Pensions - Articles - Inflation figure of 3.5% takes State Pension above £13,000

Less than half (49%) of UK adults believe the State Pension will be available to everyone when they retire, down from 51% in 2025, according to the Standard Life Centre for the Future of Retirement’s 2026 Standard Life Retirement Voice report.

 

The findings come as the immediate outlook for the State Pension moves into sharper focus, as September’s inflation figure of 3.5% confirms that average earnings growth of 3.9% will determine next April’s triple-lock increase. This will take the full new State Pension from £241.30 to around £250.70 a week, or just over £13,000 a year, for the first time.

 

However, while next April’s increase is now clear, the way the State Pension rises beyond the end of the decade is set to change. The Government’s new plans to adjust the triple lock from April 2030 will ensure the State Pension still rises by at least inflation or 2.5% each year and keeps pace with earnings over time. The plans also come alongside the Government’s third State Pension age review, which is considering life expectancy, fiscal pressures and the impact of future arrangements on those who rely most heavily on the State Pension.3 However, the triple lock announcement reflects uncertainty already evident among the public.

 

When surveyed shortly before the announcement, just 23% of 18- to 65-year-olds believed the triple lock would still exist by the time they retired, down significantly from 29% in 2025. Furthermore, more than a quarter (26%) thought it wouldn’t survive until their retirement, unchanged from last year, with Generation X the most sceptical at 34%.

 

Against this changing backdrop, Retirement Voice analysis also reveals that more than half (51%) of people expect to continue working beyond State Pension age, up from 49% in 2025. Millennials are the most likely generation to anticipate working later in life, at 58%. However, working longer will not be equally realistic for everyone. Previous research from the Standard Life Centre for the Future of Retirement found that 36% of those aged 60 to 65 who had not yet retired planned to work for longer because of the increase in State Pension age, while women in this age group were twice as likely as men to say the rise would have a major impact on their health.4

 

Almost half of future retirees expect standards of living to be worse than their parents, and half feel their retirement finances are driven mainly by factors outside their control

 

Retirement confidence is also under pressure as uncertainty around the State Pension comes against a broader backdrop of concern about financial security in later life. More than half (51%) of people worry their retirement savings and income will not last throughout retirement, up from 47% in 2024, while two in five (42%) expect their standard of living in retirement to be worse than it is today, compared with 38% in 2025. Almost half (45%) of those yet to retire also expect their standard of living to be worse than their parents’, up from 39% in 2025 and 33% in 2024.

 

At the same time, almost half (48%) of those yet to retire feel their retirement finances are driven mainly by factors outside their control, showing how economic uncertainty and unresolved policy questions can undermine confidence in planning for later life.

 

The projected rise will also take the full new State Pension just above the frozen Personal Allowance. While ministers have said people relying solely on the State Pension will be protected from small tax bills, those with modest additional taxable income could still be affected.5

 

For people approaching retirement on low incomes, there may be little financial room to save more or practical scope to remain in work for longer. Today, around one in five people aged 60 to 65 (22%) live in poverty – about 1.1 million people.6 Previous Standard Life Centre for the Future of Retirement research has highlighted the increase in ‘pre-retirement poverty’, in part due to the State Pension age rising since 2010.7 Furthermore, separate analysis8 also shows that the State Pension accounts for about 71% of income among the lowest-income fifth of non-working households with someone aged 66 to 70, underlining its importance to those with the fewest other resources.

 

Catherine Foot, Director of the Standard Life Centre for the Future of Retirement, commented: “The increase in the value of the State Pension will be welcome news for millions of pensioners, but this year’s Retirement Voice findings point to deepening uncertainty among those who aren’t yet retired. The triple lock has played an important role in improving pensioner living standards over the past 15 years, yet growing questions about its long-term affordability and fairness between generations have now resulted in a proposed change of direction from 2030.

 

“The announced change will reduce public spending, but the Government will need to keep a close eye on pensioner living standards, particularly among those most reliant on the State Pension. Whatever mechanism is used to increase it in future, maintaining confidence in the State Pension as the foundation of most people’s retirement income will be essential.

 

“This is a particularly important moment for Generation X. Many are approaching retirement with undersaving challenges and less access to defined benefit pensions than earlier generations. Working longer can improve retirement outcomes and will be part of the answer, but it may not be realistic for everyone, particularly those affected by ill health, caring responsibilities or limited opportunities in the labour market.

 

“The change to the triple lock therefore needs to be considered alongside broader decisions on the future State Pension age and the Pensions Commission’s work on retirement adequacy, including wider action to increase automatic enrolment contributions. The goal must be a system that remains sustainable and affordable while giving people clarity and a firm foundation on which to plan.”