By Paul Leandro, Partner, Head of People Risk, Barnett Waddingham
AI adoption is accelerating, but so is workforce disruption
Our survey of 500 senior HR and business leaders shows that AI-driven efficiencies are reshaping headcount far earlier than many predicted. Almost one in five employers (18%) have already made mid-level roles redundant as a direct result of AI, with junior (17%) and senior (15%) roles also affected.
Crucially, this shift is not isolated to specific industries or organisation sizes. The trend suggests a structural workforce change rather than a temporary adjustment.
While automation is delivering the intended productivity gains, it raises an important question for leadership teams: what happens when the roles most affected by AI are the very ones that traditionally build future capability?
A growing concern: the erosion of the talent pipeline
Two-thirds of employers (66%) are worried that as AI takes on more routine or entry-level tasks, new entrants will miss out on the foundational experience typically gained early in their careers. This matters because junior roles have long been the engine of organisational development where employees learn judgement, context, and the practical understanding needed to progress into senior leadership.
Without deliberate redesign, the disappearance of these roles risks creating a long-term talent vacuum, leaving businesses with fewer qualified candidates to step into mid- and senior-level positions in the future.
When combined with other pressures – reduced availability of overseas talent, declining birth rates, and rising long-term sickness – the UK faces a potentially serious shortage of future-ready skills.
AI is an enabler, not a substitute
As outlined in our Britain's Got Talent article, AI must be an enabler, not a substitute for a skilled workforce. The employers who gain the most from automation will be those who redesign roles so people and AI can work in unison, strengthening capability rather than eroding it.
This is a pivotal message for HR and reward leaders. AI is not simply a tool for cost savings; it is a catalyst for redefining how work gets done. The organisations that succeed will be those that treat this moment as an opportunity to modernise their talent model.
Redesigning roles for an AI-augmented workforce
To avoid fragmentation of the talent pipeline, HR leaders should focus on three strategic priorities:
1. Rebuild early-career pathways, not remove them
Junior roles must evolve rather than disappear. Designing hybrid early-career roles where employees use AI tools while still developing core professional skills will be essential for long-term succession planning.
2. Shift capability development toward judgment, oversight, and applied skills
As automation takes over routine tasks, human capability must move up the value chain. Organisations should invest in skills such as problem-solving, contextual decision-making, creativity, and effective AI supervision.
3. Use workforce data to make long-term talent decisions
The most resilient businesses will be those using data-led insights to map future skills gaps, assess workforce risks, and plan for the leadership needs of the next decade, not just the next budget cycle.
If you’re looking to stress-test workforce change, understand people and operational risks, and build a more resilient organisation, explore Howden Risk Advisory.
Explore the full insights
These findings are part of our broader research into how UK businesses can build resilient, future-ready workforces in an era of rapid technological change.
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