Articles - Will COVID19 keep excess mortality rates high until 2033


Sergio Jimenez Lopez, Head of Life & Health Research Forecasting, delves into the long-term impact of COVID-19 on excess mortality rates. He explains that despite the pandemic's shift to an endemic phase, COVID-19 continues to be a significant driver of elevated death rates globally. Our latest analysis reveals that estimated excess mortality in 2023 was between 3% to 7% in the US and 5% to 8% in the UK. Sergio outlines two scenarios for the future: an optimistic one predicting a return to pre-pandemic mortality rates by 2028, and a pessimistic one where excess mortality could remain as high as 3% in the US and 2.5% in the UK by 2033.

 

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