CMI_2025 produces cohort life expectancies at age 65 that are about eight weeks higher for males and about six weeks higher for females than in the previous version of the CMI model, CMI_2024.
The CMI made significant changes to the method for CMI_2024 but has retained the same method for CMI_2025 apart from calibrating it to more recent mortality data.
The increase in life expectancy between CMI_2024 and CMI_2025 reflects low mortality in 2025. Standardised mortality rates in England & Wales have fallen each year since 2020. All-age mortality in 2025 was the lowest on record, and 2% below 2024. Mortality to date in 2026 has reached a new low for the time of year.
Mortality trends have varied by age and sex. Although mortality in 2025 reached record lows at pensioner ages, mortality for males aged 45-64 remained above the 2015-2019 average.
Cobus Daneel, Chair, CMI Mortality Projections Committee, said: “After a turbulent period for mortality during the pandemic, we have seen a return to more normal conditions. A fall in mortality in 2025 has led to a further increase in projected life expectancy. But while recent mortality has set new record lows, the outlook for mortality remains uncertain. We encourage users of our model to consider adjusting the model’s parameters to reflect their own portfolios and views on future mortality.”
Detailed results
Chart A shows standardised mortality rates (which allow for consistent comparisons of mortality over time) in the general population of England & Wales from 1985 to 2025. There was a pronounced steady fall in mortality until 2011, but falls were more modest from 2011 to 2019. The increase in mortality from 2019 to 2020 was exceptional, with mortality in 2020 returning to levels previously seen in 2008. Mortality fell between 2020 and 2025, reaching new record lows.
Chart B shows the progression of cohort life expectancy at age 65 in successive versions of the CMI Model. The figures for CMI_2025 are around eighteen months lower than in the first version, CMI_2009.
For more information on the CMI Mortality Projections Model, CMI_2025, please see the FAQs.
The CMI Mortality Projections Committee produces “mortality monitors” – with monthly summaries of emerging mortality and more detailed analyses quarterly.
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