Investment - Articles - Investment update on S&P's downgrade of Italy


 Yesterday, Standard & Poor's cut Italy's credit rating by one notch to A, from A+, with a negative outlook.

 The move is the rating agency's first downgrade of the Eurozone's third-largest economy since 2006. As for the reasons behind yesterday's decision, S&P noted Italy's "weakening economic prospects" and the difficulty of the "fragile governing coalition" being able to respond decisively to the debt crisis.

 Moody's also stated it would continue to review Italy's finances, although ultimately we expect them to follow S&P's lead and assign a lower credit rating to the country.

 Though we remain very cautious across the fixed income markets of Europe's southern periphery, especially Greece, Portugal and Ireland, we view the fundamental story for Italy as a little more constructive.

 Compared to these peripheral countries, Italy's fiscal position is more favourable, with relatively low levels of private indebtedness, and if the government successfully follows through on its plans for fiscal reform including, in full, the €60bn austerity programme which has recently been agreed by parliament, then this could go some way to achieving a balanced budget by 2013.

 However, the task ahead for the Italian Government ought not to be underestimated. Current plans require measures of institutional reform, revenue expansion and cost cutting to an extent never before executed within this economy - there are sure to be both successes and failures along the way and the prospect remains for a period of heightened volatility across all Italian risk assets.

 We do take some comfort from the European Central Bank continuing its buying programme of Italian (and Spanish) bonds though believe this is only a temporary measure ahead of the full ratification of the enlarged powers of the European Financial Stability Facility possibly in mid-October.

Back to Index


Similar News to this Story

IHT remains goldmine and set for record year as Budget looms
Just Group comment on the latest HMRC update showing that Inheritance Tax (IHT) receipts totalled £5.20 billion through the first seven months of the
Lots of noise but little signal from recent US data
Marcus Jennings, Fixed Income Strategist, Global Unconstrained Fixed Income, Schroders, explains why now the US government shutdown is over, we expect
Urgent need for investor action on sustainability
Rathbones convenes industry to address global challenges, from climate tipping points to modern slavery. First Group-wide Responsible Investment Summi

Site Search

Exact   Any  

Latest Actuarial Jobs

Actuarial Login

Email
Password
 Jobseeker    Client
Reminder Logon

APA Sponsors

Actuarial Jobs & News Feeds

Jobs RSS News RSS

WikiActuary

Be the first to contribute to our definitive actuarial reference forum. Built by actuaries for actuaries.