The survey reveals that nearly 160 schemes converted their buy-ins to a buyout in 2025, a 30% increase on the previous year. Insurers are projecting this figure to almost double in 2026, with around 300 schemes expected to reach buyout. However, with buy-in activity forecast to exceed 400 transactions in 2026 alone, the pipeline of schemes yet to complete is set to grow to more than 800.
BW’s data shows that the journey from buy-in to buyout continues to take considerable time for most schemes. Of transactions completed in 2021, just over half have now reached buyout, meaning almost half have been in the process for four or more years without yet crossing the finish line.
Around half of 2022 transactions have completed within three years, a timeline that is increasingly being recognised as the industry standard, and one referenced in The Pensions Regulator's (TPR) own modelling on the future of DB schemes.
More recently, the numbers drop sharply: only 28% of 2023 transactions have transitioned to buyout to date, falling to 9% for 2024.
Despite the broader picture, BW's findings highlight that speed is achievable. Almost a fifth of transactions written in 2023 and 2024 have already reached buyout within one to two years, demonstrating what is possible when schemes arrive at the process with data and benefits work already in strong shape.
This mirrors patterns seen across BW's own caseload, where a quarter of schemes in this 2023-2024 cohort under its management have reached buyout. Looking at the older transactions, BW’s focus on preparedness means that all of the schemes BW advise that transacted in 2021 have bought out already, compared with only 54% across the whole sector.
Beth Allison, Head of Post-Transaction and Wind-Up, Barnett Waddingham, said: “Our survey highlights that while well-prepared schemes can reach buyout in under two years, it is becoming increasingly common for schemes to take three to four years from buy-in to buy-out. This experience will likely persist for the foreseeable future, as reflected in the projected growth of the buyout queue over 2026.
“Although insurer capacity continues to expand and more schemes are addressing major data challenges such as GMP equalisation before transacting, these changes will take time to feed through the pipeline. They may also be offset by an increasing number of smaller schemes that are expected to buy-in over the coming years, each requiring a similar level of fixed resource.
“One thing remains clear, schemes that progress fastest are those that are well-prepared, with a robust data and benefit cleansing plan and disciplined project management. In a market where competition for capacity is intensifying, expert support is critical to maintaining momentum and achieving a smooth and timely path to buyout and wind-up.”
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