Life - Articles - Mortality rates at record low during second quarter of 2021

During the coronavirus pandemic, the Continuous Mortality Investigation (CMI) is publishing frequent UK mortality analysis through its mortality monitor. This update covers week 26 of 2021 (26 June to 2 July) and the second quarter of 2021, based on provisional England & Wales deaths data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on 13 July 2021.

 The key points of this update are:
 • The number of deaths registered in England & Wales in week 26 of 2021 was 1,018 lower than if mortality rates had been the same as in week 26 of 2019; equivalent to 10% fewer deaths than expected.

 • There have been around 97,300 more deaths from all causes than expected in the UK from the start of the pandemic to 2 July 2021. Of these, 24,300 have occurred in 2021.
 • The number of deaths with COVID-19 mentioned on the death certificate was 109 in week 26 of 2021, compared to 99 in week 25 of 2021.
 • Our quarterly monitor, also published today, shows that average mortality rates for ages 20-100 were 1.09% during Q2 of 2021, compared to 1.18% in Q2 of 2019, the previous low.
 • The quarterly monitor also includes additional analysis by age which shows contrasting experience between those under and over 65, with only the latter group experiencing low mortality in Q2 of 2021.

 Cobus Daneel, Chair of the CMI Mortality Projections Committee, said: “All cause mortality rates during the past quarter have been lower than in any previous second quarter by a significant margin.

 “While the number of COVID-19 cases has continued to rise rapidly, the increase in deaths linked to COVID-19 has been more modest.

 This weakening of the link between cases and deaths is likely a result of the vaccination programme.”

 All mortality monitor weekly updates are publicly available on the mortality monitor page.

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