The updates cover week 26 of 2023 (to 30 June) and the second quarter of 2023, based on provisional deaths data published for England & Wales by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on 11 July 2023, for Scotland by National Records of Scotland on 6 July 2023 and for Northern Ireland by Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency on 7 July 2023.
The mortality monitors have been updated to take account of the results of the 2021 census published to date by the ONS. The census changes our view of population estimates and leads us to increase our estimate of excess mortality.
The key points of the quarterly update are:
• In the UK, there have been around 200,100 more deaths from all causes than expected from the start of the pandemic to 30 June 2023. Of these, 75,600 occurred in 2020, 56,500 in 2021, 39,400 in 2022 and 28,500 in the first half of 2023.
• The second quarter of 2023 had excess deaths but at a lower level than the previous four quarters (see chart below).
• There were 4,600 deaths registered in the UK in the second quarter of 2023 with COVID-19 mentioned on the death certificate, which is around 60% of the total number of excess deaths in the second quarter of 2023.
The key points of the week 26 update are:
• The number of deaths registered in England & Wales in week 26 of 2023 was 452 higher than if mortality rates had been the same as in week 26 of 2019; equivalent to 5% more deaths than expected.
• The number of deaths registered in England & Wales with COVID-19 mentioned on the death certificate was 129 in week 26 of 2023.
Cobus Daneel, Chair of the CMI Mortality Projections Committee, said: “The second quarter of 2023 saw continuing excess mortality for the fifth quarter in a row, but at a lower level than the previous year.
“However, despite falling COVID deaths, mortality in 2023 is very likely to be higher than 2022.”
All mortality monitor weekly updates are publicly available on the mortality monitor page.
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