The number of pensionable age people is also expected to grow from 12.4 million people in mid-2024 to 15.3 million people by mid-2049. The ONS projects there to be many more people at older ages by mid-2049, in part because of larger cohorts from the 1960s are now aged over 80 years, as well as general increases in life expectancy. Over the longer-term, lower assumed fertility affects the percentage balance between older and younger cohorts.
David Brooks, Head of Policy at Broadstone, commented: “Today’s population statistics further illustrate the UK’s ageing society, which will put pressure on economic growth, public finances and systems like the NHS, as fewer workers support more retirees – inevitably raising questions about the long-term sustainability of the State Pension.
“The ONS projects that the number of pensionable age adults will rise by nearly 3 million people while the number of over 85s is expected to double in both number and as a proportion of the total population. However, data released yesterday demonstrated that healthy life expectancy is falling in the UK raising important questions around how well prepared the UK is to cope with the social and economic impacts of an ageing population.
“Debates on single-issue matters like the State Pension risk missing more important issues around an ageing population. In practice, current policy trends are steadily shifting more risk onto individuals, and particularly onto workers and younger generations, who are being asked to save more, work longer, and manage more uncertainty over much longer lives.
“From a pension’s perspective, the core issue is not how much is spent, but how risk is allocated across generations, and at what point in the life cycle. Decisions about defaults, retirement pathways and flexibility increasingly determine who bears longevity, investment and later life risk - yet those intergenerational consequences are rarely made explicit.
“Looking ahead, the same tensions are likely to emerge even more sharply around long-term health and care costs, which risk becoming the next major intergenerational battleground if policy does not address how those risks are shared. As longevity rises, the quality of these choices will matter more than headline figures.”
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