Articles - U.S. financial system more 'damp firewood' than 'dry tinder'


  U.S. financial system is more "damp firewood" than "dry tinder" says BNY Mellon's Hoey
  
 “Subcycle inflation peak” expected in many countries later this year
 "We believe that the U.S. currently has more of a ‘damp firewood' financial system than a ‘dry tinder' financial system, which implies only gradual strengthening of credit-financed spending," says BNY Mellon Chief Economist Richard B. Hoey in his May 2011 Economic Update. 
 "While global inflation pressures are rising, this is occurring after a period of disinflation and we expect a ‘subcycle inflation peak' later this year in many countries," Hoey continued.  Important subcycle fluctuations Hoey expects include:
     
  •   
       A V-shaped pattern in the Japanese economy;
     
  •  
  •   
       A drop and then a rebound in auto production;
     
  •  
  •   
       A moderate subcycle cooling in the industrial sector in the next few months, and
     
  •  
  •   
       An inflation surge with many countries likely to reach a "subcycle inflation peak" later this year.
     
 Hoey expects cyclical expansion to be sustainable even as many economies experience a short subcycle slowdown in the industrial sector following the recent phase of an unsustainably rapid surge in industrial production at a time of higher energy prices and some policy tightening.  
 See www.bnymellon.com/foresight/pdf/update.pdf for Hoey's complete May 2011 Economic Update.

Back to Index


Similar News to this Story

New strategic options for DB pension schemes
The next phase of Mansion House reforms is upon us! On 23rd February the government published a consultation on proposals that will open up two new st
Five Hundred Twenty Five Thousand Extra In Interest
The aim of raising interest rates is to slow down the economy, by reducing demand and making financing more expensive. This makes sense as a mechanism
Next steps with the General Code
Whether you have already completed initial assessments or are starting the work now, this webinar from Barnett Waddingham will take you through the ne

Site Search

Exact   Any  

Latest Actuarial Jobs

Actuarial Login

Email
Password
 Jobseeker    Client
Reminder Logon

APA Sponsors

Actuarial Jobs & News Feeds

Jobs RSS News RSS

WikiActuary

Be the first to contribute to our definitive actuarial reference forum. Built by actuaries for actuaries.