Douglas Anderson, Founder of Club Vita, comments on the figures: “Analysing the range of data across each of the four UK nations we expect the increase in deaths to be over 60% higher than the numbers that have been quoted by Downing Street. But that is only part of this depressing story. Deaths which do not mention Covid-19 on the death certificate have also risen sharply in recent weeks, suggesting material underreporting. As a result, we sadly expect that the true number of deaths to be attributed to COVID-19 is closer to 50,000 lives.
“Looking at recently published data from the UK’s national statistics agencies we identified that including deaths where COVID-19 is mentioned on the death certificate, regardless of location, is likely to increase the deaths linked to COVID-19 by over 60%. Put another way, this probably means that we have already seen some 34,000 deaths directly linked to Covid-19.
“Deaths which do not mention COVID-19 on the death certificate have also risen sharply in recent weeks. These include deaths from those who haven’t sought medical help, have had treatment delayed and have not been tested for COVID-19. These “missed” deaths, indirectly related to COVID-19, could account for a further 16,000 deaths looking at current death rates taking the total to 50,000.
“As greater detail emerges on the causes of death being listed on death certificates we may get more clarity. Meanwhile, these are sadly deaths which may have been avoidable, or would otherwise have not have happened for many months/years, were it not for COVID-19. The challenge ahead is, of course, to continue to save lives; not just those in hospital who have tested positive for COVID-19 but also those who are at risk of being added to the “missing” and “missed” deaths.”
An explanation of the analysis:
Why is this?...
• the statistics published daily at https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-the-public only reflect some Covid-19 deaths, even after yesterday's inclusion of care home deaths
• this is because they focus on deaths where the individual tested positive for Covid-19 and there are delays in the reporting of deaths
• latest data from ONS (and other national statistics) identifies deaths where Covid-19 is mentioned on the death certificate; Club Vita analysis suggests that including these deaths brings the death toll to over 34,000
On top of this...
• the numbers dying each week where Covid-19 is not mentioned on the death certificate have also spiked up since the pandemic took hold and are much higher than usual for this time of year
• Club Vita estimates 16,000 such deaths thus far
• it seems likely these deaths are indirectly linked to Covid-19
Putting this together: the tragic loss of life owing to Covid-19 thus far is over 50,000 Britons
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