Articles - Buyin to buyout navigating the post transaction bottleneck

By Beth Allison, Principal and Head of Post-Transaction and Wind-up, Barnett Waddingham

Source: Barnett Waddingham 2026 Insurer survey

This is perhaps not surprising given the sharp increase in the number of schemes transacting with insurers over recent years.  However, it brings sharper focus to a key question: how quickly are schemes progressing from buy-in to buyout, and how does that compare with the number of new buy-ins being written?

This highlights the ongoing challenge: while buy-ins are becoming increasingly common, the final steps to buyout and wind-up still require substantial time and preparation. Three years to buyout is becoming accepted as the current industry norm, as reflected by The Pensions Regulator in its recent modelling on the evolution of DB schemes.

There are, however, some encouraging signs. Almost a fifth of transactions written in 2023 and 2024 have already moved through to buyout, demonstrating that schemes can progress quickly, within one to two years, when they are well prepared and advanced with their data and benefits work.  This aligns with the patterns we are seeing across our own cases, where a quarter of our schemes in this 2023-2024 cohort have reached buyout.  Looking at older transactions, our focus on preparedness means all of the schemes BW advised that transacted in 2021 have already bought out, compared with only 54% across the wider market.

The buyout pipeline is set to keep growing in 2026.  While insurers project an increase in buyout capacity, Barnett Waddingham’s estimates suggest buy-in activity will surpass 400 transactions this year.  This means that 2026 is likely to be another year with more buy-ins than buy-outs, adding further volume to the pipeline of schemes progressing toward full buy-out and eventual wind-up.  As a result, the buy-out queue is projected to grow to more than 800 schemes.

It is worth noting that some schemes reflected in this buyout queue will have will have chosen to remain in a long-term buy-in and so will not place demands on insurers’ onboarding and administration capacity. However, most schemes are still expected to move directly to buyout in time. This makes it more important than ever for schemes to be well-progressed with data and benefit work in order to move smoothly through the post-transaction process and secure insurer capacity.

Encouragingly, many of these blockers are expected to reduce over time. As more schemes address data quality, benefit rectification and GMP equalisation before entering the market, the post-transaction journey should become smoother and more predictable. This supports our view that the most significant delays usually arise from scheme-side tasks rather than insurer capacity. 

As a result, schemes can expect a broader range of solutions and more capacity across the market in the years ahead.

Insurers are also introducing innovative ways to streamline the post-transaction journey, including insurer-led data-cleansing support, more standardised and simplified processes, and solutions such as direct insurer GMP equalisation implementation to shorten timescales. Together, these developments point to a market focused not only on increasing buyout capacity, but also on improving the overall experience and reducing friction for schemes preparing for buyout and wind-up.

Beth AllisonHead of Post-Transition and Wind-up, BW: "Our survey highlights that while well-prepared schemes can reach buyout in under two years, it is becoming increasingly common for schemes to take three to four years from buy-in to buyout. This experience is likely to persist for the foreseeable future, as reflected in the projected growth of the buyout queue over 2026. Although insurer capacity continues to expand and more schemes are addressing major data challenges such as GMP equalisation before transacting, these changes will take time to work through the pipeline. They may also be offset by an increasing number of smaller schemes that are expected to buy-in over the coming years, each requiring a similar level of fixed resource. One thing remains clear: schemes that progress fastest are those that are well-prepared, with a robust data and benefit cleansing plan and disciplined project management. In a market where competition for capacity is intensifying, expert support is critical to maintaining momentum and achieving a smooth and timely path to buyout and wind-up."

Post-Transaction Consultant Henna Ruparelia contributed to this article.