By Caroline Elliott-Grey, senior product manager, U.K. and Ireland, LexisNexis Risk Solutions
As climatic events intensify, subsidence—the gradual sinking or collapse of land beneath buildings, poses an increasing threat to homes across the U.K.
But as environmental risks accelerate, so does the opportunity for insurance providers to evolve their approach to assessing property risks. Geospatial intelligence data is rapidly becoming an essential tool as the market adapts. It is helping insurance providers price, manage and prevent risk with a greater degree of precision – particularly for a risk like subsidence, which is so sensitive to both climate conditions and to local soils.
An Increasing Financial Risk
Insurance providers paid out £886 million in Q1 2025 on domestic property insurance claims—20% up year-on-year, according to ABI data . Within that was a steep increase in weather-related claims caused by events such as Storm Eowyn, the most severe windstorm to strike the UK in more than a decade.
While flooding and wind damage make the headlines, subsidence can be a quiet and costly menace. In 2022 – a surge year for subsidence claims - insurers were expected to pay out £219 million in claims , largely attributed to the extreme heatwaves experienced during the summer. In Q2 2023, subsidence payouts reached £54 million , likely due to the previous summer. Then in Q3 2024 subsidence claims rose to £66 million – this was a 61% increase compared to Q3 2023 . Interestingly, this was following the coolest summer on record since 2015 .
These figures highlight the growing impact of climate change on subsidence risks in the UK. As weather patterns become more extreme, insurance providers are facing increased claims related to ground movement. Utilising geospatial intelligence and real-time data can aid insurers in better assessing and managing these evolving risks.
With climate predictions for hotter, drier summers and wetter winters , the danger of clay soil shrinkage, one of the main causes of subsidence, is rising rapidly.
LexisNexis® Risk Solutions analysis based on British Geological Survey data, shows that by 2050 a further 1.2 million English homes will be at risk of subsidence—a 27% increase from the 4.5 million properties currently at risk. The Oxford-Cambridge arc, among other places, where substantial housing development is planned, will be particularly impacted.
From Reactive to Proactive: Why Geospatial Intelligence Data Matters
Previously, the insurance industry has relied on postcode-level risk ratings and historical claims. But with a changing climate and increasing housing density, insurance providers need to assess risk at the individual property level and in real time.
This is where geospatial intelligence really comes into its own. Tools like LexisNexis® Map View allow insurance providers to view, at a glance, where the risk of subsidence is greatest—and how that aligns with their existing portfolios. Such systems rely on multiple layers of data, including:
• Soil type and clay content
• Tree cover and proximity
• Property age and construction including the possible presence of a basement
This creates a granular view of the risk for each property for pinpoint pricing accuracy. Rather than rating based on postcode averages, insurance providers can provide personalised quotes based on a home's exact exposure—even down to the foundations of a property and whether it may have a basement.
Visualising the Risk
Through geospatial data visualisation, insurance providers can map accumulations of risk, better informing underwriting, pricing, and reinsurance decisions. A cluster of high-risk buildings in a suburban development zone like Milton Keynes, for instance, can be pinpointed long before claims begin to mount.
This matters since subsidence is a creeping issue. Unlike flood or storm damage, which is immediate, ground movement occurs slowly—so its initial warning signs can be ignored. By uncovering where the risk might exist, insurance providers are in a better position to alert customers to early warning signs; recommend preventative action (e.g. pruning or properly maintaining trees in close proximity); and identify properties for further screening before offering cover.
The Human and Financial Stakes
On average, a subsidence claim has reached £11,000 . Yet beyond the expense, the stress that's placed on householders—especially those who are completely unaware their home is built on vulnerable ground—can be enormous. For insurance to be sustainable and cost-effective, the industry must utilise all tools available to it to price risk accurately, and to allow customers to act early—when repair work is far less expensive and disruptive.
Educating Policyholders, Empowering Insurers
With a clear understanding of a property's subsidence profile, insurers are in a stronger position to engage in positive discussion with customers. Rather than reacting to damage, they can offer guidance on issues such as detecting wall cracks or sloping floors; managing tree growth near foundations; and seeking professional advice early. These educational programs not only build trust and loyalty but also reduce claim levels over time.
Looking Ahead: Preparing for the Inevitable
As climate change permanently alters the risk landscape, insurance providers are increasingly looking for better tools to manage the growing threat of subsidence. With the UK witnessing longer dry spells and more housing developments, geospatial intelligence data will be the difference between reactive insurers and those that lead the market with foresight.
It is time to embrace a data-driven approach. Not only will it improve operational effectiveness and pricing accuracy—it will assist in keeping the safety net of insurance intact for the millions of homeowners at risk.
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