Author and IFoA Honorary Fellow Draper uses historical data to analyse the scale of the smoking problem in the UK. She looks at the potential that the UK Government’s proposed Tobacco and Vapes bill has for reducing rates of tobacco consumption.
Draper also considers what is needed beyond implementing the proposed bill for maximum impact, using insights from research carried out in New Zealand. This includes robust support measures, investment in stop smoking services, and public awareness campaigns.
The Tobacco and Vapes Bill was introduced at the 2023 King’s Speech and included as part of His Majesty’s speech in the newly formed Labour government. The goal is to achieve a smokefree England by 2030, where only 5% of the population would smoke. This would be achieved by restricting the purchase of tobacco products to anyone born on or after January 1 2009.
Smoking is a leading cause of preventable illness and death in the UK. The annual cost of smoking to individuals, public services, and the wider economy is £89.3 billion; equivalent to around 3.9% of GDP.
Nicola Draper, Author, Clearing the air: the UK’s plan for a smoke free generation, said: “There is no doubt that smoking has negative impacts on personal health and public finances.
“The UK Government’s proposed Tobacco and Vapes bill has the potential to go a long way to reducing the consumption and purchase of tobacco products and vaping. However, this will not be enough on its own to achieve the ambitious target of a smokefree England by 2030. There will need to be additional support measures in place such as investment in stop smoking services and public awareness campaigns to help make this goal a reality.”
IFoA President Kartina Tahir Thomson said: “The IFoA ‘Think’ series aims to encourage debate and discussion on a variety of areas of actuarial work. The series gives IFoA members and stakeholders alike a platform to share views and consider topics that are controversial and have no easy answers.
“The Tobacco and Vapes bill is an important area of discussion given the negative impacts the purchase and subsequent use of tobacco has on society. Nicola Draper’s expertise in the area of public health puts her in an excellent position to share her thoughts and analysis on this topic. This piece is a great example of how leading experts and IFoA members collaborate to explore in depth some of the most pressing issues facing society.”
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