss Re, and entrepreneur and technologist Antonio Grasso in this dynamic session. They will explore the evolving AI risk landscape and discuss how insurers can mitigate these risks while simultaneously creating tangible value from AI advancements.
Posted on Wednesday Jun 5

Geopolitics conflict elections and investment markets

Major geopolitical events are rarely out of the headlines, but as Matt Tickle examines, are they really driving movement in investment markets? Geopolitical concerns have arguably been at an elevated level for much of the past decade; however, these truly came into focus with the economic and financial disruption following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. These concerns have spread with the expanding conflict in the Middle East over the past nine months.
Posted on Wednesday Jun 5

The General Code and Proportionality and bought in pensions

Proportionality features prominently in the General Code. Considering the case of a fully bought-in scheme transitioning to buy-out illustrates why proportional shouldn’t be just “lighter touch”. One of the key themes running through the Pensions Regulators’ new General Code is that of proportionality. It is largely left to trustees to determine what this means and to explain, and if necessary justify, the approach they’ve taken in the context of their scheme’s circumstances. So, what does proportionality look like in practice?
Posted on Tuesday Jun 4

How does climate change impact human health around the globe

From record-breaking heatwaves to severe droughts, floods, and wildfires, climate change is reshaping our world and posing serious risks to human health. Global temperatures have risen by 1.14°C, the highest in 100,000 years, already straining health systems and reducing their capacity to protect public health. Christoph Nabholz, Swiss Re's Chief Research & Sustainability Officer, is joined by Ian Hamilton, Professor in Energy, Environment and Health at @UCLTV and Adrita Bhattacharya-Craven, Program Director of Health and Demographics at @TheGenevaAssociation. They look into how climate change is currently impacting health, the risks we face in the future, what this means for the insurance industry and the best strategies for mitigation.
Posted on Monday Jun 3

Keeping motor insurance costs down with data

Using everything within its power to keep the cost of motor insurance down is more important than ever for the insurance industry. Despite the welcome news that inflation is falling , most consumers are still feeling the pinch, prices are not falling, rather, they are rising more slowly. While real earnings showed an average positive annual growth rate for January 2024 , not every worker has received a pay rise, and the economic struggle remains.
Posted on Monday Jun 3

May 2024 Edition of the Actuarial Post Magazine

With Rishi Sunak calling for a summer election I wonder how this may affect the pensions policy agenda. It has left us wondering when or if last year’s Mansion House policy issues will pass into legislation. Indeed, TPR planned to lay the new funding code in June to enable it to come into effect for the September implementation date, this now seems extremely unlikely. Other issues will become clearer once we all know who will be forming the next Government and how their policies may or may not affect pensions.
Posted on Friday May 31

Pensions in 2035 beware the crystal ball

Given the introduction of the concept of the lifetime pension pot system, what does the future hold for the UK pensions system? Let's take a leaf from the book of Charlie Brooker, and take a Black Mirror-esque leap forward. The world a decade on. Truss is back, and Trump has taken it upon himself to abolish the two-term presidency rule. Society is fully cashless, physical bank branches are a distant memory and crypto is king. The NHS collapsed at the turn of the decade, the Westfield centre is social housing, and kids think terrestrial TV was something to do with aliens.
Posted on Wednesday May 29

The 2024 Insurance outlook the Impact of AI Part Two

EY EMEIA Financial Services Insurance Leader Phil Vermeulen speaks to Zurich Insurance Group’s EMEA CEO, Alison Martin, and Swiss Re's Global CEO for Property and Casualty, Urs Baertschi, to discuss the outlook for European insurers in 2024 and beyond. They explore the impact of AI, the industry's role in social and climate issues, including closing the global protection gap, and how insurers can meet changing customer expectations in a digital world.
Posted on Tuesday May 28

Scenario analysis of climate related financial risks

Financial institutions are increasingly looking to scenario analysis to assess the financial risks posed by climate change. While some firms have developed in-house scenarios, others utilize those produced by Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS), which are widely used across the industry. These papers follow growing criticism of current scenario analysis. Many of the issues and limitations raised echo those highlighted in publications such as the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries' (IFoA) Emperor’s New Climate Scenarios.
Posted on Tuesday May 28

Will general election call shake up pensions policy agenda

With the Prime Minister calling for a summer election, LCP Partner David Fairs looks at how this could affect the pensions policy agenda. What does the announcement of a general election do to the busy pensions policy agenda? Many of the significant policy issues announced in last year’s Mansion House speech require legislation and, with two days of Parliamentary time left, are unlikely to pass into legislation prior to the general election.
Posted on Friday May 24

Risk Transfer do more insurers mean more capacity

Nikhil Patel takes an in-depth look at current trends in the risk transfer market, including the implications of record-breaking demand and how new entrants could ease the capacity crunch. It’s an exciting time in the DB pensions risk transfer market; with record volumes of insurance transactions alongside increasing discussion on run-on strategies, government proposal on industry wide consolidation and a push for pension schemes to support the UK economy.
Posted on Thursday May 23

Aiming for calm seas in our market reforms

The size and scale of the UK financial sector is worth reflecting on. It employs more than 2.5 million people and produced £278bn of economic output, which is 12% of the entire UK’s economic output, contributing £100bn in tax revenue. Its importance is what fires me up every day while doing my job. So, an efficient and effective capital market underpins the success of the financial sector which is a mainstay of the UK economy.
Posted on Tuesday May 21

Murder on the LPI floor

DB schemes, by and large, are in a far healthier position than they have been for over a decade. This is good news, but it also changes the challenges they face. If you have a 20% chance of failure, you might be less worried about tail events because you don’t need to be in the tail to be in trouble. Just like you might worry less about developing Alzheimer’s if you’re in a war zone; if you only have a 1% chance of failing though, it makes sense to put far more thought into mitigating black swan events.
Posted on Monday May 20

Pension scheme cyber attacks are you prepared

The cyber threat to pension schemes specifically is increasing. The Capita data breach in 2023 is set to cost the organisation an estimated £107 million. Share prices have plummeted 54% since the attack and reputational damage has impacted both Capita and the affected schemes. That’s without even mentioning the impact on individual scheme members and those dealing with the incident. For trustees and scheme managers, it’s negligent to assume that just because nothing has happened to your scheme yet, nothing will.
Posted on Friday May 17

Is AI the new ESG

Over the past few years, ESG was all the rage. Proponents, opponents, and everyone in between seemed to be talking about this topic on an endless loop. That was certainly the case within the financial and executive liability insurance industry. Now, it appears to be AI’s turn to walk in the sun. Flaunting its efficiency, AI has reduced the current hot topic from three letters down to two, virtually surpassing ESG as the most talked about subject in the insurance industry.
Posted on Thursday May 16

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