By Caroline Elliott-Grey, senior product manager, U.K. and Ireland, LexisNexis Risk Solutions, Insurance
It had a sustained flame length of more than 1.5 metres, it required a committed resource of at least 4 fire and rescue service appliances or resources, it required resources to be committed for at least 6 hours, or it presented a serious threat to life, environment, property and infrastructure .
However, from 1st January to mid-June 2025, fire and rescue services in England and Wales had already responded to 564 wildfire incidents, a 717% increase compared to the same period in 2024, doubling the number seen by June 2022 . And by April, satellite data showed that over 29,200 hectares (113 sq miles) had already been burned — exceeding the total UK wildfire area for any year in over a decade, with 2025 surpassing 2019’s record of about 28,100 .
The UK experienced its driest spring in over 50 years, followed by three significant heatwaves, pushing temperatures above 30 °C and triggering record fire risk levels. Spring conditions created an abundance of dry, dead vegetation—ideal fuel for wildfires across moorlands, grasslands, hedgerows, and even woodlands.
The NFCC has warned of changing fire seasons, more frequent incidents at the rural urban boundary, and a lack of long term funding and national wildfire strategy. We must not forget that in 2022, 18 homes were destroyed by a wildfire in East London .
While wildfires are more common in Europe, current climate change predictions indicate that conditions will become more favourable for wildfires in future . The wildfire in France this July resulted in 400 people being evacuated from their homes .
Hotter and drier summers create ideal conditions for increased fire risks, whilst milder and wetter winters will encourage plant growth, which can then act as a fuel for fires when conditions dry out.
It is natural to link wildfires with the tinderbox conditions of a hot summer, but it is not only weather that affects trends in wildfires, controlled burning poses another risk. Licenses are required depending on the scale of the operation but, as the permitted season runs from October to March, controlled burning early in the year can lead to more wildfires in spring .
Indeed, data from LexisNexis® Risk Solutions clearly shows that while the summer of 2018 recorded 1,800 incidents, the highest number of fires in the last ten years, the number of wildfires occurring in spring is otherwise consistently higher than in summer. Notably in 2019 when there were just over 1,600 spring wildfires, compared to just over 400 in summer .
LexisNexis® Risk Solutions data analysis also reveals that wildfires can spike on certain days of the year. While on November 5th no-one would be surprised to see more urban fires, fires on agricultural and bog/marsh landmasses, where wildfires could spread, also increase . A similar pattern prevails on 12th July in Northern Ireland on Orangeman’s Day.
As data reveals that the ‘wildfire season’ is far less predictable than first imagined, and forecasters predict increasing hot summers in the UK , what can be done to mitigate the risk from an insurance perspective?
Knowing exactly when and where wildfires have occurred in the past can help inform insurance providers, giving vital indicators of future susceptible areas and times of year wildfires might occur going forward. The data analysed by LexisNexis Risk Solutions was collected by satellite Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) SUOMI. VIIRS looks at defined areas and captures thermal Infrared radiation emitted by fires, measuring brightness. By monitoring fire risks and their changes, insurance providers can connect wildfires and other attributes, like distance to a fire station, and to fire risk models.
Climate change and changing land use patterns mean that the UK faces an emerging threat of wildfires which could be similar to those witnessed across southern Europe . While UK authorities work on improving prevention, education and improved response, insurance providers can help protect themselves and their policyholders by using data enrichment on wildfire risk for an individual property, a portfolio of risks or a whole geographical area, to support fair and accurate pricing decisions.
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