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Terrorism modelling has evolved from exposure mapping to scenario-based and probabilistic approaches. Human behaviour and changing threats make terrorism inherently difficult to model with precision. Richer data, AI and greater computing power are enhancing how terrorism risk can be assessed. Combining historical data, exposure analytics and modelling can support more informed risk decisions. Terrorism remains one of the more difficult risks for the global insurance industry to quantify.
In a recent YouGov Poll, [1] [2], around 16,000 US and 5,000 UK adults were asked whether they would rather receive a guaranteed 50,000 or take a 50% chance of winning one million (dollars in the US and pounds in the UK). The results are striking with 65% of Americans and 73% of Britons opted for the guaranteed payout. In both countries, men on average were more likely than women to take the gamble. One possible reaction is to dismiss the results as evidence that people are perhaps poor at calculating expected values.
Ruston Smith, Chair of the Pensions Management Institute, argues that unlocking greater pension investment in private markets will now depend less on targets and mandates and more on governance, operational capability and a stronger and sustainable pipeline of new rather than re-cycled investable opportunities - highlighting the potential role of InvestConnect in connecting pension capital with UK growth, by creating a UK shop window of opportunities.