U.S. financial system is more "damp firewood" than "dry tinder" says BNY Mellon's Hoey
“Subcycle inflation peak” expected in many countries later this year
"We believe that the U.S. currently has more of a ‘damp firewood' financial system than a ‘dry tinder' financial system, which implies only gradual strengthening of credit-financed spending," says BNY Mellon Chief Economist Richard B. Hoey in his May 2011 Economic Update.
"While global inflation pressures are rising, this is occurring after a period of disinflation and we expect a ‘subcycle inflation peak' later this year in many countries," Hoey continued. Important subcycle fluctuations Hoey expects include:
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A V-shaped pattern in the Japanese economy;
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A drop and then a rebound in auto production;
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A moderate subcycle cooling in the industrial sector in the next few months, and
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An inflation surge with many countries likely to reach a "subcycle inflation peak" later this year.
Hoey expects cyclical expansion to be sustainable even as many economies experience a short subcycle slowdown in the industrial sector following the recent phase of an unsustainably rapid surge in industrial production at a time of higher energy prices and some policy tightening.
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