Breakthrough GLP-1 and metabolic health treatments have the potential to reshape future mortality trends. However, nearly nine-in-ten (88%) defined benefit pension trustees have not yet had the opportunity to assess the impact of this uncertainty on scheme liabilities, according to new Standard Life research.
With 75% of DB schemes in surplus on a low-dependence basis, these positions may come under pressure if mortality improves faster than expected, particularly given preventable mortality may not yet be fully reflected in long-term assumptions. Obesity is one of the UK’s leading risk factors for premature mortality, driving deaths through related long-term conditions.
While recent modelling studies suggesting GLP-1 treatments could under different scenarios, lead to reductions in mortality of around 1.8% to 5.1% over the longer term, outcomes vary widely and depend on uptake, access and long-term effectiveness.
In addition, Standard Life research shows that 69% of DB trustees have not yet had the opportunity to consider the impact of these weight-loss drugs on life expectancy and benefit payment.
Improved health outcomes could extend how long pensions are paid, creating new considerations for schemes approaching buy-in or buyout. Longer lifespans may also influence pricing, investment horizons and the long-term affordability of benefits, making it essential for trustees to understand the impact on future cashflows.
Longevity hedging tools, such as longevity swaps, remain an important tool for schemes that are not yet ready for buy-in, with many trustees now exploring the novation of existing swaps into future buy-ins to maintain flexibility and protection against future mortality shifts.
Claire Altman, Managing Director – Pensions Risk Transfer & Individual Retirement at Standard Life, said: “For many years, life expectancy assumptions were built around a relatively steady pattern of improvement, but that narrative has been challenged in recent years by the pandemic. While headline mortality rates are beginning to normalise, there is now greater uncertainty around future improvements, with healthy life expectancy at its lowest level since records began in 2011, at around 60 years old for men and women.5
“While health innovations could still support longevity gains, the outcomes are far less predictable than historic models suggest. Uncertainty itself is becoming a key risk factor, as trustees navigate a more complex and less predictable environment, particularly when thinking about long-term liabilities.
"While strong funding positions offer schemes some breathing room, they can change quickly if members live longer than expected. These dynamics can affect benefit duration, liability assumptions and the timing of derisking decisions, while increasing the complexity of modelling future outcomes, particularly for schemes with geographically diverse memberships. For schemes that are transaction ready, buy-in will remain the most effective way to secure long-term certainty for members, trustees and sponsors.”
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